Dorling discusses trends showing increasing inequalities in life expectancy between different areas in the UK. He notes that the gap between best and worst areas has reached its highest point since the 1880s. If current trends continue unabated, Dorling predicts we will soon see life expectancy beginning to fall in some of the most disadvantaged regions. However, he argues this outcome is not inevitable and that policies aimed at reducing inequality could help ensure rises in life expectancy are more evenly shared across all areas.
The document discusses trends in the UK population including aging, immigration, and regional shifts. Some key points:
- The proportion of over-60s is expected to rise significantly, increasing the dependency ratio and challenging the economy.
- Immigration has helped offset population aging but its future impact is uncertain.
- Younger workers have moved to southern and eastern regions while older residents settle in coastal and rural areas.
- The upcoming decades will see the large "baby boom" generation retire, placing greater burden on a smaller working-age population to support them. Careful planning is needed to address this challenge.
Aging of the future will be different from aging of the pastRon Cheshire
1. Population aging will be different in the future compared to the past due to declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancies which are resulting in an older population profile.
2. Social programs and pension plans were established in the 1960s under different demographic conditions characterized by population growth and a younger population structure.
3. The demographic dividend from growing populations is now a thing of the past as fertility rates have stabilized at lower levels.
Coined in the 1980’s, the VUCA acronym has been an
apt summary of recent decades (Volatility, Uncertainty,
Complexity and Ambiguity). In 2018 at the World Economic
Forum, the Prime Minister of Canada highlighted the
increasing acceleration of the trends with his statement: “The
pace of change has never been this fast, yet it will never be
this slow again”. Yet all of this was before the global COVID-19
pandemic further disrupted and transformed our times.
In such times, analysis of the trends and regular scans of
the horizon is essential to thrive amidst the transformations.
The primary characteristic of a leader, which enables the
important strengths of vision and decisiveness, is foresight.
The reason they can lead is that, having understood the
trends, they are able to see things not just as they are, but as
they will be.
At McCrindle we exist to empower human flourishing by
equipping leaders with research-based insight. Indeed
the leader with the honed characteristic of foresight, and
equipped with evidence-based insight is able to do more than
just see the future, they take up the great responsibility to
shape it.
We trust this report will help you understand the times,
prepare you for the emerging megatrends, and equip you to
lead and grow your team, community and organisation with
both humility and confidence.
Inequalities matter: An investigation into the impact of deprivation on inequ...ILC- UK
Professor Les Mayhew Professor of Statistics, Cass Business School, is presenting the emerging patterns of inequalities and life expectancy and their wider implications for social and economic policy.
Explaining the characteristics underpinning the Brexit vote across different parts of the UK, by Resolution Foundation's Stephen Clarke and Matthew Whittaker.
The document discusses divisions in British society following the Brexit vote and prospects for the future. It finds that the public sees Britain as divided between "haves" and "have nots", with the "have nots" more likely to have voted for Brexit. While income inequality has remained steady, living standards have stagnated, exacerbated by rising housing costs. Areas with higher levels of education, diversity, and economic opportunity were less likely to vote for Brexit. Looking ahead, Brexit is expected to further slow economic growth and planned welfare cuts will likely increase divisions. For many, the new Prime Minister must take action to address existing challenges around earnings, housing, and regional inequality to unite Britain.
This is a keynote presentation I made at Idaho State University on October 19, 2012 at the 5th Annual Thomas Geriatric Health Symposium in Pocatello, Idaho. It was also streamed to the Meridian campus. I discuss demographics, how boomers will change the aging culture and the impact on Medicare and Social Security.
The Silver Tsunami: Are We Prepared for a Senior Housing Population Boom in R...Housing Assistance Council
This presentation was given for a webinar from the Housing Assistance Council (HAC) on May 1, 2013. It is a look at rural demographics through the filter of seniors. Rural America is, on average, older than the rest of the country, and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future.
The document discusses trends in the UK population including aging, immigration, and regional shifts. Some key points:
- The proportion of over-60s is expected to rise significantly, increasing the dependency ratio and challenging the economy.
- Immigration has helped offset population aging but its future impact is uncertain.
- Younger workers have moved to southern and eastern regions while older residents settle in coastal and rural areas.
- The upcoming decades will see the large "baby boom" generation retire, placing greater burden on a smaller working-age population to support them. Careful planning is needed to address this challenge.
Aging of the future will be different from aging of the pastRon Cheshire
1. Population aging will be different in the future compared to the past due to declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancies which are resulting in an older population profile.
2. Social programs and pension plans were established in the 1960s under different demographic conditions characterized by population growth and a younger population structure.
3. The demographic dividend from growing populations is now a thing of the past as fertility rates have stabilized at lower levels.
Coined in the 1980’s, the VUCA acronym has been an
apt summary of recent decades (Volatility, Uncertainty,
Complexity and Ambiguity). In 2018 at the World Economic
Forum, the Prime Minister of Canada highlighted the
increasing acceleration of the trends with his statement: “The
pace of change has never been this fast, yet it will never be
this slow again”. Yet all of this was before the global COVID-19
pandemic further disrupted and transformed our times.
In such times, analysis of the trends and regular scans of
the horizon is essential to thrive amidst the transformations.
The primary characteristic of a leader, which enables the
important strengths of vision and decisiveness, is foresight.
The reason they can lead is that, having understood the
trends, they are able to see things not just as they are, but as
they will be.
At McCrindle we exist to empower human flourishing by
equipping leaders with research-based insight. Indeed
the leader with the honed characteristic of foresight, and
equipped with evidence-based insight is able to do more than
just see the future, they take up the great responsibility to
shape it.
We trust this report will help you understand the times,
prepare you for the emerging megatrends, and equip you to
lead and grow your team, community and organisation with
both humility and confidence.
Inequalities matter: An investigation into the impact of deprivation on inequ...ILC- UK
Professor Les Mayhew Professor of Statistics, Cass Business School, is presenting the emerging patterns of inequalities and life expectancy and their wider implications for social and economic policy.
Explaining the characteristics underpinning the Brexit vote across different parts of the UK, by Resolution Foundation's Stephen Clarke and Matthew Whittaker.
The document discusses divisions in British society following the Brexit vote and prospects for the future. It finds that the public sees Britain as divided between "haves" and "have nots", with the "have nots" more likely to have voted for Brexit. While income inequality has remained steady, living standards have stagnated, exacerbated by rising housing costs. Areas with higher levels of education, diversity, and economic opportunity were less likely to vote for Brexit. Looking ahead, Brexit is expected to further slow economic growth and planned welfare cuts will likely increase divisions. For many, the new Prime Minister must take action to address existing challenges around earnings, housing, and regional inequality to unite Britain.
This is a keynote presentation I made at Idaho State University on October 19, 2012 at the 5th Annual Thomas Geriatric Health Symposium in Pocatello, Idaho. It was also streamed to the Meridian campus. I discuss demographics, how boomers will change the aging culture and the impact on Medicare and Social Security.
The Silver Tsunami: Are We Prepared for a Senior Housing Population Boom in R...Housing Assistance Council
This presentation was given for a webinar from the Housing Assistance Council (HAC) on May 1, 2013. It is a look at rural demographics through the filter of seniors. Rural America is, on average, older than the rest of the country, and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future.
The U.S. Census Bureau released a report in 2014 detailing the growth of the aging population. The senior population, defined as those 65 and older, comprised 13% of the total U.S. population in 2010. That number is expected to rise to nearly 21% by 2050. For the full report, visit http://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2014/demo/p23-212.pdf. For more about the Professional Development in Gerontology Certificate, visit ccpe.kennesaw.edu/gerontology.
