Policy Seminar “Boserup and Beyond Mounting Land Pressures & Development Strategies in Africa” at IFPRI on 4 September 2014. Presentation by Milu Muyanga, Assistant Professor, International Development Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Michigan State University.

1. HOW DOES RISING RURAL POPULATION DENSITY
AFFECT SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE?
EVIDENCE FROM ETHIOPIA, KENYA & MALAWI
Milu Muyanga, J. Ricker-Gilbert , D. Headey, A. L.
Josephson, T.S. Jayne
Presentation at the Food Seminar at IFPRI, September 4, 2014,
IFPRI Headquarters , Washington DC, USA
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Photo: Christiaensen and Demery (2007)

2. Motivation
• Population densities in many sub-Saharan Africa are
much higher than they were two decades ago
• The rising rural population densities are profoundly
affecting farming systems
• Diminishing land sizes and limited scope of accessing land
• Limited off-farm opportunities
• Are increasing population densities inducing innovations
aimed at intensifying the use of land?
• Consistent with the induced innovation theories of Boserup (1965)
and Ruttan and Hayami (1971)
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3. Total rural population projections
Source: UN Pop Council, 2013
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4. Increasing land conflicts-Newspaper Headlines
Local analysts point to historical land
injustices as the main cause of the 2007
post-election violence and the 2014
killings in the coastal region of Kenya
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5. Effects of population density on smallholder-intensification–
analytical framework
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6. Data sources
• Ethiopia: 6 waves of household-level data from the Ethiopian Rural
Household Surveys covering 1293 households
• Kenya: 5 waves of panel survey data on 1,146 farm households
• Malawi: 3 waves of rural farm households; only 1375 households
were re-interviewed in the last wave
• Geographic Information Systems: Population and land estimates data
came from two GIS databases:
• Global Rural–Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP)
• GlobCover 2009
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7. RESULTS: ETHIOPIA
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Household landholding /adult equivalent
by population density
Kilogram of fertilizer used/ha, by
population density

8. RESULTS: KENYA 3
Figure 1: Fertilizer quantities applied per hectare cultivated
100 150 200 250
50
actual simulated
25% 50% 75% 95%
0 250 500 750 1000
persons/sq km
Figure 2: Total value of cash expenditures per ha cultivated
10 12 14 16 18
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'000KSh/ha
actual simulated
25% 50% 75% 95%
0 250 500 750 1000
persons/sq km
Figure 4: Net crop income per hectare cultivated
20 40 60 80
actual simulated
25% 50% 75% 95%
0 250 500 750 1000
persons/sq km
Figure 5: Net crop income per family labor (resident adults)
15 20 25 30 35
'000KSh
actual simulated
25% 50% 75% 95%
0 250 500 750 1000
persons/sq km

9. RESULTS: MALAWI 2
Fertilizer kg/ha, by pop. den. Gross value of crop output/ha, by pop. den.
Farm Income per Adult Equivalent, by pop. den. Value of assets/adult equivalent, by pop. den.
25th percentile
50th percentile
75th percentile
99th percentile
0
1000 2000 3000 4000
0 200 400 600
population / square km of land

10. Summary of findings
• Rural population density is projected to increase by 48% in sub-
Saharan Africa in the next 35 years
• Population density is endogenous- what are the drivers of population
density in sub-Saharan Africa?
• Rising population densities are influencing household behavior and
farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa
• Intensification is not possible beyond some population density thresholds
• 13% of the rural population in Kenya live in areas beyond the thresholds
• Our results do not explain the reasons for the decline in agricultural
intensification
• Signs of unsustainable agricultural intensification– reduced fallows; soil
mining, etc.
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11. Acknowledgements
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