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Operations Management
Author: Prof. Niranjana K.R.
B.E. (Mech), PGDM, SSBB, LA ISO9001 & AS9100, Member – PMI & QCFI
Email: niranjanakoodavalli@gmail.com
Agreements
24-08-2016 Author: Niranjana K R 2
References
1. Operations Management – An Integrated Approach, by R. Dan
Reid, Nada R. Sanders, 5th Edition, Wiley ,2012.
2. Operations Management For Competitive Advantage – 11th
edition – Richard B. Chase, F. Robert Jacobs, Nicholas J.
Aquilano
3. Operations Management, 10th edition Author(s): Jay Heizer,
Barry Render
24-08-2016 Author: Niranjana K R 3
Operations Management
Capacity Planning and Facility Location
Author: Prof. Niranjana K.R.
B.E. (Mech), PGDM, SSBB, LA ISO9001 & AS9100, Member – PMI & QCFI
Email: niranjanakoodavalli@gmail.com
Learning Objectives
After studying this chapter you should be able to
1. Define capacity planning.
2. Define location analysis.
3. Describe the relationship between capacity planning and
location and their importance to the organization.
4. Explain the steps involved in capacity planning and location
analysis.
5. Describe the decision support tools used in capacity
planning.
6. Identify key factors in location analysis.
7. Describe the decision support tools used in location analysis.
Author: Niranjana K R24-08-2016 5
Why Capacity?
• Have you ever signed up for a course at your college or
university only to find out that it is closed?
• Have you ever attended a class that was held in a remote
location and found that the room was overcrowded?
• Have ever tried to book a ticket for newly released
blockbuster and failed to buy a ticket?
• While using internet based applications have you felt slow
processing?
24-08-2016 Author: Niranjana K R 6
Capacity
• Capacity is the maximum output rate that can be achieved by
a facility.
• The facility may be an entire organization, a division, or only
one machine.
• Capacity Decisions
– Level 1: Strategic issues (Long-term)
• Ex: Company decides what investments in new facilities and equipment it
should make.
• They require large capital expenditures and will have a great impact on
the company’s ability to conduct business.
– Level 2: Tactical issues (Short-term)
• Planning of workforce, inventories, and day-to-day use of machines
Author: Niranjana K R 724-08-2016
Capacity planning
• Capacity planning is defined as the process of establishing the output rate
that can be achieved by a facility.
• If a company does not plan its capacity correctly, it may find that it either
does not have enough output capability to meet customer demands or
has too much capacity sitting idle.
• Ex: Bakery:
– Scenario 1 - Not having capacity ;
• Not having enough capacity would mean not being able to produce enough baked
goods to meet sales.
• It would often run out of stock, and customers might start going somewhere else.
• It would not be able to take advantage of the true demand available.
– Scenario 2 - Having too much capacity ;
• The bakery would incur the cost of an unnecessarily large facility that is not being
used,
• Much higher operating costs than necessary.
Author: Niranjana K R 824-08-2016
Measuring Capacity Examples
Author: Niranjana K R 9
• Each business can measure capacity in different ways
• Capacity can be measured using inputs or outputs.
• Capacity of facility Information
– Amount of available capacity,
– Effectiveness of capacity use.
24-08-2016
Measuring Available Capacity
• Design capacity:
– Defined as, the maximum output rate that can be achieved by a facility
under ideal conditions.
• Ex: A bakery can make 30 custom cakes per day when pushed at holiday time
– Sustainable for a relatively short period of time.
– Measures taken to achieve O/P rate – Overtime, overstaffing, max. use of
equipment, and subcontracting.
• Effective capacity:
– Defined as, the maximum output rate that can be sustained under normal
conditions
– Normal conditions include, -
• Realistic work schedules and breaks,
• Regular staff levels,
• Scheduled machine maintenance, and
• None of the temporary measures that are used to achieve design capacity.
– Ex: In a bakery, effective capacity is measured as 20 custom cakes per day
Author: Niranjana K R 1024-08-2016
• Capacity Utilization : - Measures how much of the
available capacity is actually being used.
• Compute Capacity Utilization:
Measuring Effectiveness of Capacity Use
24-08-2016 Author: Niranjana K R 11
Example of Computing Capacity Utilization: A bakery’s design capacity is 30
custom cakes per day. Currently the bakery is producing 28 cakes per day.
What is the bakery’s capacity utilization relative to both design and effective
capacity?