We held a webinar with the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) for an in-depth look at the factors affecting working lifetimes, the impact of demographic changes and the implications for future policy.
Key questions we looked at were:
What changes are we seeing in our demographics?
How might working lives change?
Do longer lives equate to healthier lives?
Exploring this with us were:
Chair: Sophia Dimitriadis (Senior Economist, ILC)
Matt Gurden – Actuarial Director for Clients Development and Growth, Government Actuary Department
Steven Baxter – Head of Innovation and Development, Club Vita
The document summarizes key population trends in Australia from 1980 to 2020. It notes that total population is expected to increase steadily, reaching 24.7 million by 2020. The population is aging, with the largest gains occurring among those over 60. Immigration accounts for over half of population growth and the workforce is increasing faster than the total population. The number of elderly people is projected to nearly triple between 1980 and 2020.
This document analyzes public health trends in metro Atlanta neighborhoods. It finds that while overall health has generally improved due to declining mortality rates, some issues remain problems. Diabetes rates and low birthweight births are increasing in many counties. Place and race are common factors for worse health outcomes. Areas with high poverty and non-white populations see more premature deaths, diabetes cases, and low birthweight babies. While most metro Atlanta counties rank highly for health outcomes, problem areas tend to be in southern parts of the region.
The Changing Family Structure in the Atlanta RegionARCResearch
- Between 1970 and 2010, the percentage of families with children headed by single parents in the Atlanta region increased dramatically from less than 14% to almost 34%.
- Every county in the region saw double-digit percentage point increases in single-parent families over this period, with only Fulton county seeing a decrease between 2000-2010.
- Conversely, the proportion of husband-wife families decreased significantly across the region from nearly 71% in 1970 to 46% in 2010.
The document provides demographic data for the EBDI redevelopment project area and surrounding Greater East Baltimore neighborhood, comparing statistics from 2000 to 2010. It finds that the population in the EBDI area decreased significantly, with fewer households and children. Poverty rates increased while income levels rose slightly on average. Housing units decreased substantially, with large drops in homeownership. The neighborhood experienced income inequality and high rates of poverty, though the number of very low-income residents decreased.
Family and population are closely linked. The size, age structure, and characteristics of a population are studied in demography. Factors like birth rates, death rates, and migration influence population size. In the UK, the population grew from 10.5 million in 1801 to 61 million in 2007 due to declining death rates and increasing births, though birth rates have since declined. An aging population with fewer births and more deaths means the UK population is projected to rise more slowly to 71 million by 2031.
The pie charts show the sources of revenue and expenditures for a US children's charity in one year. The charity received over $53 million total, with most coming from individual donations (40%) and foundations (30%). It spent most of its budget on programs that benefit children directly (55%), with the remainder going to administration (25%) and fundraising (20%).
How stalling life expectancy is impacting the UK economyILCUK
Life expectancy for people aged over 50 has started to fall, new research from the International Longevity Centre – UK (ILC) reveals. The analysis finds that changes to the health and life expectancy of people over 50 will have a significant impact on the economy. The fall in healthy life expectancy will result in more people dropping out of work earlier than anticipated.
ILC, the leading authority on the impact of longevity on society, reveals reveal that:
• Life expectancy for fifty-year-olds is now 2.3 years less than it would have been had the long-established trend continued.
• Every year of lost life expectancy results in 2.6 years less spent in good health.
• A UK man dying at age 80 could expect to spend on average 64.5 years in good health, but if his life expectancy is only 78, he will spend less than 60 years in good health.
ILC point out that a fall in life expectancy is generally preceded by a period of ill health which can vary in length according to pre-existing health conditions, age and other factors.
uk changing population power point.ppt r.kennedy/mrs carsons lessonyear12blanchgeography
The UK population is growing older as birth rates decline and life expectancy increases. While natural change still contributes to population growth, net international migration has become the main driver of increases in recent decades. The growing retired population is putting pressure on state pension and healthcare systems, and each working person will need to support more non-working retirees in the future. Projections estimate the UK population will peak at 65 million in 2050 before declining.
The document defines key demographic terms like dependency ratio, immigration, emigration, and birth rate. It also lists the A8 countries that joined the EU in 2004. The document contains questions about population pyramids and changes in different countries and regions.
Closing Address at the Annual Conference of the Equality TrustDanny Dorling
Closing Address by Danny Dorling given at the Annual Conference of the Equality Trust, London, 30th October 2010. See and hear the full multimedia material from this and many other talks at http://sasi.group.shef.ac.uk/presentations/
Policy Debate: Longevity, health and public policy. How should policy-makers ...ILC- UK
Launch of ILC-UK Factpack, Ageing, longevity and demographic change, Supported by Legal & General
his important briefing event, for journalists and senior policy-makers and opinion formers, set out the latest evidence on longevity and explore the extent to which government and business (financial services industry) is responding to the challenges. We will consider the extent to which longevity is influencing government and business decisions and how media and policy-makers can help to ensure that important longevity issues are taken into account.
For example, the Government has set out plans to increase the state pension age to 66 years from 2018, and 67 years from 2026. They have also announced plans to automatically link state pension age with increased longevity.
Whilst the driver of change has partly been the need for Government to cut spending and make fiscal savings, there is also a recognition that people will be spending an increasing proportion of their lives in retirement. Although we may be living longer on average, many are likely to be doing so in poor health. In parts of the country life expectancy is much lower than the UK average.
In addition, on 26th June the Government will announce its latest spending review. The impact of future spending demands of an ageing society will undoubtedly influence this review so the event will consider the extent to which Government’s current spending priorities have adequately taken into account long term demographic change and how the private sector can contribute.
The event took place just after the launch of the latest Office of Budget Responsibility fiscal sustainability report which set out the long term impact of ageing on fiscal sustainability. In its 2012 report, the OBR said; “The public finances are likely to come under pressure over the longer term, primarily as a result of an ageing population.”
ILC-UK launched a new factpack, Ageing, longevity and demographic change, which has been produced with the support of Legal & General. The factpack will help those with an interest in population ageing and longevity to quickly access key, relevant statistics.
Speakers: Baroness Sally Greengross, ILC-UK; Kerrigan Procter, Legal & General; Joseph Lu, Legal & General; Professor Les Mayhew, Cass Business School; Professor Michael Murphy, London School of Economics; Tim Gosden, Legal & General; David Sinclair, ILC-UK.
The bar chart shows the percentage of the population aged 65 and over in the US from 1900 to 2000. It increased from just over 4% in 1900 to 12.4% in 2000. The number of people aged 75-84 remained steady from 1900 to 1930 but then increased sharply, tripling to 3% of the population by 1970. While the percentage aged 65-74 did not change from 1960 to 1970, the percentage aged 75 and over grew during this period.
This document summarizes key demographic trends in the UK since 1900, including declines in birth and death rates leading to an aging population. It discusses the decline in birth rates due to factors like changes in women's roles and declining infant mortality. Death rates have also declined due to improved public health and sanitation. As a result, life expectancy has doubled from 50 to over 80 years old now. This aging population impacts society through increasing costs for public services and dependency ratios, requiring policy changes to finance longer lifespans.
Grey(t) Britain: lessons for an ageing society - presentationResolutionFoundation
The document discusses the aging population trends in the UK. It notes that there are many baby boomers, employment rates for older workers have surged with the 50-64 rate increasing 16 percentage points, and the dependency ratio is rising as baby boomers retire. However, the country is not aging equally, with some local authorities already having a higher percentage of those over 65 than Japan, though most areas will see their elderly populations grow substantially by 2039.
