Drought conditions are affecting parts of East Africa, while diseases are spreading among livestock. Frequent crises negatively impact people's ability to cope with shocks, and short-term aid fails to address the underlying issues. Over 26.8 million people in East and Southern Africa are affected by natural disasters each year, in addition to 10.8 million affected by conflict. Flagship Program 4 of the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics aims to understand the impacts of stress and aid on agricultural and social systems to improve interventions before, during, and after crises and promote increased resilience, and it needs research from Flagship Program 1 on long-term drivers of change to help achieve these goals.

1. Who Needs Research on Drivers of Change?A ‘crisis’ perspectivePresented by Kate Longley (ICRISAT / Overseas Development Institute) at the Workshop on Dealing with Drivers of Rapid Change in Africa: Integration of Lessons from Long-term Research on INRM, ILRI, Nairobi, June 12-13, 2008

2. Regional Humanitarian Update – May 2008Drought conditions in Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia

3. Collapse of pastoral coping mechanisms in Djibouti

4. Peste des Petit Ruminants (PPR) in Kenya, spreading to Uganda & Somalia

5. Cassava Mosaic Disease & Brown Streak Virus spreading in the highlands of ECAA vicious circleCrisis as the failure of development and INRM

6. Crisis negatively impacts on people’s coping capacity

7. Short-term emergency aid potentially undermines resilience and fails to address underlying causes of crises

8. People become more vulnerable to future shocksCrises in ESA26.8 million people in ESA are affected by natural disaster each year (1998-2007)

9. 10.8 million are directly affected by conflict and political instability at present

10. Overall: 1 in every 12 people are affected by crisis in ESA region

11. Figures likely to rise with increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events associated with climate variabilityFlagship Program 4 AimsTo understand the impacts of stress on agricultural, market and social systems

12. To understand the impacts of aid on these systems

13. To enhance food security in high stress / unstable situations through improving interventions before, during and after crisis

14. To work with implementing agencies to improve emergency preparedness, mitigation, relief, recovery and rehabilitation

15. To help agencies to address underlying causes of food insecurity and promote increased resilience to external shocks FP4’s need for FP1 researchTo understand how different drivers impact on resilience and vulnerability of farmers, agro-ecological and social systems

16. To identify the key drivers behind decreased resilience

17. To identify ways of enhancing coping strategies, resilience and mitigation to stresses

18. To ascertain the long-term implications of repeated short-term emergency interventions FP4’s need for FP1 research (…cont)To determine acceptable trade-offs between interventions that provide for short-term needs at the expense of long-term resilience

19. To identify adaptation measures that have helped communities to cope with extreme events and other change processes

20. To identify technologies, institutional and policy processes to be promoted as part of Disaster Risk Reduction measures

21. To help identify tools and approaches (from INRM) through which relief and developmental interventions can be better integrated