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Market Outlook
                                                                                                                                         India Research
                                                                                                                                     September 30, 2010

Dealer’s Diary                                                                                                Domestic Indices      Chg (%)       (Pts)   (Close)

The markets opened on an upbeat note, as domestic bourses witnessed a gap                                     BSE Sensex             -0.7%     (148.5) 19,956
up opening due to strength in the Asian bourses. The key benchmark indices,                                   Nifty                  -0.6%      (38.2)     5,991
after opening the session on a strong note, slipped into the negative zone in                                 MID CAP                -0.7%      (54.4)     8,104
mid-morning trade and continued to trade below the baseline in early                                          SMALL CAP              -0.5%      (49.3) 10,235
afternoon trade even though European stocks edged higher in early trade.                                      BSE HC                  0.0%         1.4     6,001
Losses extended in mid-afternoon trade with European stocks reversing initial                                 BSE PSU                -0.9%      (95.8) 10,332
gains. Investors sold metal, realty, consumer durables and FMCG stocks. The                                   BANKEX                 -0.3%      (38.7) 13,919
Sensex and Nifty closed with losses of 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively. BSE mid-                                  AUTO                    0.1%         7.8     9,577
cap and small-cap indices lost 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. Among the front
                                                                                                              METAL                  -1.9%     (327.1) 16,727
liners, Tata Motors, Infosys, Hero Honda, Tata Steel and SBI gained 0–3%,
                                                                                                              OIL & GAS              -0.8%      (86.7) 10,570
while Sterlite Ind., ITC, Bharti Airtel, Maruti Suzuki and ONGC lost 2–9%.
                                                                                                              BSE IT                  0.2%       14.3      5,932
Among mid caps, Karnataka Bank, Kwality Dairy, Alstom Projects, Eicher Motors
                                                                                                              Global Indices        Chg (%)       (Pts)   (Close)
and Apollo Hospital gained 3–5%, while Sigrun Holdins, Shriram City Union
Finance, IVRCL Infra, India Bulls Power and Gammon India lost 3–5%.                                           Dow Jones               -0.2%    (22.9)     10,835
                                                                                                              NASDAQ                  -0.1%      (3.0)     2,377
Markets Today                                                                                                 FTSE                    -0.2%       9.2      5,569
The trend deciding level for the day is 20038 / 6014 levels. If NIFTY trades                                  Nikkei                   0.7%      63.6      9,559
above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a                                 Hang Seng                1.2%    268.7      22,379
further rally up to 20153 – 20349 / 6049 – 6106 levels. However, if NIFTY                                     Straits Times            0.3%       8.7      3,106
trades below 20038 / 6014 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may                              Shanghai Com             0.0%      (0.7)     2,611
correct up to 19842 – 19727 / 5957 – 5922 levels.

                                                                                                              Indian ADRs           Chg (%)      (Pts)    (Close)
        Indices                 S2                     S1                  R1                    R2           Infosys                 -0.2%      (0.1)     $67.1
        SENSEX               19,727                   19,842              20,153                20,349        Wipro                    1.2%       0.2      $14.7
         NIFTY                5,922                   5,957               6,049                 6,106         Satyam                 -10.1%      (0.5)      $4.1
                                                                                                              ICICI Bank              -0.7%      (0.3)     $49.2
News Analysis                                                                                                 HDFC Bank                1.0%       1.8     $182.8
        AREVA T&D India secures Rs150cr contract
        TCS wins a contract from AGL
                                                                                                              Advances / Declines               BSE          NSE
        Mahindra Satyam announces its reinstated numbers
        Shoppers Stop raises Rs130cr via QIP                                                                  Advances                        1,121          406
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page.                                                           Declines                        1,887          952
                                                                                                              Unchanged                         83               43
  Net Inflows (September 28, 2010)
  Rs cr              Purch         Sales                          Net              MTD                YTD
  FII                    3,541               2,647               895            24,440            83,566      Volumes (Rs cr)

