This document outlines a study that developed a model to analyze the short and long-term impacts of climate change on worldwide wheat prices. The model is composed of 6 sub-models, each analyzing a major wheat exporting country/region. The study aims to quantify the impact of factors such as stock levels, oil prices, production costs, exchange rates, and drought on wheat prices and output in these regions. The document discusses the study's motivation, model, results, and conclusions.
The study evaluated the effect of mean temperature, solar radiation, and photothermal quotient (PTQ) at anthesis and maturity stages of wheat grown under different environmental conditions provided by varying planting windows. Regression models were developed relating climate variables (temperature, radiation, PTQ) to wheat yield parameters (grains per square meter, grain weight, yield). Results showed temperature and PTQ at anthesis had direct relationships with yield parameters, while temperature at maturity had inverse relationships. Solar radiation at anthesis and maturity also had direct relationships with yield parameters. PTQ, representing the combined effect of temperature and radiation, had the strongest direct relationships with all yield parameters. This confirms PTQ is a key determinant of wheat yield under varying environmental conditions
11.[1 13]adoption of modern agricultural production technologies by farm hous...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examined factors influencing farm households' adoption of modern agricultural production technologies in Ghana. The study utilized a logit model to analyze survey data from 300 farmers in Bawku West District. The results showed that farm size, expected benefits from technology adoption, access to credit, and access to extension services significantly influenced farmers' technology adoption decisions. The document concludes that farm households' technology adoption depends on their socioeconomic circumstances and the effectiveness of institutions. It recommends policies to leverage factors that positively influence adoption and mitigate negative factors to improve agricultural productivity.
Crop farmers' knowledge level of climate change in ilorin east local governme...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examined crop farmers' knowledge level of climate change in Ilorin East Local Government Area of Nigeria. It found that most farmers were between 41-60 years old and married, with over half having no formal education. While farmers had knowledge of various climate change effects, the study found that 68.6% of farmers had a low knowledge level of climate change. Factors like age, marital status, and farming as the primary occupation were found to positively correlate with higher knowledge levels. The study recommends providing training to farmers and increasing efforts by governmental and non-governmental organizations to raise awareness of climate change issues among farmers.
Effect of planting dates on the performance of pigeonpea varieties in souther...Alexander Decker
- The document reports on a study that investigated the effect of planting date on the performance of six pigeonpea varieties in Southern Guinea Savanna ecology of Nigeria over two years.
- Planting was done in May, June, and July, and parameters such as plant height, number of pods, and yield components were measured.
- Results showed that plant height, fruit-bearing length, and number of pods decreased from May to July planting dates for most varieties. However, some varieties like ICPL88039 showed inconsistent responses.
- Variety x planting date interaction was significant, indicating varieties performed best at different planting times. For example, ICPL84060 and the local variety yielded more in May planting
This report identifies areas vulnerable to future climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics. It analyzes maps of climate change exposure thresholds and food security indicators to identify hotspots. Nine vulnerability domains are established based on exposure, sensitivity, and coping capacity. The most vulnerable domain has high exposure, high sensitivity, and low coping capacity. This analysis finds large areas of Africa, South Asia, and parts of Central and South America fall into this highly vulnerable category for several climate change exposures. The choice of exposure indicator influences the size and location of vulnerable populations.
Strategic management of climate change challenges to crop and livestock produ...Alexander Decker
This document discusses strategic management of climate change challenges to crop and livestock production in Southern Nigeria. It begins by providing background on climate change and its negative impacts on agriculture, including reduced crop yields and livestock income. It then presents a literature review on adaptation strategies for agriculture, such as adopting drought/heat resistant crops and breeds.
The study aims to identify the weaknesses/threats and strengths/opportunities of climate change challenges for crop and livestock production using SWOT analysis. It describes the research design and sample, which includes 266 crop farmers, 266 livestock farmers, and 78 agricultural extension agents surveyed. The results will help recommend strategies for farmers and researchers to better manage climate change impacts on agriculture.
The study evaluated the effect of mean temperature, solar radiation, and photothermal quotient (PTQ) at anthesis and maturity stages of wheat grown under different environmental conditions provided by varying planting windows. Regression models were developed relating climate variables (temperature, radiation, PTQ) to wheat yield parameters (grains per square meter, grain weight, yield). Results showed temperature and PTQ at anthesis had direct relationships with yield parameters, while temperature at maturity had inverse relationships. Solar radiation at anthesis and maturity also had direct relationships with yield parameters. PTQ, representing the combined effect of temperature and radiation, had the strongest direct relationships with all yield parameters. This confirms PTQ is a key determinant of wheat yield under varying environmental conditions
11.[1 13]adoption of modern agricultural production technologies by farm hous...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examined factors influencing farm households' adoption of modern agricultural production technologies in Ghana. The study utilized a logit model to analyze survey data from 300 farmers in Bawku West District. The results showed that farm size, expected benefits from technology adoption, access to credit, and access to extension services significantly influenced farmers' technology adoption decisions. The document concludes that farm households' technology adoption depends on their socioeconomic circumstances and the effectiveness of institutions. It recommends policies to leverage factors that positively influence adoption and mitigate negative factors to improve agricultural productivity.
