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MODEL TREES AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO NEURAL
NETWORKS IN RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELLING
Lecturer : Dr.techn. Pujo Aji.,S.T.,M.T
By Martheana Kencanawati/Id Students Number :
03111860010003
the 3rd Data Driven and
Computational
Intellegence Assignment
POST GRADUATE PROGRAM CIVIL ENGINEERING DEPT.- ITS
FACULTY OF CIVIL ENVIRONMENTAL AND GEO ENGINEERING
MODEL TREES AS AN ALTERNATIVE
TO NEURAL NETWORKS IN
RAINFALL RUNOFF MODELLING
DIMITRI P. SOLOMATINE..Model trees as an alternative to neural
networks in rainfall runoff modelling.pdf
International Institute for Infrastructural Hydraulic and Environment Engineering (IHE)
KHADA N. DULAL
Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, PO BOX 406, Kathmandu, Nepal
Abstract. This paper investigates the comparative performance of two data driven modelling
techniques, namely artificial neural networks (ANNs) and model trees (MTs), in rainfall-runoff
transformation. The applicability of these techniques is studied by predicting runoff one, three
and six hours ahead for European catchment. The results shows that both ANNs and MTs
produce excellent results for 1-h ahead prediction, acceptable results for 3-h ahead prediction
and conditionally acceptable results for 6-h ahead prediction. Both techniques have almost
similar performance for 1-h head prediction of run off, but the result of the ANN is slightly
better than the MT for higher lead times. However, the advantage of the MT is that the results is
more understandable and allow one to build a family of models of varying complexity and
accuracy.
Keywords rainfall; runoff; artificial neural networks, M5 model tree; prediction; committee
accuracy5/11/2020 2
INTRODUCTION
Prediction
of
variables
Precipitatio
n
Runoff
River
stages
Major
Problems
Hydrology
5/11/2020 3
Hydrologycal
Modelling
Importants Task
For
Planning
Operation
Control
Water Resources Project
INTRODUCTION (2)
5/11/2020 4
INTRODUCTION
Area of rainfall-
runoff modelling
Numerous runoff
forecasting
techniques have
been suggested
and used in the
past..
The theory-
driven
(conceptual
and physically-
based)
approach, and
the data driven
(empirical and
black box)
approach often
associated by
practitioners
statistical
modelling.
Conceptual
models
represent the
general
internal sub
processes and
physical
mechanisms
of the
hydrological
cycle.
There are
basically
two
approache
s for
hydrologic
al
modelling
5/11/2020 5
Parameter are generally
assumed are based on
Lumped presentation of
the Basin
Characteristic
Physically based models
are based on the
understanding
Underlying physical behavior of
the system (hydrological cycle)
Typically, they involve the
solution of a system of partial
diferrential equations that
represent
Flow Processes in the
watershed
BATAS D.A.S
RIVER
TRIBUTARY
MAIN
OUTLET
5/11/2020 6
Courtesy: Umboro Lasminto,2007
EXPERIMENT (1) ………M5 MODEL
TREE
5/11/2020 7
EKSPERIMEN (2)
5/11/2020 8
DATA ANALYSIS OF THE SIEVE
CATCHMENT FOR PREPARATION OF
INPUTS
For data driven modelling of the sieve
catchment, the casual variable is the rainfall,
while the hydrological response is the
discharge at the outlet. Visualization of the
input and output shows that the maximum
value of peak to peak lags of rainfall and runoff
is close to 7h.
EKSPERIMEN
(3)
5/11/2020 9
EXPERIMENT (5)
INPUT SET PREPARATION
The goal of a data driven
model (DDM), for example of
a regression model or ANN. Is
to generalize a relationship of
the form. 𝑌(𝑚)
= 𝑓(𝑥 𝑛
)
ANN model set up
The meaning of the symbols
used is as follows:
Software package Neural
Machine(2002) and Neuro
Solution(2002) were used for
the ANN Modelling.
A Multi-layered perceptron
(MLP) network trained with
the back-propagation algoritm
was used because of its
simplicity and capability to
learn the rainfall-runoff
relationship.
5/11/2020 10
EKSPERIMEN (6)……DATA ANALYSIS
5/11/2020 11
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION (1)
Prediction of runoff
one hour ahead
Prediction of runoff
three hour ahead
Prediction of runoff
six hour ahead
5/11/2020 12
RESULTS
AND
DISCUSSI
ON (2)
Prediction of
Qt+1, Qt+6,
Qt+3 using
ANNs and
MTs
5/11/2020 13
CONCLUSION
For the runoff modelling experiments of the Sieve catchment using ANNs and MTs, it was found
that both techniques performed very well for runoff prediction with short lead times (1 and 3
h), while both failed to produce good results for runoff prediction with higher lead times (6 h).