  MFs                       467              1,035              (568)           (5,606)          (21,399)     BSE                                          4,719
                                                                                                              NSE                                         15,532
  FII Derivatives (September 29, 2010)
                                                                                                    Open
  Rs cr                                      Purch              Sales               Net
                                                                                                  Interest
  Index Futures                             6,667              7,085               (418)          21,569
  Stock Futures                             8,324              8,991               (667)          42,730

  Gainers / Losers
                           Gainers                                                 Losers
                              Price              chg                                  Price            chg
  Company                                                 Company
                               (Rs)              (%)                                   (Rs)             (%)
  GSK Pharma                 2,244               4.2      Sterlite Ind.                162            (8.5)
  Apollo Hospital                 450            3.8      IVRCL Infra                 164             (3.9)
  Lanco Infra.                     72            3.0      IB Power                         29         (3.7)
  Godrej Cons.                    408            2.9      Hind Zinc                 1,091             (3.4)
                                                                                                                                                             1
  Bajaj Auto                   1,489             2.7      IOC                         431             (3.4)


Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                                                  Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
Market Outlook | India Research


                     AREVA T&D India secures Rs150cr contract

                     AREVA T&D secured orders worth Rs150cr from Indiabulls for its upcoming power projects
                     at Nandgaonpeth, Amravati District (5x270 MW) and Sinnar, Nasik district (5x270 MW).
                     Under the contract, AREVA T&D India will supply a power transformer package with
                     5x330MVA, 400kV generator transformers; 2x63MVA, 400kV station transformers; and
                     10x20MVA unit transformers, including supervision of erection, testing and commissioning.
                     The equipments are expected to be delivered by the second half of CY2012. We maintain
                     our Sell rating on the stock.



                     TCS wins a contract from Australia based energy company AGL

                     AGL Energy Ltd. (AGL), Australia’s leading renewal energy company, has signed a five-
                     year infrastructure management contract worth more than AU $50mn with TCS. AGL is an
                     existing client of TCS, with 650 resources dedicated to deliver services related to
                     consulting, implementation, assurance, outsourcing and support. With managed services
                     also extended to TCS, it has now become a full-service provider for AGL. Though the
                     contract is small, it envisages TCS’s focus on emerging geographies as well as growth
                     verticals like energy and utilities. We remain positive on TCS. However, on account of rich
                     valuations, we recommend Neutral to the stock.



                     Mahindra Satyam announces its reinstated numbers

                     Mahindra Satyam reported its FY2009 and FY2010 numbers, which underperformed the
                     market’s expectations. The company reported revenue of US $1.1bn for FY2010, which
                     was in line with our estimates. The company’s revenue slumped by 38%, whereas the
                     headcount went down by 40% (yoy) to 27,000 from 45,000. Also, the company lost 194
                     clients with majority of them in the BFSI space; however, the company managed to add 44
                     clients in FY2010 v/s FY2009. The stock has rallied by more than 23% in the past month in
                     anticipation of revenue run rate of over US $1.2bn and EBITDA margins of 15–18%. The
                     stock is currently trading at 16.4x FY2012E EPS of Rs6.2, which is on a higher side. When
                     we value TechMahindra on a standalone basis at 12x FY2012E EPS of Rs53.2 and add
                     value of stake in Satyam with holding discount of 23% to its current market cap
                     (discounting back the over-optimism), TechMahindra still looks attractive on risk-reward
                     basis. Hence, we recommend a switch from Mahindra Satyam to TechMahindra.



                     Shoppers Stop raises Rs130cr via QIP

                     Shoppers Stop (SSL) has raised Rs130cr by selling shares to large institutional investors
                     through a qualified institutional placement (QIP). The company sold 20lakh shares in the
                     QIP at an average price of Rs649 per share. The funds would be used for expansion of the
                     group’s Shoppers Stop and Hypercity stores. SSL plans to add 8–12 stores under the
                     Shoppers Stop banner and 3–5 stores under the Hypercity banner in FY2011. We expect
                     the move to be positive from the company’s growth perspective. However, considering the
                     recent run up in the share price, we maintain our Neutral rating on SSL.




