This document presents a research proposal for identifying rumors on Twitter. It first defines rumors as unverified information statements circulating in contexts of ambiguity or threat that help people make sense of situations and manage risk. The proposal then discusses identifying rumors based on their context, function, and content. It suggests detecting sudden increases in word frequencies and mapping word connections to identify rumor-related terms. A rumor annotation scheme is proposed that considers context, function, content and ambiguity levels. Tweets would be categorized as speculation, controversy, misinformation or disinformation using chosen measures. The goal is to better understand rumor spreading online and provide context to interpretations.

1. Kim Holmberg, PhD
(e) kim.holmberg@abo.fi
(w3) http://kimholmberg.fi
Research plan/proposal on April 10, 2014
Identifying rumours
on Twitter

2. ”We define rumor as ’unverified and instrumentally
relevant information statements in circulation that
arise in contexts of ambiguity, danger or potential
threat, and that function to help people make sense
and manage risk’ (DiFonzo and Bordia, 2007: 13).
This definition highlights three facets of social
discourse: The context (the situation and/or
psychological need out of which discourse arises),
function (what people are trying to accomplish by
engaging in the discourse), and content (the types
of statements uttered).”
DiFonzo, N. & Bordia, P. (2007). Rumor, Gossip and Urban Legends.
Diogenes, vol. 54, no. 19. DOI: 10.1177/0392192107073433

3. “Rumors arise from situational contexts that are
ambiguous, threatening or potentially threatening,
and where people feel a psychological need for
understanding or security.”
• “physical insecurity and desire to enhance their
sense of security”
• “psychological insecurity and desire to enhance
the sense of self”
Context of a rumour
DiFonzo, N. & Bordia, P. (2007). Rumor, Gossip and Urban Legends.
Diogenes, vol. 54, no. 19. DOI: 10.1177/0392192107073433

4. Function of a rumour
DiFonzo, N. & Bordia, P. (2007). Rumor, Gossip and Urban Legends.
Diogenes, vol. 54, no. 19. DOI: 10.1177/0392192107073433
Rumors function to make collective sense (sense-making)
in an ambiguous situation and/or manage a threat
• “Opportunity to actively avoid or neutralize the threat”
• “Interpreting the dreaded negative event in a way that
reduces its emotional impact”
• “To build oneself up by putting other groups down”
• “Rumors can perform other functions, such as
entertainment, communication of group norms, and
defining social network power structure and
boundaries, but this is not their primary role.”

5. Content of a rumour
DiFonzo, N. & Bordia, P. (2007). Rumor, Gossip and Urban Legends.
Diogenes, vol. 54, no. 19. DOI: 10.1177/0392192107073433
• Rumours are information statements (they are
declarative rather than directive or interrogatory)
• A rumour is transmitted, the information
statements are communicated through people
• These information statements are perceived as
relatively useful in some way
• Rumours are unverified

6. How can we identify rumours,
verify information and track their origin?

7. Context – Function – Content
Identifying rumours

8. Content of a rumour
DiFonzo, N. & Bordia, P. (2007). Rumor, Gossip and Urban Legends.
Diogenes, vol. 54, no. 19. DOI: 10.1177/0392192107073433
• Rumours are information statements
(they are declarative rather than directive or
interrogatory)
• A rumour is transmitted, the information
statements are communicated through people
• These information statements are perceived as
relatively useful in some way
• Rumours are unverified

9. A rumour is transmitted

10. “There are measurable differences in the way
microblog messages propagate. The paper
shows that these differences are related to
the newsworthiness and credibility of the
information conveyed, and describes features
[e.g. number of followers, URLs, sentiment,
etc.] in the tweets, that are effective for
classifying information automatically as
credible or not credible.”
Castillo, C., Mendoza, M. & Poblete, B. (2012). Predicting information credibility in
time-sensitive social media. Internet Research, vol. 23, no. 5, pp. 560-588.
A rumour is transmitted

11. A rumour is transmitted
Data about the
tweet (e.g. number
of retweets, URLs),
tweeter (e.g. activity
on Twitter) and
tweeter’s network
(number of
following/followers)

12. Bla bla bla bla
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Rumours are information statements

13. Rumours are information statements
Bordia, P. & Difonzo, N. (2004). Problem Solving in Social Interactions
on the Internet: Rumor As Social Cognition. Social Psychology
Quarterly, vol. 67, no. 33. DOI: 10.1177/019027250406700105
Most prevalent types of statements identified by RIAS (Rumor
Interaction Analysis System):
• Interrogatory: questions seeking information
• Sensemaking: implied attempts at solving a problem, namely
whether or not the rumor was true
• Providing information: were statements that included
material relevant to the rumor under discussion
• Disbelief: indicated disbelief a person’s disbelief in the rumor
• Digressive: were not directly relevant to the original rumor,
as in narrating some experience or seeking information that
was not relevant.

14. • Interrogatory
• Sensemaking
• Providing information
• Disbelief
• Digressive

15. Rumours are information statements
http://www.pheme.eu/
Four types of phemes (rumorous memes) or online rumours
based on their level of harmfullness:
• Speculation:
the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence
• Controversy:
prolonged public disagreement or heated discussion
• Misinformation:
false or inaccurate information that is spread unintentionally
• Disinformation:
intentionally false or inaccurate information that is spread
deliberately

16. Identifying rumours: Research proposal
• Spike and/or Burst detection
o detect sudden increases in word frequencies
• Co-word analysis
o map connections between frequent words
• Network analysis
o identify word clusters, central words and outliers,
but perhaps also data about the tweeters and
their social networks to identify the most likely
tweeters to start/spread rumours (see Castillo et
al., 2012)
To identify relevant words and phrases, that may be
unique for rumours:

17. Identifying rumours: Research proposal
Context
Information
Rumours

18. Identifying rumours: Research proposal
• Annotation scheme
• Tweet level vs word level annotation
• Ideally something in between or a combination
• Level of ambiguity
• Level of uncertainty/skepticism
• Level of sensationalism
• Sentiment of tweet (see Castillo et al., 2012)
• and more...

19. Identifying rumours: Research proposal
Annotation scheme: Example
Context
Function
Content (that may indicate a possible rumour)
Vague, ambiguous,
uncertainty

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Identifying rumours: Research proposal
Using the chosen measures categorize tweets into
speculative, controversal, misinformation and
disinformation
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Speculation Controversy
Misinformation Disinformation

21. Identifying rumours: Research proposal
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Speculation
Controversy
Misinformation
Disinformation
Verified
information
Unclear
Perhaps a tweet can simultaneously score on
different measures?

22. World Economic Forum
Top 10 trends of 2014:
10. The rapid spread of misinformation online
“Finally, we should remember that every case of misinformation
is unique and should be considered independently, paying
attention to the complexities of the ecosystem it circulates
within. In terms of interpreting misinformation, human
evaluation will remain essential to put information into context,
and context is ultimately what this is all about.”
http://reports.weforum.org/outlook-14/top-ten-trends-category-
page/10-the-rapid-spread-of-misinformation-online/

23. Kim Holmberg
kim.holmberg@abo.fi
http://kimholmberg.fi
@kholmber
Thank you for your attention