Launch of ILC-UK Factpack, Ageing, longevity and demographic change, Supported by Legal & General
his important briefing event, for journalists and senior policy-makers and opinion formers, set out the latest evidence on longevity and explore the extent to which government and business (financial services industry) is responding to the challenges. We will consider the extent to which longevity is influencing government and business decisions and how media and policy-makers can help to ensure that important longevity issues are taken into account.
For example, the Government has set out plans to increase the state pension age to 66 years from 2018, and 67 years from 2026. They have also announced plans to automatically link state pension age with increased longevity.
Whilst the driver of change has partly been the need for Government to cut spending and make fiscal savings, there is also a recognition that people will be spending an increasing proportion of their lives in retirement. Although we may be living longer on average, many are likely to be doing so in poor health. In parts of the country life expectancy is much lower than the UK average.
In addition, on 26th June the Government will announce its latest spending review. The impact of future spending demands of an ageing society will undoubtedly influence this review so the event will consider the extent to which Government’s current spending priorities have adequately taken into account long term demographic change and how the private sector can contribute.
The event took place just after the launch of the latest Office of Budget Responsibility fiscal sustainability report which set out the long term impact of ageing on fiscal sustainability. In its 2012 report, the OBR said; “The public finances are likely to come under pressure over the longer term, primarily as a result of an ageing population.”
ILC-UK launched a new factpack, Ageing, longevity and demographic change, which has been produced with the support of Legal & General. The factpack will help those with an interest in population ageing and longevity to quickly access key, relevant statistics.
Speakers: Baroness Sally Greengross, ILC-UK; Kerrigan Procter, Legal & General; Joseph Lu, Legal & General; Professor Les Mayhew, Cass Business School; Professor Michael Murphy, London School of Economics; Tim Gosden, Legal & General; David Sinclair, ILC-UK.
This report, containing new research by Professor Les Mayhew reveals that the life expectancy gap between the richest and poorest has begun to increase. The research reveals that the richest 5% of men are living an average of 96.2 years, which is 34.2 years longer than the poorest 10% of men. The gap is 1.7 years wider than in 1993.
There are likely to be significant unintended consequences of further increases to State Pension Age in 2028. Increasing State Pension Age up to levels where disability rates are higher, raises concerns about transferring spending from the State Pension to disability or other working age benefits. Increasing the State Pension Age further might also impact on the supply of carers. And will employers be prepared for further increases in the State Pension Age?
Public policy is beginning to recognise the challenges ahead. The DWP Select Committee are currently conducting an Inquiry into “early drawing of the state pension”. Labour have proposed a flexible state pension age so manual workers can retire earlier than other workers. Are there other, potentially more radical solutions to the inequalities challenge?
Are we ready to make the UK the best country to grow old in?
One year ago, the House of Lords Committee on Public Services and Demographic Change produced a hard-hitting report which argued that the Government and society was “woefully underprepared” for a rapidly ageing population.
On the first anniversary of the ‘Ready for Ageing?’ report, we are in the unenviable position that sees the United Kingdom ranked unlucky number 13 in a global index of the best countries in the world to grow old in. The principal recommendations in the ‘Ready for Ageing?’ report have not yet been properly addressed or acted on.
In his October 2013 speech on ‘The Forgotten Million’, Secretary of State for Health, Jeremy Hunt MP, set down a challenge that the UK should in fact aspire to be best country to grow old in, but the question remains: why are our public services so poorly prepared for major demographic change, and what as a society can we do to ensure future generations of older people thrive in later life?
Lord Filkin, Chair of the Committee on Public Services and Demographic Change, hosted a House of Lords breakfast debate looking forward to 2030, a date by which there will be 50% more people aged 65 and over in England and a doubling in the numbers of people aged 85 and over. As a society, we need to prepare for the next 15 years right now and certainly in the next Parliament.
At this event, Independent Age and ILC-UK, supported by members of the Ready for Ageing Alliance, launched 2030 Vision: Making the UK the best country to grow old in, which will look to the long term and consider what politicians and policy makers need to now, both in preparation for next year’s General Election, and between 2015 and 2020, to prepare for the long term opportunities and challenges ahead.
During the debate, we invited contributions on the economic and societal implications of population ageing and the major policy decisions all the main parties face to ready the UK and its public services for dramatic population ageing.
It’s clear that our political, social and cultural approach towards old age today is already hopelessly out of date, so this event will provide Parliamentarians and stakeholders from across civil society with an opportunity to mark the first anniversary of the House of Lords’ Committee report on demographic change and look ahead, so as a society we can seize the opportunities presented by an ageing population.
Overcoming Inequalities: Addressing barriers to extending working livesILC- UK
Socio-economic inequalities continue to present challenges to the Government’s Fuller Working Lives programme, and research conducted by the ILC-UK in 2015 found that although 1.1 million people are currently working beyond state pension age, 1 million people aged 50-64 have been forced out of work through a combination of redundancy, ill health or early retirement.
This one day conference, hosted by the ILC-UK and research teams from renEWL and the Uncertain Futures consortium allowed policy makers, business leaders, civil society organisations and academics to engage with new research findings on the socio-economic inequalities preventing some sections of the population from achieving longer, fuller working lives. The conference examined the current barriers to extending working lives: health inequalities, work place practice, and the policy barriers that Government, business and civil society can work collectively to address.
Speakers included:
John Cridland, Independent Reviewer of the State Pension Age
- Professor David Armstrong, Department of Primary Care and Public Health Sciences, King's College London
- Professor Jenny Head, Professor of Medical and Social Statistics, UCL
- Prof. Sarah Vickerstaff, Professor of Work and Employment, University of Kent
- Dr Mai Stafford, renEWL
- Dr Charlotte Clark, Uncertain Futures Research Consortium
- Peter Kelly, Senior Psychologist, Health and Safety Executive
- Nicola Lee, Employment Relations Adviser, RCN
- Dr Ewan Carr, renEWL
- Professor Wendy Loretto, Uncertain Futures Research Consortium
- Patrick Thomson, Senior Programme Manager, Centre for Ageing Better
- Denise Keating, CEO, Employers Network for Equality and Inclusion
- Yvonne Sonsino, Innovation Leader, Mercer Europe and Pacific
- Dr Emily Murray, renEWL
- Professor Chris Phillipson, Uncertain Futures Research Consortium
- Russell Taylor, DWP Fuller Working Lives Team
- Caroline Abrahams, Charity Director, Age UK
- Professor Stephen Stansfeld, renEWL
- Dr Joanne Crawford, Uncertain Futures Research Consortium
- Rachael Saunders, Business in the Community
During 2014, ILC-UK, supported by specialist insurance company, Partnership Assurance Group plc (Partnership), is undertaking a series of events to explore the relationship between our changing demography and public policy.
The second event in the series will explore how much we really know about life expectancy at the highest ages. How many of us are living to 90 and beyond? Why have estimates of life expectancy required revision? What does this tell us about increasing longevity? And what does this trend mean for public policy and long-term population planning?
Demographic change means that more people will live past the point where they require care. As the increase in life expectancy looks set to continue, we need to develop enterprising and innovative ways to help people save and plan for this eventuality and bring new money into the care system. If people are to save for their future, especially people who are on lower incomes or are less wealthy, it is essential that they have opportunities to do so in a way that is simple, attractive, engaging, and safe, and which provides them with more choice about the care and support they would like. Equally, they must not be penalised for having done so through means tested support. This is what Personal Care Savings Bonds are intended to be all about.
Public service and demographic change: an ILC-UK/Actuarial Profession joint d...ILC- UK
Full details of the event are available here: http://www.ilcuk.org.uk/index.php/events/ilc_uk_and_the_actuarial_profession_debate_public_service_and_demographic_c
The live blog for this event is available here: http://blog.ilcuk.org.uk/2013/04/23/live-blog-public-service-and-demographic-change/
Maximising the potential of the UK's ageing population. Lessons from Asia and...ILC- UK
On Wednesday, 20th April 2016, the International Longevity Centre - UK and the Global Aging Institute hosted a roundtable discussion in the House of Lords on how the UK can maximise the potential of its ageing population, supported by Prudential Plc.
The discussion focused on a range of topics emerging from the Global Aging Institute's research in East Asia, including how different Asian countries address productivity challenges, changing dependency ratios, gender disparities and the changing nature of intergenerational dependence.
These topics were also considered in relation to ageing societies across Europe, at a roundtable discussion with European Commissioners held in Brussels on Thursday, 21st April 2016.
This report, containing new research by Professor Les Mayhew reveals that the life expectancy gap between the richest and poorest has begun to increase. The research reveals that the richest 5% of men are living an average of 96.2 years, which is 34.2 years longer than the poorest 10% of men. The gap is 1.7 years wider than in 1993.
There are likely to be significant unintended consequences of further increases to State Pension Age in 2028. Increasing State Pension Age up to levels where disability rates are higher, raises concerns about transferring spending from the State Pension to disability or other working age benefits. Increasing the State Pension Age further might also impact on the supply of carers. And will employers be prepared for further increases in the State Pension Age?
Public policy is beginning to recognise the challenges ahead. The DWP Select Committee are currently conducting an Inquiry into “early drawing of the state pension”. Labour have proposed a flexible state pension age so manual workers can retire earlier than other workers. Are there other, potentially more radical solutions to the inequalities challenge?
Are we ready to make the UK the best country to grow old in?
One year ago, the House of Lords Committee on Public Services and Demographic Change produced a hard-hitting report which argued that the Government and society was “woefully underprepared” for a rapidly ageing population.
On the first anniversary of the ‘Ready for Ageing?’ report, we are in the unenviable position that sees the United Kingdom ranked unlucky number 13 in a global index of the best countries in the world to grow old in. The principal recommendations in the ‘Ready for Ageing?’ report have not yet been properly addressed or acted on.
In his October 2013 speech on ‘The Forgotten Million’, Secretary of State for Health, Jeremy Hunt MP, set down a challenge that the UK should in fact aspire to be best country to grow old in, but the question remains: why are our public services so poorly prepared for major demographic change, and what as a society can we do to ensure future generations of older people thrive in later life?
Lord Filkin, Chair of the Committee on Public Services and Demographic Change, hosted a House of Lords breakfast debate looking forward to 2030, a date by which there will be 50% more people aged 65 and over in England and a doubling in the numbers of people aged 85 and over. As a society, we need to prepare for the next 15 years right now and certainly in the next Parliament.
At this event, Independent Age and ILC-UK, supported by members of the Ready for Ageing Alliance, launched 2030 Vision: Making the UK the best country to grow old in, which will look to the long term and consider what politicians and policy makers need to now, both in preparation for next year’s General Election, and between 2015 and 2020, to prepare for the long term opportunities and challenges ahead.
During the debate, we invited contributions on the economic and societal implications of population ageing and the major policy decisions all the main parties face to ready the UK and its public services for dramatic population ageing.
It’s clear that our political, social and cultural approach towards old age today is already hopelessly out of date, so this event will provide Parliamentarians and stakeholders from across civil society with an opportunity to mark the first anniversary of the House of Lords’ Committee report on demographic change and look ahead, so as a society we can seize the opportunities presented by an ageing population.
Overcoming Inequalities: Addressing barriers to extending working livesILC- UK
Socio-economic inequalities continue to present challenges to the Government’s Fuller Working Lives programme, and research conducted by the ILC-UK in 2015 found that although 1.1 million people are currently working beyond state pension age, 1 million people aged 50-64 have been forced out of work through a combination of redundancy, ill health or early retirement.
This one day conference, hosted by the ILC-UK and research teams from renEWL and the Uncertain Futures consortium allowed policy makers, business leaders, civil society organisations and academics to engage with new research findings on the socio-economic inequalities preventing some sections of the population from achieving longer, fuller working lives. The conference examined the current barriers to extending working lives: health inequalities, work place practice, and the policy barriers that Government, business and civil society can work collectively to address.