93%(100%)
30
28
(100%)
capacitydesign
outputactual
nUtilizatio
140%(100%)
20
28
(100%)
capacityeffective
outputactual
nUtilizatio
design
effective


Author: Niranjana K R 12
• The current utilization (28) is only slightly below its design capacity (30)
and considerably above its effective capacity (20)
• The bakery can only operate at this level for a short period of time
24-08-2016
Capacity Considerations
• The Best Operating Level is the output
that results in the lowest average unit
cost
• Economies of Scale:
– Where the cost per unit of output
drops as volume of output increases
– Spread the fixed costs of buildings &
equipment over multiple units, allow
bulk purchasing & handling of
material
• Diseconomies of Scale:
– Where the cost per unit rises as
volume increases
– Often caused by congestion
(overwhelming the process with too
much work-in-process) and
scheduling complexity
Author: Niranjana K R 1324-08-2016
Best Operating Level and Size
Author: Niranjana K R 14
• Alternative 1: Purchase one large facility, requiring one
large initial investment
• Alternative 2: Add capacity incrementally in smaller
chunks as needed
24-08-2016
Other Capacity Considerations
• Focused factories:
– Facilities that are small, specialized, and focused on a narrow set of
objectives.
• Plant within a plant (PWP):
– Extension of Focused factories for larger facility
– Segmenting larger operations into smaller operating units with
focused objectives
• Subcontractor networks:
– Outsource non-core items to free up capacity for what you do well
Author: Niranjana K R 1524-08-2016
Making Capacity Planning Decisions
The three-step procedure for making capacity
planning decisions is as follows:
1. Identify Capacity Requirements
2. Develop Capacity Alternatives
3. Evaluate Capacity Alternatives
Author: Niranjana K R 1624-08-2016
Step 1: Identifying capacity requirements
• Forecasting Capacity:
– Long-term capacity requirements based on future demand
– Identifying future demand based on forecasting
– Forecasting, at this level, relies on qualitative forecast models
• Executive opinion
• Delphi method
– Forecast and capacity decision must included strategic implications
• Capacity cushions
– Plan to underutilize capacity to provide flexibility
• Strategic Implications
– How much capacity a competitor might have
– Potential for overcapacity in industry a possible hazard
Author: Niranjana K R 1724-08-2016
Step 2: Developing & Evaluating Capacity Alternatives
• Capacity alternatives include
1. Could do nothing,
2. Expand large now (may included capacity cushion), or
3. Expand small now, with option to add later
Author: Niranjana K R 1824-08-2016
Step 3: Evaluate Capacity Alternatives
Decision trees: Diagramming technique which uses,-
– Decision points – points in time when decisions are made,
squares called nodes
– Decision alternatives – branches of the tree off the
decision nodes
– Chance events – events that could affect a decision,
branches or arrows leaving circular chance nodes
– Outcomes – each possible alternative listed
Author: Niranjana K R 1924-08-2016
Decision tree diagrams
Decision trees developed by
– Drawing from left to right
– Use squares to indicate decision points
– Use circles to indicate chance events
– Write the probability of each chance by the chance (sum of
associated chances = 100%)
– Write each alternative outcome in the right margin
Author: Niranjana K R 2024-08-2016
Example Using Decision Trees: A restaurant owner has determined that she needs to
expand her facility. The alternatives are to expand large now and risk smaller demand,
or expand on a smaller scale now knowing that she might need to expand again in three
years. Which alternative would be most attractive? (see notes)
Author: Niranjana K R 2124-08-2016
Evaluating the Decision Tree (1 of 2)
• Decision tree analysis utilizes expected value analysis (EVA)
• Expected Value (EV) = A weighted average of chance events,
where each chance event is given a probability of occurrence.
• Refer to previous slide
– At decision point 2, choose to expand to maximize profits
($200,000 > $150,000)
– Calculate expected value of small expansion:
• EVsmall = 0.30($80,000) + 0.70($200,000) = $164,000
– Calculate expected value of large expansion:
• EVlarge = 0.30($50,000) + 0.70($300,000) = $225,000
Author: Niranjana K R 2224-08-2016
Evaluating the Decision Tree (2 of 2)
• At decision point 1, compare alternatives & choose
the large expansion to maximize the expected profit:
– $225,000 > $164,000
• Choose large expansion despite the fact that there is
a 30% chance it’s the worst decision:
– Take the calculated risk!
Author: Niranjana K R 2324-08-2016
Location Analysis
• Location analysis - Techniques for determining location decisions.
– Three most important factors in real estate: Location.. Location.. Location
• Facility location is the process of identifying the best geographic location
for a service or production facility
• Facility location decisions are particularly important for two reasons.
– First, require long-term commitments in buildings and facilities, which means that
mistakes can be difficult to correct.
– Second, these decisions require sizable financial investment and can have a large impact
on operating costs and revenues.