This document summarizes key findings from Wales' 2017-18 Well-being of Wales report on progress towards its 7 well-being goals. It finds that while life expectancy has increased, recent gains have slowed. Healthy life expectancy varies greatly between socioeconomic groups. Obesity levels remain high, especially in children, though some health behaviors like smoking and breastfeeding have improved. Educational attainment is up though disadvantages persist. Poverty rates are steady while the environment shows mixed progress with greenhouse gas increases but more renewable energy.
This report, containing new research by Professor Les Mayhew reveals that the life expectancy gap between the richest and poorest has begun to increase. The research reveals that the richest 5% of men are living an average of 96.2 years, which is 34.2 years longer than the poorest 10% of men. The gap is 1.7 years wider than in 1993.
There are likely to be significant unintended consequences of further increases to State Pension Age in 2028. Increasing State Pension Age up to levels where disability rates are higher, raises concerns about transferring spending from the State Pension to disability or other working age benefits. Increasing the State Pension Age further might also impact on the supply of carers. And will employers be prepared for further increases in the State Pension Age?
Public policy is beginning to recognise the challenges ahead. The DWP Select Committee are currently conducting an Inquiry into “early drawing of the state pension”. Labour have proposed a flexible state pension age so manual workers can retire earlier than other workers. Are there other, potentially more radical solutions to the inequalities challenge?
The U.S. Census Bureau released a report in 2014 detailing the growth of the aging population. The senior population, defined as those 65 and older, comprised 13% of the total U.S. population in 2010. That number is expected to rise to nearly 21% by 2050. For the full report, visit http://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2014/demo/p23-212.pdf. For more about the Professional Development in Gerontology Certificate, visit ccpe.kennesaw.edu/gerontology.
We held a webinar with the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) for an in-depth look at the factors affecting working lifetimes, the impact of demographic changes and the implications for future policy.
Key questions we looked at were:
What changes are we seeing in our demographics?
How might working lives change?
Do longer lives equate to healthier lives?
Exploring this with us were:
Chair: Sophia Dimitriadis (Senior Economist, ILC)
Matt Gurden – Actuarial Director for Clients Development and Growth, Government Actuary Department
Steven Baxter – Head of Innovation and Development, Club Vita
The document summarizes key population trends in Australia from 1980 to 2020. It notes that total population is expected to increase steadily, reaching 24.7 million by 2020. The population is aging, with the largest gains occurring among those over 60. Immigration accounts for over half of population growth and the workforce is increasing faster than the total population. The number of elderly people is projected to nearly triple between 1980 and 2020.
This document analyzes public health trends in metro Atlanta neighborhoods. It finds that while overall health has generally improved due to declining mortality rates, some issues remain problems. Diabetes rates and low birthweight births are increasing in many counties. Place and race are common factors for worse health outcomes. Areas with high poverty and non-white populations see more premature deaths, diabetes cases, and low birthweight babies. While most metro Atlanta counties rank highly for health outcomes, problem areas tend to be in southern parts of the region.
The Changing Family Structure in the Atlanta RegionARCResearch
- Between 1970 and 2010, the percentage of families with children headed by single parents in the Atlanta region increased dramatically from less than 14% to almost 34%.
- Every county in the region saw double-digit percentage point increases in single-parent families over this period, with only Fulton county seeing a decrease between 2000-2010.
- Conversely, the proportion of husband-wife families decreased significantly across the region from nearly 71% in 1970 to 46% in 2010.
The document provides demographic data for the EBDI redevelopment project area and surrounding Greater East Baltimore neighborhood, comparing statistics from 2000 to 2010. It finds that the population in the EBDI area decreased significantly, with fewer households and children. Poverty rates increased while income levels rose slightly on average. Housing units decreased substantially, with large drops in homeownership. The neighborhood experienced income inequality and high rates of poverty, though the number of very low-income residents decreased.
Family and population are closely linked. The size, age structure, and characteristics of a population are studied in demography. Factors like birth rates, death rates, and migration influence population size. In the UK, the population grew from 10.5 million in 1801 to 61 million in 2007 due to declining death rates and increasing births, though birth rates have since declined. An aging population with fewer births and more deaths means the UK population is projected to rise more slowly to 71 million by 2031.
The pie charts show the sources of revenue and expenditures for a US children's charity in one year. The charity received over $53 million total, with most coming from individual donations (40%) and foundations (30%). It spent most of its budget on programs that benefit children directly (55%), with the remainder going to administration (25%) and fundraising (20%).
How stalling life expectancy is impacting the UK economyILCUK
Life expectancy for people aged over 50 has started to fall, new research from the International Longevity Centre – UK (ILC) reveals. The analysis finds that changes to the health and life expectancy of people over 50 will have a significant impact on the economy. The fall in healthy life expectancy will result in more people dropping out of work earlier than anticipated.
ILC, the leading authority on the impact of longevity on society, reveals reveal that:
• Life expectancy for fifty-year-olds is now 2.3 years less than it would have been had the long-established trend continued.
• Every year of lost life expectancy results in 2.6 years less spent in good health.
• A UK man dying at age 80 could expect to spend on average 64.5 years in good health, but if his life expectancy is only 78, he will spend less than 60 years in good health.
ILC point out that a fall in life expectancy is generally preceded by a period of ill health which can vary in length according to pre-existing health conditions, age and other factors.
uk changing population power point.ppt r.kennedy/mrs carsons lessonyear12blanchgeography
The UK population is growing older as birth rates decline and life expectancy increases. While natural change still contributes to population growth, net international migration has become the main driver of increases in recent decades. The growing retired population is putting pressure on state pension and healthcare systems, and each working person will need to support more non-working retirees in the future. Projections estimate the UK population will peak at 65 million in 2050 before declining.
The document defines key demographic terms like dependency ratio, immigration, emigration, and birth rate. It also lists the A8 countries that joined the EU in 2004. The document contains questions about population pyramids and changes in different countries and regions.
Closing Address at the Annual Conference of the Equality TrustDanny Dorling
Closing Address by Danny Dorling given at the Annual Conference of the Equality Trust, London, 30th October 2010. See and hear the full multimedia material from this and many other talks at http://sasi.group.shef.ac.uk/presentations/
Policy Debate: Longevity, health and public policy. How should policy-makers ...ILC- UK
Launch of ILC-UK Factpack, Ageing, longevity and demographic change, Supported by Legal & General
his important briefing event, for journalists and senior policy-makers and opinion formers, set out the latest evidence on longevity and explore the extent to which government and business (financial services industry) is responding to the challenges. We will consider the extent to which longevity is influencing government and business decisions and how media and policy-makers can help to ensure that important longevity issues are taken into account.
For example, the Government has set out plans to increase the state pension age to 66 years from 2018, and 67 years from 2026. They have also announced plans to automatically link state pension age with increased longevity.
Whilst the driver of change has partly been the need for Government to cut spending and make fiscal savings, there is also a recognition that people will be spending an increasing proportion of their lives in retirement. Although we may be living longer on average, many are likely to be doing so in poor health. In parts of the country life expectancy is much lower than the UK average.
In addition, on 26th June the Government will announce its latest spending review. The impact of future spending demands of an ageing society will undoubtedly influence this review so the event will consider the extent to which Government’s current spending priorities have adequately taken into account long term demographic change and how the private sector can contribute.
The event took place just after the launch of the latest Office of Budget Responsibility fiscal sustainability report which set out the long term impact of ageing on fiscal sustainability. In its 2012 report, the OBR said; “The public finances are likely to come under pressure over the longer term, primarily as a result of an ageing population.”
ILC-UK launched a new factpack, Ageing, longevity and demographic change, which has been produced with the support of Legal & General. The factpack will help those with an interest in population ageing and longevity to quickly access key, relevant statistics.