Speakers included:
John Cridland, Independent Reviewer of the State Pension Age
- Professor David Armstrong, Department of Primary Care and Public Health Sciences, King's College London
- Professor Jenny Head, Professor of Medical and Social Statistics, UCL
- Prof. Sarah Vickerstaff, Professor of Work and Employment, University of Kent
- Dr Mai Stafford, renEWL
- Dr Charlotte Clark, Uncertain Futures Research Consortium
- Peter Kelly, Senior Psychologist, Health and Safety Executive
- Nicola Lee, Employment Relations Adviser, RCN
- Dr Ewan Carr, renEWL
- Professor Wendy Loretto, Uncertain Futures Research Consortium
- Patrick Thomson, Senior Programme Manager, Centre for Ageing Better
- Denise Keating, CEO, Employers Network for Equality and Inclusion
- Yvonne Sonsino, Innovation Leader, Mercer Europe and Pacific
- Dr Emily Murray, renEWL
- Professor Chris Phillipson, Uncertain Futures Research Consortium
- Russell Taylor, DWP Fuller Working Lives Team
- Caroline Abrahams, Charity Director, Age UK
- Professor Stephen Stansfeld, renEWL
- Dr Joanne Crawford, Uncertain Futures Research Consortium
- Rachael Saunders, Business in the Community
During 2014, ILC-UK, supported by specialist insurance company, Partnership Assurance Group plc (Partnership), is undertaking a series of events to explore the relationship between our changing demography and public policy.
The second event in the series will explore how much we really know about life expectancy at the highest ages. How many of us are living to 90 and beyond? Why have estimates of life expectancy required revision? What does this tell us about increasing longevity? And what does this trend mean for public policy and long-term population planning?
Demographic change means that more people will live past the point where they require care. As the increase in life expectancy looks set to continue, we need to develop enterprising and innovative ways to help people save and plan for this eventuality and bring new money into the care system. If people are to save for their future, especially people who are on lower incomes or are less wealthy, it is essential that they have opportunities to do so in a way that is simple, attractive, engaging, and safe, and which provides them with more choice about the care and support they would like. Equally, they must not be penalised for having done so through means tested support. This is what Personal Care Savings Bonds are intended to be all about.
Public service and demographic change: an ILC-UK/Actuarial Profession joint d...ILC- UK
Full details of the event are available here: http://www.ilcuk.org.uk/index.php/events/ilc_uk_and_the_actuarial_profession_debate_public_service_and_demographic_c
The live blog for this event is available here: http://blog.ilcuk.org.uk/2013/04/23/live-blog-public-service-and-demographic-change/
Maximising the potential of the UK's ageing population. Lessons from Asia and...ILC- UK
On Wednesday, 20th April 2016, the International Longevity Centre - UK and the Global Aging Institute hosted a roundtable discussion in the House of Lords on how the UK can maximise the potential of its ageing population, supported by Prudential Plc.
The discussion focused on a range of topics emerging from the Global Aging Institute's research in East Asia, including how different Asian countries address productivity challenges, changing dependency ratios, gender disparities and the changing nature of intergenerational dependence.
These topics were also considered in relation to ageing societies across Europe, at a roundtable discussion with European Commissioners held in Brussels on Thursday, 21st April 2016.
The 4th April 2016 marks ten years to the day after the final report of the Pension Commission. The Pensions Commission painted a future where individuals would need to do a combination of working longer, saving more, or paying more tax. The Commission argued that a failure to act would lead to poorer pensioners.
This ILC-UK analysis highlights positive progress in extending working lives, preventing pensioner poverty and getting more people into saving. But the think tank warns of complacency and paints a bleak picture for future pensioners.
This analysis, published on its website finds that since the Pensions Commission:
* The average age of exit from the labour force is increasing but it is still below what it was in the 1960s and 1970s.
* In fact, the average time spent in retirement continues to increase.
* Auto-enrolment has delivered a growing number of employees with workplace pensions.
* But median contribution rates are low and a growing proportion of us have no savings. Final Salary pension coverage continues to fall.
* Younger people are less well placed than previous generations to save and may attract lower long term returns on their savings.
* Effective tax rates have been falling but have increased more recently.
* Spending on pensioner benefits slightly above the long run average as a percentage of GDP
ILC-UK/Actuarial Profession Robert Butler Memorial Lecture, in partnership wi...ILC- UK
A memorial lecture and debate on Centenarians and the Oldest Old
The ILC-UK was saddened last summer, by the loss of Dr. Robert N. Butler, founder of the first International Longevity Centre in the United States and Pulitzer prize-winning gerontologist. His invaluable contribution has changed the approach and research on ageing and longevity.
In tribute to Dr Butler, ILC-UK organised a memorial lecture and debate, in partnership with Age UK and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, on Centenarians and the Oldest Old.
In 1911 there were just 100 Centenarians living in England and Wales, a figure which grew to 9,000 people in 2006 and represented a 90-fold increase over the previous 100 years (Dini and Goldring. 2008). There was a fourteen-fold increase in male centenarians and a 23-fold increase in female centenarians over the last 50 years of the twentieth century (Dini and Goldring. 2008).
The number of people aged over 100 is expected to nearly double between 2030 and 2035, when it is projected there will be 97,300 centenarians in the UK. It is then expected to more than double again during the next decade, to stand at 202,100 by 2045. (DWP/ONS December 2010).
The ONS estimates that by 2066 there will be at least 507,000 people in the UK aged 100 or over, including 7,700 super centenarians who are aged 110 or over. By 2080, there may be 626,900 people aged over 100. 21,000 of these will be over 110. (DWP/ONS December 2010).
Even the conservative estimates for the growth in the number of the oldest old will have a significant impact on services. Yet whilst policy makers seem aware of the growth in the number of people living to 100, there has been little or no explicit exploration about the impact of the growth in numbers of oldest old on public policy.
Professor Tom Kirkwood, Associate Dean for Ageing at Newcastle University gave the Lecture. The ILC-UK presented early findings of work for Age UK on the oldest old.
Agenda from the event:
16:30 – 16.35
Welcome and introduction from chair Baroness Sally Greengross, Chief Executive, International Longevity Centre – UK
16.35 – 17.20
The Robert Butler Memorial Lecture by Professor Tom Kirkwood, Associate Dean for Ageing at Newcastle University. For a copy of Professor Kirkwood's slides please email events@ilcuk.org.uk
17.20 – 17.30
Centenarians and the Oldest Old, ILC-UK
David Sinclair
17.30 - 17.35
A personal contribution on the life of a Centenarian
Noreen Siba
17.35 – 17.45
First telegram at 110? The implications of longevity
Dr Matthew Norton
17.45 – 17.55
'What older people want and value in life?' Joseph Rowntree Foundation
Ilona Haslewood
17.55 – 18.25
Panel and Audience Debate
18.25 - 18.30
Close
29Oct14 - Productive Ageing - Dr Ros Altmann ILC- UK
This Robert Butler Memorial Lecture, held on Wednesday 29th October 2014, was part of the ILC Global Alliance visit to the UK.
Robert Butler, founder of ILC US, was a passionate believer in the importance of health and productive ageing and we were honoured that Dr Ros Altmann, government’s Business Champion for Older Workers agreed to give the Lecture.
'How can we support older workers?' an ILC-UK European policy debate, support...ILC- UK
Tuesday 3rd September, M&G, Governor’s House, Laurence Pountney Hill, London, EC4R 0HH, 16:00 for a 16:30 start – 18:30
Featuring Steve Webb MP (Minister for Pensions); Christopher Brooks (Age UK) and David Sinclair (ILC-UK), presenting findings from a new policy review of European innovations in supporting longer working lives. Chaired by Baroness Greengross, CEO, ILC-UK and cross-bench peer
Europe needs older workers. Its long-term ageing population and recent economic hardships are creating huge fiscal and demographic pressures - pressures which could be greatly relieved if it can encourage its workers to remain in work for longer.
How is this to be achieved?
The European Union recently launched its Europe 2020 strategy which set employment targets of 75% for workers aged 20-64. However, with the old-age dependency ratio for the EU28 predicted to climb over 50% by 2050, much more still needs to be done.
In this event we will hear UK and EU perspectives on how older workers can be supported, with contributions from Steve Webb MP, the UK Minister for Pensions; and Christopher Brooks (Age UK)
To inform this debate, ILC-UK launched a report at the event, supported by Prudential, which shares key policy approaches being taken across to support older workers.
Throughout 2014, ILC-UK, supported by specialist insurance company, Partnership Assurance Group plc, is undertaking a series of events to explore the relationship between our changing demography and public policy.
The fourth event in this 'Population Patterns Seminar Series' considered the findings of our ‘Factpack’ of UK demographic statistics.
We all know that people are living longer but how is that likely to change our society? How will pensions be affected? How will we care for our growing older society when the traditional “working age” population is shrinking?
These types of debates are increasingly being played out in the media and in political circles but in order for such debates to be productive, they have to be well informed.
ILC-UK believes its 2014 ‘Factpack’ will support this process by highlighting the most recent evidence of our rapidly ageing society. Not only does it provide statistics on a range of critical topics from life expectancy to housing supply; and pensions to long-term care, it also includes a special focus on the current and potential future state of pensioner poverty.
The event was chaired by Baroness Sally Greengross (ILC-UK) with a welcome from Steve Haberman (Dean of the Cass Business School). We were delighted that Gregg McClymont MP, Shadow Minister (Work and Pensions), spoke at at the launch event. We also heard presentations from Professor Les Mayhew (Professor of Statistics, Cass Business School), Steve Groves (Chief Executive of Partnership), Ben Franklin (Research Fellow at ILC-UK) and a response from Tom Younger of the Department for Work and Pensions.
During the discussion we explored:
How the UK’s demography has changed since the release of the 2013 Factpack and how it might change in the future,
How demographic change is reshaping our society,
The challenge of pensioner poverty,
Regional variations in the experiences of older people,
How policy makers should respond to these findings.
Agenda
16:00 - 16:30 Registration
16:30 - 16:35 Welcome by Chair, Baroness Sally Greengross (ILC-UK)
16:35 - 16:40 Welcome by the Dean of Cass Business School, Professor Stete Habberman
16:40 - 16:50 Presentation from Richard Willets (Partnership)
16:50 - 17:10 Presentation from Gregg McClymont MP (Shadow Minister for Work and Pensions)
17:10 - 17:20 Presentation from Ben Franklin (ILC-UK)
17:20 - 17:30 Presentation from Professor Les Mayhew (Cass Business School) Presentation
17:30 - 17:35 Response from Tom Younger (Department for Work and Pensions)
17:35 - 18:25 Discussion/Q&A
18:25 - 18:30 Close by Chair, Baroness Sally Greengross (ILC-UK)
18:30 - 19:15 Drinks reception
This was the final event in the Population Patterns Seminar Series which explored the “silver separators”- divorce later in life.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics published in 2012 showed a huge rise in the divorce rate amongst those in their 60s, with an increase of 58% on the 2011 figure. The last 10 years have seen more and more older people part ways, despite divorce amongst the general population becoming less common. This has happened to such an extent that the over 60’s are now the fastest growing divorce group in the UK.
A variety of reasons have been suggested, including a reduction in the stigma surrounding divorce and couples no longer feeling obliged to stay together if their attitudes and needs change.
However, figures released by the ONS in June 2012 revealed that marriages involving older people were also rising faster than for other age groups – up by 21% for women and by 25% for men in their late sixties. Re-partnership is likely to be even higher than these figures suggest, as older people in a new relationship may not choose to remarry.
During the event the discussion explored a number of themes, including:
What factors have contributed to the rising rate of divorce amongst the over 60s?
How can older people’s relationships be better supported?
What challenges does ageing present to relationships?
How do care responsibilities effect relationships?
