1) The document discusses various methods for technology monitoring and forecasting, including environmental scanning, trend analysis, impact assessment, and patent analysis. 2) It emphasizes the importance of using multiple information sources and tools to conduct effective technology intelligence, such as analyzing patents, publications, reports and expert opinions. 3) The key goal of technology monitoring is to provide reliable information to support technological development and strategic decision making around investments, acquisitions, and research priorities.

1. Technology Observatory
March 2016
Vahid Shamekhi

2. 2014 Wildlife Photographer Competition

26. Science and Technology Observatory
Technology Intelligence
Technology Monitoring Technology Radar
Technology or Tech. Mining
Environmental Scanning
Trend Analysis
Technology Forecasting
Technology Foresighting

27. Alan L. Porter, Futures Research Methods, 2009.
Six Information Types

28. Kerr, C. I. V., L. Mortara, et al. (2006). "A conceptual model for technology intelligence." International Journal of Technology Intelligence and
Planning 1(2): 73‐93
Search Modes

29. Mortara, L., R. Thomson , et al. (2010). "Implementing a Global Technology Sourcing Strategy –scan and target at Kodak European Research."
Research ‐ Technology Management (July‐August).
Technology Intelligence at Kodak European Research (KER)

30. Categories of Forecasting Methods

31. Environmental Scanning
major trends,
issues,
advancements,
events and ideasnewspapers,
magazines, Internet,
television,
conferences, reports,
including science-
fiction books
to analyze various
aspects of the project
and to decide on the key
issues to be examined
lone signals (individual factors that
might indicate change); landmark
events (in various areas of life);
forecasts of experts; and statistical
descriptions

32. Thinking Futures (2009)

33. Impact Assessment
Provide a reliable base of information
for use by any parties concerned with
the development of the technology
Provide support for a
technological development
Defer or stop the
implementation of a technology
Stimulate research or
development to remedy the
adverse effects of a technology
Khalil, 2000.

35. Trend Analysis
observe and register
the past performance
of a certain factor and
project it into the future
quantitative, mainly based
on statistical data; and
qualitative
Reveal surprising
historical and current
data patterns

36. IFTF (2011)

37. IFTF (2011)

38. PATENTS
Patent Analysis is often used by product managers, business
managers and IP strategists in order to synthesize useful
information about companies and/or sectors in terms of
technological competitiveness and the particular trajectory of
technology development (Breitzman and Mogee, 2002).
D. Cetindamar, R. Phaal and D. Probert, TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT, 2010.
Patent Search is used to assess the
patentability, novelty, clearance, infringement,
validity and prior art of a technology.

39. Patent analysis is widely used by technology companies engaging
in M&A activities in order to discover the company with the best
price to target from a technology perspective.
Significance of an innovation, that is, the number of
times the patent is cited in R&D planning in
comparison to competitors (Liu and Shyu, 1997).
Number of patents owned
Growth pattern of the technology

40. The patent analysis results are critical inputs for
decision making related to
The type of protection
Number of strategic issues
such as technology
investments and acquisitions

41. Leydesdorff, and I. Rafols, A Global Map of Science Based on the ISI Subject Categories. Journal of the American Society for Information
Science and Technology, 60(2), 348-362, 2009.

42. Leydesdorff, and I. Rafols, A Global Map of Science Based on the ISI Subject Categories. Journal of the American Society for Information
Science and Technology, 60(2), 348-362, 2009.
Vahid Shamekhi, 2010.

46. Alan L. Porter, Tech Mining (2005)

47. On average, an industrial scientist innovator
patents once every six years. As we shall see,
however, averages can be misleading—the
majority don’t patent at all…

48. An academic scientist or engineer is
45 times more likely to publish his/her research
than an industrial counterpart. Not surprisingly,
academic researchers contribute about three-
quarters of all publicly available R&D…

49. Too often, innovators
reproduce solutions that are
known elsewhere. One Russian
researcher, Genrich Altshuller,
established that roughly 25% of
all patents solved problems
well known in other disciplines
or industries. Another 35% are
merely minor extensions to
established technologies. Less
than 1% of all patents involve
creation of foundational
knowledge. Altshuller
developed tools to stimulate
invention (TRIZ)…

50. Cross-disciplinary and
cross-sector knowledge
awareness and integration is
mandatory (Rasmussen,1997).
Tech mining can play a major role
in forming these integrative links.

51. Knowing about others research (and
development) is critical—few companies can do
technology development all by themselves today…

52. A key principle:
Good tech mining exploits multiple information
sources with multiple tools.
In particular, empirical sources (database
mining) need to be complemented by expert
opinion.

53. Technological innovation can
be measured and understood.
Innovation can be tracked—we
have the tools to monitor new
developments in science and
technology.
Innovation involves ideas,
generated by innovators, and
institutions that initiate,
perform, and apply R&D.
Organizations that track
science and technology gain
significant market advantages
over those who do not.
There are advantages in
tracking innovation for all
participants in the innovation
cycle.
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