Carrying out scale-relevant collaborative research on drivers of changelessons and insight from SAfMA & other initiativesPresented by Bob Scholes (CSIR: bscholes@csir.co.za) at the Workshop on Dealing with Drivers of Rapid Change in Africa: Integration of Lessons from Long-term Research on INRM, ILRI, Nairobi, June 12-13, 2008
The importance of a having a conceptual modelThe MA conceptual model was simple, but sufficient for the purposeIn some respects, it was even arguably wrongBut it did provide a way of teasing out proximal drivers, ultimate drivers, feedback effects and interventions, and createda framework in which both human sciences andnatural sciences could locate themselvesSource: MEA (2003) Ecosystem services and human well-being. Island Press
Causality in systems with feedbackbaWhich is cause, and which effect?cTools you can useCause still precedes effect
Analysing the strength of the feedback can help
At what point was the external perturbation applied?Example of complex causalityIn Zimbabwe, Namibia and South Africa, large areas of land formerly managed for cattle and sheep switched to wildlife, 1975 onward
Many factors were involved, including
Declining profitability of cattle and sheep ranching
Rising demand for hunting and ecotourism
Deteriorating on-farm security
Intergenerational lifestyle changes
The changes in legislation relating to ownership of wildlife actually followed rather than preceded these factorsSource: Scholes et al (in prep)
Meta-analysisThe relative weights of the many causes of food insecurity
Causality: Nutrition insecurityarguments from a knowledge of underlying processesSource: Scholes RJ and R Biggs 2004 Ecosystem services in southern Africa: a Regional assessment. CSIR
Getting the relationships rightExample:How does biodiversity link to ecosystem services, and services to human wellbeing?SocietyutilitarianvaluesintrinsicvaluesBiodiversityThe naïve view
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2003) schemeHuman wellbeingMaterialneedsGood social relationsHealthSecurityFreedom & choiceIndirectdriversProvisioningFood, fibre, water, woodmedicinesSupportingNutrient Cycles, NPPRegulatingClimate, disease, floodsCulturalAestheticsTourismspiritualDirectDriversClimate changeBiodiversity
The MA followup schemeSource: Kinzig, Perrings and Scholes (submitted)Human wellbeingFreedom and choiceSecurity Material needs Health Social relationsinsurancevaluemarket &nonmarketvaluesProvisioningfood, fibre, wood water, air, genes,medicinesCulturalaesthetics, ethicstourism & recreationspiritual, sense of placeEcosystem servicesRegulatingclimate, floods, pests & diseaseSupportingEcosystem processes, Habitat provisionfunctionaltypeslandscapediversityspeciesdiversityresponsediversityBiodiversityinteractions

Does linking long term research sites to an ‘observatory of rural change’ make sense in the context of the research we are proposing?

  • 1.
    Carrying out scale-relevantcollaborative research on drivers of changelessons and insight from SAfMA & other initiativesPresented by Bob Scholes (CSIR: bscholes@csir.co.za) at the Workshop on Dealing with Drivers of Rapid Change in Africa: Integration of Lessons from Long-term Research on INRM, ILRI, Nairobi, June 12-13, 2008
  • 2.
    The importance ofa having a conceptual modelThe MA conceptual model was simple, but sufficient for the purposeIn some respects, it was even arguably wrongBut it did provide a way of teasing out proximal drivers, ultimate drivers, feedback effects and interventions, and createda framework in which both human sciences andnatural sciences could locate themselvesSource: MEA (2003) Ecosystem services and human well-being. Island Press
  • 3.
    Causality in systemswith feedbackbaWhich is cause, and which effect?cTools you can useCause still precedes effect
  • 4.
    Analysing the strengthof the feedback can help
  • 5.
    At what pointwas the external perturbation applied?Example of complex causalityIn Zimbabwe, Namibia and South Africa, large areas of land formerly managed for cattle and sheep switched to wildlife, 1975 onward
  • 6.
    Many factors wereinvolved, including
  • 7.
    Declining profitability ofcattle and sheep ranching
  • 8.
    Rising demand forhunting and ecotourism
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
    The changes inlegislation relating to ownership of wildlife actually followed rather than preceded these factorsSource: Scholes et al (in prep)
  • 12.
    Meta-analysisThe relative weightsof the many causes of food insecurity
  • 13.
    Causality: Nutrition insecurityargumentsfrom a knowledge of underlying processesSource: Scholes RJ and R Biggs 2004 Ecosystem services in southern Africa: a Regional assessment. CSIR
  • 14.
    Getting the relationshipsrightExample:How does biodiversity link to ecosystem services, and services to human wellbeing?SocietyutilitarianvaluesintrinsicvaluesBiodiversityThe naïve view
  • 15.
    The Millennium EcosystemAssessment (2003) schemeHuman wellbeingMaterialneedsGood social relationsHealthSecurityFreedom & choiceIndirectdriversProvisioningFood, fibre, water, woodmedicinesSupportingNutrient Cycles, NPPRegulatingClimate, disease, floodsCulturalAestheticsTourismspiritualDirectDriversClimate changeBiodiversity
  • 16.
    The MA followupschemeSource: Kinzig, Perrings and Scholes (submitted)Human wellbeingFreedom and choiceSecurity Material needs Health Social relationsinsurancevaluemarket &nonmarketvaluesProvisioningfood, fibre, wood water, air, genes,medicinesCulturalaesthetics, ethicstourism & recreationspiritual, sense of placeEcosystem servicesRegulatingclimate, floods, pests & diseaseSupportingEcosystem processes, Habitat provisionfunctionaltypeslandscapediversityspeciesdiversityresponsediversityBiodiversityinteractions
  • 17.
  • 18.
    Cross-scaleDirect driversIndirect driversEcosystemservicesHumanWellbeingSource: Carpenter et al 2006 Science 313 257-258
  • 19.
    ‘Right-scale’ or ‘multiscale’?Matchingscale of analysis to scale of process and scale of intervention is important
  • 20.
    But, because ofcross-scale interactions, there often is not a single ‘optimum’ scale
  • 21.
    Rather than gofor a ‘best compromise’, an integrated multiscale approach is recommended
  • 22.
    Seldom needs toinclude more than 3 scalesSparse nesting as an efficient approachGlobal Millennium Assessment~35 others
  • 23.
    Engaging other knowledgesystemsif they want to have an impact in the ‘evidence-based’ space they need to migrate to that quadrant, by being placed in the public domain, and subject to rules of evidence. This is their choice.Apply rules: ie, testdocumentChristo Fabricius, Bob Scholes and Georgina CundillMobilising knowledge for ecosystem assessmentsProceedings of the ‘Bridging Scales and Epistemologies’ Conference, Alexandria, Egypt, March 2004
  • 24.
    Some observations oncollaborative researchYou must have an agreed conceptual framework, even if it is imperfect
  • 25.
    The rules ofengagement are
  • 26.
  • 27.
    Agree to shareinformation ie explicit, formal quadrant
  • 28.
    Have an institutionalframework for resolving conflicts
  • 29.
    A ‘stakeholder board’and a ‘technical panel’
  • 30.
    Pay attention tothe ‘soft’ issues
  • 31.
  • 32.
    Get the balanceright between disciplines and personalities
  • 33.
    Partnerships need tobe quasi-equal if they are to workAll the simple problems are done