climate-change-and-food-production-pakistan-m-arif-goheer-global-change-impact

1. Climate change and food production:
Pakistan
M. Arif Goheer
Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC)
Islamabad – Pakistan
GECAFS IGP CPW&F and APN Launch Workshops
Kathmandu-Nepal, June 27-30, 2006

2. Climate Change
“the greatest challenge facing the world
at the beginning of the century”
World Economic Forum
Davos, Switzerland 2000

3. Changing Climatic Trends
• Increasing concentration of CO2 in the
atmosphere
• Pre-industrial revolution (1789)280 ppm
• Present (2004) 380 ppm
• Expected level (2050) 550 ppm
• Rising surface temperatures
• Global Av. Temp. rise (20th century) 0.6 °C
• Projections for 2100 1.4 to 5.8 °C
• Changing rainfall patterns
Source: IPCC, 2001

4. Depending on the level of GHG emissions and concentration in the atmosphere, the
average global temperature would rise between 1.4 oC – 5.8 oC over the 21st Century

5. Climate and Food Production
• Weather and Climate are the key
factors in food productivity
• Being open to vagaries of nature,
food production are highly vulnerable
to climate change phenomena

6. Climate Related Parameters of Agricultural Productivity
• CO2
• Temperature
• Solar Radiation
• Precipitation
• Others (Wind speed and direction, Soil Moisture,
Water vapour, etc.)
Basic understanding of these factors helps
manipulate plants to meet human needs of food,
fiber and shelter
The parameters also help understand impacts of
climate change and devise adaptation/mitigation
strategies

7. GDD
and Corresponding GSL
Climate-Water-Food Linkages
Crop Water Demand
Water Availability
Evapo-transpiration (ET)
Agriculture (Crop Yield)
Photosynthetic
Activity
Climate
Temperature Rainfall
Wind,
Sunshine,
Solar Radiation
CO2 level
Canal/ground
water

8. Projections of IPCC for South Asia
• Increase in surface temperature will
contribute to snowmelt resulting in risk of
floods
• Indus river inflows will decrease by 27% by
the year 2050
• Land degradation will cause land to shrink
from present 0.8 ha per capita to 0.3 by 2010
• Areas in mid and high latitudes will
experience increase in crop yield whereas in
lower latitudes will experience a general
decrease, under elevated CO2 conditions
IPCC, 2001

9. • Crop models showed that increase in
temperature of 0.9 and 1.8°C resulted in
reduction in length of wheat growing season by
4 and 8 days respectively
• At 0.9°C increase in temperature, wheat grain
yield increased by 2.5% whereas at 1.8°C
increase, the grain yield decreased by 4%
• The increase in temp. would reduce the
productivity of rice crop due to heat stress and
reduction in growing season length
Semi-arid areas

10. • Crop modeling studies showed a non significant
trend in wheat yields under increased
temperature scenarios (0.9°C and 1.8°C)
• Wheat straw yields were reduced by 7% and
12% with temperature increases of 0.9°C by
2020 and 1.8°C by 2050
Arid areas

11. Impacts on Food Production
Due to Increasing Temperatures
• Shift in spatial crop boundaries will have enormous economic
and social impact.
e.g. Rice transplantation, Cotton picking etc.
• Increase/decrease in crop yields
• Rise in evapotranspiration rates, calling for greater efficiency
of water use
• Shift in timing of developmental stages of pests in Crop-
weed-pest relationships

12. • More dependency on ground water in the face of low
precipitation
• danger of depletion of aquifer due to
injudicious pumping
• increased cost of cultivation
• soil salinization due to poor quality ground
water
Due to Change in Precipitation Pattern

13. Effect of water supplies
a) Decreased Surface Water Supplies
• Reduction in yield and quality of crops due to
water stress during critical growth stages
• Shift in cropping patterns
• Nitrogen volatilization losses from ammonical
fertilizers

14. b) Increased Water Supplies
• Potential development of Water logging and
Salinity/Sodicity
• Denitrification losses from ammonical and
nitrate based fertilizers
• Shift in cropping patterns
• Increased incidence of plant diseases

15. Extreme Weather Events
• In addition to changing climate, increased
variability in weather may occur with consequent
frequent extreme events such as heat waves,
droughts, wind storms and floods having
negative impacts on agriculture