What are the potential ramifications of older couples separating?
08May14 - Community Matters: Are our communities ready for ageing?ILC- UK
As the population ages, an increasing number of people will be growing older and continuing to live in communities around the country. Many of our communities are ill-prepared for both the varying needs of older people ageing in place and the future increase in numbers of older people who will need appropriate housing, transport and services. The local elections in May also bring these issues into focus for elected representatives who will be seeking to prepare their areas for these challenges and give the best opportunities for good ageing to their constituents.
At this event we heard results of a series of three solutions-focussed policy discussions held by ILC-UK and Age UK. These discussions have looked at three distinct aspects of communities – from living at home, to getting out and about and the activities and amenities available (or missing) in our communities. We will be discussing a forthcoming report summarising the fresh thinking and practical suggestions for policy makers, local government and community groups gathered from these sessions.
The conference also included sessions on research and information on this topic, and what needs to be done to take action in our communities. All sessions will feature opportunities for attendees to participate in the discussion and add their views on where priorities for action should be focussed.
Does living in a retirement village extend life expectancy? The case of white...ILC- UK
'Does living in a retirement village extend life expectancy? The case of Whiteley Village' investigates the possible benefits of retirement village life with respect to life expectancy i.e. whether Villagers live longer on average than the general population, using Whiteley Village as a case study.
This presentation was delivered at the report launch at Cass Business School on Wednesday, 22nd February 2017.
This presentation includes the ILC-UK's Ben Franklin and Cesira Urzì Brancati presenting a summary of the Moved to Care report; a response from Dr Shereen Hussein, Senior Research Fellow at King's College London; and a response from Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory.
Many older people have equity tied up in their homes that could be used to provide them with a greater income in later life and improve their standard of living. Traditionally, the ways to unlock the equity in people’s homes have been through downsizing, equity release lifetime loans or home reversion plans. However, not everyone is in a position to downsize, there are pros and cons to each approach, and all have associated costs.
The Equity Bank would provide a new way for people to unlock the equity in their home. It would be a state agency which provides people with a low cost fixed lifetime income in exchange for a fixed share of the equity in their home. The Equity Bank would take a charge on the person’s home and recover the value of the equity from the person’s estate after their death.
The event was chaired by Baroness Sally Greengross, Chief Executive of the ILC-UK. Nick Kirwan, Director of the ILC-UK Care Funding Advice Network, opened the discussion. Professor Les Mayhew of Cass Business School and co-author of the paper 'The UK Equity Bank - Towards income security in old age' thened present the concept, after which Paul Burstow MP responded. There was then time for questions and a general discussion.
27Mar14 - Community Matters Semiar Series - At Home - ppt presentation ILC- UK
The slides from the second in a series of three seminars from ILC-UK and Age UK on Community Matters - are our communities ready for ageing?
Full details here: http://www.ilcuk.org.uk/index.php/events/community_matters_are_our_communities_ready_for_ageing._at_home
Presentation slides from the ILC-UK 'What is retirmeent really like?' launch event on the 1st December 2015.
Building on ILC-UK’s extensive work on older consumers and on retirement income, this major research report assesses the differences between theory or popular belief about retirement and the reality of it.
The report considers how spending varies during old age and challenges pre-existing stereotypes about retired life which can be misleading and may contribute to poor planning or unrealistic expectations. This report, which incorporates new quantitative analysis and the feedback from 3 expert focus groups, will explore the role for policymakers and industry in helping us retire well.
10Feb14 - Linking SPA to Longevity - ILC-UKILC- UK
Speaking during the Autumn Statement in December 2013, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne MP, confirmed plans which would mean that people should spend a third of their adult lives in retirement.
The 2013 Draft Pensions Bill, currently going through the House of Lords, proposes five-year reviews of the State Pension Age (SPA) with the aim of maintaining the proportion of adult life spent in receipt of a state pension based on increasing life expectancy.
In the UK, reductions in mortality have been accompanied by increased life expectancies over the last century. Between 1911 to 2010, life expectancy in the UK has increased from 49.4 to 78.5 for men and from 53.1 to 82.4 for women. The Chancellor confirmed that the date when the state pension age rises to 68 will be brought forward to the mid-2030s - it had not been due to kick in until 2046 - and the state pension age could rise to 69 by the late 2040s.
A growing number of countries are beginning to link pension age with increases in life expectancy to address the financial impact of an ageing population. Across the OECD, countries are raising retirement ages as life expectancy increases. By 2050, the average state pension age will rise from 63 for men and 62 for women to almost 65 for both sexes. A number of countries in the European Union have linked pension benefits with life expectancy including Spain, Italy, Czech Republic, Denmark, Greece and the Netherlands.
It has been estimated that, from 2007 to 2032, the public expenditure on pensions and related benefits will rise from 4.7% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 6.2%.
But whilst increasing the State Pension Age appears to be a logical step to addressing the financial challenges of an ageing population, the complex interplay of factors impacting on retirement and workforce participation cannot be ignored.
Our event considered some of these challenges such as:
How can increasing the State Pension Age be fair when significant numbers of poorer citizens will reach this age in ill-health (or not at all)?
Which groups lose out most by an increase in state pension age?
How can we respond to the fairness challenge?
The appropriateness of different measures of life expectancy (cohort life expectancy; period life expectancy; healthy life expectancy; disability free life expectancy).
Will increasing the State Pension Age reduce the dependency ratio and extend working lives?
What will be the fiscal impact if an increasing number older people find themselves unable to work and needing to access working age benefits?
At the event, we heared from the Minister for Pensions, Steve Webb MP; ILC-UK Research Fellow, Ben Franklin; Dr Craig Berry, ILC-UK Fellow and Research Fellow at the University of Sheffield; Camilla Williamson, Age UK’s Development and Support Manager, Knowledge Transfer; Professor John MacInnes, a social demographer and Professor of Sociology at the University of Edinburgh.
New analysis shows 60s who join a gym more likely to join a religious group
The ILC-UK's longitudinal analysis also found that over 60s who join a political party are also significantly more likely to join a religious group like a church, synagogue or mosque.
ILC-UK Future of Ageing Presentation Slides - 09Nov16 ILC- UK
On Wednesday 9th November 2016, ILC-UK held it's second annual future of Ageing conference.
We welcomed over 180 delegates made up of business leaders; charity sector experts; public sector decision makers; local authority staff; academics; and senior journalists.
The one day conference was chaired by Baroness Slly Greengross OBE and Lawrence Churchill CBE, and we heard from the following speakers:
- Dr Islene Araujo de Carvalho, Senior Policy and Strategy Adviser, Department of Ageing and Life Course, WHO
- John Cridland CBE, Head of the Independent State Pension Age Review
- The Rt Rev. and the Rt Hon. the Lord Carey of Clifton, Archbishop of Canterbury 1991-2002
- Ben Franklin, Head of Economics of an Ageing Society, ILC-UK
- Professor Sarah Harper, Director, Oxford Institute of Population Ageing
- Dwayne Johnson, Director of Social Care and Health at Sefton Metropolitan Borough Council
- Dr Margaret McCartney, Author and Broadcaster
- John Pullinger CB, National Statistician, UK Statistics Authority
- David Sinclair, Director, ILC-UK
- Jonathan Stevens, Senior Vice President, Thought Leadership, AARP
- Linda Woodall, Director of Life Insurance and Financial Advice, and sponsor of the Ageing Population project, Financial Conduct Authority
The 4th April 2016 marks ten years to the day after the final report of the Pension Commission. The Pensions Commission painted a future where individuals would need to do a combination of working longer, saving more, or paying more tax. The Commission argued that a failure to act would lead to poorer pensioners.
This ILC-UK analysis highlights positive progress in extending working lives, preventing pensioner poverty and getting more people into saving. But the think tank warns of complacency and paints a bleak picture for future pensioners.
This analysis, published on its website finds that since the Pensions Commission:
* The average age of exit from the labour force is increasing but it is still below what it was in the 1960s and 1970s.
* In fact, the average time spent in retirement continues to increase.
* Auto-enrolment has delivered a growing number of employees with workplace pensions.
* But median contribution rates are low and a growing proportion of us have no savings. Final Salary pension coverage continues to fall.
* Younger people are less well placed than previous generations to save and may attract lower long term returns on their savings.
* Effective tax rates have been falling but have increased more recently.
* Spending on pensioner benefits slightly above the long run average as a percentage of GDP
ILC-UK/Actuarial Profession Robert Butler Memorial Lecture, in partnership wi...ILC- UK
A memorial lecture and debate on Centenarians and the Oldest Old
The ILC-UK was saddened last summer, by the loss of Dr. Robert N. Butler, founder of the first International Longevity Centre in the United States and Pulitzer prize-winning gerontologist. His invaluable contribution has changed the approach and research on ageing and longevity.
In tribute to Dr Butler, ILC-UK organised a memorial lecture and debate, in partnership with Age UK and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, on Centenarians and the Oldest Old.
In 1911 there were just 100 Centenarians living in England and Wales, a figure which grew to 9,000 people in 2006 and represented a 90-fold increase over the previous 100 years (Dini and Goldring. 2008). There was a fourteen-fold increase in male centenarians and a 23-fold increase in female centenarians over the last 50 years of the twentieth century (Dini and Goldring. 2008).
The number of people aged over 100 is expected to nearly double between 2030 and 2035, when it is projected there will be 97,300 centenarians in the UK. It is then expected to more than double again during the next decade, to stand at 202,100 by 2045. (DWP/ONS December 2010).
The ONS estimates that by 2066 there will be at least 507,000 people in the UK aged 100 or over, including 7,700 super centenarians who are aged 110 or over. By 2080, there may be 626,900 people aged over 100. 21,000 of these will be over 110. (DWP/ONS December 2010).
Even the conservative estimates for the growth in the number of the oldest old will have a significant impact on services. Yet whilst policy makers seem aware of the growth in the number of people living to 100, there has been little or no explicit exploration about the impact of the growth in numbers of oldest old on public policy.
Professor Tom Kirkwood, Associate Dean for Ageing at Newcastle University gave the Lecture. The ILC-UK presented early findings of work for Age UK on the oldest old.
Agenda from the event:
16:30 – 16.35
Welcome and introduction from chair Baroness Sally Greengross, Chief Executive, International Longevity Centre – UK
16.35 – 17.20
The Robert Butler Memorial Lecture by Professor Tom Kirkwood, Associate Dean for Ageing at Newcastle University. For a copy of Professor Kirkwood's slides please email events@ilcuk.org.uk
17.20 – 17.30
Centenarians and the Oldest Old, ILC-UK
David Sinclair
17.30 - 17.35
A personal contribution on the life of a Centenarian
Noreen Siba
17.35 – 17.45
First telegram at 110? The implications of longevity
Dr Matthew Norton
17.45 – 17.55
'What older people want and value in life?' Joseph Rowntree Foundation
Ilona Haslewood
17.55 – 18.25
Panel and Audience Debate
18.25 - 18.30
Close
29Oct14 - Productive Ageing - Dr Ros Altmann ILC- UK
This Robert Butler Memorial Lecture, held on Wednesday 29th October 2014, was part of the ILC Global Alliance visit to the UK.
Robert Butler, founder of ILC US, was a passionate believer in the importance of health and productive ageing and we were honoured that Dr Ros Altmann, government’s Business Champion for Older Workers agreed to give the Lecture.
'How can we support older workers?' an ILC-UK European policy debate, support...ILC- UK
Tuesday 3rd September, M&G, Governor’s House, Laurence Pountney Hill, London, EC4R 0HH, 16:00 for a 16:30 start – 18:30
Featuring Steve Webb MP (Minister for Pensions); Christopher Brooks (Age UK) and David Sinclair (ILC-UK), presenting findings from a new policy review of European innovations in supporting longer working lives. Chaired by Baroness Greengross, CEO, ILC-UK and cross-bench peer
Europe needs older workers. Its long-term ageing population and recent economic hardships are creating huge fiscal and demographic pressures - pressures which could be greatly relieved if it can encourage its workers to remain in work for longer.
