This document summarizes a study that evaluated terrorism risk perception through surveys of food industry managers in Romania and Turkey. The study aimed to test hypotheses based on a social cognitive model of risk perception. It found that greater perceived threat was associated with increased worry, but perceived ability to cope was not. Perceptions of institutional preparedness were also found to increase worry levels. The study results will inform crisis communication plans in Romania and Turkey.

1. Terrorism risk perception and crisis
communication planning on the
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
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food chain
Romania & Turkey case study
Irina Stănciugelu, Associate Professor
Dan Stănescu, Associate Professor
Valeriu Frunzaru, Associate Profesor
National University of Political Studies and Public
Administration ROMANIA
Hami Alpas, Professor
Faruk Bozoglu, Professor
Middle East Technical University, TURKEY

2. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Aims of the study
• to evaluate terrorism risk perception through a series of
hypothesis drown from a social cognitive model of individual
response to terrorism
– Tool : survey on terrorism risk perception addressing companies’
managers or directors of regulatory agencies on the food chain from
Romania and Turkey
• Practical result: risk/crisis communication draft plans to be
used by Ministry of Agriculture, Forests and Rural
Development (Romania) and Ministry of Agricultural and Rural
Affairs (Turkey)

3. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Research Institutional Context
• The survey was made during the bilateral research project
Risk/Crisis Communication during Bioterrorism Threat. The
Management of Messages and Social Behavior (NUPSPA Romania
and METU Turkey) http://parcc-bioterrorism.comunicare.ro/
• A new research project Security Risk on Food Supply Chain – Risk
Perception & Communication is implementing right now a
qualitative research based on in-depth interviews
• Both projects are supported by the Company TOTEM
COMMUNICATION
http://www.totemresearch.ro/main.html
• The research projects are financed by Romania National Authority
of Scientific Research (ANCS) and The Scientific and Technological
Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK)

4. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Methodology of survey
• Target group: company managers and decision makers from
organizations operating in the food industry in Romania
• Sample: 319 cases (217 Romania, 102 Turkey)
• Instruments: individual questionnaire (55 questions)
• Method: self completed questionnaire, distributed online
through e-mail
• Sampling: simple random sampling

5. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Theoretical Context
• Paton et al.(2005) social-cognitive model of disaster
preparedness
• Slovic & Weber (2002) individual response to an extreme
event – related with analytic system & experiential system of
risk perception
• Lee and Lemyre (2009) social-cognitive model of individual
response to terrorism

6. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Variables of social cognitive model
• Cognitive factors
– Perceived probability
– Perceived seriousness
– Perceived personal impact (perceived organizational impact)
– Perceived coping efficacy
• Social contextual factors
– Perceived governmental preparedness
– Perceived front-line preparedness
• Affective response
– Worry
• Behavioral responses
– Individual preparedness (organization preparedness)
– Information seeking

7. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Hypothesis & results
1. Perceptions of terrorism as more threatening (cognitive
factors) would be associated with greater worry about
terrorism (affective response);
First hypothesis is confirmed (r=.279, p<.01): the cognitive factors trigger
significant affective response
2. The perception of oneself as better able to control or cope
with terrorism (cognitive factor) would be associated with
lesser worry about terrorism (affective response);
Second hypothesis is infirmed (r=.128, p>.05): the perception of better
copping do not trigger significant affective response

8. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Hypothesis & results
3. More favorable perceptions of institutional preparedness for
terrorism (social contextual factors) would be associated with
lesser worry about terrorism (affective response).
As more as level of preparedness of public authorities (r=.167, p<0.5)
regional (r=.342, p<.01), local (r=.355, p<.01) or hospitals (r=.247, p<.01),
first responders (emergency services) (r=.321, p<.01), NGOs (r=.194,
p<.01) or other organizations at local level (r=.186, p<.01) is perceived as
arised, as more the worry is bigger. The hypothesis is infirmed.
4. Greater worry about terrorism (affective response) would be
associated with increased engagement in behavioral responses
to terrorism.
No significant corelations; the hypothesis is infirmed.

9. Risk Prevention, Risk Management and Crisis
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Management
• Do you have a crisis management procedure? Turkish
companies -62%, Romanian - 34% ;
• How quick do you think that you can respond to this sort of
attacks? (intentional attack) The Turkish companies - 68%
(immediately and within a few hours), Romanian - 42%.
• Do you have a crisis recall system for the products? and if
you have a crisis recall system for the products, have you
ever tested it? show that 86% from Turkish companies have a
recall system for their products and this one is tested in
proportion of 68%, comparing with Romanian companies that
just 54% have a recall system and this is tested in proportion
of 43%.

10. Information management &communication
• Companies seem to share information with suppliers and consumers
about sources of product (Romania 78%, Turkey 63% - agree and
total agree) and product’s security (Romania 81%, Turkey 70%).
• With regard to communication management, companies do not
seem to have established awareness programs for employees and
chain members regarding intentional risks; (Romania 31%, Turkey
31%).
• Regarding management technology results indicate that just half of
the companies have implemented an information system that enable
them to quickly and consistently share information with their
employees and chain partners (Romania 59%, Turkey 41%).
• With regard to companies’ relationship management, companies
adopted penalty systems for non-compliance for employers and
suppliers (Romania 51%, Turkey 37%). However, almost all companies
do not have incentive systems (only 20% Romania, Turkey 22%).
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

11. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Selective bibliography of the topic
• Bouder, Slavin & Lofstedt (ed) (2009), The tolerability of Risk, Earthscan,
London; Brunet, Delvenne and Claisse (2010) ‘Food Chain Security and
Vulnerability’, in Alpas, Cirakoglu, (ed), Food Chain Security, Springer;
Closs (2005), ‘Dimensioning a secure supply chain’. Proceedings of the
institute of food technologists, First Annual Food Protection & Defence
Research Conference; Lee and Lemyre (2009), A Social-Cognitive
Perspective of Terrorism Risk Perception and Individual Response in
Canada. Risk Analysis, Vol. 29, No. 9; Renn (2009) ‘The Risk Handling
Chain’ in Bouder, Slavin & Lofstedt (ed), The tolerability of Risk, Earthscan,
London; Paton et al. (2005), When good intentions turn bad: Promoting
natural hazard preparedness, Australian Journal of Emergency
Management; Slovic & Weber (2002), Perception of risk posed by
extreme events. Paper presented at the conference Risk Management
Strategies in an Uncertain World, New York, April, 2002 apud Lee and
Lemyre, (2009); Subuh (2008), Security and robustness in food supply
chains in the Netherlands, MSc Thesis in MME, Wageningen University;
Takhistov and Bryant (2006), ‘Protecting the food supply’, International
Food Safety& Quality Network – discussion forum (Food Technology);
World Health Organization (2002) Terrorist threats to food: guidance for
establishing and strengthening prevention and response systems.

12. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Contacts
• Research project Risk/Crisis Communication during
Bioterrorism Threat. The Management of Messages and
Social Behavior http://parcc-bioterrorism.comunicare.ro/
• Main investigator: associate professor Irina Stănciugelu
irina.stanciugelu@comunicare.ro