September 30, 2010                                                                                            2
Market Outlook | India Research



                       Economic and Political News

                         Core infrastructure industries grow by 3.7% in August
                         IRDA stops insurers from providing credit default insurance
                         CAG may get to audit private telco’s books


                        Corporate News

                        Power Grid's Rs8,600cr FPO to hit the market in November
                        Punj Lloyd's Group Co. enters into partnering pact with Nuvia India
                        Reliance Capital picks up 4.98% stake in Trinethra Infra
                        Lupin acquires majority stake in Australian firm

                     Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint




Event for the day
Centrum Capital                   Results




September 30, 2010                                                                                                       3
Market Outlook | India Research


Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800                                E-mail: research@angeltrade.com                                Website: www.angeltrade.com


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decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are
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Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals.

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September 30, 2010                                                                                                                                                                4

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Market Outlook - September 30, 2010

  • 1. Market Outlook India Research September 30, 2010 Dealer’s Diary Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close) The markets opened on an upbeat note, as domestic bourses witnessed a gap BSE Sensex -0.7% (148.5) 19,956 up opening due to strength in the Asian bourses. The key benchmark indices, Nifty -0.6% (38.2) 5,991 after opening the session on a strong note, slipped into the negative zone in MID CAP -0.7% (54.4) 8,104 mid-morning trade and continued to trade below the baseline in early SMALL CAP -0.5% (49.3) 10,235 afternoon trade even though European stocks edged higher in early trade. BSE HC 0.0% 1.4 6,001 Losses extended in mid-afternoon trade with European stocks reversing initial BSE PSU -0.9% (95.8) 10,332 gains. Investors sold metal, realty, consumer durables and FMCG stocks. The BANKEX -0.3% (38.7) 13,919 Sensex and Nifty closed with losses of 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively. BSE mid- AUTO 0.1% 7.8 9,577 cap and small-cap indices lost 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. Among the front METAL -1.9% (327.1) 16,727 liners, Tata Motors, Infosys, Hero Honda, Tata Steel and SBI gained 0–3%, OIL & GAS -0.8% (86.7) 10,570 while Sterlite Ind., ITC, Bharti Airtel, Maruti Suzuki and ONGC lost 2–9%. BSE IT 0.2% 14.3 5,932 Among mid caps, Karnataka Bank, Kwality Dairy, Alstom Projects, Eicher Motors Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close) and Apollo Hospital gained 3–5%, while Sigrun Holdins, Shriram City Union Finance, IVRCL Infra, India Bulls Power and Gammon India lost 3–5%. Dow Jones -0.2% (22.9) 10,835 NASDAQ -0.1% (3.0) 2,377 Markets Today FTSE -0.2% 9.2 5,569 The trend deciding level for the day is 20038 / 6014 levels. If NIFTY trades Nikkei 0.7% 63.6 9,559 above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a Hang Seng 1.2% 268.7 22,379 further rally up to 20153 – 20349 / 6049 – 6106 levels. However, if NIFTY Straits Times 0.3% 8.7 3,106 trades below 20038 / 6014 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may Shanghai Com 0.0% (0.7) 2,611 correct up to 19842 – 19727 / 5957 – 5922 levels. Indian ADRs Chg (%) (Pts) (Close) Indices S2 S1 R1 R2 Infosys -0.2% (0.1) $67.1 SENSEX 19,727 19,842 20,153 20,349 Wipro 1.2% 0.2 $14.7 NIFTY 5,922 5,957 6,049 6,106 Satyam -10.1% (0.5) $4.1 ICICI Bank -0.7% (0.3) $49.2 News Analysis HDFC Bank 1.0% 1.8 $182.8 AREVA T&D India secures Rs150cr contract TCS wins a contract from AGL Advances / Declines BSE NSE Mahindra Satyam announces its reinstated numbers Shoppers Stop raises Rs130cr via QIP Advances 1,121 406 Refer detailed news analysis on the following page. Declines 1,887 952 Unchanged 83 43 Net Inflows (September 28, 2010) Rs cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTD FII 3,541 2,647 895 24,440 83,566 Volumes (Rs cr) MFs 467 1,035 (568) (5,606) (21,399) BSE 4,719 NSE 15,532 FII Derivatives (September 29, 2010) Open Rs cr Purch Sales Net Interest Index Futures 6,667 7,085 (418) 21,569 Stock Futures 8,324 8,991 (667) 42,730 Gainers / Losers Gainers Losers Price chg Price chg Company Company (Rs) (%) (Rs) (%) GSK Pharma 2,244 4.2 Sterlite Ind. 162 (8.5) Apollo Hospital 450 3.8 IVRCL Infra 164 (3.9) Lanco Infra. 72 3.0 IB Power 29 (3.7) Godrej Cons. 408 2.9 Hind Zinc 1,091 (3.4) 1 Bajaj Auto 1,489 2.7 IOC 431 (3.4) Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