• Poor location can result in
– High transportation costs,
– Inadequate supplies of raw materials and labour,
– Loss of competitive advantage, and financial loss.
• Businesses therefore have to think long and hard about where to locate a
new facility!
Author: Niranjana K R 2424-08-2016
Factors Affecting Location Decisions (1 of 3)
Author: Niranjana K R 2524-08-2016
Factors Affecting Location Decisions (2 of 3)
• Proximity to source of supply:
– Reduce transportation costs of perishable or bulky raw
materials
• Proximity to customers:
– High population areas, close to JIT partners
• Proximity to labor:
– Local wage rates, attitude toward unions, availability of
special skills (silicon valley)
Author: Niranjana K R 2624-08-2016
Factors Affecting Location Decisions (3 of 3)
• Community considerations:
– Local community’s attitude toward the facility (prisons,
utility plants, etc.)
• Site considerations:
– Local zoning & taxes, access to utilities, etc.
• Quality-of-life issues:
– Climate, cultural attractions, commuting time, etc.
• Other considerations:
– Options for future expansion, local competition, etc.
Author: Niranjana K R 2724-08-2016
Globalization – Should Firm Go Global?
Globalization is the process of locating facilities around the
world
• Potential advantages:
– Inside track to foreign markets, avoid trade barriers, gain access to
cheaper labor
• Potential disadvantages:
– Political risks may increase, loss of control of proprietary technology,
local infrastructure (roads & utilities) may be inadequate, high
inflation
• Other issues to consider:
– Language barriers, different laws & regulations, different business
cultures
Author: Niranjana K R 2824-08-2016
Making Location Decisions
• Analysis should follow 3 step process:
1. Step 1: Identify Dominant Location factors
2. Step 2: Develop Location alternatives
3. Step 3: Evaluate Locations alternatives
• Procedures for evaluation location alternatives include
– Factor rating method
– Load-distance model
– Center of gravity approach
– Break-even analysis
– Transportation method
Author: Niranjana K R 2924-08-2016
Factor Rating method ( 1 of 3)
• A procedure that can be used to evaluate multiple alternative
locations based on a number of selected factors.
• It is valuable because it helps decision makers structure their
opinions relative to the factors identified as important.
24-08-2016 Author: Niranjana K R 30
Factor Rating method ( 2 of 3)
• Steps:
– Step 1 : Identify dominant factors (e.g., proximity to market, access,
competition, quality of life).
– Step 2 : Assign weights to factors reflecting the importance of each
factor relative to the other factors. The sum of these weights must be
100.
– Step 3 : Select a scale by which to evaluate each location relative to
each factor. A commonly used scale is a five-point scale, with 1 being
poor and 5 excellent.
24-08-2016 Author: Niranjana K R 31
Factor Rating method ( 3 of 3)
• Steps (Continued) :
– Step 4 : Evaluate each alternative relative to each factor, using the
scale selected in Step 3. For example, if you chose to use a five-point
scale, a location that was excellent based on quality of life might get a
5 for that factor.
– Step 5 : For each factor and each location, multiply the weight of the
factor by the score for that factor and sum the results for each
alternative. This will give you a score for each alternative based on
how you have rated the factors and how you have weighted each of
the factors at each location.
– Step 6 Select the alternative with the highest score.
24-08-2016 Author: Niranjana K R 32
Factor Rating Example
Antonio’s Italian Restaurant:
Antonio is evaluating three different locations for his new Italian
restaurant. Costs are comparable at all three locations. He has
identified seven factors that he considers important and has
decided to use factor rating to evaluate his three location
alternatives based on a five-point scale, with 1 being poor and 5
excellent. Table shows Antonio’s factors, the weights he has
assigned to each factor, as well as the factor score for each factor
at each location.
24-08-2016 Author: Niranjana K R 33
• Calculate the rectilinear distance:
• Multiply by the number of loads between each site and the four cities
A Load-Distance Model Example: Matrix Manufacturing is considering where to locate
its warehouse in order to service its four Ohio stores located in Cleveland, Cincinnati,
Columbus, Dayton. Two sites are being considered; Mansfield and Springfield, Ohio.
Use the load-distance model to make the decision.
Author: Niranjana K R 34
miles4515401030dAB 
24-08-2016
Calculating the Load-Distance Score
for Springfield vs. Mansfield
•
Author: Niranjana K R 35
The load-distance score for Mansfield is higher than for Springfield. The
warehouse should be located in Springfield.