How is this to be achieved?
The European Union recently launched its Europe 2020 strategy which set employment targets of 75% for workers aged 20-64. However, with the old-age dependency ratio for the EU28 predicted to climb over 50% by 2050, much more still needs to be done.
In this event we will hear UK and EU perspectives on how older workers can be supported, with contributions from Steve Webb MP, the UK Minister for Pensions; and Christopher Brooks (Age UK)
To inform this debate, ILC-UK launched a report at the event, supported by Prudential, which shares key policy approaches being taken across to support older workers.
Throughout 2014, ILC-UK, supported by specialist insurance company, Partnership Assurance Group plc, is undertaking a series of events to explore the relationship between our changing demography and public policy.
The fourth event in this 'Population Patterns Seminar Series' considered the findings of our ‘Factpack’ of UK demographic statistics.
We all know that people are living longer but how is that likely to change our society? How will pensions be affected? How will we care for our growing older society when the traditional “working age” population is shrinking?
These types of debates are increasingly being played out in the media and in political circles but in order for such debates to be productive, they have to be well informed.
ILC-UK believes its 2014 ‘Factpack’ will support this process by highlighting the most recent evidence of our rapidly ageing society. Not only does it provide statistics on a range of critical topics from life expectancy to housing supply; and pensions to long-term care, it also includes a special focus on the current and potential future state of pensioner poverty.
The event was chaired by Baroness Sally Greengross (ILC-UK) with a welcome from Steve Haberman (Dean of the Cass Business School). We were delighted that Gregg McClymont MP, Shadow Minister (Work and Pensions), spoke at at the launch event. We also heard presentations from Professor Les Mayhew (Professor of Statistics, Cass Business School), Steve Groves (Chief Executive of Partnership), Ben Franklin (Research Fellow at ILC-UK) and a response from Tom Younger of the Department for Work and Pensions.
During the discussion we explored:
How the UK’s demography has changed since the release of the 2013 Factpack and how it might change in the future,
How demographic change is reshaping our society,
The challenge of pensioner poverty,
Regional variations in the experiences of older people,
How policy makers should respond to these findings.
Agenda
16:00 - 16:30 Registration
16:30 - 16:35 Welcome by Chair, Baroness Sally Greengross (ILC-UK)
16:35 - 16:40 Welcome by the Dean of Cass Business School, Professor Stete Habberman
16:40 - 16:50 Presentation from Richard Willets (Partnership)
16:50 - 17:10 Presentation from Gregg McClymont MP (Shadow Minister for Work and Pensions)
17:10 - 17:20 Presentation from Ben Franklin (ILC-UK)
17:20 - 17:30 Presentation from Professor Les Mayhew (Cass Business School) Presentation
17:30 - 17:35 Response from Tom Younger (Department for Work and Pensions)
17:35 - 18:25 Discussion/Q&A
18:25 - 18:30 Close by Chair, Baroness Sally Greengross (ILC-UK)
18:30 - 19:15 Drinks reception
This was the final event in the Population Patterns Seminar Series which explored the “silver separators”- divorce later in life.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics published in 2012 showed a huge rise in the divorce rate amongst those in their 60s, with an increase of 58% on the 2011 figure. The last 10 years have seen more and more older people part ways, despite divorce amongst the general population becoming less common. This has happened to such an extent that the over 60’s are now the fastest growing divorce group in the UK.
A variety of reasons have been suggested, including a reduction in the stigma surrounding divorce and couples no longer feeling obliged to stay together if their attitudes and needs change.
However, figures released by the ONS in June 2012 revealed that marriages involving older people were also rising faster than for other age groups – up by 21% for women and by 25% for men in their late sixties. Re-partnership is likely to be even higher than these figures suggest, as older people in a new relationship may not choose to remarry.
During the event the discussion explored a number of themes, including:
What factors have contributed to the rising rate of divorce amongst the over 60s?
How can older people’s relationships be better supported?
What challenges does ageing present to relationships?
How do care responsibilities effect relationships?
What are the potential ramifications of older couples separating?
08May14 - Community Matters: Are our communities ready for ageing?ILC- UK
As the population ages, an increasing number of people will be growing older and continuing to live in communities around the country. Many of our communities are ill-prepared for both the varying needs of older people ageing in place and the future increase in numbers of older people who will need appropriate housing, transport and services. The local elections in May also bring these issues into focus for elected representatives who will be seeking to prepare their areas for these challenges and give the best opportunities for good ageing to their constituents.
At this event we heard results of a series of three solutions-focussed policy discussions held by ILC-UK and Age UK. These discussions have looked at three distinct aspects of communities – from living at home, to getting out and about and the activities and amenities available (or missing) in our communities. We will be discussing a forthcoming report summarising the fresh thinking and practical suggestions for policy makers, local government and community groups gathered from these sessions.
The conference also included sessions on research and information on this topic, and what needs to be done to take action in our communities. All sessions will feature opportunities for attendees to participate in the discussion and add their views on where priorities for action should be focussed.
Does living in a retirement village extend life expectancy? The case of white...ILC- UK
'Does living in a retirement village extend life expectancy? The case of Whiteley Village' investigates the possible benefits of retirement village life with respect to life expectancy i.e. whether Villagers live longer on average than the general population, using Whiteley Village as a case study.
This presentation was delivered at the report launch at Cass Business School on Wednesday, 22nd February 2017.
This presentation includes the ILC-UK's Ben Franklin and Cesira Urzì Brancati presenting a summary of the Moved to Care report; a response from Dr Shereen Hussein, Senior Research Fellow at King's College London; and a response from Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory.
Many older people have equity tied up in their homes that could be used to provide them with a greater income in later life and improve their standard of living. Traditionally, the ways to unlock the equity in people’s homes have been through downsizing, equity release lifetime loans or home reversion plans. However, not everyone is in a position to downsize, there are pros and cons to each approach, and all have associated costs.
The Equity Bank would provide a new way for people to unlock the equity in their home. It would be a state agency which provides people with a low cost fixed lifetime income in exchange for a fixed share of the equity in their home. The Equity Bank would take a charge on the person’s home and recover the value of the equity from the person’s estate after their death.
The event was chaired by Baroness Sally Greengross, Chief Executive of the ILC-UK. Nick Kirwan, Director of the ILC-UK Care Funding Advice Network, opened the discussion. Professor Les Mayhew of Cass Business School and co-author of the paper 'The UK Equity Bank - Towards income security in old age' thened present the concept, after which Paul Burstow MP responded. There was then time for questions and a general discussion.
27Mar14 - Community Matters Semiar Series - At Home - ppt presentation ILC- UK
The slides from the second in a series of three seminars from ILC-UK and Age UK on Community Matters - are our communities ready for ageing?
Full details here: http://www.ilcuk.org.uk/index.php/events/community_matters_are_our_communities_ready_for_ageing._at_home
Presentation slides from the ILC-UK 'What is retirmeent really like?' launch event on the 1st December 2015.
Building on ILC-UK’s extensive work on older consumers and on retirement income, this major research report assesses the differences between theory or popular belief about retirement and the reality of it.
The report considers how spending varies during old age and challenges pre-existing stereotypes about retired life which can be misleading and may contribute to poor planning or unrealistic expectations. This report, which incorporates new quantitative analysis and the feedback from 3 expert focus groups, will explore the role for policymakers and industry in helping us retire well.
10Feb14 - Linking SPA to Longevity - ILC-UKILC- UK
Speaking during the Autumn Statement in December 2013, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne MP, confirmed plans which would mean that people should spend a third of their adult lives in retirement.
The 2013 Draft Pensions Bill, currently going through the House of Lords, proposes five-year reviews of the State Pension Age (SPA) with the aim of maintaining the proportion of adult life spent in receipt of a state pension based on increasing life expectancy.
In the UK, reductions in mortality have been accompanied by increased life expectancies over the last century. Between 1911 to 2010, life expectancy in the UK has increased from 49.4 to 78.5 for men and from 53.1 to 82.4 for women. The Chancellor confirmed that the date when the state pension age rises to 68 will be brought forward to the mid-2030s - it had not been due to kick in until 2046 - and the state pension age could rise to 69 by the late 2040s.
A growing number of countries are beginning to link pension age with increases in life expectancy to address the financial impact of an ageing population. Across the OECD, countries are raising retirement ages as life expectancy increases. By 2050, the average state pension age will rise from 63 for men and 62 for women to almost 65 for both sexes. A number of countries in the European Union have linked pension benefits with life expectancy including Spain, Italy, Czech Republic, Denmark, Greece and the Netherlands.
It has been estimated that, from 2007 to 2032, the public expenditure on pensions and related benefits will rise from 4.7% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 6.2%.
But whilst increasing the State Pension Age appears to be a logical step to addressing the financial challenges of an ageing population, the complex interplay of factors impacting on retirement and workforce participation cannot be ignored.
Our event considered some of these challenges such as:
How can increasing the State Pension Age be fair when significant numbers of poorer citizens will reach this age in ill-health (or not at all)?
Which groups lose out most by an increase in state pension age?
How can we respond to the fairness challenge?
The appropriateness of different measures of life expectancy (cohort life expectancy; period life expectancy; healthy life expectancy; disability free life expectancy).
Will increasing the State Pension Age reduce the dependency ratio and extend working lives?
What will be the fiscal impact if an increasing number older people find themselves unable to work and needing to access working age benefits?
At the event, we heared from the Minister for Pensions, Steve Webb MP; ILC-UK Research Fellow, Ben Franklin; Dr Craig Berry, ILC-UK Fellow and Research Fellow at the University of Sheffield; Camilla Williamson, Age UK’s Development and Support Manager, Knowledge Transfer; Professor John MacInnes, a social demographer and Professor of Sociology at the University of Edinburgh.
New analysis shows 60s who join a gym more likely to join a religious group
The ILC-UK's longitudinal analysis also found that over 60s who join a political party are also significantly more likely to join a religious group like a church, synagogue or mosque.
ILC-UK Future of Ageing Presentation Slides - 09Nov16 ILC- UK
On Wednesday 9th November 2016, ILC-UK held it's second annual future of Ageing conference.
We welcomed over 180 delegates made up of business leaders; charity sector experts; public sector decision makers; local authority staff; academics; and senior journalists.
The one day conference was chaired by Baroness Slly Greengross OBE and Lawrence Churchill CBE, and we heard from the following speakers:
- Dr Islene Araujo de Carvalho, Senior Policy and Strategy Adviser, Department of Ageing and Life Course, WHO
- John Cridland CBE, Head of the Independent State Pension Age Review
- The Rt Rev. and the Rt Hon. the Lord Carey of Clifton, Archbishop of Canterbury 1991-2002
- Ben Franklin, Head of Economics of an Ageing Society, ILC-UK
- Professor Sarah Harper, Director, Oxford Institute of Population Ageing
- Dwayne Johnson, Director of Social Care and Health at Sefton Metropolitan Borough Council
- Dr Margaret McCartney, Author and Broadcaster
- John Pullinger CB, National Statistician, UK Statistics Authority
- David Sinclair, Director, ILC-UK
- Jonathan Stevens, Senior Vice President, Thought Leadership, AARP
- Linda Woodall, Director of Life Insurance and Financial Advice, and sponsor of the Ageing Population project, Financial Conduct Authority
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Getting More Business from Your Members with Electronic Strategies (Credit Un...NAFCU Services Corporation
In this 2012 Strategic Growth Conference session, learn how effectively communicating with your members and potential members has recently become more complicated. Explore how you can successfully integrate electronic response communications with conventional communication vehicles to stimulate your credit union’s growth. Discover the importance of your members’ data and how segmentation can make your growth strategies more valuable. You will walk away with three tools that you can start implementing immediately to make your communication strategies work better for you while developing your members’ engagement and helping your credit union grow. More info at: www.nafcu.org/cathedral
How stalling life expectancy is impacting the UK economyILCUK
Life expectancy for people aged over 50 has started to fall, new research from the International Longevity Centre – UK (ILC) reveals. The analysis finds that changes to the health and life expectancy of people over 50 will have a significant impact on the economy. The fall in healthy life expectancy will result in more people dropping out of work earlier than anticipated.
