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Should the U.S. change its policy on the Taiwan Straits?<br />By Chris Hansen<br />
History of the Taiwan Strait<br />111 mile strait between China and Taiwan<br />China-Taiwan debate<br />Peoples Republic ...
History of the Taiwan Strait<br />U.S.-ROC Defense Treaty (1954)<br />Taiwan Relations Act (1979)<br />Passed after establ...
History of the Taiwan Strait<br />First Taiwan Strait Crisis (1954-1955)<br />Conflict between PRC and ROC “Taiwan”<br />P...
History of the Taiwan Strait<br />Second Taiwan Strait Crisis (1958)<br />Continuation of First Taiwan Strait Crisis and t...
History of the Taiwan Strait<br />Third Taiwan Strait Crisis (1995-1996)<br />PRC conducted missile tests surrounding Taiw...
Solution 1<br />Abandon strategic uncertanty and specify in advance US defense commitment to defend Taiwan<br />
Solution 2<br />Abandon strategic ambiguity and declare that the US will punish whichever player first moves to upset the ...
Solution 3<br /> Continue to be ambiguous about US commitment to defend Taiwan. In this paper, we develop a game-theoretic...
My Recommendation<br />Solution<br />
Bibliography<br />http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/quemoy_matsu.htm<br />http://www.cgsc.edu/carl/download/csipu...
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Taiwan strait

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Taiwan strait

  1. 1. Should the U.S. change its policy on the Taiwan Straits?<br />By Chris Hansen<br />
  2. 2. History of the Taiwan Strait<br />111 mile strait between China and Taiwan<br />China-Taiwan debate<br />Peoples Republic of China (PRC)<br />Republic of China (ROC) = “Taiwan”<br />Taiwan Strait Crisis(es)<br />
  3. 3. History of the Taiwan Strait<br />U.S.-ROC Defense Treaty (1954)<br />Taiwan Relations Act (1979)<br />Passed after establishment of diplomatic relations with PRC and Beijing<br />Breaking off of relations with ROC re defined the American position on Taiwan.<br />U.S. doesn’t recognize the PRC vs. ROC terminology<br />Act provides Taiwan to be treated under U.S. International laws<br />One-China Policy (1992)<br />Policy that views China as a single state despite two separate governments.<br />Both PRC and ROC honor the policy however both disagree about which state is legitimate.<br />
  4. 4. History of the Taiwan Strait<br />First Taiwan Strait Crisis (1954-1955)<br />Conflict between PRC and ROC “Taiwan”<br />PRC took over the Yijianghan Islands forcing the ROC to abandon the Tachen Islands.<br />The U.S. Navy helped evacuate ROC forces back to the Taiwan mainland.<br />Quemoy and Matsu Islands became ROC first line of defense against the Communist Party of China.<br />
  5. 5. History of the Taiwan Strait<br />Second Taiwan Strait Crisis (1958)<br />Continuation of First Taiwan Strait Crisis and the conflict between PRC and ROC “Taiwan”<br />Artillery battle – 2,700 killed<br />U.S. Offered Aid to ROC under U.S.-ROC Defense Treaty.<br />Air battle featuring the F-86 vs Chinese MiGs<br />Crisis lasted 44 days = Stalemate <br />PRC called for peaceful solution to the Taiwan issue<br />
  6. 6. History of the Taiwan Strait<br />Third Taiwan Strait Crisis (1995-1996)<br />PRC conducted missile tests surrounding Taiwan<br />Missiles were intended to send a strong message to the ROC (because Lee-TengHui was moving ROC foreign policy away from the One-China Policy.)<br />Response to 1996 election build-up<br />U.S. responded by sending naval fleet into the Taiwan Strait<br />Display to the PRC that the US was ready, willing, and able to defend Taiwan<br />Honor the Taiwan Relations Act<br />
  7. 7. Solution 1<br />Abandon strategic uncertanty and specify in advance US defense commitment to defend Taiwan<br />
  8. 8. Solution 2<br />Abandon strategic ambiguity and declare that the US will punish whichever player first moves to upset the status quo.<br />
  9. 9. Solution 3<br /> Continue to be ambiguous about US commitment to defend Taiwan. In this paper, we develop a game-theoretic model to study the conditions under which an ambiguous security commitment can actually work to preserve the status quo by preventing both China and Taiwan from provoking each other<br />
  10. 10. My Recommendation<br />Solution<br />
  11. 11. Bibliography<br />http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/quemoy_matsu.htm<br />http://www.cgsc.edu/carl/download/csipubs/bjorge_huai.pdf<br />http://www.usnwc.edu/Publications/Naval-War-College-Press.aspx<br />

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