Computing the Load-Distance Score for Springfield
City Load Distance ld
Cleveland 15 20.5 307.5
Columbus 10 4.5 45
Cincinnati 12 7.5 90
Dayton 4 3.5 14
Total Load-Distance Score(456.5)
Computing the Load-Distance Score for Mansfield
City Load Distance ld
Cleveland 15 8 120
Columbus 10 8 80
Cincinnati 12 20 240
Dayton 4 16 64
Total Load-Distance Score(504)
24-08-2016
The Center of Gravity Approach
10.6
41
436
l
Yl
Y;7.9
41
325
l
Xl
X
i
ii
c.g.
i
ii
c.g. 




Author: Niranjana K R 36
• This approach requires that the analyst find the center of gravity of the
geographic area being considered
• Computing the Center of Gravity for Matrix Manufacturing
• Is there another possible warehouse location closer to the C.G. that should be
considered?? Why?
Computing the Center of Gravity for Matrix Manufacturing
Coordinates Load
Location (X,Y) (li) lixi liyi
Cleveland (11,22) 15 165 330
Columbus (10,7) 10 165 70
Cincinnati (4,1) 12 165 12
Dayton (3,6) 4 165 24
Total 41 325 436
24-08-2016
Break-Even Analysis
• Break-even analysis computes the amount of goods required to be sold
to just cover costs
• Break-even analysis includes fixed and variable costs
• Break-even analysis can be used for location analysis especially when the
costs of each location are known
Step 1: For each location, determine the fixed and variable costs
Step 2: Plot the total costs for each location on one graph
Step 3: Identify ranges of output for which each location has the lowest
total cost
Step 4: Solve algebraically for the break-even points over the identified
ranges
Author: Niranjana K R 3724-08-2016
Break-Even Analysis
• Remember the break even equations used for calculation total cost of
each location and for calculating the breakeven quantity Q.
– Total cost = F + cQ
– Total revenue = pQ
– Break-even is where Total Revenue = Total Cost
Q = F/(p-c)
Q = break-even quantity
p = price/unit
c = variable cost/unit
F = fixed cost
Author: Niranjana K R 3824-08-2016
Example using Break-even Analysis: Clean-Clothes Cleaners is
considering four possible sites for its new operation. They expect to
clean 10,000 garments. The table and graph below are used for the
analysis. Example 9.6 Using Break-Even Analysis
Location Fixed Cost Variable Cost Total Cost
A $350,000 $ 5(10,000) $400,000
B $170,000 $25(10,000) $420,000
C $100,000 $40(10,000) $500,000
D $250,000 $20(10,000) $450,000
Author: Niranjana K R 3924-08-2016
The Transportation Method
• Can be used to solve specific location problems
• Is discussed in detail in the supplement to this text
• Could be used to evaluate the cost impact of adding
potential location sites to the network of existing
facilities
• Could also be used to evaluate adding multiple new
sites or completely redesigning the network
Author: Niranjana K R 4024-08-2016
Capacity Planning & Facility Location within OM
• Decisions about capacity and location are highly dependent
on forecasts of demand (Ch 8).
• Capacity is also affected by operations strategy (Ch 2), as size
of capacity is a key element of organizational structure.
• Other operations decisions that are affected by capacity and
location are issues of job design and labor skills (Ch 11),
choice on the mix of labor and technology, as well as choices
on technology and automation (Ch 3).
Author: Niranjana K R 4124-08-2016
Capacity Planning and Facility Location
Across the Organization
• Capacity planning and location analysis affect operations
management and are important to many others
– Finance provides input to finalize capacity decisions
– Marketing impacted by the organizational capacity and location to
customers
Author: Niranjana K R 4224-08-2016
Chapter 9 Highlights (1 of 3)
• Capacity planning is deciding on the maximum output rate of a
facility
• Location analysis is deciding on the best location for a facility
• Capacity planning and location analysis decision are often made
simultaneously because the location of the facility is usually related
to its capacity.
• In both capacity planning and location analysis, managers must
follow three-step process to make good decision. The steps are
assessing needs, developing alternatives, and evaluating
alternatives.
• To choose between capacity planning alternatives managers may
use decision trees, which are a modeling tool for evaluating
independent decisions that must be made in sequence.
Author: Niranjana K R 4324-08-2016
Chapter 9 Highlights (2 of 3)
• Key factors in location analysis included proximity to
customers, transportation, source of labor,
community attitude, and proximity to supplies.
Service and manufacturing firms focus on different
factors. Profit-making and nonprofit organizations
also focus on different factors.
Author: Niranjana K R 4424-08-2016
Chapter 9 Highlights (3 of 3)
• Several tools can be used to facilitate location
analysis. Factor rating is a tool that helps managers
evaluate qualitative factors. The load-distance model
and center of gravity approach evaluate the location
decision based on distance. Break-even analysis is
used to evaluate location decisions based on cost
values. The transportation method is an excellent
tool for evaluating the cost impact of adding sites to
the network of current facilities.