ILC, the leading authority on the impact of longevity on society, reveals reveal that:
• Life expectancy for fifty-year-olds is now 2.3 years less than it would have been had the long-established trend continued.
• Every year of lost life expectancy results in 2.6 years less spent in good health.
• A UK man dying at age 80 could expect to spend on average 64.5 years in good health, but if his life expectancy is only 78, he will spend less than 60 years in good health.
ILC point out that a fall in life expectancy is generally preceded by a period of ill health which can vary in length according to pre-existing health conditions, age and other factors.
This is a keynote presentation I made at Idaho State University on October 19, 2012 at the 5th Annual Thomas Geriatric Health Symposium in Pocatello, Idaho. It was also streamed to the Meridian campus. I discuss demographics, how boomers will change the aging culture and the impact on Medicare and Social Security.
Inequalities matter: An investigation into the impact of deprivation on inequ...ILC- UK
Professor Les Mayhew Professor of Statistics, Cass Business School, is presenting the emerging patterns of inequalities and life expectancy and their wider implications for social and economic policy.
The U.S. Census Bureau released a report in 2014 detailing the growth of the aging population. The senior population, defined as those 65 and older, comprised 13% of the total U.S. population in 2010. That number is expected to rise to nearly 21% by 2050. For the full report, visit http://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2014/demo/p23-212.pdf. For more about the Professional Development in Gerontology Certificate, visit ccpe.kennesaw.edu/gerontology.
We held a webinar with the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) for an in-depth look at the factors affecting working lifetimes, the impact of demographic changes and the implications for future policy.
Key questions we looked at were:
What changes are we seeing in our demographics?
How might working lives change?
Do longer lives equate to healthier lives?
Exploring this with us were:
Chair: Sophia Dimitriadis (Senior Economist, ILC)
Matt Gurden – Actuarial Director for Clients Development and Growth, Government Actuary Department
Steven Baxter – Head of Innovation and Development, Club Vita
Maximising the economic opportunity of ageing - Future of Ageing 2019ILC- UK
In this introductory session at the ILC's fifth Future of Ageing Conference, ILC Director, David Sinclair, set the scene for the conference.
Delegates heard about the new ILC research on the longevity dividend, which sets out the huge economic contribution of older people today and projects potential future economic growth as a result of ageing.
David talked about ILC’s views on how we might realise an even greater longevity dividend for the UK economy, by unlocking the full potential of older adults as consumers and employees.
Download 'Maximising the longevity dividend' from the ILC website - https://ilcuk.org.uk/maximising-the-longevity-dividend/
Find our more about Future of Ageing 2019 - https://ilcuk.org.uk/event-the-future-of-ageing/
On the 24th November 2015, we held our first annual conference on 'The Future of Ageing'.
During this full day conference we painted a picture of the future of ageing and explored the challenges and opportunities ahead. Through our unique lifecourse focus we explored the potential impact of ageing not just on today’s older population, but also on tomorrows.
We heard presentations from:
- Steven Baxter (Partner, Hymans Robertson);
- Lord Filkin (Chair of the Centre for Ageing Better and Chair of the House of Lords Committee on Public Service and Demographic Change);
- Lord Willetts (Executive Chair at Resolution Foundation, and former Minister of State [Department for Business, Innovation and Skills]);
- Paul Johnson (Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies);
- Baroness Altmann (Minister for Pensions);
- Professor Jane Elliott (Chief Executive, Economic and Social Research Council);
- Professor Sir Mark Walport (Government Chief Scientific Adviser [GCSA] and Head of the Government Office for Science);
- Jim Boyd (Director of Corporate Affairs, Partnership);
- Elaine Draper (Director, Accessibility & Inclusion, Barclays);
- Mario Ambrosi (Head of Communications and Public Affairs, Anchor);
- Baroness Kay Andrews (Member of the House of Lords Built Environment Committee, Former Parliamentary Under-Secretary (Department for Communities and Local Government) 2006-2009);
- Professor Ian Philp (Deputy Medical Director for Older People’s Care, Heart of England NHS Foundation Trust).
The conference was chaired by Baroness Sally Greengross (Chief Executive, ILC-UK) and Lawrence Churchill (Trustee, ILC-UK).
A R T I C L E STHE AGING OF THE WORLD’S POPULATION AND ITS.docxransayo
A R T I C L E S
THE AGING OF THE WORLD’S POPULATION AND ITS
EFFECTS ON GLOBAL BUSINESS
MASUD CHAND
Wichita State University
ROSALIE L. TUNG
Simon Fraser University
The rapid aging of the world’s population will bring unprecedented and important
changes in the global economic environment, creating unique challenges and oppor-
tunities for businesses worldwide. These challenges and opportunities span multiple
business areas, including strategy, human resources, cross-cultural management, and
marketing, while operating simultaneously at the functional, corporate, and public
policy levels nationally and internationally. In this paper, we first present an overview
of the aging situation globally and the challenges that result from it. Then we explain
some of the reasons behind demographic shifts in different countries, and how a
graying population affects macroeconomic systems. Finally, we analyze the implica-
tions for businesses, in terms of both opportunities and challenges, and provide
insights on how businesses can cope with these changes. We explain our findings
through several themes that emerge from our research and discuss their implications
for global businesses.
Declining birthrates and rising life expectancies
in many countries are causing a seismic demo-
graphic transformation, and this transformation—
the rapid aging of the world’s population—is bring-
ing about unparalleled changes in the global
business environment in terms of business oppor-
tunities, workforce productivity, cross-cultural
management, marketing, macroeconomic public
policies, and corporate strategy. According to the
United Nations World Population Aging Report
(UN Population Division, 2005), this process is tak-
ing place in all but 18 countries (mostly in sub-
Saharan Africa). For most of human history, the
elderly (those over 65) have never exceeded 3% or
4% of a country’s population. In today’s developed
world, they comprise roughly 15% of the popula-
tion. By 2050, this could reach 25% on average
(Center for Strategic and International Studies,
2011). The aging of the population in most coun-
tries of the world is leading to important changes in
the global economic environment— changes that
create unique and unprecedented challenges and
opportunities for businesses.
Aging occurs when the median age of a country
or region rises due to prolonged life expectancy
and/or declining birthrates. While aging is a world-
wide phenomenon, its effects have been dramati-
cally evident in developed countries so far: The
overall median age in developed countries (corre-
sponding figures for the world as a whole appear in
parentheses) rose from 29.0 (23.9) in 1950 to 39.6
(28.1) in 2009, and is forecasted to rise to 45.5
(37.8) by 2050. In addition, the pace of aging is
projected to accelerate in developing countries: By
2050, the worldwide population of people over 60
will reach two billion, three-quarters of whom
will be from developing countries (Australian In-
stitu.
Similar to Policy Debate: Longevity, health and public policy. How should policy-makers respond to increased longevity? (20)
Global launch of the Healthy Ageing and Prevention Index 2nd wave – alongside...ILC- UK
The Healthy Ageing and Prevention Index is an online tool created by ILC that ranks countries on six metrics including, life span, health span, work span, income, environmental performance, and happiness. The Index helps us understand how well countries have adapted to longevity and inform decision makers on what must be done to maximise the economic benefits that comes with living well for longer.
Alongside the 77th World Health Assembly in Geneva on 28 May 2024, we launched the second version of our Index, allowing us to track progress and give new insights into what needs to be done to keep populations healthier for longer.
The speakers included:
Professor Orazio Schillaci, Minister of Health, Italy
Dr Hans Groth, Chairman of the Board, World Demographic & Ageing Forum
Professor Ilona Kickbusch, Founder and Chair, Global Health Centre, Geneva Graduate Institute and co-chair, World Health Summit Council
Dr Natasha Azzopardi Muscat, Director, Country Health Policies and Systems Division, World Health Organisation EURO
Dr Marta Lomazzi, Executive Manager, World Federation of Public Health Associations
Dr Shyam Bishen, Head, Centre for Health and Healthcare and Member of the Executive Committee, World Economic Forum
Dr Karin Tegmark Wisell, Director General, Public Health Agency of Sweden
Redefining lifelong learning webinar presentation slides.pptxILC- UK
We know that we’re living longer, which means many people will also be working for longer. One in seven people over 65 are still employed in the UK, but we’re still seeing challenges in our labour markets.
According to the ILC’s Healthy Ageing and Prevention Index, the UK’s work span is only 31.5 years, ranking the UK 47th out of 121 countries. Skills shortages driven by demographic change are hitting all sectors of the UK’s economy: by 2030, we could see a shortage of 2.6 million workers. On the other hand, if UK employment rates for those aged 50 to 64 matched the rates of those aged 35 to 49, the country’s GDP would increase by more than 5%.
One way to improve work span and employment is through lifelong learning. However, in the UK, as the Learning and Work Institute’s Adult Participation in Learning survey showed, rates of learning continue to fall with age. In 2023, only 36% of people aged 55 to 64, 24% of those aged 65 to 74, and 17% of those aged 75 and over said that they’d taken part in any kind of learning in the past three years.
To better understand the approaches in other countries, we consulted with experts in lifelong learning, both from the UK and globally. ILC's report, in collaboration with Phoenix Insights, Redefining lifelong learning: lessons from across the globe considers the approaches taken in Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden. While each country’s approach is different, and shaped by its wider cultural, political and economic context, there are some common threads including: learning culture; the range of learning opportunities on offer; levels of support and investment; and accessibility
"If only I had"... LV= insights into retirement planning webinarILC- UK
As part of this debate LV= shares the findings from their quarterly Wealth and Wellbeing research programme, which surveys a nationally representative sample of 4,000 adults across the UK on a variety of topics, including their changing attitude to their finances and their wider wellbeing.
Healthy Ageing and Prevention Index - Our impactILC- UK
This year, ILC-UK launched the Healthy Ageing and Prevention Index. This slide deck summarizes what we’ve achieved so far and sets out our plans for 2024 to continue to shape the agenda on global health.
Alongside the G20 Health Ministers’ meeting in Gandhinagar, India, in August, ILC-India and ILC-UK held a joint high-level side event to amplify the importance of healthy ageing and prevention among the G20.
Plugging the gap: Estimating the demand and supply of jobs by sector in 2030ILC- UK
The UK economy could see a shortfall of 2.6 million workers by 2030 – almost twice the workforce of the NHS – as a result of population ageing, the COVID pandemic and Brexit.
These shortfalls will affect the whole economy, with manufacturing, retail, construction, transport, health and social care among the sectors projected to be hardest hit.
To plug these gaps, Government must introduce a comprehensive Workforce Strategy looking at:
How to support people to stay in the workforce for longer, e.g. by supporting healthy workplaces, supporting carers and creating flexible conditions that suit people’s needs.
How to ameliorate childcare costs and reintegrate people into the workforce following timeout for caring or a health need
The role of migration and automation in addressing major workforce gaps
Leaving no one behind: Progress on Life Course Immunisation Roundtable – alon...ILC- UK
Leaving no one behind: Progress on Life Course Immunisation Roundtable – alongside the World Health Assembly
Date: Tuesday 23 May 2023
Time: 13.00 – 14.30 (CET), followed by refreshments
Location: Geneva Press Club, Geneva, Switzerland
Global launch of the Healthy Ageing and Prevention Index alongside the 76th World Health Assembly
Date: Tuesday 23 May 2023
Time: 3.30pm – 4.30pm (CET) launch, followed by networking with refreshments
Location: Geneva Press Club, Geneva, Switzerland
G7 high-level side event in Niigata: Healthy ageing and prevention
Date: Wednesday 10 May 2023
Time: 2.00pm – 3.30pm (JST), followed by networking with refreshments
Location: Niigata, Japan
Vaccine confidence in Central and Eastern Europe working lunchILC- UK
At this exclusive working lunch, we discussed the International Longevity Centre UK’s (ILC-UK) forthcoming report on vaccine confidence in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE).
