This document discusses a project that aims to help smallholder agricultural communities adapt to climate change through participatory supply chain management. The project seeks to (1) quantify crop exposure to climate change using prediction models, (2) develop indicators to describe climate change impacts, and (3) derive potential adaptation strategies for supply chain actors. Case studies include vegetable value chains in Guatemala and Jamaica and small-scale farmers in Bogota. A framework is presented for conducting vulnerability assessments and developing inclusive adaptation strategies along food supply chains.

1. smallholder agriculture and climate changeP Läderach, A Eitzinger, A BenedikterOxfam GB, London, January 2011

2. Objectives

3. Methodology

4. Preliminary resultsGuatemalaBogotáJamaicaCarbon Footprint online platform

5. A Framework to adapt

6. What’s next?

7. CCAFSOutline

8. ObjectivesPerceptions“Rain has become very irregularly, this year we suffered drought followed by heavy rains during Broccoli season”Two small-farmers & brothers, Guatemala, Patzún, October, 2010

9. ObjectivesAdaptation by agricultural communities to climate change through participatory & supply chain inclusive managementObjectivesQuantify the exposure of crops (using crop prediction models)

10. Derive indicators to describe climate change impacts on livelihood(participatory & gender sensitive diagnostic)

11. Develop potential response pathways for supply chain actors (using interviews with industry partners) & estimate the carbon food print for identifying response pathways (develop a online carbon footprint platform)

12. Road map how adaptationstrategiescan be used(deriving a framework)Beneficiaries (case studies)Guatemala frozen vegetable value chain

13. Bogotá metropolitan area small-scale farmers related food security

14. Jamaica fresh vegetable market for the hotel industryObjectivesVulnerability to climate change (IPCC 2001)VulnerabilityDegree ofsusceptibility andincapability ofa system to confrontadverse effectsof climateChange(IPCC 2001)ExposureDegree to which a system isexposed to significant variationin climateSensitivityDegree to which a system ispositively or negatively affectedby climate related stimulusAdaptive capacityThe ability of a system to adaptto climate change

15. MethodologyOverall ApproachOutputProcessInputsStatistical Downscaling of Climate InformationFuture Climatesat Local scaleGlobal Climate Model (GCM) OutputsCrop Suitability and Niche ModelingYield and Quality ImpactsProduction and Quality DataEXPOSUREVulnerability AnalysesSocio Economic InformationADAPTIVE CAPACITYAlternative Livelihood StrategiesSENSITIVITY

16. MethodologyCrop prediction modelsWhat is the suitability of a crop to the climate?Suitability to future climate(2050) – Current suitability = Change in suitability Current SuitabilityFuture Suitability 2050Change in Suitability to Future Climate (2050)Ecocrop Database (FAO)(Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN)Ranges: Temperature and precipitationPrecipitation Calibration with optimal points Samples (GPS points)

17. Altitude range

18. Current Production Areas

19. Soil typesCalibratedTemperature andPrecipitaciónRanges!WorldClim Climate Data http://worldclim.orgMore than 47,000 stations worldwideTemperature

20. MethodologyDFID Livelihood Framework, Indicators on 5 AssetsHumanSocialPhysicalAccess routes

21. Transport of products

22. Quality of accommodation

23. Access to formal and informal education

24. Level of knowledge of farming system management.

25. Health and feeding

26. Organization

27. Take decisions / Work distributionNaturalFinancialCredit access

28. Variability of production

29. Price variability

30. Variability in annual revenue and income diversification

31. Access to markets

32. Access to alternative technology

33. Access and availability of water

34. Contamination

35. Conservation

36. Soil conditions and fertilitySee presentation A130 by Celi et al.

37. Preliminary resultsGuatemala’s Frozen Vegetable Value-chainActually cultivated vegetables areas

38. Climate changepredictions for 2050Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) ExtractedClimateData for Vegetables in Chimaltenango, SololáBy 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 2.2 °CThe maximum annual temperature will rise 2.8°C The minimum annual temperature will increase 1.8°C By 2050 annual precipitation will decrease by 25 millimeters. “It will be hotter year-round and the rains will start later and be heavier in late winter.”

39. Exposureby changing crop suitability

40. Exposure… and limited land alternatives

41. Exposureby changing crop suitability

42. Exposure… and limited land alternatives