The prediction of runoff 1 h ahead is satisfactory because the input space contains the most
recent information as well as appropriately lagged information
In this study, the higher errors for the higher prediction lead times may be due to the following
factors : inadequacy in the information carrying capacity of the available data and inability of
the model to identify saturation excess runoff and infiltration excess runoff.
5/11/2020 14
5/11/2020 15

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Model trees as an alternative to neural networks

  • 1. MODEL TREES AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO NEURAL NETWORKS IN RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELLING Lecturer : Dr.techn. Pujo Aji.,S.T.,M.T By Martheana Kencanawati/Id Students Number : 03111860010003 the 3rd Data Driven and Computational Intellegence Assignment POST GRADUATE PROGRAM CIVIL ENGINEERING DEPT.- ITS FACULTY OF CIVIL ENVIRONMENTAL AND GEO ENGINEERING
  • 2. MODEL TREES AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO NEURAL NETWORKS IN RAINFALL RUNOFF MODELLING DIMITRI P. SOLOMATINE..Model trees as an alternative to neural networks in rainfall runoff modelling.pdf International Institute for Infrastructural Hydraulic and Environment Engineering (IHE) KHADA N. DULAL Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, PO BOX 406, Kathmandu, Nepal Abstract. This paper investigates the comparative performance of two data driven modelling techniques, namely artificial neural networks (ANNs) and model trees (MTs), in rainfall-runoff transformation. The applicability of these techniques is studied by predicting runoff one, three and six hours ahead for European catchment. The results shows that both ANNs and MTs produce excellent results for 1-h ahead prediction, acceptable results for 3-h ahead prediction and conditionally acceptable results for 6-h ahead prediction. Both techniques have almost similar performance for 1-h head prediction of run off, but the result of the ANN is slightly better than the MT for higher lead times. However, the advantage of the MT is that the results is more understandable and allow one to build a family of models of varying complexity and accuracy. Keywords rainfall; runoff; artificial neural networks, M5 model tree; prediction; committee accuracy5/11/2020 2
  • 5. INTRODUCTION Area of rainfall- runoff modelling Numerous runoff forecasting techniques have been suggested and used in the past.. The theory- driven (conceptual and physically- based) approach, and the data driven (empirical and black box) approach often associated by practitioners statistical modelling. Conceptual models represent the general internal sub processes and physical mechanisms of the hydrological cycle. There are basically two approache s for hydrologic al modelling 5/11/2020 5
  • 6. Parameter are generally assumed are based on Lumped presentation of the Basin Characteristic Physically based models are based on the understanding Underlying physical behavior of the system (hydrological cycle) Typically, they involve the solution of a system of partial diferrential equations that represent Flow Processes in the watershed BATAS D.A.S RIVER TRIBUTARY MAIN OUTLET 5/11/2020 6 Courtesy: Umboro Lasminto,2007
  • 7. EXPERIMENT (1) ………M5 MODEL TREE 5/11/2020 7
  • 9. DATA ANALYSIS OF THE SIEVE CATCHMENT FOR PREPARATION OF INPUTS For data driven modelling of the sieve catchment, the casual variable is the rainfall, while the hydrological response is the discharge at the outlet. Visualization of the input and output shows that the maximum value of peak to peak lags of rainfall and runoff is close to 7h. EKSPERIMEN (3) 5/11/2020 9
  • 10. EXPERIMENT (5) INPUT SET PREPARATION The goal of a data driven model (DDM), for example of a regression model or ANN. Is to generalize a relationship of the form. 𝑌(𝑚) = 𝑓(𝑥 𝑛 ) ANN model set up The meaning of the symbols used is as follows: Software package Neural Machine(2002) and Neuro Solution(2002) were used for the ANN Modelling. A Multi-layered perceptron (MLP) network trained with the back-propagation algoritm was used because of its simplicity and capability to learn the rainfall-runoff relationship. 5/11/2020 10
  • 12. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION (1) Prediction of runoff one hour ahead Prediction of runoff three hour ahead Prediction of runoff six hour ahead 5/11/2020 12
  • 13. RESULTS AND DISCUSSI ON (2) Prediction of Qt+1, Qt+6, Qt+3 using ANNs and MTs 5/11/2020 13
  • 14. CONCLUSION For the runoff modelling experiments of the Sieve catchment using ANNs and MTs, it was found that both techniques performed very well for runoff prediction with short lead times (1 and 3 h), while both failed to produce good results for runoff prediction with higher lead times (6 h). The prediction of runoff 1 h ahead is satisfactory because the input space contains the most recent information as well as appropriately lagged information In this study, the higher errors for the higher prediction lead times may be due to the following factors : inadequacy in the information carrying capacity of the available data and inability of the model to identify saturation excess runoff and infiltration excess runoff. 5/11/2020 14