During this event, we shared the findings from our policy publication on what we think should be the priorities for the G20 in India and the key messages we want to disseminate to ministers and world leaders. We heard from experts on the opportunities and challenges to engage India and the G20 with prevention and healthy ageing and identify further opportunities to maximise our engagement while at the G20 in September.
Final Marathon or sprint launch Les Mayhew slides 19 April.pptxILC- UK
Research by the International Longevity Centre UK (ILC) funded by Bayes Business School — based on Commonwealth Games competitor records since the inaugural event in 1930 — shows large differences in the longevity of medal winners compared to people in the general population that were born in the same year. A report finds that top-level sports people can live over 5 years longer than the rest of the population.
Launching Trial and error: Supporting age diversity in clinical trialsILC- UK
During this virtual event, Esther McNamara, ILC's Senior Health Policy Lead, presents the Trial and error report’s findings and recommendations. A panel of five experts respond to the report and discuss how improved age diversity will benefit patients of all ages.
Report launch - Moving the needle: Improving uptake of adult vaccination in J...ILC- UK
Launch of the Moving the needle report, produced by ILC-UK in partnership with Stripe Partners.
This event was chaired by Dr Noriko Cable, Honorary Senior Research Fellow, Institute of Epidemiology & Health, UCL. Speakers include:
Arabella Trower, Senior Consultant, Stripe Partners
David Sinclair, Chief Executive, ILC-UK
Dr Charles Alessi, Chief Clinical Officer, éditohealth
Jason James, Director General, Daiwa Anglo-Japanese Foundation
Dr Michael Hodin, CEO, Global Coalition on Aging
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
BYD SWOT Analysis and In-Depth Insights 2024.pptxmikemetalprod
Indepth analysis of the BYD 2024
BYD (Build Your Dreams) is a Chinese automaker and battery manufacturer that has snowballed over the past two decades to become a significant player in electric vehicles and global clean energy technology.
This SWOT analysis examines BYD's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats as it competes in the fast-changing automotive and energy storage industries.
Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD started as a battery company before expanding into automobiles in the early 2000s.
Initially manufacturing gasoline-powered vehicles, BYD focused on plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, leveraging its expertise in battery technology.
Today, BYD is the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, delivering over 1.2 million electric cars globally. The company also produces electric buses, trucks, forklifts, and rail transit.
On the energy side, BYD is a major supplier of rechargeable batteries for cell phones, laptops, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems.
Exploring Abhay Bhutada’s Views After Poonawalla Fincorp’s Collaboration With...beulahfernandes8
The financial landscape in India has witnessed a significant development with the recent collaboration between Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank.
The launch of the co-branded credit card, the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card, marks a major milestone for both entities.
This strategic move aims to redefine and elevate the banking experience for customers.
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
Policy Debate: Longevity, health and public policy. How should policy-makers respond to increased longevity?
1. Longevity, health and public policy
How should policy-makers respond
to increased longevity?
Monday 22nd
July 2013
This event is kindly supported by
#LivingLonger
3. Dr Kerrigan Procter
Managing Director, Annuities
Legal & General
Welcome
This event is kindly supported by
#LivingLonger
4. Joseph Lu
Head of Longevity Risk Team
Legal & General
The facts. The impact of longevity
on UK population
This event is kindly supported by
#LivingLonger
5. Longevity – Three Key
Challenges
July 2013
5
Joseph Lu
Head of Longevity Risk Team, Legal & General
6. Life expectancy at birth for Developed Nations
(1970 to Current)
For England & Wales,
•Male life expectancy at birth has increased from 69 years (1970) to 79 years (2011)
•Female life expectancy at birth has increased from 75 years (1970) to 83 years (2011)
6
Background
Source: Human Mortality Database (www.mortality.org)
7. Life expectancy at age 65
(1970 to Current)
7
Background
Source: Human Mortality Database (www.mortality.org)
For England & Wales,
•Male life expectancy at age 65 has increased from 12 years (1970) to 18 years (2011)
•Female life expectancy at age 65 has increased from 16 years (1970) to 21 years (2011)
8. Number of people above age 65 will rise
(2013 to 2043)
8
Background
•Nearly 60% rise in next 30 years
•6.5m more people
Source: Office for National Statistics
9. 9
Challenge 1: Disability
•Of every year of increase in life expectancy…
•3 months spent with disability
Source: Figures derived from Murray et al. (2013). UK health performance: Findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.
Lancet;381(9871):997-1020
10. 10
Challenge 2: Health & Care Costs
* HMRC Survey of personal income 2010/2011 (employment income, excluding other investments)
Source: Health Economics Research Centre, University of Oxford for the Alzheimer’s Research Trust. Dementia 2010: The prevalence,
economic cost and research funding of dementia compared with other major diseases. Executive Summary.
11. 11
• 87% Final Salary pension schemes now closed.
• Defined Contribution’s 5-15% salary contribution considered insufficient.
• Our experience shows that average annuity pot size is about £30-35K,
giving about £1-3K per year of annuity depending on individuals and market
conditions.
• The minimum annual income for retired people is about £15,000 and to live
comfortable they would need more. **
• DWP – 10.7m to experience inadequate income.
Challenge 3: Pension Provision
Source: Select Committee on Public Service and Demographic Change, House of Lords. (2013). Ready for ageing? The Stationery Office Ltd.
** Joseph Rowntree Foundation.
12. 12
5x
Source: ONS House Price Index
Challenge 3: Pension Provision
*Source: Select Committee on Public Service and Demographic Change, House of Lords. (2013). Ready for ageing? The Stationery Office Ltd.
14. 14
This presentation contains confidential and proprietary information of Legal & General PLC (“L&G”). The presentation, and any
opinions on financial products it contains, may not be modified, sold, or otherwise provided, in whole or in part, to any other person or
entity without L&G's written permission.
L&G makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information in this presentation and any liability on
the part of L&G in relation to the inaccuracy or incompleteness of the information is excluded to the extent permitted by law. Nothing in
this presentation amounts to an offer, promise or advice.
15. Professor Les Mayhew
Professor of Statistics
Cass Business School and ILC-UK Advisor
Increasing Longevity – the good
news and bad
This event is kindly supported by
#LivingLonger
16. 16
Increasing longevity
– the good news and bad
Les Mayhew Cass
Business School Faculty
of Actuarial Science and
Insurance
ILC-UK Fact pack launch
July 2013
17. 17
Longevity –
Strategic issues arising
• The economy is flat but given an ageing population should
we really be surprised?
• Average health status falls in an ageing population but can
this be altered or delayed?
• Are available demographic solutions like increased
migration or fertility realistic?
• What is the economic impact of an ageing population on
GDP, productivity, economic activity rates, tax revenues,
pension age?
• To what extent might improved health expectancy
overcome the economic downsides of ageing versus other
economic levers?
• If health is an important factor what are the main threats to
health and what can be done?
18. 18
Impact of population ageing in the
labour market
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
year
ratioofpopulationaged20-64topopulation
aged65+
The dependency ratio measures the number of working age to people above
retirement age. This chart shows that the ratio turns sharply down after 2006
and will continue to fall at least until 2040 putting further pressure on
pensions.
19. 19
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
50 55 60 65 70 75
Age
Ratioofadultpopulationbelowgivenagetothe
numberabove
2010
2030
State pension age
A) Joint state
pension age
in 2010 was
62.5 years
B) State pension
age in 2030 will
be 67 years
Each curve represents
the ratio of the
population between age
20 and the age on the
horizontal axis in 2010
and 2030. For the same
ratio to apply in 2030 as
in 2010, state pension
age needs to be 67
years.
20. 20
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
50 55 60 65 70 75
Age
Ratioofadultpopulationbelowgivenagetothe
numberabove
2010
2030
Ability to work for longer?
A) Joint state
pension age
in 2010 is
62.5 years
B) State pension
age in 2030 will
be 67 years
Joint male and female
health expectancy at
birth is higher than
current pension age but
below future pension
age. Poor health in
later years will
increasingly become a
constraint on ability to
work for longer.
Health
expectancy
at birth
21. 21
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
50 55 60 65 70 75
Age
Ratioofadultpopulationbelowgivenagetothe
numberabove
2010
2030
Ability to work for longer?
A) Joint state
pension age
in 2010 is
62.5 years
B) State pension
age in 2030 will
be 67 years
Health
expectancy
at birth
Although default
retirement age
scrapped, how can
age related disability
and pressure to work
for longer be
reconciled?
22. 22
Influences on labour market participation
among people aged 50- 59 and 60-69
The biggest single factor predicting whether economically active or not is your
health. Male cohabiting home owners with no caring responsibilities are also
predictive of economic activity. Post-60 these factors weaken as people retire
but good health remains the most influential of these factors (data source:
ELSA)
factor or influence
age 50-
59
age 60-
69
education 1.5 0.7
good health 5.2 2.7
no caring responsibilities 1.5 1.3
home owner 2.2 1.3
cohabiting 1.3 1.3
male 1.6 1.9
23. 23
How did we get here and where are
we heading?
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
yearlifeexpectancyatbirth
Japanese
females in 2009:
at birth 86.4 yrs
UK males and
females:
at birth 80.3
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
age
numberofsurvivors
1950
2010
The left hand panel shows how the chances of survival in 1950 compared
with 2010 have improved significantly. In the right hand panel life
expectancy has been extrapolated to show how the trend is expected to
develop over the next decades, flattening off towards the end of the
century.
Flattens
off here
24. 24
Changes to the modal age of death
between 1980 and 2010
Postponement of death is reflected in changes to the modal age of death in
1980 was 76 years and in 2010 89 years. By 2030 it will be 93 years. Trend
data show that annual number of deaths has fallen steadily since the 1970s
from around 680k to 550k, so is death a dying business?
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
age
numberofdeaths
1980
2010
Modal age of death was 76 in
1980 and 89 in 2010. By
2030 it will be 93
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
year
annualnumberofdeaths
25. 25
Gender differences in life expectancy at
age 30
The gender gap in life expectancy at age 30 is closing ~ 5.7 years in 1970
(A) compared with 3.8 years in 2009 (B). If extrapolated trend lines
converge around 2030.
35
40
45
50
55
60
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
year
lifeexpectancyat30
Females
Males
A
B
A major factor has been
changes in male
occupation and the
falling prevalence of
smoking. E.g. in 1948
80% of males smoked.
Today only it is about
21% - approximately the
same as for women.
