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The Silver Tsunami: Are We Prepared for a Senior Housing Population Boom in Rural America
The document provides a detailed demographic analysis of rural seniors in the United States, highlighting trends in population growth and age distribution from 1900 to projections for 2050. It emphasizes the higher prevalence of seniors in rural areas compared to urban settings, underscores issues of poverty and housing affordability, and notes the lack of racial diversity among rural senior populations. Key data points include income levels, household types, and transportation challenges faced by rural seniors.
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The Silver Tsunami: Are We Prepared for a Senior Housing Population Boom in Rural America
- 1. A DEMOGRAPHIC SNAPSHOTOF RURAL SENIORS AND THEIR HOMES Housing Assistance Council AGING IN RURAL AMERICA 0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 90,000,000 100,000,000 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 PopulationAge65andOver
- 2. RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 1900 1910 19201930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 PercentAge65andOver U.S. Senior Population 1900 – 2050* THE WAVE IS COMING U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce. Projections of the Population by Age and Sex for the United States: 2010 to 2050. *population projection
- 3. RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES 0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 90,000,000 100,000,000 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 1900 1910 19201930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 PercentAge65andOverU.S. Senior Population 1900 – 2050* THE WAVE IS COMING U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce. Projections of the Population by Age and Sex for the United States: 2010 to 2050. *population projection
- 4. 4 Rural & SmallTown Tracts RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES
- 5. THE DEMOGRAPHICS OFAGING IN RURAL AMERICA
- 6. 37 40 35.5 36 36.5 37 37.5 38 38.5 39 39.5 40 40.5 U.S. Rural &Small Town MedianAge Median Age by Location, 2010 6 RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES RURAL AMERICA IS OLDER THAN THE NATION AS A WHOLE HAC Tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census of Population and Housing.
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- 8. 13.0% 15.7% 12.9% 11.5% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% U.S. Rural &Small Town Suburban & Exurban Urban PercentofthePopulation Population Age 65 or Over, 2010 8 RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES HAC Tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census of Population and Housing. SENIORS ARE ALSO MORE PREVELANT IN RURAL AREAS
- 9. 9 Rural and Small Town, 21.0% Suburban and Exurban,48.0 % Urban, 30.9% Total Population by Residence, 2010 Rural and Small Town, 25.1% Suburban and Exurban, 47.4 % Urban, 27.4% Senior Population by Residence, 2010 RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES OVER ONE-QUARTER OF SENIORS LIVE IN RURAL AMERICA
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- 11. 11 RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES Counties % . Changein Senior Population -6.1 - -0.8 -0.7 - -0.5 -0.4 - 0.0 0.1 - 3.9 4.0 - 16.0
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- 14. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% U.S. Rural &Small Town Age of Senior Population, 2010 age 85 and over age 75-84 age 65-74 age 60-64 (near senior) 14 RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES SENIORS ARE NOT A MONOLITHIC GROUP HAC Tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census of Population and Housing.
- 15. RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOUSING 0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 90,000,000 100,000,000 1900 1910 19201930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Population Senior Population by Age Group, 1900 – 2050* 64 to 74 75 to 84 85 plus AND LIFE EXPECTANCIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce. Projections of the Population by Age and Sex for the United States: 2010 to 2050. *population projection
- 16. 16 RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES 5 4 32 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Under 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 Plus Percent AgeCategory Rural & Small Town Population by Age and Gender, 2010 Percent Female Percent Male
- 17. 17 RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES 5 4 32 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Under 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 Plus Percent AgeCategory Rural & Small Town Population by Age and Gender, 2010 Percent Female Percent Male HAC Tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census of Population and Housing.
- 18. 18 RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES 5 4 32 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Under 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 Plus Percent AgeCategory Rural & Small Town Population by Age and Gender, 2010 Percent Female Percent Male HAC Tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census of Population and Housing.
- 19. 19 RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES 5 4 32 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Under 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 Plus Percent AgeCategory Rural & Small Town Population by Age and Gender, 2010 Percent Female Percent Male HAC Tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census of Population and Housing.