Author: Niranjana K R 4524-08-2016
24-08-2016 Author: Niranjana K R 46

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Mba om 06_capacity_planningandfacilitylocation

  • 1. Operations Management Author: Prof. Niranjana K.R. B.E. (Mech), PGDM, SSBB, LA ISO9001 & AS9100, Member – PMI & QCFI Email: niranjanakoodavalli@gmail.com
  • 3. References 1. Operations Management – An Integrated Approach, by R. Dan Reid, Nada R. Sanders, 5th Edition, Wiley ,2012. 2. Operations Management For Competitive Advantage – 11th edition – Richard B. Chase, F. Robert Jacobs, Nicholas J. Aquilano 3. Operations Management, 10th edition Author(s): Jay Heizer, Barry Render 24-08-2016 Author: Niranjana K R 3
  • 4. Operations Management Capacity Planning and Facility Location Author: Prof. Niranjana K.R. B.E. (Mech), PGDM, SSBB, LA ISO9001 & AS9100, Member – PMI & QCFI Email: niranjanakoodavalli@gmail.com
  • 5. Learning Objectives After studying this chapter you should be able to 1. Define capacity planning. 2. Define location analysis. 3. Describe the relationship between capacity planning and location and their importance to the organization. 4. Explain the steps involved in capacity planning and location analysis. 5. Describe the decision support tools used in capacity planning. 6. Identify key factors in location analysis. 7. Describe the decision support tools used in location analysis. Author: Niranjana K R24-08-2016 5
  • 6. Why Capacity? • Have you ever signed up for a course at your college or university only to find out that it is closed? • Have you ever attended a class that was held in a remote location and found that the room was overcrowded? • Have ever tried to book a ticket for newly released blockbuster and failed to buy a ticket? • While using internet based applications have you felt slow processing? 24-08-2016 Author: Niranjana K R 6
  • 7. Capacity • Capacity is the maximum output rate that can be achieved by a facility. • The facility may be an entire organization, a division, or only one machine. • Capacity Decisions – Level 1: Strategic issues (Long-term) • Ex: Company decides what investments in new facilities and equipment it should make. • They require large capital expenditures and will have a great impact on the company’s ability to conduct business. – Level 2: Tactical issues (Short-term) • Planning of workforce, inventories, and day-to-day use of machines Author: Niranjana K R 724-08-2016
  • 8. Capacity planning • Capacity planning is defined as the process of establishing the output rate that can be achieved by a facility. • If a company does not plan its capacity correctly, it may find that it either does not have enough output capability to meet customer demands or has too much capacity sitting idle. • Ex: Bakery: – Scenario 1 - Not having capacity ; • Not having enough capacity would mean not being able to produce enough baked goods to meet sales. • It would often run out of stock, and customers might start going somewhere else. • It would not be able to take advantage of the true demand available. – Scenario 2 - Having too much capacity ; • The bakery would incur the cost of an unnecessarily large facility that is not being used, • Much higher operating costs than necessary. Author: Niranjana K R 824-08-2016
  • 9. Measuring Capacity Examples Author: Niranjana K R 9 • Each business can measure capacity in different ways • Capacity can be measured using inputs or outputs. • Capacity of facility Information – Amount of available capacity, – Effectiveness of capacity use. 24-08-2016
  • 10. Measuring Available Capacity • Design capacity: – Defined as, the maximum output rate that can be achieved by a facility under ideal conditions. • Ex: A bakery can make 30 custom cakes per day when pushed at holiday time – Sustainable for a relatively short period of time. – Measures taken to achieve O/P rate – Overtime, overstaffing, max. use of equipment, and subcontracting. • Effective capacity: – Defined as, the maximum output rate that can be sustained under normal conditions – Normal conditions include, - • Realistic work schedules and breaks, • Regular staff levels, • Scheduled machine maintenance, and • None of the temporary measures that are used to achieve design capacity. – Ex: In a bakery, effective capacity is measured as 20 custom cakes per day Author: Niranjana K R 1024-08-2016
  • 11. • Capacity Utilization : - Measures how much of the available capacity is actually being used. • Compute Capacity Utilization: Measuring Effectiveness of Capacity Use 24-08-2016 Author: Niranjana K R 11
  • 12. Example of Computing Capacity Utilization: A bakery’s design capacity is 30 custom cakes per day. Currently the bakery is producing 28 cakes per day. What is the bakery’s capacity utilization relative to both design and effective capacity? 93%(100%) 30 28 (100%) capacitydesign outputactual nUtilizatio 140%(100%) 20 28 (100%) capacityeffective outputactual nUtilizatio design effective   Author: Niranjana K R 12 • The current utilization (28) is only slightly below its design capacity (30) and considerably above its effective capacity (20) • The bakery can only operate at this level for a short period of time 24-08-2016