Speakers: Baroness Sally Greengross, ILC-UK; Kerrigan Procter, Legal & General; Joseph Lu, Legal & General; Professor Les Mayhew, Cass Business School; Professor Michael Murphy, London School of Economics; Tim Gosden, Legal & General; David Sinclair, ILC-UK.
The bar chart shows the percentage of the population aged 65 and over in the US from 1900 to 2000. It increased from just over 4% in 1900 to 12.4% in 2000. The number of people aged 75-84 remained steady from 1900 to 1930 but then increased sharply, tripling to 3% of the population by 1970. While the percentage aged 65-74 did not change from 1960 to 1970, the percentage aged 75 and over grew during this period.
This document summarizes key demographic trends in the UK since 1900, including declines in birth and death rates leading to an aging population. It discusses the decline in birth rates due to factors like changes in women's roles and declining infant mortality. Death rates have also declined due to improved public health and sanitation. As a result, life expectancy has doubled from 50 to over 80 years old now. This aging population impacts society through increasing costs for public services and dependency ratios, requiring policy changes to finance longer lifespans.
Grey(t) Britain: lessons for an ageing society - presentationResolutionFoundation
The document discusses the aging population trends in the UK. It notes that there are many baby boomers, employment rates for older workers have surged with the 50-64 rate increasing 16 percentage points, and the dependency ratio is rising as baby boomers retire. However, the country is not aging equally, with some local authorities already having a higher percentage of those over 65 than Japan, though most areas will see their elderly populations grow substantially by 2039.
This document summarizes key findings from Wales' 2017-18 Well-being of Wales report on progress towards its 7 well-being goals. It finds that while life expectancy has increased, recent gains have slowed. Healthy life expectancy varies greatly between socioeconomic groups. Obesity levels remain high, especially in children, though some health behaviors like smoking and breastfeeding have improved. Educational attainment is up though disadvantages persist. Poverty rates are steady while the environment shows mixed progress with greenhouse gas increases but more renewable energy.
This report, containing new research by Professor Les Mayhew reveals that the life expectancy gap between the richest and poorest has begun to increase. The research reveals that the richest 5% of men are living an average of 96.2 years, which is 34.2 years longer than the poorest 10% of men. The gap is 1.7 years wider than in 1993.
There are likely to be significant unintended consequences of further increases to State Pension Age in 2028. Increasing State Pension Age up to levels where disability rates are higher, raises concerns about transferring spending from the State Pension to disability or other working age benefits. Increasing the State Pension Age further might also impact on the supply of carers. And will employers be prepared for further increases in the State Pension Age?
Public policy is beginning to recognise the challenges ahead. The DWP Select Committee are currently conducting an Inquiry into “early drawing of the state pension”. Labour have proposed a flexible state pension age so manual workers can retire earlier than other workers. Are there other, potentially more radical solutions to the inequalities challenge?
The document provides guidance on writing Task 1 of the IELTS exam. It explains that Task 1 requires summarizing information from sources like charts, tables, diagrams or graphs. It provides examples of introducing and summarizing different types of sources like line graphs, bar diagrams and pie charts. It also gives templates and phrases for comparing data, describing trends over time, and outlining processes. Templates are provided for introducing overall trends, supporting details, and comparing data to help effectively summarize the key features of visual sources in Task 1 writing.
The changing face of ageing: From baby boom to baby bustILC- UK
The UK population has been growing at the rate of 0.4% % per cent annum. This presentation looks at the impact of baby boomers on population ageing; the increasing number of deaths from earlier baby booms; and the impact on the state pension age, housing market and inheritance
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Laboratory Services | Mid-Year 2016Mercer Capital
The document discusses the laboratory services industry, which has experienced revenue growth of 2.2% annually between 2010-2015. The industry comprises several testing segments and is projected to grow 3.4% annually over the next 5 years due to increased regulation and standards. An aging population also contributes to demand for medical laboratory services. The number of Americans over 65 is projected to more than double by 2060, increasing testing needs. Revenue and the number of industry establishments have risen in tandem due to growing research and development expenditures.
This document provides information about demography and population trends through history and around the world. It discusses world population growth over time, showing that it took longer to add each subsequent billion people. It also shows population growth patterns between more developed and less developed regions. Other topics summarized include the demographic transition model, which predicts changes in birth and death rates as countries develop, population pyramids and what they indicate about a population, and factors that influence population growth and distribution.
This document analyzes the impact of an aging population in the United Kingdom. It begins with an introduction that shows data demonstrating the aging trend, with the population over age 65 increasing over 5 times from 1911 to 2011. The document then outlines its aims to determine if the perceived economic burdens of an aging population are offset by benefits. It will analyze the issue through the lenses of economics, employment, transport, and health. The relevance is that an aging population accounts for a large portion of welfare spending, so it seeks to understand if cuts could be justified or if the elderly provide benefits not reflected in economic figures alone.
HLEG thematic workshop on Measuring Inequalities of Income and Wealth, Facund...StatsCommunications
Presentation at the HLEG thematic workshop on Measuring Inequalities of Income and Wealth, 15-16 September 2015, Berlin, Germany, http://oe.cd/hleg-workshop-inequalities-income-and-wealth
Danny Dorling is a Professor of Human Geography at the University of Sheffield. He went to various schools in Oxford and to University in Newcastle upon Tyne. He has worked in Newcastle, Bristol, Leeds and New Zealand. With a group of colleagues he helped create the website www.worldmapper.org which shows who has most and least in the world.
He has published with others more than 25 books on issues related to social inequalities and several hundred journal papers. Much of this work is available open access (see www.dannydorling.org). His work concerns issues of housing, health, employment, education and poverty. His recent books include, three co-authored texts: "Identity in Britain:
A cradle-to-grave atlas", "The Atlas of the Real World: Mapping the way we live" and "Bankrupt Britain: an atlas of social change". Recent sole authored books include, "Injustice: why social inequalities persist” in 2010 and "So you think you know about Britain" and “Fair Play”, both in 2011.
In 2008/9 he was a member of the Academic Reference Group advising Ministers on the Social Mobility White Paper. In 2009 he joined the World Health Organization's Scientific Resource Group on Health Equity Analysis and Research and the advisory group of the Equality Trust. He is a Patron of the charity RoadPeace, an Academician of the Academy of the Learned Societies in the Social Sciences and, in 2008, became Honorary President of the Society of Cartographers.
Before a career in academia Danny was employed as a play-worker in children's play-schemes and in pre-school education where the underlying rationale was that playing is learning for living. He tries not to forget this by playing with data surrounding people’s lives and representing the results in new, novel and stark ways which usually reveal the inequality of the lives we each live.
Similar to How long before we see life expectancy falling in some areas? (20)
This document contains 14 figures from the book "Peak Inequality: Britain's ticking time bomb" by Danny Dorling. The figures show trends in topics like infant mortality rates, EU referendum voting patterns, UK general elections, housing prices, income inequality, and reasons for homelessness in Britain from 2008 to 2020. The figures are accompanied by source information and brief captions.
Social Inequalities
Big Data, Small Area symposium to celebrate 30 years of the Small Area Health Statistics Unit (SAHSU)
Danny Dorling
November 15th 2017
A talk based on a short book written with Carl Lee
Maps by Benjamin Hennig
Danny Dorling
University of Oxford, School of Geography & Environment
November 8th, 2017
Another World is Inevitable: Mapping UK General ElectionsDanny Dorling
This lecture by Professor Danny Dorling (held at the British Library 28 Nov 2016) is about how British general elections have been mapped in the past, but with a concentration on the very recent past and especially in 2015. There will also be speculation about what the future may hold, not just in terms of new political mapping techniques but in the much wider range of possible electoral outcomes we should consider as being plausible. Rather like meteorologists, political scientists have a tendency to use recent events to predict the political weather. However, if and when the climate changes, what was once thought to be impossible becomes reality. From choosing which colours to use to depict a growing range of parties on the map, through to how we might depict uncertainly in our predictions, we have choices to make. Danny will ask how ready we are to entertain the possibility of rapid change. Eventually everything always changes. At some times change comes quickly.