- 20. 20 RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES Produced by theHousing Assistance Council Washington, DC Source: HAC Tabulations of Census Bureau Data Population Loss 1980-2010 Legend Population Loss 1980-2010 states
- 21. United States, PopulationAge 65 and Over White not Hispanic, 80.7% Minority, 19.3% Race & Ethnicity, 2010 Rural & Small Town, Population Age 65 and Over White not Hispanic, 89.0% Minority, 11.0% Race & Ethnicity, 2010 RACE& ETHNICITY 21 RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES RURAL SENIORS ARE NOT AS RACIALLY DIVERSE AS THEIR URBAN & SUBURBAN COUNTERPARTS
- 22. 22 RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES Produced by theHousing Assistance Council Washington, DC Source: HAC Tabulations of 2005-2009 Ameican Community Survey Minority Population Age 65 and Over, 2010 Legend Elderly African American >33.3% Elderly Asian > 33.3% Elderly Hispanic > 33.3% Elderly Native American > 33.3% states
- 23. SELECTED ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS Photocourtesy of FAHE
- 24. $51,914 $36,064 $28,297 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 U.S. U.S. SeniorsRural & Small Town Seniors MedianIncome Median Income by Senior Status and Residence, 2009 24 RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES MANY SENIORS HAVE VERY LOW INCOMES HAC Tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau 2006-2010 American Community Survey.
- 25. 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 PercentinPoverty Poverty By Age,1966-2010 Poverty Rate, All Ages Poverty Rate, Age 65 and Over RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES SIGNIFICANT GAINS HAVE BEEN MADE TO REDUCE POVERTY AMONG SENIORS HAC Tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau 2006-2010 American Community Survey.
- 26. 9.8% 11.4% 7.2% 8.2% 11.8% 14.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% U.S. Rural &Small Town PercentinPoverty Senior Poverty By Residence & Gender, 2010 All Elderly Elderly Male Elderly Female 26 RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES POVERTY RATES ARE STILL HIGHER AMONG RURAL SENIORS HAC Tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau 2006-2010 American Community Survey.
- 27. 27 RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES Legend Counties Percent Senior Poverty 0.0- 8.5 8.6 - 12.9 13.0 - 18.6 18.7 - 27.5 27.6 - 61.0 Poverty, Persons Age 65 and Over, 2010
- 28. SELECTED HOUSING ANDHOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS Photo by Ann Olson
- 29. 29 Owner Occupied Housing Renter Occupied Single Family Housing Renter Occupied Multifamily Housing Housing With Services Assisted Living Long Term Care Facility SENIORHOUSING CONTINUUM RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES Less Dependent More Dependent A HEALTHY RANGE OF HOUSING OPTIONS IS VITAL FOR SENIORS’ WELL BEING
- 30. 30 Owner Occupied Housing Long Term Care Facility SENIOR HOUSING CONTINUUM RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES LessDependent More Dependent SENIOR HOUSIG OPTIONS ARE LIMITED IN MANY RURAL COMMUNITIES
- 31. 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% U.S. Rural &Small Town PercentElderlyOccupiedHomes Occupied Housing Units – Householder Age 65 or Older, 2010 Senior-Occupied Homeowners Senior-Occupied Renters 31 RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES HAC Tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau 2006-2010 American Community Survey.
- 32. HO USI NG TE NU RE 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% U.S. U.S. SeniorRural & Small Town Senior ElderlyOccupiedHousingUnits Housing Tenure, Householder Age 65 or Older, 2009 Renter Occupied Owner-Occupied 32 RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES MOST RURAL SENIORS OWN THEIR HOMES HAC Tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau 2006-2010 American Community Survey.
- 33. HO USI NG TE NU RE 33 RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 15 to 3435 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 74 75 + HomeownershipRate Age Group Rural & Small Town Homeownership by Age and Mortgage Status, 2010 With a Mortgage Without a Mortgage AS RURAL HOMEOWNERS AGE THEY HAVE LESS MORTGAGE DEBT HAC Tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau 2006-2010 American Community Survey.
- 34. 34 RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES Manufactured Homes, 2010 Legend Counties PercentManufactured Home 0.0 - 6.0 6.1 - 12.7 12.8 - 20.2 20.3 - 29.6 29.7 - 56.1 Manufactured Homes as a Percent of All Occupied Housing Units
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- 36. Two or More Persons,73.4% One Person, 26.6% Household Size, Rural & Small Town, 2009 Two or More Persons, 55.4% One Person, 44.6% Household Size, Rural & Small Town, Householder Age 65 or Over, 2009 36 RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES MANY RURAL SENIORS LIVE ALONE HAC Tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau 2006-2010 American Community Survey.
- 37. HOU SING AFF ORD ABILI TY FOR OLD ER HO MEO WNE RS 28.3% 60.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Owners Renters PercentCostBurdened Housing CostBurden, Householders Age 65 and Over by Tenure, 2010 37 RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IS AN INCREASNG PROBLEM FOR MANY RURAL SENIORS HAC Tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau 2006-2010 American Community Survey.