  • 13. Capacity Considerations • The Best Operating Level is the output that results in the lowest average unit cost • Economies of Scale: – Where the cost per unit of output drops as volume of output increases – Spread the fixed costs of buildings & equipment over multiple units, allow bulk purchasing & handling of material • Diseconomies of Scale: – Where the cost per unit rises as volume increases – Often caused by congestion (overwhelming the process with too much work-in-process) and scheduling complexity Author: Niranjana K R 1324-08-2016
  • 14. Best Operating Level and Size Author: Niranjana K R 14 • Alternative 1: Purchase one large facility, requiring one large initial investment • Alternative 2: Add capacity incrementally in smaller chunks as needed 24-08-2016
  • 15. Other Capacity Considerations • Focused factories: – Facilities that are small, specialized, and focused on a narrow set of objectives. • Plant within a plant (PWP): – Extension of Focused factories for larger facility – Segmenting larger operations into smaller operating units with focused objectives • Subcontractor networks: – Outsource non-core items to free up capacity for what you do well Author: Niranjana K R 1524-08-2016
  • 16. Making Capacity Planning Decisions The three-step procedure for making capacity planning decisions is as follows: 1. Identify Capacity Requirements 2. Develop Capacity Alternatives 3. Evaluate Capacity Alternatives Author: Niranjana K R 1624-08-2016
  • 17. Step 1: Identifying capacity requirements • Forecasting Capacity: – Long-term capacity requirements based on future demand – Identifying future demand based on forecasting – Forecasting, at this level, relies on qualitative forecast models • Executive opinion • Delphi method – Forecast and capacity decision must included strategic implications • Capacity cushions – Plan to underutilize capacity to provide flexibility • Strategic Implications – How much capacity a competitor might have – Potential for overcapacity in industry a possible hazard Author: Niranjana K R 1724-08-2016
  • 18. Step 2: Developing & Evaluating Capacity Alternatives • Capacity alternatives include 1. Could do nothing, 2. Expand large now (may included capacity cushion), or 3. Expand small now, with option to add later Author: Niranjana K R 1824-08-2016
  • 19. Step 3: Evaluate Capacity Alternatives Decision trees: Diagramming technique which uses,- – Decision points – points in time when decisions are made, squares called nodes – Decision alternatives – branches of the tree off the decision nodes – Chance events – events that could affect a decision, branches or arrows leaving circular chance nodes – Outcomes – each possible alternative listed Author: Niranjana K R 1924-08-2016
  • 20. Decision tree diagrams Decision trees developed by – Drawing from left to right – Use squares to indicate decision points – Use circles to indicate chance events – Write the probability of each chance by the chance (sum of associated chances = 100%) – Write each alternative outcome in the right margin Author: Niranjana K R 2024-08-2016
  • 21. Example Using Decision Trees: A restaurant owner has determined that she needs to expand her facility. The alternatives are to expand large now and risk smaller demand, or expand on a smaller scale now knowing that she might need to expand again in three years. Which alternative would be most attractive? (see notes) Author: Niranjana K R 2124-08-2016
  • 22. Evaluating the Decision Tree (1 of 2) • Decision tree analysis utilizes expected value analysis (EVA) • Expected Value (EV) = A weighted average of chance events, where each chance event is given a probability of occurrence. • Refer to previous slide – At decision point 2, choose to expand to maximize profits ($200,000 > $150,000) – Calculate expected value of small expansion: • EVsmall = 0.30($80,000) + 0.70($200,000) = $164,000 – Calculate expected value of large expansion: • EVlarge = 0.30($50,000) + 0.70($300,000) = $225,000 Author: Niranjana K R 2224-08-2016
  • 23. Evaluating the Decision Tree (2 of 2) • At decision point 1, compare alternatives & choose the large expansion to maximize the expected profit: – $225,000 > $164,000 • Choose large expansion despite the fact that there is a 30% chance it’s the worst decision: – Take the calculated risk! Author: Niranjana K R 2324-08-2016
  • 24. Location Analysis • Location analysis - Techniques for determining location decisions. – Three most important factors in real estate: Location.. Location.. Location • Facility location is the process of identifying the best geographic location for a service or production facility • Facility location decisions are particularly important for two reasons. – First, require long-term commitments in buildings and facilities, which means that mistakes can be difficult to correct. – Second, these decisions require sizable financial investment and can have a large impact on operating costs and revenues. • Poor location can result in – High transportation costs, – Inadequate supplies of raw materials and labour, – Loss of competitive advantage, and financial loss. • Businesses therefore have to think long and hard about where to locate a new facility! Author: Niranjana K R 2424-08-2016
