This document provides an introduction to the field of futures studies. It discusses how futures studies aims to systematically explore possible and desirable futures in order to improve decision making. Key methods discussed include scenario planning, roadmapping, and trend analysis. The document outlines various time horizons and subject areas studied by futurists, such as technology, environment, economy and society. It also discusses differences between prediction and forecasting, and compares various qualitative and quantitative futures studies methods. The overall purpose of futures studies is to help organizations and societies envision and plan for potential alternative futures.

1. Introduction to Futures Studies
By:
Vahid Shamekhi
Aug 2014

2. 9 Billion
happy people on this planet?

3. Why Future Studies?
systematically explore, create, and test both possible and desirable
futures to improve decisions
The purpose of
futures methodology

4. strategically it is better
better tomorrow without

5. Positive visions, untested by futures analysis

6. • If no general agreement exists about an
organization's or nation's future direction, then
how can one know what is useful or useless?
• The lack of vision promotes aimlessness and
apathy

7. The understanding of time is changing
the perception of time is more open,
what is possible and desirable?
cyclical, rainy season
more progressive and linear,
more efficiency

8. identify what you don't know,
but need to know, to make more intelligent
decisions.

9. Why?
To Succeed
in Your
Career
To Prepare
for Change
To Choose
Your Future
To Make
Better
Decisions
To Prevent
Disasters
To Seize
Opportunitie
s
To
Understand
Today's
World
To Develop
Self-
Confidence
To Expand
Your
Horizons

10. the only place from which to change the future is
while past, present & future are all somehow interconnected

11. 9 Billion happy people on this planet?

12. Double Challenge
Demands Resources

13. Demands
Population
Resources

15. Demands
Population
Economy
Resources

17. Demands
Population
Economy
Material and
Energy
Intensity
Resources
Resource
Restrictions

20. Demands
Population
Economy
Material
and Energy
Intensity
Resources
Resource
Restrictions
Assimilation
Restrictions

22. Demands
Population
Economy
Material
and Energy
Intensity
Resources
Resource
Restrictions
Assimilation
Restrictions
Land Area
Restrictions

23. Future???

24. Philosophical Assumptions
Humans will have more influence on the
future than they did in the past
You cannot know the future, but a
range of possible futures
The likelihood of a future event or
condition can be changed by policy,
and policy consequences can be
forecasted
Gradations of foreknowledge and
probabilities can be made; we can be
more certain about the sunrise than
about the rise of the stock market
No single method should be trusted

25. What is Future Studies?
To study potential change, not simply fads, but what is likely
to make a systemic or fundamental difference over the next
10 to 25 years or more.
As historians are supposed to tell us
what happened and journalists tell us
what is happening, futurists tell us
what could happen and help us to
think about what we might want to
become.
Multi-disciplinary examination of change in all major areas of life…

26. Not Prophecy
Do not produce completely
accurate or complete
descriptions of the future,

28. Goal 1: Preferable to Probable
Goal 2: Avoid Danger of Probable
BP Disaster

30. Time Periods for Studying the Future
Near
Term: t<1
Short Range:
1<t<5
Middle Range:
5<t<20
Long Range:
20<t<50
Far: 50<t

32. Subjects Studied by Futurists
The Global Mega crisis Issue
•Global Population Growth;
•Food and World Hunger;
•Energy Sources (Traditional, Nonrenewable Fossil
Fuels & Alternative, Renewable Energy Sources);
•Environmental Pollution;
•Sustainable Development;
•Global Climate Change
Global Peace, Conflict, and War
Global Economic Trends
Global Political Trends
The End of the East-West Conflict and the Cold War
The United Nations System and Global Governance
North-South Relations and the Increasing Gap
The Emergence of Larger Regional Economic Blocs

33. (A) High Technologies, such as:
•Computers, Telecommunications,
•Multimedia, Internet, Virtual Reality Technology
•Genetic Engineering,
•Space Exploration,
•Nanotechnology
(B) Appropriate or Intermediate Technologies, tied
to Sustainable Development
Societal Fragmentation
Educational/Learning Trends;
New Scientific Paradigms;
Changing Cultural Paradigms;
Global Spiritual/Religious/Consciousness
Traditions and Trends
Workplace Trends, including:
New Management Styles;
Employment/Job Trends;
Technology & Jobs;
Diversity and Women Working.

34. Prediction Vs Forecast

35. Planners Vs Futurists
Multi-Disciplinary
Time Horizon
Output/ Input

36. Reliability of Data

37. Futures Studies and Culture
Some believe
the future is pre-
determined by
God
Some believe the universe to be a
dynamic self-creating God with
humans as part of the process
Some believe the
future depend on
chance, chaos
theory,…

38. Plan for the Future Vs Plan or
Invent the Future

39. Utility and Pitfalls of Analogy as a
Short Cut

40. Accuracy Vs Precision

41. Correlations and Lead
Indicators
Four years before the fall of the Shah, Iran's ratio was 38 to 1.

42. Classification of Methods
Exploratory
Normative
Quantitative
Qualitative

43. Macro
Micro

44. Quantitative Qualitative Normative Exploratory
Agent Modeling * *
Casual Layered Analysis * *
Chaos and Non-Linear Dynamics
Cross- Impact Analysis * *
Decision Modeling * *
Delphi Techniques * *
Econometrics and Statistical Modeling * *
Environmental Scanning * *
Heuristic Modeling * *
Field Anomaly Relavation * *
Futures Wheel * * *
Genius Forecasting, Vision and Intuition * * *
Multiple Perspective * * *
Participatory Methods * *
Relavance Trees and Morphological Analysis * *
Roadmapping * * *
Robust Planning * * *
Scenario Planning * * * *
Simulation- Gaming * *
Structured Analysis * * *
System Modeling * *
Technological Sequence Analysis * *
Text mining * * *
Trend Impact Analysis * *

45. Scenario Planning

47. Roadmapping

48. Kazakhstan Upstream Oil and Gas
Technology and R&D Roadmap
More than 300 industry representative…
*10
Billions $
230
possible
technology
1. R&D Focus
2. Industry
Opportunities
3. Learning & Skills
Development
The main benefit of
technology roadmapping is
that it supplies information
to help make better
technology investment
decisions.

49. The client’s Board had set aggressive
production targets for the new gas
resources.
development, acquisition and application
of a number of technologies new to the
company

50. For each technology, a detailed
roadmap, including technology
descriptions, business challenges,
anticipated business impact, resource
requirements, inter-dependencies
with other technologies, expected
deliverables, timings…
Quick wins – relatively easy to
implement and with the potential to
recognize strong short-term impact
25 technologies new to the company
Big wins – critical to reach
production targets and/or
increase ultimate recovery

51. What about MAPNA Group?

52. CSP
Aircraft
Engine
Healthcare

53. Next Step…
Description of Methods/
Techniques
Case Studies

55. References
• Jerome C. Glenn, Futures Research Methodologies, 2009.
• Curtis W. Roney, Intersections of Strategic Planning and Futures Studies,
Journal of Future Studies, Nov 2010.
• Ulf Pillkahn, Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy
Development, 2008.
• John Holmberg, Introduction to Future Studies, Barcelona, June 2011.
• Linda Groff and Paul Smoker, Introduction to Future Studies, State
University of California, 1999.
• Stephen M. Millett, Should probabilities be used with scenarios?, 2008.