This presentation discusses trends in Nipissing District's population and the implications for childcare fee subsidy pressures. It shows that the district's population is aging, with the large baby boom generation reaching retirement, which will reduce the workforce. At the same time, the number of children under age 12 requiring subsidized childcare is rising gradually over time. This increasing demand is exacerbated by seasonal fluctuations related to the school year and random policy changes. The trends suggest the district will face ongoing pressure to subsidize more children and maintain services for an aging population.

1. WELCOME!
Nipissing District Childrens
Services Planning Table
Planning Day
Oct. 18, 2011
Presented by Dave Plumstead

2. THIS PRESENTATION:
1) Population Pyramids and
Nipissing’s Boom, Bust & Echo
2) Why the fee subsidy pressure?

3. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90+
0100200300400500600700800900 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Nipissing District Population 2011
By single-year age groups and sex

# people
Statistics Canada
estimates for 2009 and
Ontario Ministry
of Finance projections
(Spring 2010). Age-group
descriptions,
Boom Bust Echo
(Foot, 1998)

4. Nipissing District Population 2011
By single-year age groups and sex
Statistics Canada
estimates for 2009 and
Ontario Ministry
of Finance projections
(Spring 2010). Age-group
descriptions,
Boom Bust Echo
(Foot, 1998)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90+

5. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90+
0100200300400500600700800900 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Nipissing District Population 2011
By single-year age groups and sex
 “Roaring
Twenties”;
Great
Depression;
WWII:
Ages 65 +
# people
Statistics Canada
estimates for 2009 and
Ontario Ministry
of Finance projections
(Spring 2010). Age-group
descriptions,
Boom Bust Echo
(Foot, 1998)

6. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90+
0100200300400500600700800900 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Nipissing District Population 2011
By single-year age groups and sex

Baby
Boom:
ages
45-64
“Roaring
Twenties”;
Great
Depression;
WWII:
Ages 65 +
# people
Statistics Canada
estimates for 2009 and
Ontario Ministry
of Finance projections
(Spring 2010). Age-group
descriptions,
Boom Bust Echo
(Foot, 1998)

7. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90+
0100200300400500600700800900 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Nipissing District Population 2011
By single-year age groups and sex

Baby
Boom:
ages
45-64
Baby Bust:
Ages 31-44
Echo
generation:
ages 16-30
“Roaring
Twenties”;
Great
Depression;
WWII:
Ages 65 +
# people
Statistics Canada
estimates for 2009 and
Ontario Ministry
of Finance projections
(Spring 2010). Age-group
descriptions,
Boom Bust Echo
(Foot, 1998)

8. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90+
0100200300400500600700800900 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Nipissing District Population 2011
By single-year age groups and sex

Baby
Boom:
ages
45-64
Baby Bust:
Ages 31-44
Echo
generation:
ages 16-30
Millenniums:
ages 1-15
“Roaring
Twenties”;
Great
Depression;
WWII:
Ages 65 +
# people
Statistics Canada
estimates for 2009 and
Ontario Ministry
of Finance projections
(Spring 2010). Age-group
descriptions,
Boom Bust Echo
(Foot, 1998)
Ages 0-12 years: 10,830

9. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90+
0100200300400500600700800900 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Boomers
51%
Seniors
represent
approx. 11% of
the families
with children
# people
Share of families with children
extrapolated from Statistics Canada
census 2006 data;
Cat. No. 97-554-XCB2006035.
Age-group descriptions,
Boom Bust Echo
(David Foot, 1998)
Nipissing District Population 2011
By share of children (0-25 + yrs.),
2006

10. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90+
0100200300400500600700800900 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Boomers
51%
Busters:
35%
Echos:
3%
Seniors
represent
approx. 11% of
the families
with children
# people
Share of families with children
extrapolated from Statistics Canada
census 2006 data;
Cat. No. 97-554-XCB2006035.
Age-group descriptions,
Boom Bust Echo
(David Foot, 1998)
Nipissing District Population 2011
By share of children (0-25 + yrs.),
2006

11. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90+
0100200300400500600700800900 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Boomers
51%
Busters:
35%
Echos:
3%
Seniors
represent
approx. 11% of
the families
with children
# people
Share of families with children
extrapolated from Statistics Canada
census 2006 data;
Cat. No. 97-554-XCB2006035.
Age-group descriptions,
Boom Bust Echo
(David Foot, 1998)
Nipissing District Population 2011
By share of children (0-25 + yrs.),
2006
NDCSPT target children
and their parents

12. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90+
2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024
Nipissing District population change
over next 20 years: 2011 to 2031.
20252026
# people
2027202820292030
0100200300400500600700800900 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
2031
Age
# people

Statistics Canada
estimates for 2009 and
Ontario Ministry
of Finance projections
(Spring 2010).

13. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90+
0100200300400500600700800900 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Nipissing District population 2031
Boomers:
ages
65-84
Busters:
ages
51-64
Echoers:
ages
36-50
Age
Millenniums:
ages
21-35
?
ages 0-20
# people

Statistics Canada
estimates for 2009 and
Ontario Ministry
of Finance projections
(Spring 2010).

14. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90+
0100200300400500600700800900 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Nipissing District population 2031
Boomers:
ages
65-84
Busters:
ages
51-64
Echoers:
ages
36-50
Age
Millenniums:
ages
21-35
?
ages 0-20
# people

Senior citizens 75%
Core workforce 8%
Youth 19%
Children = same
Statistics Canada
estimates for 2009 and
Ontario Ministry
of Finance projections
(Spring 2010).

15. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
0100200300400500600 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Nipissing District Population 2011
Ages 0 -12 years
 

16. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
 20112012201320142015201620172018201920202021
0100200300400500600 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
2022
Nipissing District population
ages 0-12, 2011 -2022

17. 0100200300400500 0 100 200 300 400 500
Nipissing District Aboriginal
Population 2006,
5-year age groups
 
Ages 0-14
= 25% of
Aboriginal
population
Ages 65 >
= 6.5% of
Aboriginal
population

18. Nipissing District
Population 2006,
5-year age groups
 
05001000150020002500300035004000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
Ages 0-14
= 16.5% of
population
Ages 65 >
= 16% of
population

19. Nipissing District population
05001000150020002500300035004000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
0100200300400500 0 100 200 300 400 500
Nipissing District Aboriginal population

20. Questions?

21. NEXT PART OF PRESENTATION:
Co-presenter: Lynn Demore-Pitre
Why the fee subsidy pressure?
Q:
Let’s start by asking, what are the
fee subsidy trends?

22. The long-term underlying movement
(trend) in fee subsidy has been one of
increase
Within the fee subsidy trend there are
seasonal events that are closely related to
education and employment
There are also randomly occurring events
such as government policy and program
changes which have had an impact on the
trend
A:

23. Number of Monthly, Fee Subsidized Children
(0-12 years) in Nipissing District: Jan. 2007 - June 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan-07
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-08
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-09
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-10
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-11
March
May
NumberofChildren
Trend: average: 911 children; standard deviation: 47.4
Figure 1
Data source: monthly CAO Board Reports
Trend
Jan 07:
783
children
Jan 11
932
children

24. Number of Monthly, Fee Subsidized Children
(0-12 years) in Nipissing District: Jan. 2007 - June 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan-07
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-08
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-09
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-10
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-11
March
May
NumberofChildren
Trend: average: 911 children; standard deviation: 47.4
Figure 1
Data source: monthly CAO Board Reports
The long-term underlying
movement (trend) in fee subsidy
has been one of increase,
although not in a linear fashion.
Trend
Jan 07:
783
children
Jan 11
932
children

25. Number of Monthly, Fee Subsidized Children
(0-12 years) in Nipissing District: Jan. 2007 - June 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan-07
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-08
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-09
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-10
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-11
March
May
NumberofChildren
Seasonal
2007
average: 861
standard deviation: 40.4
2008
average: 920
standard deviation: 20.2
2009
average: 904
standard deviation: 17.7
2010
average: 923
standard deviation: 57.6
2011 to date
ave: 968
SD: 21.2
Figure 1
Data source: monthly CAO Board Reports
Seasonal events