26. 26
Estimating the economic impacts of
improvements in health
As state retirement age shifts right so a higher proportion of people will not be fit to work but
neither will they be eligible for the state pension. In general if life expectancy increases faster
than healthy life expectancy grey area grows in size. The larger it is the greater are health and
social care costs, benefit spend and lost productivity. Meanwhile the survival frontier is
moving to the right.
healthy
dead
Sick
disabled
State pension
age
Chronic disease fills
much of this space
especially in older
adults whilst co-
morbidity – the co-
presence of more
than one chronic
disease- increases
with age. Dementia is
a problem in the
oldest old
27. 27
Estimating the economic impacts of
improvements in health
As state retirement age shifts right so a higher proportion of people will not be fit to work but
neither will they be eligible for the state pension. In general if life expectancy increases faster
than healthy life expectancy grey area grows in size. The larger it is the greater are health and
social care costs, benefit spend and lost productivity.
healthy
dead
Sick
disabled
State pension
age
28. 28
Expected life
=
expected healthy working life + expected unhealthy working life + expected healthy
retired life + expected unhealthy retired life
Uses following identity:
Assumptions
• Those of working age will either work (and receive a wage) or are
economically inactive
• Unhealthy lives receive health & social care and benefits as per
current benefit rules
• All retirees receive basic state pension
• The economically inactive population is in caring roles, unpaid work,
full time education or in leisure
Macro economic model
overview
29. 29
Model overview
LE & HLE
Sick/disabled
population
Economically
active population
GDP, GDP p. capita
Demography
Activity rate
Health trends
Wage
productivity
Public
expenditure
on health and
welfare
Tax rate
Net income
from work
Non-wage
GDP
(dividends,
rents,
royalties etc)
Income from work
Benefits &
pensions
30. 30
Sensitivity analysis
– changes in one variable at a time
Effect of a 1 year increase in life expectancy or health or a 1% increase in wage
productivity, pensions, benefits or population variables on GDP and average tax
rates. Increases to healthy working life have the greatest effect on GDP and
reducing taxes.
quantity
GDP %
change
difference in
tax rate (%)
life expectancy increases 1 year -1.6 1.7
healthy working life increases 1 year 2.7 -2.6
healthy retired life increases 1 year 0 -0.7
participation rate increases 1% 1.6 -0.5
wage productivity increases 1% 1 -0.3
pension increases 1% 0 0.2
benefits in retirement increases 1% 0 0.03
benefits in working age increases 1% 0 0.1
population increases 1% 1 0
31. 31
Where are health improvements
going to come from?
We can
• Reform health care
• Make changes to life styles
• Improve the economy
32. 32
Where are health improvements
going to come from?
Reform health care
• Changes in healthcare delivery
• Re-balancing of priorities
• More emphasis on prevention
• Changes to end of life care
33. 33
Where are health improvements
going to come from?
Make changes in life styles
• Diet
• Exercise
• Safer work places
• Smoking cessation
34. 34
Relationship between gap in life expectancy and
gender difference in smoking prevalence
y = 0.1899x + 3.5448
R2
= 0.7489
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
prevalence gap (%)
LEgap(years)
Sources: HMD and World Health
Organisation Tobacco Free Initiative, 2011
Ukraine
England
& Wales
France
Japan
Sweden
35. 35
Where are the health
improvements going to come from?
Improve the economy
• Increase GDP
• Reduce health inequalities
36. 36
Source: Cass Business School/ILC-UK Key:
A Using value of home or other
assets
B Disability Linked Annuities
C Insurance products
D Personal Care Savings Bonds
£0 £5000 £10,000 15,000 £20,000 £25,000 £30,000
Net income p.a.
£250k
£225k
£200k
£175k
£150k
£125k
£100k
£75k
£50k
£25k
£0k
Assets
S
e
l
f
-
f
u
n
d
e
r
s
Paying for social care
B
D
Personal Care Savings Bonds
– a new way of saving towards
social care in later life
Les Mayhew and David Smith
June 2013
08Fall
C
A
37. 37
Longevity – So is it good news or
bad?
• Good news is that we are all living longer but longevity
needs to be managed to protect living standards
• Not to do so will increase taxes, squeeze public expenditure
and pensions and increase immigration pressures
• Although higher population means greater GDP it does not
mean higher living standards
• We need to recalibrate our approach to health care – the
importance of prevention and how health care is delivered
• The bad news is that the demand for social care will increase
and this has to be paid for from our own resources
• An ‘active ageing scenario’ helps to mitigate these problems
by enabling people to work longer in better health
39. 39
References (1)
Mayhew, L. and D,Smith (2013) Personal Care Savings Bonds - a new way of saving towards social care in
later life. ILC-UK. http://www.ilcuk.org.uk/images/uploads/publication-
pdfs/Personal_Care_Savings_Bonds.pdf
Mayhew L.D., D.Smith (2013 Under review), 'Gender convergence in life expectancy and the postponement
of death',
Mayhew, L. and B. Rickayzen (2012) The ageing population: Crunch time for Government reforms. Economic
Affairs Vol 32(2), 96-100
Mayhew, L. (2012) The UK Care Economy – Improving outcomes for carers. Published by Carers UK.
https://www.carersuk.org/professionals/resources/research-library/item/2837-the-uk-care-economy-
improving-outcomes-for-carers
Mayhew, L. and D. Smith (2011) Human survival at older ages and the
implications for longevity bond pricing. The North American Actuarial Journal (NAAJ)–Vol 15(2).
http://www.soa.org/library/journals/north-american-actuarial-journal/2011/no-2/naaj-2011-vol15-no2.aspx
Mayhew, L., M. Karlsson, and B. Ricklayzen, B. (2010) The Role of Private Finance in Paying for Long Term
Care. The Economic Journal, Vol 120, Issue 548, F478–F504, November 2010.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02388.x/pdf
Mayhew, L. (2009) On the effectiveness of care co-ordination services aimed at preventing hospital
admissions and emergency attendances. Health Care Management Science. Vol 12(3), 269-284, DOI
10.1007/s10729-008-9092-5.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2713026/pdf/10729_2008_Article_9092.pdf
Mayhew, L. (2009) Increasing Longevity and the economic value of healthy ageing and working longer.
Commissioned report for HMG Cabinet Office Strategy Unit.
http://www.hmg.gov.uk/media/33715/economicsofageing.pdf
40. 40
References (2)
Mayhew, L., J. Richardson, B. Rickayzen (2009) A study into the detrimental effects of obesity on life expectancy
in the UK. Actuarial Research paper, Cass Business School.
Karlsson, M., L. Mayhew, B. Rickayzen (2008), In Sickness and in Health? Dynamics of Health, Cohabitation in
United Kingdom. In Sandra Dawson and Zoë Slote Morris (ed.), Future Public Health: Burdens, Challenges and
Opportunities, Cambridge: Palgrave Macmillan, ISBN 9780230013599.
Karlsson, M., L. Mayhew, B. Rickayzen (2008), In Sickness and in Health? Dynamics of Health, Cohabitation in
United Kingdom. In Sandra Dawson and Zoë Slote Morris (ed.), Future Public Health: Burdens, Challenges and
Opportunities, Cambridge: Palgrave Macmillan, ISBN 9780230013599.
Mayhew, L., and D. Smith (2008), Using queuing theory to analyse the Government’s 4-h completion time target
in Accident and Emergency departments. Health Care Management Science, 11(1), 11-21
Karlsson, M., L. Mayhew, B. Rickayzen (2007), Long term care financing in 4 OECD countries: fiscal burden and
distributive effects. Health Policy, 80(1), 107-134
Mayhew, L. and D. Blake (2006) On The Sustainability of the UK State Pension System in the Light of Population
Ageing and Declining Fertility. Economic Journal, 116(512), F286-F305
Karlsson, M., L. Mayhew, R. Plumb., and B. Rickayzen. (2006) Future costs for long-term care: Cost projections
for long-term care for older people in the United Kingdom. Health Policy, 75(2), 187-213
Mayhew L., Alder, J., Moody, S., Morris, R., Shah, R. (2005) The chronic disease burden – An analysis of health
risks and health care usage. Cass Business School London, Special Report, 56pp
http://www.sias.org.uk/siaspapers/search/view_paper?id=Chronic
McKellar, L., D. Horlacher, T. Ermoliev, and L. Mayhew (2004) The Economic Impacts of Population Ageing in
Japan. Edward Elgar Publishing , ISBN 978-1843763604
Mayhew, L. (2003) Disability-Global Trends and International Perspectives. Innovation: The European Journal of
Social Science Research. 16(1), 3-28
41. Professor Michael Murphy
Professor of Demography
London School of Economics
Healthy ageing: an international
perspective
This event is kindly supported by
#LivingLonger
42. Healthy ageing: an internationalHealthy ageing: an international
perspectiveperspective
Mike Murphy, London School of Economics
Prepared for Policy Debate: Longevity, health and
public policy. How should policy-makers respond
to increased longevity?, Monday, 22nd July 2013
43. Britain in EuropeBritain in Europe
• The British population is growing more
rapidly than in many EU countries. Between
2001 and 2011, the population of England
and Wales grew by 7.3% compared with
3.5% in EU-27 (excluding UK). Population
growth is also accelerating; an increase of
3.8 million compared with 1.6 million in the
previous decade 1991-2001.
44. Main trends among olderMain trends among older
peoplepeople
Year
2011 2021 2031 2041
Both sexes (000s)
50 & over 11,693 13,584 14,753 16,070
65 & over 5,862 7,001 8,544 9,631
85 & over 970 1,211 1,694 2,273
All ages 31,833 34,110 36,093 37,794
Support ratioa 3.93 3.29 2.76 2.53
M:F 85 & overb 49.6 62.5 70.0 72.3
Source: ONS Population projections 2010-based.
Notes: a
Number of persons aged 15-64 for each person aged 65 & over.
b
Number of males per 100 females aged 85 and over.
45. Years of life expectancy gained byYears of life expectancy gained by
age in subsequent decade, Englandage in subsequent decade, England
and Wales, based on ONS dataand Wales, based on ONS data
MalesMales FemalesFemales
46. Successful agingSuccessful aging
• “avoidance of disease and disability, maintenance
of high physical and cognitive function, and
sustained engagement in social and productive
activities” (Rowe and Kahn 1997, p. 439).
• The World Health Organization (WHO) defines active
ageing as “. . . the process of optimizing
opportunities for health, participation, and security
in order to enhance quality of life as people age”
o participation,
o health
o security
47. Health statusHealth status
• Improvements in mortality have not been
matched by corresponding improvements in
health status. Although the evidence is more
mixed and forecasts even more difficult to
make than in the case of mortality, there is
little indication of improvements in health
comparable to those of about 3% per
annum observed for mortality.
48. Health needsHealth needs
• The additional years of life gained are
concentrated at older ages, where
prevalence of degenerative diseases such as
dementias affects a high fraction of the
population. On balance, the likelihood is that
number of years spent in good health will
increase over time, but it less clear whether
the number of years and the proportion of
remaining life spent in poor health or with
disabilities will increase or decrease
(Wanless, 2002).
49. Leading causes of death by sex inLeading causes of death by sex in
2011 & 2001, England and Wales2011 & 2001, England and Wales
50. 2012 European Year for2012 European Year for
Active Ageing and SolidarityActive Ageing and Solidarity
between Generationsbetween Generations
51. Healthy Life Years at birthHealthy Life Years at birth
in 2010in 2010
Jagger et al. 2013. Mind the gap—reaching the European target of a 2-year increase in healthy life years in the
next decade. European Journal of Public Health, 1–5
52. EmploymentEmployment
• The number of people of state pension age and
above in employment has nearly doubled over the
past two decades, from 750 thousand in 1993 to 1.4
million in 2011. Older workers are more likely to be
self-employed than younger workers and around
two-thirds are part-time usually with the same
employer. Men working later in life tend to be in
higher skill jobs, while the reverse is true for women.
53. ParticipationParticipation
• Reduced mortality especially among men has
increased the proportion of older people who
remain married and reduced the proportion of
women who are widowed.
• Trends are also affected by the marital histories;
those born in the 1940s had the highest rates of
marriage ever experienced.
• These cohorts are also more likely to have children
as potential informal carers. However, this
favourable trend will reverse as those born in the
1960s enter the older age bands – implications for
informal care.
54. Feeling lonely: by age group andFeeling lonely: by age group and
sex, 2009–10 Englandsex, 2009–10 England
Measuring National Well-being - Older people and loneliness, 2013
Jen Beaumont Office for National Statistics
55. Social CareSocial Care
• Many of those in very poor health will require long-
term care institutional care, especially those
suffering from Alzheimer’s disease, which is a major
driver of demand.
