The document summarizes two projects related to conservation and climate change in Hawaii. The first project evaluates the vulnerability of all native Hawaiian plant species to climate change using landscape-based modeling of species' climate envelopes and projected habitat shifts. Some species are projected to lose all suitable climate space by 2100. The second project models changes in dominant vegetation composition across Hawaii driven by climate variables, using over 145,000 vegetation plot records. Preliminary results project shifts in abundance of key native species like Metrosideros polymorpha under climate change. Both projects aim to inform conservation planning and resource management in Hawaii.

1. 1
Conservation and Climate
Change
Patrick Grady
GIS/Data Manager
PICCC/PICSC
patrick.grady@piccc.net
(808) 687-6175
www.piccc.net
www.tinyurl.com/PacificCSC

2. PICSC/PICCC PROJECT: A Landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for all
native Hawaiian plants
AGENCIES: Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative (PICCC); University of Hawaiʻi at
Hilo (UHH); U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); U.S Fish & Wildlife Service
(USFWS); Hawaiʻi Cooperative Studies Unit (HCSU); The Nature Conservancy
(TNC); United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
PRINCIPAL
INVESTIGATOR: Lucas Fortini (PICCC,USGS)
WORKING GROUP: Jonathan Price (UHH); Jim Jacobi (USGS); Adam Vorsino (USFWS); Jeff Burgett
(PICCC,USFWS); Kevin Brinck (HCSU); Fred Amidon (USFWS); Steve Miller
(USFWS); Sam `Ohukani`ohi`a Gon III (TNC); Gregory Koob (USDA); Eben Paxton
(USGS)

3. Hawaii a center of plant
endangerment and extinction
• 110 historical plant extinctions
• ~300 of 1100 native plants threatened/ endangered
– 37% of all endangered plant species in US
• 201 species having fewer than 50 known individuals
Source: http://hawaii.gov/dlnr/dofaw/rpc/pep-program
3

4. Hawaiian native plant vulnerability
assessment (VA)
• Goal: Evaluate the vulnerability of Main Hawaiian Island
terrestrial plant species to climate change
– All Main Hawaiian Island terrestrial native plants
(~1100) are initially considered
• Iterative process
– First iteration a landscape based analysis
– Resulting framework potentially applied to other
species groups, other resource types
4

5. Tetraplasandra hawaiensis
('Ohe)
5

6. Current climate envelope

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Future* (2100) climate envelope
*Using temperature
(MAT) and
precipitation
projections (MAP)
based on A1B
emission scenario

8. Response zones

9. Range shifts (2000 to 2100) and
vulnerability
9

10. 55 species have no climate compatible
area left by 2100
10
Chamaesyce rockii
(Akoko)

11. Chamaesyce rockii
(Akoko)

12. Landscape-based results for habitat
prioritization
‘Warmer’ colored areas are where more native plant
species are likely to suffer range loss
12
More
species
Less
species

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Hawai’i Akepa
SPECIES DISTRIBUTION SHIFTS
BY 2100

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SPECIES DISTRIBUTION SHIFTS
BY 2100
Maui Parrotbill

15. PICSC/PICCC PROJECT: Modeling climate-driven changes to dominant vegetation in the
Hawaiian Islands
AGENCIES: Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PICSC); Pacific Islands Climate
Change Cooperative (PICCC); University of Hawaiʻi at Hilo (UHH); U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS); University of Hawaiiʻi at Mānoa (UHM);
International Pacific Research Center (IPRC); NOAA
PRINCIPAL
INVESTIGATORS: Jonathan Price (UHH); Jim Jacobi (USGS)
RESEARCHER: Tamara M. Wong (UHH)
WORKING GROUP: Tom Giambelluca (UHM); Lucas Fortini (PICCC, USGS), Oliver Elison Timm
(University of Albany); Henry Diaz (NOAA); Michael Samuel (USGS); Carter
Atkinson (USGS); Dennis Lapointe (USGS)

16. Modeling climate-driven changes to
dominant vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands
• The goal of this study is to utilize a vast array of quantitative
vegetation plot data to model dominant vegetation composition.
• Hawaiian vegetation is unusual in that most ecologically important
species occur consistently across a wide range of physical
environments, but vary greatly in local abundance, largely driven by
climate.
• Changes in climate could also alter species' abundance, capacity to
persist within predicted ranges, and compete for local regeneration
sites.
• Uses predictive species distribution modeling (SDM) as it is an
important tool in addressing conservation biology and global change
issues.
• Whereas explicit spatial habitat models typically predict probability of
occurrence, this project aims to generate species-specific models of
estimated percent cover based in relation to several independent
variables (precipitation, temperature, substrate age, etc.).

17. • Has compiled 145,000 vegetation data records for over 4,000
locations into a relational database in MS Access.
• These sites represent a considerable proportion of the overall
climate variability in Hawaiʻi.
• Novel correlative species abundance models were generated using
powerful nonlinear statistical methods, quantitative vegetation plot
data, functionally relevant environmental variables, and downscaled
climate models
• Aimed to identify trends and predicted future shifts in key native
plant species in the Hawaiian Islands.
• As projecting species-specific abundance changes can complement
and improve predictive mapping of habitat quality, inform the
prioritization of habitat conservation and restoration efforts for
resource managers, and support ecological resilience in the future.
Modeling climate-driven changes to
dominant vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands

18. Climate variable model example: Mean temperature of warmest quarter baseline
Source: Hamilton et al. 2013 (IPRC HRCM models), Zhang et al. 2012, PRISM

19. Hawai'i Island example of current vegetation plots

20. Preliminary Metrosideros polymorpha (ohia lehua) baseline abundance projection

21. 21
Conservation and Climate
Change
Patrick Grady
GIS/Data Manager
PICCC/PICSC
patrick.grady@piccc.net
(808) 687-6175
www.piccc.net
www.tinyurl.com/PacificCSC