- See more at: https://www.bl.uk/events/another-world-is-inevitable-mapping-uk-general-elections
The EU - Should we stay or should we go?Danny Dorling
This document discusses several issues related to the UK's membership in the EU. It notes that inequality is higher in the UK than other EU countries. It also discusses polarization in the UK, differences in health and education outcomes compared to other developed nations, and issues related to the UK's declining global power and changing national identity. Overall, it argues that leaving the EU will not necessarily solve the UK's problems and that the EU is not responsible for many domestic issues like inequality and underfunding of healthcare.
The Geography of our Future: Understanding the consequences of the AnthropoceneDanny Dorling
This document discusses the concept of the Anthropocene and how humans have become a dominant geological force impacting the Earth. It outlines 5 potential stages of the Anthropocene from early agriculture to the current Great Acceleration period, noting key events like the Columbian Exchange and Industrial Revolutions that drove major environmental changes. While some impacts were small prior to the 1800s, the document argues that the scale of human influences has grown enormously in recent centuries through population growth, consumption, and the rise of neoliberal capitalism. It questions whether future trends could lead to severe environmental consequences like a 4°C rise in temperatures, and explores potential pathways to a more equitable and sustainable future geography.
Injustice - Why Social Inequality Still PersistsDanny Dorling
Slide deck showing the figures used in the book by Danny Dorling. View further details on the book companion website at http://www.dannydorling.org/books/injustice/
Theories of Potential and the Creation of InequalityDanny Dorling
This document discusses theories of potential and how inequality is created. It touches on several topics:
- How individual characteristics like looks, sex, height can affect snap judgments and influence potential but societal factors matter most.
- Potential is influenced by many factors from early life through adulthood, including family circumstances, where one lives, and access to opportunities like internships.
- While some argue only a few have great potential, the document argues potential is collective and not realizing everyone's potential perpetuates inequality. Genes may provide small advantages but no "super genes"; environment and society are larger influences on one's path in life.
Slides from a talk by Danny Dorling at the Oxford Empathy Festival, Blackwell’s Bookshop, Oxford, June 8th 2015. See more information at http://www.dannydorling.org/?p=4742
Accompanying slides for the book "The Population of the UK" by Danny Dorling, Cartography by Benjamin Hennig, published by Sage (2012)
http://www.uk.sagepub.com/books/Book238949
Accompanying slides for the book "The Population of the UK" by Danny Dorling, Cartography by Benjamin Hennig, published by Sage (2012)
http://www.uk.sagepub.com/books/Book238949
This document discusses trends in employment in the United Kingdom from 1991-2000 based on census data. It shows that there was a decline in manufacturing jobs and a rise in finance sector employment, contributing to a polarization of industries. Additionally, it found an increase in both high-paid professional occupations and low-paid elementary jobs, further segmenting society. A key trend was a rise in dual-income households and declining numbers of people who are permanently sick or disabled.
Accompanying slides for the book "The Population of the UK" by Danny Dorling, Cartography by Benjamin Hennig, published by Sage (2012)
http://www.uk.sagepub.com/books/Book238949
Accompanying slides for the book "The Population of the UK" by Danny Dorling, Cartography by Benjamin Hennig, published by Sage (2012)
http://www.uk.sagepub.com/books/Book238949
Accompanying slides for the book "The Population of the UK" by Danny Dorling, Cartography by Benjamin Hennig, published by Sage (2012)
http://www.uk.sagepub.com/books/Book238949
How to Control Your Asthma Tips by gokuldas hospital.Gokuldas Hospital
Respiratory issues like asthma are the most sensitive issue that is affecting millions worldwide. It hampers the daily activities leaving the body tired and breathless.
The key to a good grip on asthma is proper knowledge and management strategies. Understanding the patient-specific symptoms and carving out an effective treatment likewise is the best way to keep asthma under control.
Osteoporosis - Definition , Evaluation and Management .pdfJim Jacob Roy
Osteoporosis is an increasing cause of morbidity among the elderly.
In this document , a brief outline of osteoporosis is given , including the risk factors of osteoporosis fractures , the indications for testing bone mineral density and the management of osteoporosis
Cell Therapy Expansion and Challenges in Autoimmune DiseaseHealth Advances
There is increasing confidence that cell therapies will soon play a role in the treatment of autoimmune disorders, but the extent of this impact remains to be seen. Early readouts on autologous CAR-Ts in lupus are encouraging, but manufacturing and cost limitations are likely to restrict access to highly refractory patients. Allogeneic CAR-Ts have the potential to broaden access to earlier lines of treatment due to their inherent cost benefits, however they will need to demonstrate comparable or improved efficacy to established modalities.
In addition to infrastructure and capacity constraints, CAR-Ts face a very different risk-benefit dynamic in autoimmune compared to oncology, highlighting the need for tolerable therapies with low adverse event risk. CAR-NK and Treg-based therapies are also being developed in certain autoimmune disorders and may demonstrate favorable safety profiles. Several novel non-cell therapies such as bispecific antibodies, nanobodies, and RNAi drugs, may also offer future alternative competitive solutions with variable value propositions.
Widespread adoption of cell therapies will not only require strong efficacy and safety data, but also adapted pricing and access strategies. At oncology-based price points, CAR-Ts are unlikely to achieve broad market access in autoimmune disorders, with eligible patient populations that are potentially orders of magnitude greater than the number of currently addressable cancer patients. Developers have made strides towards reducing cell therapy COGS while improving manufacturing efficiency, but payors will inevitably restrict access until more sustainable pricing is achieved.
Despite these headwinds, industry leaders and investors remain confident that cell therapies are poised to address significant unmet need in patients suffering from autoimmune disorders. However, the extent of this impact on the treatment landscape remains to be seen, as the industry rapidly approaches an inflection point.
Lecture 6 -- Memory 2015.pptlearning occurs when a stimulus (unconditioned st...AyushGadhvi1
learning occurs when a stimulus (unconditioned stimulus) eliciting a response (unconditioned response) • is paired with another stimulus (conditioned stimulus)
Breast cancer: Post menopausal endocrine therapyDr. Sumit KUMAR
Breast cancer in postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive (HR+) status is a common and complex condition that necessitates a multifaceted approach to management. HR+ breast cancer means that the cancer cells grow in response to hormones such as estrogen and progesterone. This subtype is prevalent among postmenopausal women and typically exhibits a more indolent course compared to other forms of breast cancer, which allows for a variety of treatment options.
Diagnosis and Staging
The diagnosis of HR+ breast cancer begins with clinical evaluation, imaging, and biopsy. Imaging modalities such as mammography, ultrasound, and MRI help in assessing the extent of the disease. Histopathological examination and immunohistochemical staining of the biopsy sample confirm the diagnosis and hormone receptor status by identifying the presence of estrogen receptors (ER) and progesterone receptors (PR) on the tumor cells.
Staging involves determining the size of the tumor (T), the involvement of regional lymph nodes (N), and the presence of distant metastasis (M). The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system is commonly used. Accurate staging is critical as it guides treatment decisions.
Treatment Options
Endocrine Therapy
Endocrine therapy is the cornerstone of treatment for HR+ breast cancer in postmenopausal women. The primary goal is to reduce the levels of estrogen or block its effects on cancer cells. Commonly used agents include:
Selective Estrogen Receptor Modulators (SERMs): Tamoxifen is a SERM that binds to estrogen receptors, blocking estrogen from stimulating breast cancer cells. It is effective but may have side effects such as increased risk of endometrial cancer and thromboembolic events.