  • 25. Factors Affecting Location Decisions (1 of 3) Author: Niranjana K R 2524-08-2016
  • 26. Factors Affecting Location Decisions (2 of 3) • Proximity to source of supply: – Reduce transportation costs of perishable or bulky raw materials • Proximity to customers: – High population areas, close to JIT partners • Proximity to labor: – Local wage rates, attitude toward unions, availability of special skills (silicon valley) Author: Niranjana K R 2624-08-2016
  • 27. Factors Affecting Location Decisions (3 of 3) • Community considerations: – Local community’s attitude toward the facility (prisons, utility plants, etc.) • Site considerations: – Local zoning & taxes, access to utilities, etc. • Quality-of-life issues: – Climate, cultural attractions, commuting time, etc. • Other considerations: – Options for future expansion, local competition, etc. Author: Niranjana K R 2724-08-2016
  • 28. Globalization – Should Firm Go Global? Globalization is the process of locating facilities around the world • Potential advantages: – Inside track to foreign markets, avoid trade barriers, gain access to cheaper labor • Potential disadvantages: – Political risks may increase, loss of control of proprietary technology, local infrastructure (roads & utilities) may be inadequate, high inflation • Other issues to consider: – Language barriers, different laws & regulations, different business cultures Author: Niranjana K R 2824-08-2016
  • 29. Making Location Decisions • Analysis should follow 3 step process: 1. Step 1: Identify Dominant Location factors 2. Step 2: Develop Location alternatives 3. Step 3: Evaluate Locations alternatives • Procedures for evaluation location alternatives include – Factor rating method – Load-distance model – Center of gravity approach – Break-even analysis – Transportation method Author: Niranjana K R 2924-08-2016
  • 30. Factor Rating method ( 1 of 3) • A procedure that can be used to evaluate multiple alternative locations based on a number of selected factors. • It is valuable because it helps decision makers structure their opinions relative to the factors identified as important. 24-08-2016 Author: Niranjana K R 30
  • 31. Factor Rating method ( 2 of 3) • Steps: – Step 1 : Identify dominant factors (e.g., proximity to market, access, competition, quality of life). – Step 2 : Assign weights to factors reflecting the importance of each factor relative to the other factors. The sum of these weights must be 100. – Step 3 : Select a scale by which to evaluate each location relative to each factor. A commonly used scale is a five-point scale, with 1 being poor and 5 excellent. 24-08-2016 Author: Niranjana K R 31
  • 32. Factor Rating method ( 3 of 3) • Steps (Continued) : – Step 4 : Evaluate each alternative relative to each factor, using the scale selected in Step 3. For example, if you chose to use a five-point scale, a location that was excellent based on quality of life might get a 5 for that factor. – Step 5 : For each factor and each location, multiply the weight of the factor by the score for that factor and sum the results for each alternative. This will give you a score for each alternative based on how you have rated the factors and how you have weighted each of the factors at each location. – Step 6 Select the alternative with the highest score. 24-08-2016 Author: Niranjana K R 32
  • 33. Factor Rating Example Antonio’s Italian Restaurant: Antonio is evaluating three different locations for his new Italian restaurant. Costs are comparable at all three locations. He has identified seven factors that he considers important and has decided to use factor rating to evaluate his three location alternatives based on a five-point scale, with 1 being poor and 5 excellent. Table shows Antonio’s factors, the weights he has assigned to each factor, as well as the factor score for each factor at each location. 24-08-2016 Author: Niranjana K R 33
  • 34. • Calculate the rectilinear distance: • Multiply by the number of loads between each site and the four cities A Load-Distance Model Example: Matrix Manufacturing is considering where to locate its warehouse in order to service its four Ohio stores located in Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus, Dayton. Two sites are being considered; Mansfield and Springfield, Ohio. Use the load-distance model to make the decision. Author: Niranjana K R 34 miles4515401030dAB  24-08-2016
  • 35. Calculating the Load-Distance Score for Springfield vs. Mansfield • Author: Niranjana K R 35 The load-distance score for Mansfield is higher than for Springfield. The warehouse should be located in Springfield. Computing the Load-Distance Score for Springfield City Load Distance ld Cleveland 15 20.5 307.5 Columbus 10 4.5 45 Cincinnati 12 7.5 90 Dayton 4 3.5 14 Total Load-Distance Score(456.5) Computing the Load-Distance Score for Mansfield City Load Distance ld Cleveland 15 8 120 Columbus 10 8 80 Cincinnati 12 20 240 Dayton 4 16 64 Total Load-Distance Score(504) 24-08-2016
