Dont worry just enjoy your chocolate.

1. Seventh Multi-year Expert Meeting on
Commodities and Development
15-16 April 2015
Geneva
Latest developments in the global cocoa market
By
Jean-Marc Anga
International Cocoa Organization
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect
the views of UNCTAD.

2. International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | April 2015
UNCTAD GLOBAL COMMODITIES FORUM
Geneva, 15 April 2015
Latest developments in the global cocoa market
Daily QKCc1 21/09/2005 - 29/08/2014 (NYC)
VltyOHLC, QKCc1, Trade Price, 0.0, 10, 365.0
05/01/2010, 22.93
BarHL, QKCc1, Trade Price
05/01/2010, 142.70, 140.40, +2.45, (+1.79%)
BBand, QKCc1, Trade Price(Last), 20, Simple, 2.0
05/01/2010, 149.64, 142.35, 135.06
Value
USc
Lbs
Auto
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
135.50
55.74
146.00
125.19
104.39
248.94
O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Tue 05/01/2010
Jean-Marc Anga, Executive Director, ICCO - jeanmarc.anga@icco.org

3. International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | April 2015
“We'll run out of cocoa in just SEVEN years!”
“The world will officially run out on October 2, 2020”
Star Sunday – 6 October 2013
“No more chocolates by 2020!”
“Chocolate bars may get replaced by slabs of palm
oil and vegetable fats packed with raisins and nougat by 2020 ”
The Times of India – 13 April 2014
The “choco-apocalypse 2020”
2
“Don’t panic, but we could be running out of chocolate”
“By 2020, the world could see a chocolate deficit of 1m tonnes”
The Telegraph – 17 November 2014
Enjoy those Easter eggs while you can: chocolate prices are
expected to double by 2020 as cocoa supplies run low.
The New Zealand Herald; 6 April 2015

4. International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | April 2015
3
Development of cocoa prices, in relation to cocoa availability
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
$11,000
$12,000
$13,000
$14,000
$15,000
Crop year (Oct-Sep)
Stocks-to-grindings ratio (right scale) ICCO daily price US$/tonne (current)
ICCO daily price US$/tonne (2013/14 terms)
24 Nov 2000: min
US$1,000
Now about:
US$2,775
18 July 1977: max
US$18,000

5. International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | April 2015
4
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
1 500
1 750
2 000
2 250
2 500
2 750
3 000
3 250
3 500
3 750
4 000
4 250
4 500
4 750
5 000
thousandtonnes(Surplus/Deficit)
thousandtonnes(Production/Grindings)

6. International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | April 2015
Source: ICCO
5
ICCO Forecasts for cocoa supply and demand
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
thousandtonnes(Surplus/Deficit)
thousandtonnes(Production/Grindings)

7. International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | April 2015
Cocoa supply surplus/deficit & prices: the long-term trend
Analysis using the Hodrick–Prescott filter

8. International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | April 2015
Sources: Euromonitor, ICCO
Global Chocolate Confectionery Sales
versus
Global Farm-gate Value of Cocoa Production
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
$USMillion,2012/13constant
World Chocolate Confectionery Sales Farm-gate Value of Cocoa Production
$86.6
billion
$2.6
billion
$109.3
billion
$5.9
billion
7
US Chocolate Confectionery Retail Price vs Farmgate Cocoa Price
(Index: 100 in 1990/91)
0
50
100
150
200
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
PriceIndex(100in1990/91)
US CPIchocolate confectionery Average Cocoa Farmgate Price Index,real
International Cocoa Price
vs
Farm-Gate Price
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1973/741975/761977/781979/801981/821983/841985/861987/881989/901991/921993/941995/961997/981999/002001/022003/042005/062007/082009/102011/12
US$pertonne(2012/13constant)
Average farm-gate price (year average)
ICCO Indicator price (year average)
July 1977:
US$ 18,000
November 2000:
US$ 1,000
Value distribution: low share
for the raw beans
Prebisch–Singer thesis:
decline of the value of the
raw beans against cocoa
manufactured goods

9. International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | April 2015
Value chain distribution
Source: Cocoa Barometer, 2015

