AustraliaPopulation2016.com is an effort site to share most approximate population of Australia states and its city. We are a couple of tech enthusiast working behind the site. Visit http://australiapopulation2016.com/ for more details.
Olli Kangas: A Recipe for a Better Life: Experiences from the Nordic Countries. Winter Afternoon at Hanasaari, 5 March 2015, Helsinki. Olli Kangas - Research Director, Kela /Visiting Professor, Department of Political Science, Uppsala University.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has today released its 2016 Causes of Death data - which includes annual national suicide information. The following State and Territory data has been developed by the Mindframe National Media Initiative www.mindframe-media.info
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has today released its 2016 Causes of Death data - which
includes annual national suicide information. The following summary has been developed by the Mindframe National Media Initiative www.mindframe-media.info
AustraliaPopulation2016.com is an effort site to share most approximate population of Australia states and its city. We are a couple of tech enthusiast working behind the site. Visit http://australiapopulation2016.com/ for more details.
Olli Kangas: A Recipe for a Better Life: Experiences from the Nordic Countries. Winter Afternoon at Hanasaari, 5 March 2015, Helsinki. Olli Kangas - Research Director, Kela /Visiting Professor, Department of Political Science, Uppsala University.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has today released its 2016 Causes of Death data - which includes annual national suicide information. The following State and Territory data has been developed by the Mindframe National Media Initiative www.mindframe-media.info
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has today released its 2016 Causes of Death data - which
includes annual national suicide information. The following summary has been developed by the Mindframe National Media Initiative www.mindframe-media.info
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has today released its 2016 Causes of Death data - which includes annual national suicide information. The following summary has been developed by the Mindframe National Media Initiative www.mindframe-media.info
Australian suicide data 2016 - national summaryEverymind
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its 2016 Causes of Death data on 27 September - which includes annual national suicide information. The following summary has been developed by Mindframe, and initiative of Everymind -www.mindframe-media.info
Social Isolation Norfolk - Background & Research CANorfolk
Overview of some of the key research on the importance of social isolation and loneliness on health and wellbeing outcomes. Includes mapping of which communities in Norfolk are most likely to have the highest number of people at risk of loneliness.
Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander suicide data 2016Everymind
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its 2016 Causes of Death data on 27 September 2017 - which includes annual national suicide information. The following summary has been developed by Mindframe, an initiative of Everymind -
www.mindframe-media.info
Australian State and Territory suicide data 2016Everymind
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its 2016 Causes of Death data on 27 September 2017 - which includes annual national suicide information. The following summary has been developed by Mindframe, an initiative of Everymind - www.mindframe-media.info
Prior to the GFC, Australia was experiencing its most rapid population growth since 1972. This presentation suggests that the GFC will lead to a reduction in population growth in Australia due to a fall in both fertility and international migration. However, it also argues that regardless of global and Australian economic trends there are fundamental demographic factors which necessitate the maintenance of significant population growth into the future. Some of the implications of these trends for business are explored.
Presentation delivered to University of Melbourne students, May 2022. Topics covered include population trends, population forecasts and community infrastructure planning.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has today released its 2016 Causes of Death data - which includes annual national suicide information. The following summary has been developed by the Mindframe National Media Initiative www.mindframe-media.info
Australian suicide data 2016 - national summaryEverymind
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its 2016 Causes of Death data on 27 September - which includes annual national suicide information. The following summary has been developed by Mindframe, and initiative of Everymind -www.mindframe-media.info
Social Isolation Norfolk - Background & Research CANorfolk
Overview of some of the key research on the importance of social isolation and loneliness on health and wellbeing outcomes. Includes mapping of which communities in Norfolk are most likely to have the highest number of people at risk of loneliness.
Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander suicide data 2016Everymind
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its 2016 Causes of Death data on 27 September 2017 - which includes annual national suicide information. The following summary has been developed by Mindframe, an initiative of Everymind -
www.mindframe-media.info
Australian State and Territory suicide data 2016Everymind
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its 2016 Causes of Death data on 27 September 2017 - which includes annual national suicide information. The following summary has been developed by Mindframe, an initiative of Everymind - www.mindframe-media.info
Prior to the GFC, Australia was experiencing its most rapid population growth since 1972. This presentation suggests that the GFC will lead to a reduction in population growth in Australia due to a fall in both fertility and international migration. However, it also argues that regardless of global and Australian economic trends there are fundamental demographic factors which necessitate the maintenance of significant population growth into the future. Some of the implications of these trends for business are explored.