26. Number of Monthly, Fee Subsidized Children
(0-12 years) in Nipissing District: Jan. 2007 - June 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan-07
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-08
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-09
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-10
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-11
March
May
NumberofChildren
Seasonal
2007
average: 861
standard deviation: 40.4
2008
average: 920
standard deviation: 20.2
2009
average: 904
standard deviation: 17.7
2010
average: 923
standard deviation: 57.6
2011 to date
ave: 968
SD: 21.2
Figure 1
Data source: monthly CAO Board Reports
Seasonal events
The trend has seasonal events that are closely
related to education and employment.

27. Random events
Number of Monthly, Fee Subsidized Children
(0-12 years) in Nipissing District: Jan. 2007 - June 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan-07
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-08
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-09
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-10
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-11
March
May
NumberofChildren
Random events
Figure 1
Data source: monthly CAO Board Reports

28. Random events
Number of Monthly, Fee Subsidized Children
(0-12 years) in Nipissing District: Jan. 2007 - June 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan-07
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-08
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-09
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-10
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-11
March
May
NumberofChildren
Random events
Figure 1
Data source: monthly CAO Board Reports
Jan. 2007:
new fee subsidy
eligibility rules -
trend reversal

29. Random events
Number of Monthly, Fee Subsidized Children
(0-12 years) in Nipissing District: Jan. 2007 - June 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan-07
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-08
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-09
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-10
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-11
March
May
NumberofChildren
Random events
Figure 1
Data source: monthly CAO Board Reports
Jan. 2007:
new fee subsidy
eligibility rules -
trend reversal
Oct. 2008:
economic
recession.

30. Random events
Number of Monthly, Fee Subsidized Children
(0-12 years) in Nipissing District: Jan. 2007 - June 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan-07
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-08
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-09
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-10
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-11
March
May
NumberofChildren
Random events
Figure 1
Data source: monthly CAO Board Reports
Jan. 2007:
new fee subsidy
eligibility rules -
trend reversal
Oct. 2008:
economic
recession.
April 2010:
Full day learning
legislation passed.
May 2010:
stability plan
leads to a fee
subsidy rate
increase

31. Random events
Number of Monthly, Fee Subsidized Children
(0-12 years) in Nipissing District: Jan. 2007 - June 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan-07
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-08
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-09
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-10
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-11
March
May
NumberofChildren
Random events
Figure 1
Data source: monthly CAO Board Reports
Jan. 2007:
new fee subsidy
eligibility rules -
trend reversal
Oct. 2008:
economic
recession.
April 2010:
Full day learning
legislation passed.
Sept. 2010:
First ELP
designated
schools
May 2010:
stability plan
leads to a fee
subsidy rate
increase

32. Random events
Number of Monthly, Fee Subsidized Children
(0-12 years) in Nipissing District: Jan. 2007 - June 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan-07
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-08
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-09
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-10
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-11
March
May
NumberofChildren
Random events
Figure 1
Data source: monthly CAO Board Reports
Jan. 2007:
new fee subsidy
eligibility rules -
trend reversal
Oct. 2008:
economic
recession.
April 2010:
Full day learning
legislation passed.
Sept. 2010:
First ELP
designated
schools
Randomly occurring events such as government policy and
program changes can also affect the trend, and the number
of subsidized children in Nipissing District.
May 2010:
stability plan
leads to a fee
subsidy rate
increase

33. Smoothed Trend: Number of Monthly, Fee Subsidized
Children (0-12 years) in Nipissing District,
Jan. 2007 - June 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan-07
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-08
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-09
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-10
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-11
March
May
NumberofChildren
Trend, 4-month moving average Series2
Figure 2

34. Smoothed Trend: Number of Monthly, Fee Subsidized
Children (0-12 years) in Nipissing District,
Jan. 2007 - June 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan-07
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-08
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-09
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-10
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-11
March
May
NumberofChildren
Trend, 4-month moving average Series2
Figure 2
The smoothed trend helps to clearly
show the first stepped increase in
the number of subsidized children,
followed by a decrease, and then
the second stepped increase.