Aromatase Inhibitors (AIs): These drugs, including anastrozole, letrozole, and exemestane, lower estrogen levels by inhibiting the aromatase enzyme, which converts androgens to estrogen in peripheral tissues. AIs are generally preferred in postmenopausal women due to their efficacy and safety profile compared to tamoxifen.
Selective Estrogen Receptor Downregulators (SERDs): Fulvestrant is a SERD that degrades estrogen receptors and is used in cases where resistance to other endocrine therapies develops.
Combination Therapies
Combining endocrine therapy with other treatments enhances efficacy. Examples include:
Endocrine Therapy with CDK4/6 Inhibitors: Palbociclib, ribociclib, and abemaciclib are CDK4/6 inhibitors that, when combined with endocrine therapy, significantly improve progression-free survival in advanced HR+ breast cancer.
Endocrine Therapy with mTOR Inhibitors: Everolimus, an mTOR inhibitor, can be added to endocrine therapy for patients who have developed resistance to aromatase inhibitors.
Chemotherapy
Chemotherapy is generally reserved for patients with high-risk features, such as large tumor size, high-grade histology, or extensive lymph node involvement. Regimens often include anthracyclines and taxanes.
5-hydroxytryptamine or 5-HT or Serotonin is a neurotransmitter that serves a range of roles in the human body. It is sometimes referred to as the happy chemical since it promotes overall well-being and happiness.
It is mostly found in the brain, intestines, and blood platelets.
5-HT is utilised to transport messages between nerve cells, is known to be involved in smooth muscle contraction, and adds to overall well-being and pleasure, among other benefits. 5-HT regulates the body's sleep-wake cycles and internal clock by acting as a precursor to melatonin.
It is hypothesised to regulate hunger, emotions, motor, cognitive, and autonomic processes.
DECLARATION OF HELSINKI - History and principlesanaghabharat01
This SlideShare presentation provides a comprehensive overview of the Declaration of Helsinki, a foundational document outlining ethical guidelines for conducting medical research involving human subjects.
- Video recording of this lecture in English language: https://youtu.be/Pt1nA32sdHQ
- Video recording of this lecture in Arabic language: https://youtu.be/uFdc9F0rlP0
- Link to download the book free: https://nephrotube.blogspot.com/p/nephrotube-nephrology-books.html
- Link to NephroTube website: www.NephroTube.com
- Link to NephroTube social media accounts: https://nephrotube.blogspot.com/p/join-nephrotube-on-social-media.html
Kosmoderma Academy, a leading institution in the field of dermatology and aesthetics, offers comprehensive courses in cosmetology and trichology. Our specialized courses on PRP (Hair), DR+Growth Factor, GFC, and Qr678 are designed to equip practitioners with advanced skills and knowledge to excel in hair restoration and growth treatments.
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How long before we see life expectancy falling in some areas?
1. 1
Dorling, D. (2010),
How long before we see
life expectancy falling in
some areas?
Annual DARE lecture,
NHS National Services
Scotland
Faculty of Public Health
Conference, Dunblane,
2. 2
How long before we see life expectancy falling in some
areas?
Danny Dorling
University of Sheffield
DARE lecture, NHS National Services Scotland Faculty of
Public Health Conference, Dunblane, 12th
November 2010
(apologies for the busy slides – lots to say)
Why should we be concerned that falls are possible?
Because expectancy has hardly been rising in some areas.
How will we first know that they are occurring?
When ONS/GRO(S) release data for a district showing a fall
When will we be sure as to the reasons?
Depends: The reasons, or the reasons underlying the reasons?
Where might life expectancy fall first?
That is not so easy to answer, maybe where it is artificially high?
What should we do to stop it?
Don’t do what they do in affluent countries where there are falls
We need not see falls in areas in our lifetimes. Or the first may be this year
I think it is our choice, the key is how well we resist divisive social policies.
3. 3
O ute r
London
Inner
London
Leeds
Birm in gham
Bristol
Brad ford
Sh effield
G la sgow
Cardiff
Live rp ool
HullBo lton
M anc hester
Ed inburg h
New ca stle
DerbyStoke
Dov er
O xf ord
Luton
Leic este r
Not ting ham
Sw in don
R ea ding
Norw ic h
M idd les brough
So uthen d
Su nderla nd
Sw ans ea
Bla ck pool
C am bridg e
Ipsw ic hC ov entry
With Bethan Thomas
I’ve been working on
a new atlas with a
new map
and with
George Davey Smith
we found that by 2007
inequalities in
death rates were
higher than any
time since
1921
See: Thomas, B.,
Dorling, D. and Davey
Smith, G. (2010).
Inequalities in
premature mortality in
Britain: observational
study from 1921 to
2007, BMJ, Friday 23rd
July.
http://www.sasi.group.shef
Here are the
major towns
and cities by
built-up area.
You need to
understand this
map to know
what the next
slide is showing
you.
4. 4
Claimant count change July 09 - July 10 (%)
-1.5 – -1.1
-1.0 – -0.6
-0.5 – -0.1
0.0 – 0.3
0.4 – 0.7
Reduction in main revenue grant allocations 2010-11 (%)
-2.0
-1.7 – -1.0
-0.9 – -0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5 – -0.1
0.0
Budget
cuts to
come.
2010–2011
reduction in
main
revenue
grant
allocations
(%), local
authorities,
England
Recent changes in
unemployment
claimant
geography
This is a
map of the
future of
‘just’
£6 billion
cuts
This is a
map of the
past (09-10).
Not of the
490,000+ one
million (?) to
come
Job
cuts
in
last
year
5. 5
Reasons
behind the
reasons
For what I think are the real
reasons behind the reasons,
New Zealand is an ideal place to
look: See Jane Kelsey’s
explanation of how the country
was used as a natural
experiment for policies later
exported to places such as the
UK in: ‘The New Zealand
Experiment (1997 2nd
ed.):
She says:
“Ultimately, the people of New
Zealand have to decide what
kind of society they wish to live
in, and work together to create it.
In the meantime, other countries,
governments and peoples who
are being told that they too have
no alternative to the corporate
agenda should learn from New
Zealand's tragic mistake.”
http://www.converge.org.nz/pma/apfail.htm
Pearce, J.R. and Dorling, D.
(2010). The Influence of
Selective Migration Patterns
Among Smokers and
Nonsmokers on
Geographical Inequalities in
Health, Annals of the
Association of American
Geographers, First published
on: 18 March 2010.
http://www.sasi.group.shef.ac.uk/publications/
2010/PearceDorling_2010_AnnalsAAG.pdf
Take somewhere a long
way away where they
have asked sensible
questions for a long time
in their censuses, such
as where were you living
five years ago and do
you smoke? (in 1981,
1996 and 2006).
6. 6
Difference
(net net gain in never smoked over still smoking)
1,272 = -1.17% net
Difference
(net increase in never smoked)
3,339
Difference
(net increase in smokers)
2,067
Less……..
Never Smoked in 1981
44,568
Never Smoked:
Lived in Auckland in 1976
Lived Elsewhere in 1981
41,229
Smoked:
Lived in Auckland in 1976
Lived Elsewhere in 1981
34,584
Smoked in 1981
36,651
Males in Auckland in 1981
108,711
(denominator for -1.17%)
Ex-Smokers
Ignored from herein
27,492
Lived outside Auckland in 1976
(and never smoke by 1981)
12,018
Lived Outside NZ in 1976
3,705
Lived outside Auckland in 1976
(and smoked in 1981)
10,431
Lived Outside NZ in 1976
3,264
Pure migrant
contribution
1,587
(28% immigration)
Thus this despite 315
Net new male smokers in Auckland
But this is just the men, in one
area, in one of three time periods
with smoking data (the 1981,
1996 and 2006 NZ censuses).
