The document discusses the risks of military confrontation between the U.S. and China, emphasizing the need for U.S. military readiness in response to potential threats, such as China's seizure of Taiwan. It highlights the importance of maintaining a global balance of power and the implications of a weakened U.S. alliance system, while warning against a complacent approach to rising Chinese influence. The author, Dr. Sarmavangala, suggests that a lack of proactive diplomacy could lead to a dangerous escalation in U.S.-China relations.

1. How to avoid a dangerous
US-China confrontation
Or,
Why America could lose a war with China
Dr SarmaVANGALA
Metastrategy, Inc.
Toronto, CANADA

2. How to avoid a dangerous US-China
confrontation
Or,
Why America could lose a war with China
Dr SarmaVANGALA
Metastrategy, Inc.
Toronto, CANADA
Part I

3. Great is the guilt of an unnecessary war.
John Adams
Political philosopher
2nd
US President

5. 2018 National Defence Strategy
Invasion of a US ally is THE most pressing
requirement for sizing US’ military.
– Responding to China seizingTaiwan or Russia
invading Baltic nations requires formidable US
airpower.
– Immediate response over long distances is an
imperative

6. Quick vs Prolonged War
US lacks sustainability, i.e., to fight for long
periods
Budgets have been drawn for ‘single theatre,
single threat’
‘Flat budget is enough’.
Chm.Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Milley {Testimony to Congress 2021.06.23}

7. Quick vs Prolonged War
US lacks sustainability, i.e., to fight for long
periods. Adversaries know this
Budgets have been drawn for ‘single theatre, single
threat’ Adversaries know this
‘Flat budget is enough’. Is it?
Chm.Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Milley {Testimony to Congress 2021.06.23}

8. What if ?
China seizesTaiwan and Russia invades Baltic
in quick succession?
Game over

10. US National Interests
• Prevent use and reduce threat of nuclear, biological and
chemical weapons and terrorist attacks;
• Stop spread of nuclear weapons and delivery systems
* Maintain global and regional balance of power
• Prevent emergence of failed states on US’ borders
• Ensure viability of global trade, finance, public health,
freedom of seas, cyberspace and environment
Taiwan does not qualify under any of these except *

11. Taiwan Relations Act
US is not obligated by treaty to defendTaiwan.
Taiwan Relations Act requires US to help
Taiwan defend itself

12. A person who uses force is afraid of reasoning.
Kenyan proverb

14. Domino Effect
• China’s rises economically and militarily
• Taiwan becomes a champion of democracy and hence an irritant {similar to
West Berlin to East Germany and the Soviet Bloc}
• China rubs outTaiwan by military force while US stands aside
• Japan and S Korea, seeing an impotent ally, pursue nuclear weapons
{which they can develop in 1 yr.}
• Balkan states conclude that help will be not coming from US when Russia
attacks
Strength of US Alliance System thrown into doubt

15. It is senseless to fight when you cannot hope to win.
Apache {a Native Indian tribe} proverb

16. Xi’s Proposed Legacy
Numerous reports have suggested
President Xi would like his ‘prime legacy’ to be
the reunification of HK andTaiwan with the
Mainland by 2035.

17. US’ Strategic Objective
PreserveTaiwan’s political and economic
autonomy as a free society and US-allied
deterrence ->
without triggering a Chinese attack.

18. WillTaiwan become US’ Suez
Crisis ?
• Nasser’s power was increasing in the Middle East
• Seen as a threat to UK’s dominance in region
• Nasser nationalises Suez
• UK, France and US unable/unwilling to retaliate
• Nasser emerges victorious owing to international
recognition of sovereignty rights over the Suez

19. Get Over It
• China seeks to replace US as the most
important/influential nation in Indo-Pacific region AND to
dominate it;
• China’s tactics will change but goal will not;
• US’ domestic, economic, military and diplomatic
strengths will determine if China is successful;

20. Get Over It
• US and allies can compete with China and there’s no
need for pessimism;
• US and China are well on their way for confrontation;
• Beijing andWashington have made little efforts since
2016 to arrest the catastrophic decline in relations;
• No Grand Bargain will be struck between US and China.

21. History theTeacher
The period beforeWW I reminds me of the
current US-China relationship. Europe’s leaders
would not have made the decisions they did had
they known the horrible consequences.
Henry Kissinger
Council on Foreign Relations report no. 90, February 2021

22. It is senseless to fight when you cannot hope to win.
Apache {a Native Indian tribe} proverb

23. A Possible Strategy
To be continued in a second lecture

24. SarmaVANGALA, Ph D
Chief Executive Officer
Metastrategy, Inc.
• SarmaVangala is a corporate consultant
specialising in Strategy, M&A and Business
Transformation
• Based inToronto, CANADA
• BTech (IIT(M)); PhD (Exon.); Professional Engineer
• sarma.vangala@metastrategyinc.com

25. Dynamics