16. Pakistan’s Resource Base
LAND (in million hectare)
• Geographical area = 79.6
• Area under cultivation = 27.6% (21.87)
• Crop area irrigated = 22.6% (17.99)
• Rainfed Agriculture area = 4.97% (21.87)
• Forest = 4.5% (3.61)
• Culturable waste = 11.7% (9.31)
• Range Lands = 59% (46.96)

17. Cropping Seasons
• Rabi
• November-April
• Wheat, Lentil, Chickpea
• Kharif
• May-October
• Rice, Maize, Mungbean, Cotton

18. Agricultural productivity
Crop Yield
Wheat 2262 kg/ha
Rice 1836 kg/ha
Maize 1768 kg/ha
Sugarcane 48.1 t/ha
Cotton 579 kg/ha
Fodder 22.3 t/ha
Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan 2001-02

19. Demand and Production projections with respect to
climate change in Pakistan
Commodities Baseline
Requirement
Demands
(000 tonnes)
Production
(000 tonnes)
1995 2020 2050 2020 2050
Wheat 17.9 32.4 43.0 27.46 35.70
Rice 5.1 9.2 12.2 6.21 7.89
S.Cane 41.6 75.3 100.0 50.0 60.0
Cotton 1.8* 3.3* 4.4* 18.00* 25.0*
Fruits 5.1 13.8 18.3 50.0 60.0
Vegetable 4.5 12.2 16.2 20.0 50.0
Meat 2.1 5.7 7.6 5.0 14.0
Milk 15.3 41.5 55.0 50.0 125
* Million Bales Source: CICERO 2000:2

20. Work Done at GCISC

21. Wheat & Rice Simulation Results
using DSSAT based CERES-Wheat &
CERES-Rice models
Semi-arid areas
Arid areas
Humid area
Sub-humid areas

22. Effect of Increase in Temperature and CO2levelson Wheat yields
Subhumid Areas
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1˚C 2˚C 3˚C 4˚C 5˚C
Change in temperature (°C)
Yield
(Kg/ha)
Humid Areas
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1˚C 2˚C 3˚C 4˚C 5˚C
Change in temperature (°C)
Yield
(Kg/ha)
Arid Areas
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1 2 3 4 5
Change in Temperature (°C)
Yield
(kg/ha)
360 550
Semi-arid Areas
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1 2 3 4 5
Change in Temperature (°C)
Yield
(kg/ha)
360 550

23. Effect of Increase in Temperature CO2levelsand Water Scenarios
on Wheat yields
Semi Arid Areas
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1 2 3 4 5
Temperature Increase (°C)
Yield
(kg/ha)
4irri_360ppm 2 irri_360ppm
4irri_550ppm 2 irri_550ppm

24. Effect of Increase in Temperature CO2levelsand Water Scenarios
on Wheat yields
Arid Areas
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
1 2 3 4 5
Temperature Increase (°C)
Yield
(kg/ha)
4irri_360ppm 2 irri_360ppm
4irri_550ppm 2 irri_550ppm

25. Effect of Increase in Temperature on Wheat GSL
(DSSAT based results 1994-95 to 2003-04 for Cv. Inqalab sown on Nov. 20th)
Temperature
(°C)
Growing Season Length (Days)
Humid
(Shangla)
Sub Humid
(Islamabad)
Semi Arid
(Faisalabad)
Arid
(Multan)
Baseline 246 161 146 137
1 °C
(increase over baseline)
232 155 140 132
2 °C 221 149 135 127
3 °C 211 144 130 123
4 °C 202 138 125 118
5 °C 194 133 121 113

26. Effect of Increase in Temperature and CO2levelson Rice yields
in Semi-arid areas of Punjab
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C
Temperature
Yield
(kg/ha)
375ppm 550 ppm
Baseline Yield

27. Effect of increase in Temperature on GSL of Rice
in Semi arid areas of Punjab (Faisalabad)
(Cv. Basmati Super transplanted in 1st Week of July)
Temperature Growing Season Length (Days)
Baseline 108
(increase over baseline)
1 °C
102
2 °C 100
3 °C 98
4 °C 92
5 °C 89

28. Conclusions
• Rise in CO2 level only has positive impact on wheat yield
• Rise in Temperature shows negative impact on wheat yield
• But it could be mitigated if CO2 level = 550 ppm
• Negative impact of Rise in Temperature on yield could also be
mitigated by increasing number of Irrigations (but…)
• Reduction in water resources shows a negative impact on
wheat yield
• Even 550 ppm CO2 level would not result in sustaining current
yield level if water resources reduce
• Rise in CO2 levels could sustain the baseline Rice yields up to
1C