So repeat…. 2 x 3 x 21 times
7. 7
Superficial
Reasons
Auckland
is the white dot
amongst the 21
district health
boards of NZ
shown here.
Areas that loose
smokers tend to
have higher life
expectancy.
This is not
surprising.
But if the
migration patterns
tighten then
expectancies
diverge, as in NZ.
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2%
Smoking migration balance (male) as a proportion of the
total population 1976-81
Malelifeexpectancy(2001)
8. 8
Underlying reasons – increased social polarisation by area over time.
Take the x axis of the last diagram and compare it over the three time periods
for which we have data on smoking for how more closely net-smoker-migration
patterns now correlate over time. The answer is more strongly in recent years:
Internal + immigration
smoking migration
balance 1976-1981
verses 1991-96
Internal + immigration
smoking migration
balance 1991-96
verses 2001-06
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
-2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
-10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0%
9. 9
Back to the UK: when was it last as bad – today the gap between the
very worse and best-off districts for men and women averaged is ‘around’ 12.4 years
when men and women’s experiences are combined – when was it last so wide?
• Men and women today have a combined averaged life expectancy of 74.3 in
Glasgow as compared to 88.7 in the Royal Borough of Kensington and
Chelsea. Therefore the gap between an affluent enclave of London and one
of the most economically run down of cities in Western Europe is now
twelve years, 17% additional years of life, whereas in the 1880s an extra ten
years on top of an expectancy of thirty six was an additional 28% (2007-
2009 data). Over the very long period we cannot compare relative indexes
of inequality – but the extreme gap has tended to follow these recently.
• We have to go back to the1880s to find greater gaps than those found
today. The lowest life expectancy recorded in the country then was just
thirty-six years in Liverpool. In Bristol it was then ten years higher. [Szreter, S.
and Mooney, G., 1998, Urbanization, mortality, and the standard of living debate: new estimates
of the expectation of life at birth in nineteenth-century British cities, Economic History Review, 51,
1, 84-112 (table 1). In Liverpool registration district itself, life expectancy in the 1880s was only
29 years of life, some 19 years lower than the 48 years recorded then in the affluent Clifton
district of Bristol (ibid, table 2). In Glasgow in earlier years similarly low rates as in Liverpool were
recorded, as low as age 27 around 1840 (ibid, table 5). Infant mortality was key to determining
these low overall ages, dragging average life expectancies down as so many died in that first
year. Manchester’s life expectancy for 1801 to 1850 was the lowest I have ever seen, calculated
at 25.3 years, affecting a population of 235,000 people in 1841, Ibid: Szreter and Mooney (table
3).]
10. 10
"1931"
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
Inequalities in health & wealth
• The age-sex standardized mortality
ratios for those under 65 can be
compared by area back to the situation
around 1920 and are found to have
reached a peak then and in the later
1930s which is only being exceeded
today in terms of how much worse off
the chances of those in the areas with
poorest health are compared to the
average and how much better-off the
best-off tenth are.
• These geographical changes in
inequalities in health have tracked
social changes in inequalities in
incomes very closely over the period
1918-2005 except for during the 1930s
when inequalities in income fell but
inequalities in health rose as jobs went.
The very rich then became poorer, but
the effect took another decade to be
transferred to health. Each square here
is the year of a general election.
Inequality, in survival chances
to age 65 in Britain, 1918-2005+ [BMJ]
Income inequality (X axis) verses Health
inequalities (Y axis) in Britain, 1918-2005
11. 11
Just over half of the reduction in income
inequalities measured from 1918 to
1978 occurred before World War Two.
Since 1978 all that has now been
reversed. The very latest city bonuses
will have taken us back to the early
1920s gilded age maxima inequality.
But back then life expectancy in an area
fell when there were pit disasters,
otherwise there were mostly differential
improvements everywhere.
Similarly, political polarisation has fallen
from 1918 until October 1974 and has
then risen ever since, including in 2010.
Only a ‘coupon’ election in 2015 could
emulate 1918. (Sources: Dorling, D.,
2010, Injustice, why social inequalities
persists, Bristol: Policy Press).
Income Inequality, share
held by richest 1%, 1918-2005+
Electoral Inequality, Segregation Index
of Tory voters, 1918-2005+
Sources: ‘Injustice’ Chapter 5
+ New Statesman (2010)
Polarisation in politics and income
12. 12
When inequalities are high victims are blamed
We reduced inequalities in the past by blaming the system, not victim.
In the future we should expect to continue to see people exercising lifestyle
choices that are harmful, such as going into businesses similar to
advertising cigarettes and finding it easier to target children living in poorer
areas by putting up hoardings just outside the school exclusion zone; or
exercising the lifestyle choice to sell cheap alcohol, the worst of our drugs.
However, I think we will start to curtail such damaging profiteering. People
will become less susceptible to the argument of blaming individuals for the
behaviour that others try to sell them, of seeing differences in smoking,
drinking and diet across the country as some sign of a map of personal
weakness…. rather than these being the target marketing areas of the
wickedly unscrupulous.
13. 13
So, when should we expect to see life expectancy fall in an area?
All the trends appear to be pointing towards that eventuality
“Big variation in life expectancy”
When last year’s “latest figures” were released on 21 October 2009 at 9:30
am, for the first time in many years the BBC chose not to report the rise.
Instead it lead with “Swine flu vaccination under way” and then “Big variation in
life expectancy ”. The ONS press release was titled “Life expectancy continues
to rise”.
In fact, what was reported in the figures that October, just over a year ago, was
an acceleration in recorded health inequalities, and a fall in life expectancy for
men in Glasgow, but not one that was “significant”.
The story was illustrated with the image of a baby.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8317986.stm
14. 14
“Inequalities in health – latest
figures by area (district gap)”
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Difference between best
and worst-off districts by
life expectancy (years):
Females
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Difference between best
and worst-off districts by
life expectancy (years):
Males
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Difference between best
and worst-off districts by
life expectancy (years):
People
Gap in years
between the
average life
expectancy in the
worse-off district
of Britain and the
best-off, all,
women, men,
Source: ONS
various years
Only recorded ‘fall’
is in Glasgow of 0.1
years – within
confidence limits
(although do not
have too much
confidence in
those!)
12.45 years
13.6 years for men
What the BBC should have said is:
“Acceleration in the growth of income inequalities across the UK”
11.5 years for women
15. 15
19 October 2010: ONS release – which should have said: “rapid
deceleration in growth of health inequalities during 2009”
Some 364 days later – a day before the Comprehensive
Spending Review the next set of data is released with
the following interpretation from ONS:
“Life expectancy at birth
Life expectancy results for 2007–09 showed a similar
geographic pattern to previous years, with inequalities
persisting across the UK. The South East, South West
and East of England continued to have the highest life
expectancies at birth”
Source: Life expectancy at birth and at age 65 by local
areas in the United Kingdom, 2007–09;
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/liex1010.pdf
16. 16
Daily Mail headline of October 20 – was it wrong?
“The gap that cheats Scots out of 13 years; life
expectancy shorter north of the Border”
• Daily Mail (London, England), The, Oct 20, 2010
• Byline: Alan Roden Scottish Political Reporter
“THE gap between life expectancy in parts of the West of Scotland and South-
East England has widened to more than 13 years, according to 'damning'
new figures. A baby boy born today in Glasgow will, on average, live for 71.1
years, compared to 84.4 years in London's Kensington and Chelsea.”
However, this is 13.3 years (84.4-71.1) but the gap for men had been 13.6
years a year earlier (84.3-70.7). So was the gap growing or shrinking?
