Jordan Rohan
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The document summarizes Jordan Rohan's thoughts on recent macroeconomic trends and the digital media industry: 1) The global economic recession is having widespread negative impacts, including falling public market valuations, tight credit, real estate price declines, and rising unemployment. 2) Within digital media, portals are declining while social media grows, but monetization remains a challenge. Ad networks have proliferated but face issues around oversupply and consolidation may be needed. 3) Predictions for 2009 include Google continuing to gain share, potential acquisition targets, and an upturn in stock prices after the first quarter.
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Ppa Advertisingin Recession 27.05.09 Jgv3
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October 2019The last pit stop Time for bold late-cyc.docx
October 2019
The last pit stop?
Time for bold
late-cycle moves
McKinsey Global Banking Annual Review 2019
Literature title
2
Content
04
Executive summary
07
The late cycle:
Welcome to uncertainty
23
Time for bold moves:
Levers to improve performance in the late cycle
41
The right moves for the right bank
55
Conclusion
3 The last pit stop? Time for bold late-cycle moves
A decade on from the global financial
crisis, signs that the banking industry has
entered the late phase of the economic
cycle are clear: growth in volumes and
top-line revenues is slowing with loan
growth of just four percent in 2018—the
lowest in the past five years and a good
150 basis points below nominal GDP
growth. Yield curves are also flattening.
And, though valuations fluctuate, investor
confidence in banks is weakening
once again.
Industry veterans have been through
a few of these cycles before. But,
notwithstanding the academic literature,1
this one seems different. Global return
on tangible equity (ROTE) has flatlined
at 10.5 percent, despite a small rise in
rates in 2018. Emerging market banks
have seen ROTEs decline steeply, from
20 percent in 2013 to 14.1 percent in
2018, due largely to digital disruption that
continues unabated. Banks in developed
markets have strengthened productivity
and managed risk costs, lifting ROTE
from 6.8 percent to 8.9 percent. But on
balance, the global industry approaches
the end of the cycle in less than ideal
health with nearly 60 percent of banks
printing returns below the cost of equity. A
prolonged economic slowdown with low or
even negative interest rates could wreak
further havoc.
What explains the difference between
the 40 percent of banks that create
value and the 60 percent that
destroy it? In short, geography, scale,
differentiation, and business model.
1 Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,
Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009.
On the first, we find that the domicile
of a bank explains nearly 70 percent
of underlying valuations. Consider the
United States, where banks earn nearly
ten percentage points more in returns
than European banks do, implying
starkly different environments. Then
comes scale. Our research confirms that
scale in banking, as in most industries,
is generally correlated with stronger
returns. Be it scale across a country, a
region, or a client segment. Having said
that, there are still small banks with niche
propositions out there generating strong
returns, but these are more the exception
than the rule. Underlying constraints of
a business model also have a significant
role to play. Take the case of broker
dealers in the securities industry, where
margins and volumes have been down
sharply in this cycle. A scale leader in the
right geography as a broker dealer still
doesn’t earn cost of capital.
Domicile is mostly out of a bank’s control.
...
Recession is Coming. Is Your Channel Management Team Ready?
Over the last year or so, there has been much talk about another impending recession and how it could impact channel management. The recession theory is based upon historical trends, which suggest business cycles tend to last around five to seven years each. That means every five to seven years we experience some sort of a recession.
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