Pastoralism: From vulnerability to resilience

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Presented by Iain A Wright, Polly Ericksen, Andrew Mude and Klaus Butterbach-Bahl at the Workshop on Unsettled Futures for Subsistence Pastoralism: Adapting Livestock Systems in the Face of Changing Climate and Land Use, 67th Annual Meeting of the Society for Range Management, USA, 8-13 February 2014

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Pastoralism: From vulnerability to resilience

  1. 1. Pastoralism: From vulnerability to resilience Iain A Wright, Polly Ericksen, Andrew Mude and Klaus Butterbach-Bahl Unsettled Futures for Subsistence Pastoralism: Adapting Livestock Systems in the Face of Changing Climate and Land Use 67th Annual Meeting of the Society for Range Management, USA, 8-13 February 2014
  2. 2. Importance of pastoralism • Grazing land covers 32M km2 - ¼ of land surface • Supports over 64M poor people1 • 30M of them in Sub-Saharan Africa 1Robinson et al., 2011 < $2/day
  3. 3. Challenges in pastoral systems • Aridity • High Temperatures • Low soil fertility • Sharp seasonality • Inter-annual variability • Droughts • Climate change • Animal disease • Markets • Conflict/political disturbance
  4. 4. Variability in rainfall (Ethiopia) -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 year percentage -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 rainfall variation around the mean GDP growth -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 year percentage -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 rainfall variation around the mean GDP growth
  5. 5. Drought-related livestock mortality is the greatest source of vulnerability Source: IBLI Poject Baseline 2009 (Northern Kenya)
  6. 6. Adaptation strategies of agro-pastoral communities to climate change 0 .2 .4 .6 normalized rankings of coping mechanisms Remove children from school Living with relatives Reduction in consumption Sale of assets Use savings Help from institutions Seek temporary casual labour Food aid Help from relatives/friends Sale of cattle or camel Sale of goats or sheep Coping strategies of agro-pastoral community in response to drought – Kajiado district, Kenya; ILRI 2008)
  7. 7. Tsetse Distribution and Climate Change Model predictions for changes in tsetse distribution to 2030 from current distributions for morsitans (left), fusca (centre) and palpalis (right) tsetse groups as a result of changes in length of growing period No change: Absent Presence to Absence Absence to Presence No change: Present McDermott et al. (2001), revised 2005
  8. 8. Kazakhstan – Livestock numbers Beknke 2003
  9. 9. Pastoralism • Marginalized; • Economically • Socially • Politically • Perceived as • Backward • Uneconomic • Environmentally degrading
  10. 10. Revenue per hectare from livestock, cotton and sugar cane – Awash Valley, Ethiopia Behnke and Kerven, 2013
  11. 11. Future options Poor resource access Commercialization and export trade Traditional mobile pastoralism Diversification and added value Exits and alternative livelihoods Goodmarketaccess Poormarketaccess Good resource access
  12. 12. Commercialization
  13. 13. Livestock exports from Ethiopia Year Live animals Value (US $ ‘000) Meat (t) Value (US $ ‘000) 2005-06 165,000 27,252 7,717 15,598 2006-07 243,000 36,507 7,917 18,448 2007-08 298,000 40,865 5,875 15,471 2008-09 150,000 77,350 6,400 24,480 2009-10 334,000 91,000 10,000 34,000 2010-11 472,000 148,000 16,877 63,200
  14. 14. Commercialization • Defend livestock corridors to maintain mobility • Build infrastructure – roads, markets, quarantine stations • Develop identification and traceability systems • Improve animal health care and veterinary services
  15. 15. Diversification – payment for environmental services
  16. 16. Payment for wildlife services – Kenya Osano, 2013
  17. 17. Carbon sequestration by rangelands - Qinghai Province, China • Carbon financing to promote: • grassland rehabilitation by controlling land degradation and preserving water cycle and biodiversity • emission removal through soil carbon sequestration • emission reduction (per unit of product) through greater efficiency and productivity • food security through improved livestock management practices • Carbon finance from a voluntary scheme used to compensate costs and foregone income during a transition period • Expected to generate a reduction of approximately 500,000 t of CO2eq, over 10 years. • Aims to address some of the key barriers to smallholder access to carbon finance.
  18. 18. Index-based livestock insurance (IBLI)
  19. 19. The costs of uninsured risk in Kenya • Systemic Drought exposure: 28 Droughts last 100 years, 4 in last 10 years • Frequency and Intensity increasing • 2008 -2011: 4 consecutive years drought: – Total value damages and losses US$ 12.1 billion – Agriculture US$ 1.51 billion (12.5%) – Livestock US$ 8.74 billion (72.2%) – 9% national livestock herd died – mostly cattle • Food Insecurity due to drought: – 2009 = 3.8 million people – 2011 = 3.75 million people affected, • 1.8 million in marginal crop areas • 1.9 million people in marginal pastoral areas 12.5% 72.2% 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 3.3% 9.1% 0.1% Agriculture Livestock Fisheries Agro Industry Health Nutrition Education Energy Water and sanitation Environment, tourism etc Total Value Drought Losses US$ 12.2 billion This magnitude of drought damage and losses to agriculture and livestock cannot be financed out of GOK’s budget and by the Donor community only.
  20. 20. What is Index Based Insurance? • Policy holders paid based on external “index” that triggers payments to all insured clients • Avoids problems that make traditional insurance unprofitable for small, remote clients: • Suited for risks affecting a large number of people simultaneously and for which a suitable index exists. – No transactions costs of measuring individual losses – Preserves effort incentives (no moral hazard) as no single individual can influence index.
  21. 21. • Based on satellite data on forage availability- NDVI , this insurance pays out when forage scarcity is predicted to cause livestock deaths in an area. DATA • Livestock Mortality • Satellite data on forage availability Response Function Index • Predicted Livestock Mortality Designing IBLI S S S S S S Int Tr T N Wy = (I W )y + X α + X β + X γ +ε
  22. 22. IBLI Coverage • First launched in Marsabit in January 2010 • Have developed contracts for all arid counties of Kenya • Contract provision extended to Isiolo and Wajir in August 2013 • Also have a program in the Borana Zone of S. Ethiopia – launched in July 2012
  23. 23. Implementing IBLI Implementation of IBLI is a joint effort between ILRI (with support of its technical and development partners), commercial underwriters and implementing partners on the ground (government, NGOs, CBOs etc). EXTENSION, MARKETING, SALES
  24. 24. Preliminary results • 33% drop in households employing hunger strategies • 50% drop in distress sales of assets • 33% drop in food aid reliance
  25. 25. Carbon sequestration by rangelands - Qinghai Province, China
  26. 26. What can be done? • Commercialization • Defend livestock corridors to maintain mobility • Build infrastructure – roads, markets, quarantine stations, market services • Link to fattening enterprises • Develop identification and traceability systems • Improve animal health care and veterinary services • Diversification • Explore options for payment for environmental services • Institutional arrangements? • Ensure legal entitlements to land and other resources • Provide insurance
  27. 27. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI. better lives through livestock ilri.org

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