17. 17
Initially it did appear as if the gap narrowed:
When comparing 2006-2008 with 2007-2009
For the extreme areas, for men then women, respectively, life expectancy rose
from 70.7 to 71.1, 77.2 to 77.5, in Glasgow and from 84.3 to 84.4, and 88.8
to 89.0 in Kensington & Chelsea. We will not know for at least a year
whether this change at the extremes is indicative of wider trends, or remains
(because the data is not disseminated fast). (Glasgow men in 2005-6: 70.8)
For women the gap reduces from 11.6 to 11.5 years.
For men the gap reduces from 13.6 to 13.3
ONS, 2009, Life expectancy at birth and at age 65 by local areas in the United
Kingdom, 2006-08, released 21 October 2009, London: Office of National
Statistics. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/liex1009.pdf.
ONS, 2010, Life expectancy at birth and at age 65 by local areas in the United
Kingdom, 2007-09, realsed 19 October 2010 London: Office of National
Statistics: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/liex1009.pdf
18. 18
But then there is a ‘1984’ style footnote in the latest figures
about past statistics simultaneously being revised :
“Figures for 2000-02 to 2006-08 have been updated due to revisions in the
England and Wales mid-year population estimates for 2002 to 2008
(published by ONS in May 2010)”
Note – no revisions in Scotland – in Glasgow the improvements stands
• http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=8841
So: For the extreme areas, for men then women, respectively, life expectancy
rose from 70.7 to 71.1, 77.2 to 77.5, in Glasgow and
from 84.1(was .3) to 84.4, and 88.7 (was .8) to 89.0 in Kensington & Chelsea.
For men still a drop from 13.4 to 13.3 – so the Daily Mail was wrong
For women the gap remains at 11.5 years at both periods.
For both sexes simply combined the gap falls from 12.45 to 12.40 years….
19. 19
There were no headlines claiming: “Gordon’s last year his best!”
The reason was partly the complexity of revisions, but also the sense of failure.
“ Duffy: – but all these eastern Europeans coming in, where are they flocking from?
Brown: A million people come in from Europe, but a million British people have
gone into Europe, you do know there’s a lot of British people staying in Europe as well.
So education, health and helping people, that’s what I’m about.” The Times, 28/4/2010.
The education gap was found earlier in the year to have closed significantly, and, on
the day before the Comprehensive Spending Review came the first ever evidence of
the geographical health gap closing by a fraction.
None of that mattered because Brown did not say: “Eastern Europe, dear Lady”.
Step back and look at non-over lapping time periods 2004-2006 to 2007-2009:
For the extreme areas, for men then women, respectively, life expectancy rose
from 70.5 to 71.1, 77.0 to 77.5, in Glasgow and from 83.1* to 84.4, and
87.2* to 89.0 in Kensington & Chelsea. The gap grows from 11.4 to 12.4
years, the acceleration is removed.
(* now revised to 83.0 and 87.1 apparently so 11.5 to 12.4)
20. 20
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84
What do we see overall rather than just at the extremes?
Life expectancy in years by district, all UK 2004-2006 (x axis) and change to
2007-2009 (y axis) using data from just before the very latest revisions
Inequalities were slowly rising, although we now
think that may have ended, at least for a moment,
in 2009. It does look as if a hiatus had been reached.
21. 21
However, for men – here are the most significant changes
2004-6 to 2007-2009:
Merthyr Tydfil 74.6 (73.7-75.5) was 75.5 (-0.9)
(But, revised down in earlier years to 75.4)
and rises of at least 1.9 years above LCL in:
Westminster 83.4 (82.8-83.9) was 80.2 (+3.2)
South Cambs. 81.6 (81.1-82.2) was 79.2*
(+2.4)
Harrow 81.2 (80.8-81.7) was 78.9 (now 79) (+2.3)
(* now 79.4)
22. 22
For women – changes in the same areas which suggests that
the fall is not across the board, but in London the rises were:
Merthyr Tydfil 79.3 (78.4-80.3) was 79.1 (+0.2)
So an improvement where men fell.
And, in comparison to the men:
Westminster 86.5 (86.0-87.0) was 84.0 (+2.5)
South Cambs. 84.5 (84.0-85.0) was 84.2 (+0.3)
Harrow 84.6 (84.1-85.0) was 83.1 (+1.5)
(all 2004-2006 original to 2007-2009)
23. 23
Then came the spending review
October 20th
2010 – we were told how
savings would be made:
• One of the first announcements
was that new tenants of council
and other social housing will now
have to pay at least 80 percent of
market prices in rent. In one
stroke millions of low paid families
are to be excluded from living in
hundreds of towns, cities and
villages where they no longer earn
enough to “deserve” to be.
• There are many threats being
made to have to take any job or be
made to “volunteer” for no pay.
• Housing benefit will not be paid for
people under the age of 35 who
live alone—this previously applied
only to those under 25.
• There would be a 10 percent cut in
council tax benefit for those who
cannot afford to live in certain
areas.
• The immediate question asked
was: Are the few remaining people
living on modest incomes near
affluent suburbs or in economically
successful towns and villages to
be cleansed away?
24. 24
It could be the greatest threat to health inequalities
• The best-off fifth of society will
lose just 1 percent of their
entitlements to public services and
spending, the lowest losses of any
group.
• A million people currently on
employment and support
allowance due to ill health will
each lose £2,000 a year if they
cannot find a job.
• With the state pension age rising
rapidly to 66 years, only those with
private provision can now retire at
the normal age. Public sector
pensioners will have £1.8 billion
removed from them by 2014-15.
Pension credits will be frozen for
three years.
• No family on benefits is to receive
more than the income of an
average family in work, no matter
what the circumstances of their
children. If you are poor—or are
made poor when you lose your job
or have a pay cut forced on you—
and have three or more children,
you may need to leave your town
for a new life in a cheaper area,
away from where the remaining
well paid work is.
• People with worse health will have
to move to poorer areas.
• This is a recipe to increase
inequalities between areas as fast
as possible. I think it makes
everyone worse off, so is in the
saddest sense ‘fair’, but only in its
likely stupidity of outcome.
25. 25
Conclusion – keep asking
why are 16 or 20 countries better?
Everyone is worse off because there
is less social solidality, more fear:
• The latest UN report lists those
European countries currently
having a higher life expectancy
than the UK as: Iceland (almost 82
years), Switzerland, Italy, France
(81 years), Sweden, Spain,
Norway, Austria (to almost 80
years), the Netherlands, Germany,
Ireland, Malta, Cyprus, Finland,
Belgium and Luxembourg. People
also live for longer than in Britain
in Australia, Canada and New
Zealand (and especially Japan),
but not in the United States (where
comparable life expectancy is only
79.1 years)
• People do live slightly shorter lives now
in Greece (but not by 2010 EU data),
Portugal (more economically unequal
than the UK), Denmark (where smoking
is still very common) and in Slovenia
(78.2 years). All these figures are from
Table H of the most recent UNDP
human development report (2009) and
purport to be for around the year 2007.
• Life expectancy is up in the UK, but
increased economic inequality here
would be expected to move our rank
position below one of these four
countries next, to slip from 20th
place to
21st
or 22nd
out of 25. If that happens
then there will be falls in life expectancy
in some areas.
• … we have just moved below Greece,
and the cuts there are far more
equitable than here… (salaries cut
rather than jobs and mostly benefits
going…)
Of the richest 25 nations in the world
the UK is the 4th
most unequal by income
inequality (90:10 ratio UNDP figures).
Editor's Notes
Only Sky reported the rise: http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Life-Expectancy-Inequality-Persists-Across-The-UK-New-ONS-Figures-Reveal/Article/200910315410543