- 38. VE HIC LE AV AIL ABI LIT Y 8.9% 12.5% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% All Households SeniorHouseholds PercentofHouseholdsWithNoVehicle Households No Vehicle Available, 2010 No Vehicle Available 38 RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES TRANSPORATION IS A CHALLENGE IN MANY RURAL COMMUNITIES HAC Tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau 2006-2010 American Community Survey.
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- 41. SAVE THE DATE! OnJune 19, at 3:00 ET, HAC will host a webinar Aging in Place: Home Repair for Rural Seniors. Topics will include the using the USDA Section 504 grant program and leveraging weatherization dollars for senior home repair. For information, visit www.ruralhome.org or contact Janice Clark at Janice@ruralhome.org. RURALSENIORSANDTHEIRHOMES
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Editor's Notes
- #8 This a geographic distribution of the median age by county in 2010. in this map all counties with a media age above the national median are shaded in blue and the medium shade of blue indicates a median age of 40 or higher which is the rural rate and the darker blue areas have a media age of 45 or higher.
- #9 Not only are median ages higher, but seniors make up a larger percentage of the population in rural areas. There are more than 40 million people over the age of 65 in the United States. In rural and small town areas there are more than 10 million seniors. Persons over the age of 65 comprise approximately 16 percent of rural and small town population, nearly 3 percentage points above the national rate.
- #10 To give another perspective, approximately one fifth of the U.S. population live in rural and small town areas, but over one quarter of the nation’s .seniors reside in rural communities.
- #11 Again this is a geographic representation of the senior population by county. Blue counties are those with a rate of seniors higher than the national rate. The darkest blue counties are those with more than 20 percent of their population age 65 and over. You’ll again notice some regional clusters or patterns among the concentration of seniors especially in the Midwestern plains states and in portions of The Appalachians and Florida. Another way to think about this is that for these counties in blue it already 2050. In this respect rural America serves as a harbinger of things to come for the entire nation
- #35 Manufactured homes are an important source of housing for millions of Americans, especially those with lower incomes and in rural areas. There are approximately 7 million occupied manufactured homes in the U.S., comprising about 7 percent of the nation’s housing stock. More than half of all manufactured homes are located in rural areas around the country. Also, more than half of all manufactured homes are located in Southeastern states. Manufactured homes are less prevalent among rural households over the age of 65 than among rural seniors. This may be largely attributable to the fact that mobile homes are a relatively recent housing option that arose after many current seniors were in the purchasing stage of their housing life cycle. Nevertheless, the proportion of rural senior households residing in mobile homes is double that of their suburban and urban counterparts, and over half of all rural seniors in mobile homes live in the South.The proportion of rural seniors living in mobile homes is likely to increase in the coming decades, as rural baby boomers currently occupy a large portion of the nation’s manufactured homes in rural areas. In fact, this may be a large and unforeseen issues that will develop in the coming decades. There is disagreement on the lifespan of manufactured homes, but many baby boomers are now living in older manufactured homes that they may have purchased in the 1970s and 80s and are nearing the end of their usefulness. With reduced investment value, poor accessibility standards and difficulty in repair and rehabilitating older manufactured homes may leave many rural seniors with few options as they age in this type of housing.
- #36 Land-lease manufactured home communities, often referred to as “mobile home” or “trailer” parks, are home to over 2.3 million households nationally. Contrary to popular perception, most manufactured homes are not located in park or community settings. Still, the Housing Assistance Council estimates that there are more than 50,000 manufactured home communities in the United States. Households who reside in park settings have lower incomes and are more likely to be elderly than their counterparts in scattered site manufactured homes. In fact a number of these communities are restricted to older residents In manufactured home communities, usually one individual or entity owns the land, while residents own their homes and rent the land on which their homes sit. In this land tenure arrangement, residents are frequently both owners and renters, and are often caught in a “gray area” of legal protection and recourse. Several states and jurisdictions have enacted special protections for residents of manufactured housing communities, but these vary widely. According to a recent analysis by AARP, at least 15 states have no manufactured home park statutes at all. AARP. Manufactured Housing Community Tenants: Shifting the Balance of Power. Washington DC: 2004. Housing Assistance Council. “Manufactured Home Geography Project.” Washington, D.C.: Housing Assistance Council, 2010. Housing Assistance Council. Moving Home: Manufactured Housing in Rural America. Washington, D.C.: Housing Assistance Council, 2005.