• About 300 thousand people, 4.5% of those aged 65
and over, in England in 2010 were living in care
homes; a further one million were receiving formal
community care and two million receiving informal
care (Commission on Funding of Care and Support,
2012, Vol. II).
56. Inequalities: Period lifeInequalities: Period life
expectancy for men at 65: by NS-expectancy for men at 65: by NS-
SEC, 1982 to 2006SEC, 1982 to 2006
Source: Longitudinal Study, Office for National Statistics
NS-SEC Period Increase
1982-86 2002-06 Years Per
cent
1 Higher managerial and professional 15.2 18.8 3.6 23.7
2 Lower managerial and professional 15.1 18.2 3.1 20.5
3 Intermediate 13.9 17.5 3.6 25.9
4 Small employers and own account
workers
14.0 17.5 3.5 25.0
5 Lower supervisory and technical 13.4 16.4 3.0 22.4
6 Semi routine 12.9 15.6 2.7 20.9
7 Routine 12.9 15.3 2.4 18.6
57. Conclusions: Some implicationsConclusions: Some implications
for the Twentieth-first centuryfor the Twentieth-first century
Some encouraging signs in health status, but even so highly likely
there will be an absolute increase in years spent in poor health
and possibly, the proportion also
Older people's perceptions of health status are often more
optimistic than “objective” measures
Although “healthy ageing” and “well-being” are on the political
agenda, actions so far have been limited
Need to acknowledge:
shifts from acute to social care
changing patterns of chronic disease
average age of those needing acute and social care will
increase
“Tipping point” for availability of informal care will occur in near
future.
58. References and sourcesReferences and sources
• Age UK. various. Later Life in the United Kingdom, available at http://www.ageuk.org.uk/Documents/EN-
GB/Factsheets/Later_Life_UK_factsheet.pdf?dtrk=true
• Banks, James, James Nazroo, Andrew Steptoe. 2012. The Dynamics of Ageing: Evidence from the English
Longitudinal Study of Ageing 2002-10 (Wave 5), available at http://www.ifs.org.uk/ELSA/reportWave5
• Commission on Funding of Care and Support. 2012. Fairer Care Funding: The Report of the Commission on
Funding of Care and Support (3 Volumes) “The Dilnot Commission”, available at
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20130221130239/http:/dilnotcommission.dh.gov.uk/
• Hills, John. 2010. An Anatomy of Economic Inequality in the UK - Report of the National Equality Panel. CASE
report No. 60 http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/dps/case/cr/CASEreport60.pdf
• House of Lords Select Committee on Public Service and Demographic Change. 2013. Ready for Ageing? Select
Committee on Public Service and Demographic Change Report of Session 2012–13 Report, available at
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201213/ldselect/ldpublic/140/140.pdf
• ILC-UK. 2013 . Ageing, longevity and demographic change, available at
http://www.ilcuk.org.uk/index.php/publications
• Marmot, M et al. 2010. Fair Society Healthy Lives (The Marmot Review). Strategic review of health inequalities in
England post-2010, available at http://www.instituteofhealthequity.org/projects/fair-society-healthy-lives-the-
marmot-review
• Office for Budget responsibility. 2013. Fiscal sustainability report – July 2013 available at
http://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/fiscal-sustainability-report-july-2013/
• Pensions Commission. 2005. A New Pension Settlement for the Twenty-First Century. The Second Report of the
Pensions Commission, available at http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/
+/http:/www.dwp.gov.uk/publications/dwp/2005/pensionscommreport/main-report.pdf
• Sweiry, Daniel and Maxine Willitts. 2012 Attitudes to age in Britain 2010/11. Department for Work and Pensions. In-
House Research No 7, available at http://research.dwp.gov.uk/asd/asd5/ih2011-2012/ihr7.pdf
59. Tim Gosden
Head of Strategy for Individual Annuities
Legal & General
Role of the financial service
industry in tackling the challenges
This event is kindly supported by
#LivingLonger
60. Role of the Industry in
tackling the challenges
July 2013
60
Tim Gosden, Legal & General
Head of Strategy, Pension Annuities
61. Key Issues
61
DC pension provision
Underestimating life expectancy
Income in retirement
Phased/deferred retirement
Role of the industry
62. DC pensions
62
87% Final Salary pension schemes now closed
Defined Contribution’s 5-15% salary contribution
2012 average UK pension pot to buy an annuity was
£33,000* (best income £1,900 per annum)
Q1 2013 - 80% of pension pots below £50,000*
Fund to purchase maximum basic state pension
£110pw = £190,000
97% of Legal & General pension annuities are level
with no inflation proofing
*Source ABI statistics
63. Life expectancy
63
Men aged 50-60 underestimate life expectancy by
two years, while women underestimate by four
years*
ONS male aged 65, life expectancy 83.2, female
85.8**
Legal & General estimate for a 65 year old DC
member shopping around is on average to age 90
DC members, live on average 25 years in retirement
* Institute of Fiscal Studies
**ONS Interim Life Tables 2009 – 2011 England and Wales
64. Income in Retirement
64
Average UK working income £19,600pa*
Average UK retirement income (private and state)
£11,600pa*
Average income people would feel comfortable
living on at 70 years-old is £25,200** (cost circa
£500,000)
1 in 5 saving nothing at all and 1 in 5 retiring with
debts averaging £20,300**
The situation may only get worse
*HMRC Survey of personal incomes 2010/2011 (employment incomes,
excludes other investments)
** Scottish Widows 2013 UK Pensions Report
65. Phased/Deferred Retirement
65
Annuity and Drawdown Contracts sold
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Annuity
Drawdown
Source: ABI statistics
66. Retirement at 70 will be the 'new
norm'
66
“For a whole generation in their forties and fifties
now, it is probably already too late. They are going
to have to work to 70 or beyond before they can
afford to retire.
For people in their twenties and thirties, there is still
time to make a significant difference, but only if they
can be persuaded to engage with their retirement
savings.”
Tom McPhail, Hargreaves Lansdown. Telegraph, June 2013
67. Sting in the Tail
67
Healthy, 32%
Circulatory
diseases, 10%
Other circulatory
diseases&
diabetes, 21%
Co-morbid
diseases, 6%
Neurological
diseases;
MRSA; Arthritis,
15%
Cancer (incld.
Benign
neoplasm), 7%
Respiratory
diseases, 4% Other,
5%
For men aged 60-69, only 32% healthy*
Care funding in later life on average £750pw nursing home fees**
*Preliminary analysis performed by Legal & General using data from the General Practice Research Database. Data includes >1.5m patients registered
with a general practice surgery in England (2007). Diseases examined include stroke, IHD, lung, colo-rectal and/or prostate cancer, Alzheimer’s disease
etc. **Laing & Buisson care of elderly people market survey
68. Role of the industry
68
Education and awareness for all age groups
•Explain retirement and the stark realities we all face.
•Tell people the target minimum retirement income they need
•Reinforce the need for young people to act now and start saving
•Encourage more people to shop around for their retirement income
•Explain the benefits of annuities
More flexible regulations to make better use of existing assets
•More flexible income drawdown and annuity regulations so there is access to
available assets for terminal illness/care funding
•Additional tax incentives
•Funds passing down generations
•Improved product design
Improve access to regulated professional advice
•Clearer sign posting to enable access to specialist retirement advice
69. Money isn’t everything!
69
Sardinia, Nuoro Province
‘Blue Zone’ where people live longer and happier lives
than anywhere else.
Nearly10 times the number of centenarians per 1000
people than US.
70. 70
This presentation contains confidential and proprietary information of Legal & General PLC (“L&G”). The presentation, and any
opinions on financial products it contains, may not be modified, sold, or otherwise provided, in whole or in part, to any other person or
entity without L&G's written permission.
L&G makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information in this presentation and any liability on
the part of L&G in relation to the inaccuracy or incompleteness of the information is excluded to the extent permitted by law. Nothing in
this presentation amounts to an offer, promise or advice.
71. Panel Debate and Q&A
Panellist
David Sinclair
Assistant Director, Policy and Communications
ILC-UK
This event is kindly supported by
#LivingLonger
72. Longevity, health and public policy
How should policy-makers respond
to increased longevity?
Monday 22nd
July 2013
This event is kindly supported by
#LivingLonger
Editor's Notes
This slide demonstrates the smoking issue very well. Here I have plotted the gap in life expectancy of males and females against the difference in smoking prevalence in each country.
As Joseph has already pointed out DB schemes, which were the mainstay of UK private pension provision are an endangered species. 87% are now closed to new members and over the next 5 years half of those left are expected to close. DC schemes are an inferior form of pension provision and most people are not funding anywhere near enough. Old saying take your age and divide by 2 and that’s the percentage you should be putting away each year. Added to that annuity rates haven’t been great in recent year although this year we are seeing an improvements. Last year the average pot was £33k and that would have purchased a standard annuity of £1,900 just enough to pay for you utilities. 20% less than you would have five years ago. In Q1 this were 89% were below £50,000 and while some people have more than one pot , many do not that’s it. Just to bring it home the fund required to purchase the the maximum basic pension would be roughly £190,000 for a 65 year old. Finally few people protect their pension against inflation simply because of the cost of doing so. Purchasing an RPI linked annuity would reduce the starting income by approximately 40%.
The other issue is life expectancy because this has led to criticism of annuities being poor value for money. An annuity provides a guaranteed income for life and people look at the income provided for a given fund and judge the value on their perception of how long they will live. And many people seriously underestimate their own mortality ONS stats predict a males aged 65 could live to 83.2 male, female 85.8. Bu the ONS looks at the population as a whole whereas the population that save for a pension and then shop around for an annuity are a subset and exhibit different mortality. L&G estimate for a 65 year old would be to age 90 So while ONS would predict 18.2 years in retirement for a 65 year old male we would predict 25 years, that is a significant difference.
The bottom line is how much people have to live on: So HMRC survey indicates an average working wage of £19,600 an retirement income of £11,600 including state and private provision. 40% less. What people would feel comfortable living on at age 70 according to a Scottish Widows survey is £25,200, more than double what they are actually getting. Just to re emphasis the cost of a pension of £25,200 for a 65 year old allowing for basic state pension would be around £500,000 On top fop that we’ve got on in 5 not saving and people now retiring with debts averaging £20,300, probably the same lot. You can only see this getting worse.
How does all this translate into what is going on in the annuity market. Graph looks at annuity contracts sold since 2008 and what we’ve seen is a gradual decline with a bit of a jump in sales in 2012 which as a surge in sales we think caused by gender equalisation. Anecdotal evidence from our distributors and own customers indicates that many consumer are deferring their retirement and continuing to work or phasing it in over a period of time i.e. taking some income and reducing there working week. A lot of people can’t afford to retire
And if you look at the press coverage 70 will be the new norm but that brings with it another set of issues.
Legal & General’s believes that only 32% of the male population was healthy at ages 60-69; so an ageing workforce brings with it challenges in the workplace and there the fact that the income requirement in retirement is U shaped, you need a lot of money up front to make the most of their active years, then go through a dormant stage and the normally in the eighties may end up requiring care where expenditure increases. So we have some issues! And the question is what can the FS industry do about it!
I think a key role for us to try and educate consumers about retirement because it is almost another life we all need to prepare for. I think many consumer also have no idea how what minimum income they will need and they need some guidance here. People also need a target to aim for. My one my mountain biking friends announced to me gleefully that he had £250,000 in his stakeholder and his plans to retirement in his late 50s. No idea of how much income that would generate. More flexible regs - house and pension are normally biggest asset, equity release for house so maybe we need to better cases to pension later on in life.
Final slide Money isn’t everything Sardinia collection of villages where they live longer and happier lives Simple lifestyle, mostly shepherds, very family orientated, look after each other, little or no stress, don’t go short, plenty of exercise and a healthy diet. Maybe we’ve got a lot to learn!