  • 2. Market Outlook | India Research AREVA T&D India secures Rs150cr contract AREVA T&D secured orders worth Rs150cr from Indiabulls for its upcoming power projects at Nandgaonpeth, Amravati District (5x270 MW) and Sinnar, Nasik district (5x270 MW). Under the contract, AREVA T&D India will supply a power transformer package with 5x330MVA, 400kV generator transformers; 2x63MVA, 400kV station transformers; and 10x20MVA unit transformers, including supervision of erection, testing and commissioning. The equipments are expected to be delivered by the second half of CY2012. We maintain our Sell rating on the stock. TCS wins a contract from Australia based energy company AGL AGL Energy Ltd. (AGL), Australia’s leading renewal energy company, has signed a five- year infrastructure management contract worth more than AU $50mn with TCS. AGL is an existing client of TCS, with 650 resources dedicated to deliver services related to consulting, implementation, assurance, outsourcing and support. With managed services also extended to TCS, it has now become a full-service provider for AGL. Though the contract is small, it envisages TCS’s focus on emerging geographies as well as growth verticals like energy and utilities. We remain positive on TCS. However, on account of rich valuations, we recommend Neutral to the stock. Mahindra Satyam announces its reinstated numbers Mahindra Satyam reported its FY2009 and FY2010 numbers, which underperformed the market’s expectations. The company reported revenue of US $1.1bn for FY2010, which was in line with our estimates. The company’s revenue slumped by 38%, whereas the headcount went down by 40% (yoy) to 27,000 from 45,000. Also, the company lost 194 clients with majority of them in the BFSI space; however, the company managed to add 44 clients in FY2010 v/s FY2009. The stock has rallied by more than 23% in the past month in anticipation of revenue run rate of over US $1.2bn and EBITDA margins of 15–18%. The stock is currently trading at 16.4x FY2012E EPS of Rs6.2, which is on a higher side. When we value TechMahindra on a standalone basis at 12x FY2012E EPS of Rs53.2 and add value of stake in Satyam with holding discount of 23% to its current market cap (discounting back the over-optimism), TechMahindra still looks attractive on risk-reward basis. Hence, we recommend a switch from Mahindra Satyam to TechMahindra. Shoppers Stop raises Rs130cr via QIP Shoppers Stop (SSL) has raised Rs130cr by selling shares to large institutional investors through a qualified institutional placement (QIP). The company sold 20lakh shares in the QIP at an average price of Rs649 per share. The funds would be used for expansion of the group’s Shoppers Stop and Hypercity stores. SSL plans to add 8–12 stores under the Shoppers Stop banner and 3–5 stores under the Hypercity banner in FY2011. We expect the move to be positive from the company’s growth perspective. However, considering the recent run up in the share price, we maintain our Neutral rating on SSL. September 30, 2010 2
  • 3. Market Outlook | India Research Economic and Political News Core infrastructure industries grow by 3.7% in August IRDA stops insurers from providing credit default insurance CAG may get to audit private telco’s books Corporate News Power Grid's Rs8,600cr FPO to hit the market in November Punj Lloyd's Group Co. enters into partnering pact with Nuvia India Reliance Capital picks up 4.98% stake in Trinethra Infra Lupin acquires majority stake in Australian firm Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint Event for the day Centrum Capital Results September 30, 2010 3
  • 4. Market Outlook | India Research Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel: (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800 Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 September 30, 2010 4