  • 36. The Center of Gravity Approach 10.6 41 436 l Yl Y;7.9 41 325 l Xl X i ii c.g. i ii c.g.      Author: Niranjana K R 36 • This approach requires that the analyst find the center of gravity of the geographic area being considered • Computing the Center of Gravity for Matrix Manufacturing • Is there another possible warehouse location closer to the C.G. that should be considered?? Why? Computing the Center of Gravity for Matrix Manufacturing Coordinates Load Location (X,Y) (li) lixi liyi Cleveland (11,22) 15 165 330 Columbus (10,7) 10 165 70 Cincinnati (4,1) 12 165 12 Dayton (3,6) 4 165 24 Total 41 325 436 24-08-2016
  • 37. Break-Even Analysis • Break-even analysis computes the amount of goods required to be sold to just cover costs • Break-even analysis includes fixed and variable costs • Break-even analysis can be used for location analysis especially when the costs of each location are known Step 1: For each location, determine the fixed and variable costs Step 2: Plot the total costs for each location on one graph Step 3: Identify ranges of output for which each location has the lowest total cost Step 4: Solve algebraically for the break-even points over the identified ranges Author: Niranjana K R 3724-08-2016
  • 38. Break-Even Analysis • Remember the break even equations used for calculation total cost of each location and for calculating the breakeven quantity Q. – Total cost = F + cQ – Total revenue = pQ – Break-even is where Total Revenue = Total Cost Q = F/(p-c) Q = break-even quantity p = price/unit c = variable cost/unit F = fixed cost Author: Niranjana K R 3824-08-2016
  • 39. Example using Break-even Analysis: Clean-Clothes Cleaners is considering four possible sites for its new operation. They expect to clean 10,000 garments. The table and graph below are used for the analysis. Example 9.6 Using Break-Even Analysis Location Fixed Cost Variable Cost Total Cost A $350,000 $ 5(10,000) $400,000 B $170,000 $25(10,000) $420,000 C $100,000 $40(10,000) $500,000 D $250,000 $20(10,000) $450,000 Author: Niranjana K R 3924-08-2016
  • 40. The Transportation Method • Can be used to solve specific location problems • Is discussed in detail in the supplement to this text • Could be used to evaluate the cost impact of adding potential location sites to the network of existing facilities • Could also be used to evaluate adding multiple new sites or completely redesigning the network Author: Niranjana K R 4024-08-2016
  • 41. Capacity Planning & Facility Location within OM • Decisions about capacity and location are highly dependent on forecasts of demand (Ch 8). • Capacity is also affected by operations strategy (Ch 2), as size of capacity is a key element of organizational structure. • Other operations decisions that are affected by capacity and location are issues of job design and labor skills (Ch 11), choice on the mix of labor and technology, as well as choices on technology and automation (Ch 3). Author: Niranjana K R 4124-08-2016
  • 42. Capacity Planning and Facility Location Across the Organization • Capacity planning and location analysis affect operations management and are important to many others – Finance provides input to finalize capacity decisions – Marketing impacted by the organizational capacity and location to customers Author: Niranjana K R 4224-08-2016
  • 43. Chapter 9 Highlights (1 of 3) • Capacity planning is deciding on the maximum output rate of a facility • Location analysis is deciding on the best location for a facility • Capacity planning and location analysis decision are often made simultaneously because the location of the facility is usually related to its capacity. • In both capacity planning and location analysis, managers must follow three-step process to make good decision. The steps are assessing needs, developing alternatives, and evaluating alternatives. • To choose between capacity planning alternatives managers may use decision trees, which are a modeling tool for evaluating independent decisions that must be made in sequence. Author: Niranjana K R 4324-08-2016
  • 44. Chapter 9 Highlights (2 of 3) • Key factors in location analysis included proximity to customers, transportation, source of labor, community attitude, and proximity to supplies. Service and manufacturing firms focus on different factors. Profit-making and nonprofit organizations also focus on different factors. Author: Niranjana K R 4424-08-2016
  • 45. Chapter 9 Highlights (3 of 3) • Several tools can be used to facilitate location analysis. Factor rating is a tool that helps managers evaluate qualitative factors. The load-distance model and center of gravity approach evaluate the location decision based on distance. Break-even analysis is used to evaluate location decisions based on cost values. The transportation method is an excellent tool for evaluating the cost impact of adding sites to the network of current facilities. Author: Niranjana K R 4524-08-2016