Todd Litman of the Victoria Transportation Institute reports on the history of desirability of living locations, and how our automobile dependent society has fueled sprawl development. Mr. Litman also outlines the benefits of Smart Growth development and how growing trends, "changing attitudes about urban living," "increasing health and environmental concerns" and "shifting assumptions about suburban real estate values" are making headway in support of transportation and planning reforms that can transform our regions and communities into healthier, more functional, and beautiful places.

1. Where We Want To Be: Home Location Preferences And Their Implications For New Urbanism Todd Litman Victoria Transport Policy Institute Presented at the CNU Transportation Summit Portland, Oregon 5 November 2009

4. Life Satisfaction

7. OECD Travel Trends

8. Aging Population 1990 2050

9. Suburbanization During the Twentieth Century the U.S. suburbanized. This has peaked. Urban areas are now growing and suburban areas are now urbanizing.

10. U.S. Housing Units By Type

11. Location Preferences (2002) Joint Survey: Survey Suggests Market-Based Vision of Smart Growth , National Association of Realtors and National Association of Home Builders, 2002

12. Neighborhood Preferences (2002) Many households want highway access and good walking and cycling facilities.

13. Although prospective home buyers preferred single-family homes, many would choose smaller lots and higher density neighborhoods to improve accessibility and transport options. Housing Preferences (PPIC 2002) Housing Type Want to live in a single-family, detached home. 86% Actually live in a single-family, detached home. 65% Housing Type Tradeoff Would you choose to live in a small house with a small backyard, if it means you have a short commute to work? 49% Would you choose to live in a large home with a large backyard, even if it means you would have a long commute to work? 47% Neighborhood Type Tradeoff Would you choose to live in a mixed-use neighborhoods where you can walk to stores, schools, and services? 47% Would you choose to live in a residential-only neighborhood, even if it means you have to drive a car to stores, schools and services? 50% Public Transit Access Tradeoff Would you choose to live in a high-density neighborhood where it was convenient to use public transit when you travel locally? 31% Would you choose to live in a low-density neighborhood where you would have to drive your car when you travel locally? 66%

15. Factors Affecting Preferences Factor Past (1950-2000) Current (2000-2010) Future (2010+) Function Rising incomes, increased vehicle ownership, declining real fuel prices, and most families with young children favored larger lot, single-family homes. Incomes and vehicle ownership are stagnant, real fuel prices are starting to increase. Household sizes have declined and fewer have young children. Incomes and vehicle ownership are likely to stay stagnant, real fuel prices will increase. Aging population and fewer households with children. Economic and social conditions Middle-class flight concentrated poverty and social problems in cities. Suburbs were generally safer and had better public services. Many cities are attracting more middle-class families. Cities tend to have equal or better services, and are safer places to live than suburbs. Trends favoring cities are likely to continue. Cities are inherently more resource efficient and economically productive. Status Suburban living was considered prestigious and appropriate (healthier and more responsible). Urban living is increasingly considered prestigious, healthier and more responsible than suburban living. Trends favoring cities are likely to continue. Investment Cities homes were considered unreliable investments. In recent years, urban housing prices have proven more durable than sprawl housing. The factors describe above will probably continue to increase new urban investment value.

17. “ Emerging Trends in Real Estate” “ Energy prices and road congestion accelerate the move back into metropolitan-area interiors as more people crave greater convenience in their lives. They want to live closer to work and shopping without the hassle of car dependence… Apartment and townhouse living looks more attractive, especially to singles and empty nesters—high utility bills, gasoline expenses, car payments, and rising property taxes make suburban-edge McMansion lifestyles decidedly less economical.” (Urban Land Institute 2009)

18. Housing Demand By Type (Nelson 2006) The current supply of large-lot suburban is approximately adequate to satisfy demand for the next two decades. Prices for such housing is currently depresses and a significant amount will become available as baby boomers downsize. Most growth will be in smaller-lot and multi-family housing.

19. Smart Growth Versus Sprawl

22. VMT Vs. GDP (National Trends)

23. VMT Vs. GDP (U.S. States)

24. GDP Vs. Public Transit Travel

26. Affordability

27. “ A Heavy Load” Report

28. Housing Foreclosures Housing foreclosure rates are much higher in automobile-dependent locations. Houston Denver

29. Traffic Fatalities

30. Nonmotorized Travel Per capita traffic fatality rates tend to decline as nonmotorized travel increases.

31. Smart Growth Safety Impacts

35. Land Use Impacts On Travel

36. Obesity Rates Versus Mode Split

37. Healthy Community Rating Feature How to Calculate Points Portion of local streets with sidewalks. Range from 0 points for no street within ½ kilometer have sidewalks up to 10 points for all streets have sidewalks. Portion of local streets and paths that accommodate wheelchairs. Range from 0 points for no street within ½ kilometer with sidewalks that accommodate wheelchairs, up to 10 points for all streets with sidewalks that accommodate wheelchairs. Ease of street crossing Portion of streets that can be crossed by pedestrians with minimal risk, discomfort or delay. Quality of street environments Portion of streets or public pathways that are attractive pedestrian environments, rated from 0 to 10. Neighborhood services One point for each of the following located within ½ kilometer convenient walking distance, up to 10 maximum: grocery store, restaurant, video rental shop, public park, recreation center, library. Public transit service quantity Number of peak period buses per hour within ½ kilometer, up to 10 maximum. Public transit service quality Portion of peak-period transit vehicles that are clean and comfortable from 0 (all vehicles are dirty or crowded) up to 10 (all vehicles are clean and have seats). Local traffic speeds Portion of vehicle traffic within 1-kilometer that have speeds under 40 kilometers per hour, from 10 (100%) to 0 (virtually none). Air Pollution 10 minus one for each exceedance of air quality standards.