10. International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | April 2015
Main recommendations:
- Countries to develop and implement a
national Cocoa Development Plan derived from
a fully transparent and participatory process
with all key stakeholders involved in the cocoa
sector, through public-private partnerships
- Participants to increase transparency
and coordination of development activities
implemented and planned for the future in the
cocoa sector at national, regional and
international levels, thereby allowing for more
coherent and efficient actions to address the
challenges faced by the sector
What happened at the first World Cocoa Conference ?
19-23 November 2012, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire
Outputs:
- Adoption of the Global Cocoa
Agenda, outlining the key issues
facing the cocoa sector and the best
strategy and players to tackle them
- Abidjan Cocoa Declaration: signed
by 35 parties (countries, companies,
associations, NGOs)
9

11. International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | April 2015
What happened at the second World Cocoa Conference ?
9-13 June 2014, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
10

12. International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | April 2015
Alignment of strategy by the industry
National Cocoa Development Plan & Public-
Private-Partnership platform
Highlights of the Conference
Farmers’ income
Amsterdam Cocoa Declaration
11

13. International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | April 2015
World Cocoa Conference 2016
22 – 25 May 2016, Bávaro (Punta Cana), Dominican Republic
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Objectives:
- Take stock of the progress achieved by
stakeholders in the implementation of the Global
Cocoa Agenda adopted in Abidjan in 2012
- Review recent developments in the cocoa
sector.
Special emphasizes:
A special emphasis will be put on the theme of differentiation of various cocoas and cocoa
products as a method of branding and of market development, in order to increase profitability for
producers and added value for both origins and manufacturers.
The WCC3 is organized under the theme:
“Building bridges between producers and consumers”.
For more information: www.worldcocoaconference.org

14. International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | April 2015
Exhibition: an opportunity to promote brands and
showcase products and projects to the most influential
gathering of professionals from the cocoa and chocolate
industry
Networking: the event will attract industry leaders from
all geographical regions throughout the entire supply
chain. Many side events and parties to be organized
during the week.
Learning: an opportunity to learn about the most recent
actions taken to ensure the sustainability of the sector
and about the latest market developments
Sharing: an opportunity to share experiences during and
around the sessions.
13
World Cocoa Conference 2016
22 – 25 May 2016, Bávaro (Punta Cana), Dominican Republic

15. International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | April 2015
Structural deficit vs structural surplus:
Characteristics and consequences
“Structural” deficit:
1. Price of cocoa surges;
2. Growth of demand for cocoa and chocolate products is reduced, particularly from developing and emerging
economies;
3. The industry and consumers seeks cheaper alternatives to cocoa.
3. More investment is made in cocoa growing due to the increased attractiveness of cocoa growing - cocoa production
rises;
4. Price of cocoa starts to decline;
5. A period of supply surplus is emerging
……
“Structural” surplus:
1. Price of cocoa falls;
2. Growth of demand for cocoa and chocolate products increases, particularly from developing and emerging economies;
3. Cocoa growing is no longer an attractive business opportunity – cocoa farmers tend to invest in alternative crops (palm
oil, rubber, etc.). Younger generation dismiss cocoa growing as an unattractive business proposition; the
poorest smallholder farmers, with no alternative to cocoa growing, continues but poverty increases; - cocoa
production does not increase to meet potential demand
4. Price of cocoa starts to increase…
5. A period of supply deficit is emerging
……
Both scenario are plausible in the medium term… but oversupply would have a more
devastating effect on the sustainability of the cocoa sector. All efforts to improve
the sustainability of the cocoa sector would be partially lost.
“Remunerative” cocoa prices that compensate farmers sufficiently to ensure a “living”
income is a necessary condition to ensure the sustainability of the cocoa sector.

16. International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | April 2015
The “cocoa ship”: the need to take a long term view;
what are the tools to navigate?

17. International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | April 2015
Increasing productivity AND encouraging crop /
farm diversification…
Better coordination of initiatives and national
policies affecting supply, at national level
(PPPP) and international level…
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Conclusions
Interdependence of actors in the value chain
Better tools to evaluate market situation and
future prospects…
Don’t worry, enjoy your chocolate !!!!
Increasing quality, promoting diversity and branding
the cocoa origins (de-commoditization) for
better prices…

18. International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | April 2015
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Thank you
jeanmarc.anga@icco.org
17