Presentation delivered to University of Melbourne students, May 2022. Topics covered include population trends, population forecasts and community infrastructure planning.
General perception that the wave of post war baby boomers are heading towards retirement age now and that this will have a significant (and in some people’s minds, catastrophic) impact on our communities. There will be a huge impost on our aged care services, a mismatch between the number of people working and the number of people dependent on their taxes, and there will be a skills shortage as the baby boomers leave the work force in droves.
This view is often accompanied by a sense of inevitability – as if this course was set for us 60 years ago and there’s nothing we can do about it.
At .id, our business is to understand population change, and how populations are likely to change into the future. We do this so that local government can plan effectively for these changes. Our research shows that there has been a significant population shift in Australia over the last five years, and that the rhetoric around the aging of the baby boomers may no longer be serving us well.
John Williams, Professor of Law, Aberystwyth University Age UK
John Williams' presentation from the "Working towards a human rights convention" conference held by Age UK and Age International on the 31st July 2013.
Yvonne Doyle - High Impact Health Interventions Age UK
Yvonne Doyle, Director of Public Health, Public Health England - presentation from Age UK's For Later Life conference, 25th April 2013.
For more information, view: www.ageuk.org.uk/forlaterlife
David Regan - High impact health interventionsAge UK
David Regan, Director of Public Health, Manchester City Council - presentation from Age UK's For Later Life conference, 25th April.
For more information: www.ageuk.org.uk/forlaterlife
Tom Kirkwood - High impact health interventionsAge UK
Professor Tom Kirkwood, Associate Dean for Ageing, University of Newcastle - presentation from Age UK's For Later Life conference, 25th April.
For more information: www.ageuk.org.uk/forlaterlife
Nick Goodwin - Bringing integrated care to lifeAge UK
Dr Nick Goodwin, Senior Fellow, The King's Fund - presentation from Age UK's For Later Life conference, 25th April.
For more information: www.ageuk.org.uk/forlaterlife
Pam Creaven - Bringing integrated care to lifeAge UK
Pam Creaven, Services Director, Age UK - presentation from Age UK For Later Life conference, 25th April.
For more information: www.ageuk.org.uk/forlaterlife
1. The future ageing of the ethnic
minority population
Ageing and Ethnicity Conference
Runnymede / AgeUK
Nat Lievesley
Centre for Policy on Ageing
December 2012
2. The future ageing of the ethnic minority
population of England and Wales
Key findings and
implications of
projections carried out
in 2010 by the Centre
for Policy on Ageing on
behalf of the
Runnymede Trust as
part of a Nationwide
Foundation funded
programme of work.
3. Using as a base,2001 census data and the ethnic minority
categories from that census
4. Ethnicity
• Ethnicity is a ‘multi-faceted and changing phenomenon’ that
may reflect a combination of a number of features including
country of birth, nationality, language spoken at home,
ancestral country of birth, skin colour, national or
geographical origin, racial group and religion. (ONS, 2003)
• An individual’s ethnicity is a self assessed concept that may
change over time and is not the same as country of birth or
nationality. Country of birth may sometimes be used as a
proxy for ethnicity for recent migrant groups but for second
and subsequent generation descendants of migrants, country
of birth will be a poor indicator of ethnicity.
5. Projections (England and Wales)
• Extrapolation from ONS 2001-2007 mid year
population estimates
• Cohort component projection
End population = Start population + births – deaths –
outward migration + survivors from inward
migration
– 2001 Census as base
– Fertility
– Mortality
– Migration
– Ethnic switching (trans-generational ethnic transfer)
6. The drawback of national projections
• The ethnic minority population of England and Wales is not evenly
distributed
• In 2011...
– 15% of population of England and Wales live in London but 41% of BME
population live in London
– 61% of BME population live in London , West Midlands, Greater Manchester
or West Yorkshire
– Over one quarter (27%) of all Bangladeshis in England and Wales live in Tower
Hamlets or Newham
– Over half of the black ethnic minority population live in London (Black
Caribbean – 58%, Black African – 58%, Other Black – 61%)
• A 2010 study from the University of Leeds suggests BME population will
become more evenly spread in future
(Wohland et al, Ethnic population projections for the UK and local areas, University of Leeds
School of Geography, 2010)
9. Fertility
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of live children that a group of women would bear
if they experienced the age-specific fertility rates of the calendar year in question throughout their
childbearing lifespan.