35. Q:
Is there a change in the age-
groups of fee subsidized children?

36.  The number of subsidized toddlers (1.6
– 2.5 years) and kindergarten children
(ages 4 – 6 years) has remained relatively
steady over time.
 However, the number of fee subsidy
infants (0 – 1.5 years) has recently
started to decrease.
Preschoolers (2.5 – 4 years) and
school age children (6 – 12 years) are
trending upward.
A:

37. Average number of subsidized children by age group
4-year trend (2007 - 2010)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
#children
, 60 67 62 48
Toddler (1.6 - 2.5 yrs.) 121 115 123 125
, 206 228 233 255
JK (3.8 - 5 yrs.) 99 115 109 112
SK (4.8 - 6 yrs.) 77 86 82 83
, 296 299 295 305
Ave. 2007 Ave. 2008 Ave. 2009 Ave. 2010
Figure 3

38. Average number of subsidized children by age group
4-year trend (2007 - 2010)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
#children
Infant (0 - 1.5 yrs.) 60 67 62 48
Toddler (1.6 - 2.5 yrs.) 121 115 123 125
Preschool (2.6 - 4 yrs.) 206 228 233 255
JK (3.8 - 5 yrs.) 99 115 109 112
SK (4.8 - 6 yrs.) 77 86 82 83
School Age (6 - 12 yrs.) 296 299 295 305
Ave. 2007 Ave. 2008 Ave. 2009 Ave. 2010
Figure 3

39. Q:
What is the district’s current
childcare capacity and structure?
How has this capacity changed?

40.  As of June 30 2011, there are currently
1,923 centre-based licensed childcare
spaces in Nipissing District (excludes
private in-home childcare)
 At the same time last year there were
1,694 licensed childcare spaces (= 229
more spaces /12% increase)
A:

41.  There are also 500 licensed private-
home spaces currently available
throughout the District and we continue to
note an increase of families requiring this
type of childcare
 Five relatively large childcare service
providers account for 79% of the district’s
childcare capacity
A:

42. Nipissing District's Childcare Structure:
Service Provider Licensed Capacity and Share
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Capacity (number of children)
Shareoftotalcapacity,%

43. Q:
What is causing the increase in
the number of subsidized children
in Nipissing District?
Is the increase across the
childcare sector?

44.  A main factor in this increase - and the
associated budget pressure – is an
increase in childcare capacity resulting
from the government’s Early Learning
Program
 The increase is not occurring across
the district’s childcare sector – rather,
it is presently concentrated in the large
service providers
A:

45. Number of Monthly, Fee Subsidized Children
(0-12 years) in Nipissing District: Jan. 2007 - June 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan-07
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-08
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-09
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-10
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-11
March
May
NumberofChildren
Figure 1
Data source: monthly CAO Board Reports
Trend
+ 128 children

46. Number of Monthly, Fee Subsidized Children
(0-12 years) in Nipissing District: Jan. 2007 - June 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan-07
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-08
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-09
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-10
March
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan-11
March
May
NumberofChildren
Figure 1
Data source: monthly CAO Board Reports
Trend
Sept. 2010: outlier
coincides with first
ELP schools…… is
this significant or by
chance?
+ 128 children

47. Nipissing District's Childcare Structure:
Service Provider Licensed Capacity and Share
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Capacity (number of children)
Shareoftotalcapacity,%
229 space increase
is amongst the large
service providers.

48. Nipissing District's Childcare Structure:
Service Provider Licensed Capacity and Share
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Capacity (number of children)
Shareoftotalcapacity,%
229 space increase
is amongst the large
service providers.
Many of these spaces are
in the ELP schools, and
the pre-school and
school- age groups

49. Questions?

50. Thank you !