16. Migration
• Re-migration, the return or onward migration
of non-British nationals, is an increasingly
important phenomenon. Since 1975 around
one half of all immigrants have re-migrated.
• Return migration in older age may also
become an increasingly important
phenomenon among some ethnic minority
groups in the future.
19. Validation
• The overall population projections for England and Wales
derived by summing the individual ethnic minority cohort
component projections are a close match to both the figures
derived by extrapolation and to the principal ONS population
projections for England and Wales for 2016 and 2026.
• The overall population for England and Wales, derived by
summing the individual ethnic minority group projections,
continues to lie within 1% of ONS population projections for
every 5 year time point all the way to 2051.
20. Ethnic minority population projections to 2051, England and Wales
Note: The left axis starts at 30 million to visibly display the ethnic minority groups and therefore does not show the majority
‘White British’ group proportionately.
21. The future of the older black and
minority ethnic population
• Going forward, the ethnic minority population of England and
Wales will, in general, have a younger population structure
than the majority White British population. The notable
exceptions to this are the White Irish, Indian, ’Other White’
and Black Caribbean ethnic groups.
• Despite this...
– there will be 2.4 million BMEs aged 50 and over by 2016 with 3.8
million by 2026 and 7.4 million by 2051
– there will be over 800 thousand BMEs aged 65 and over by 2016 with
1.3 million by 2026 and 3.8 million by 2051
– there will be over 500 thousand BMEs aged 70 and over by 2016 with
over 800 thousand by 2026 and 2.8 million by 2051
37. Implications for service provision
*As indicated by a Revised Clinical Interview Schedule score of 12 or more
Ethnic Minority Psychiatric Illness Rates in the Community (EMPIRIC), National Centre for
Social Research, 2002
38. Implications for service provision
*Self assessed
Ethnic Minority Psychiatric Illness Rates in the Community (EMPIRIC), National Centre for
Social Research, 2002
39. Dementia
Alzheimer’s Society - UK Dementia rates:
– 40-64 years: 1 in 1400
– 65-69 years: 1 in 100
– 70-79 years: 1 in 25
– 80+ years: 1 in 6
40. Note: The left axis starts at 30 million to visibly display the ethnic minority groups and therefore
does not show the majority ‘White British’ group proportionately.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45. Culturally Competent Care
Culturally competent care involves a knowledge and awareness of
cultural diversity and the views and practices of the individual religions
and cultures of residents so that care may be offered in an appropriate
way. Training in cultural competence should be part of staff training.
46. Nat Lievesley email: nat@cpa.org.uk
The full projection report is available at...
http://www.cpa.org.uk/reportsandreviews
Editor's Notes
The total fertility rate for the whole population fell from a peak of 2.93 in 1964 to a low of 1.63 in 2001 before rising again to 1.97 in 2008. Women are having children later but the age gap between the second and third child is falling and birth rates for 35-39 and 40+ are rising
Ethnic minority birth rates are converging.
Ethnic minority groups settle disproportionately in different parts of the country and because overall life expectancy also varies by locality, best estimates of the contribution of each ethnic group to local life expectancies and from that the life expectancies of individual ethnic groups can be estimated. Rees and Wohland call this process the GWM or Geographically Weighted Method.
Life expectancy at any age will generally improve over time for both males and females
The Office for National Statistics has published tables of period life expectancies for the population of England and Wales for all ages from 0 to 95 and all years from 1981 to 2058. These are based on historical mortality rates from 1981 to 2008 and assumed calendar year mortality rates from the 2008-based principal projections. From these tables, life table values can be reverse engineered and five year survival rates calculated.
Migration patterns can be erratic and difficult to predict
In a period of restricted inward migration, net migration for each ethnic group may be made up of two components, an inflow which has a fixed maximum value and an outflow that is proportionate to the resident population. Where there is a net outflow, and a falling population, as in the case of the White Irish, the falling population cannot maintain the same absolute overall level of net outward migration and emigration will fall as the population size falls. These projections assume that migration remains at 2001–2007 levels until 2011 then falls by an average of 30%. It is the coalition government’s declared intention to reduce non-EU migration to the levels experienced in the 1990s.