Crop farmers' knowledge level of climate change in ilorin east local governme...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examined crop farmers' knowledge level of climate change in Ilorin East Local Government Area of Nigeria. It found that most farmers were between 41-60 years old and married, with over half having no formal education. While farmers had knowledge of various climate change effects, the study found that 68.6% of farmers had a low knowledge level of climate change. Factors like age, marital status, and farming as the primary occupation were found to positively correlate with higher knowledge levels. The study recommends providing training to farmers and increasing efforts by governmental and non-governmental organizations to raise awareness of climate change issues among farmers.
Effect of planting dates on the performance of pigeonpea varieties in souther...Alexander Decker
- The document reports on a study that investigated the effect of planting date on the performance of six pigeonpea varieties in Southern Guinea Savanna ecology of Nigeria over two years.
- Planting was done in May, June, and July, and parameters such as plant height, number of pods, and yield components were measured.
- Results showed that plant height, fruit-bearing length, and number of pods decreased from May to July planting dates for most varieties. However, some varieties like ICPL88039 showed inconsistent responses.
- Variety x planting date interaction was significant, indicating varieties performed best at different planting times. For example, ICPL84060 and the local variety yielded more in May planting
This report identifies areas vulnerable to future climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics. It analyzes maps of climate change exposure thresholds and food security indicators to identify hotspots. Nine vulnerability domains are established based on exposure, sensitivity, and coping capacity. The most vulnerable domain has high exposure, high sensitivity, and low coping capacity. This analysis finds large areas of Africa, South Asia, and parts of Central and South America fall into this highly vulnerable category for several climate change exposures. The choice of exposure indicator influences the size and location of vulnerable populations.
Strategic management of climate change challenges to crop and livestock produ...Alexander Decker
This document discusses strategic management of climate change challenges to crop and livestock production in Southern Nigeria. It begins by providing background on climate change and its negative impacts on agriculture, including reduced crop yields and livestock income. It then presents a literature review on adaptation strategies for agriculture, such as adopting drought/heat resistant crops and breeds.
The study aims to identify the weaknesses/threats and strengths/opportunities of climate change challenges for crop and livestock production using SWOT analysis. It describes the research design and sample, which includes 266 crop farmers, 266 livestock farmers, and 78 agricultural extension agents surveyed. The results will help recommend strategies for farmers and researchers to better manage climate change impacts on agriculture.
Climate change will impact global food security in several ways:
1) It will affect all dimensions of food security including food availability, access, utilization, and stability by impacting agriculture, human health, livelihoods, and food systems.
2) Vulnerable populations like smallholder farmers, coastal and arctic communities, and the urban poor will be most at risk of food insecurity due to climate change's effects.
3) Countries and communities must take steps to adapt to and mitigate climate change in order to protect food security by improving information systems, risk management strategies, agricultural resilience, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from food production.
This paper aimed at evaluating biotechnology concerning its application. Major areas of applications identified in the literature are environment, medicine, agriculture, food processing, and industry. Therefore, this review report tries to touch all the aspects of biotechnology in the field. Biotechnology has applied to food processing in most developing countries makes use of microbial inoculants to enhance properties such as the taste, aroma, shelf-life, consistency, and nutritional value of foods/dairy products. Biotechnological approaches are applied to enhance the nutritional, functional and sensory attributes of food in milk, meat, fish, and beverage processing industries. The targeted use of biotechnological methods can, amongst other things, help reduce the quantity and number of unhealthy ingredients in foods as well as remove allergenic substances
Tennyson Magombo: Incidence of Indigenous and Innovative climate change adapt...AfricaAdapt
This study examined indigenous climate change adaptation practices of smallholder farmers in Chikhwawa District, Southern Malawi. The researchers identified several key indigenous adaptation strategies used by farmers, including crop diversification, eating a wild tuber plant called nyika, applying organic manure to fields, mixed crop-livestock farming, small-scale irrigation, and generating non-farm income. Factors like household size, income, access to markets and extension services affected the adoption of these strategies. The researchers concluded that promoting indigenous practices through improved extension, collective action, and domesticating nyika could help farmers better adapt to climate change.
Diversification of rice-based cropping system and their impact on energy util...P.K. Mani
The document evaluates different rice-based cropping systems in West Bengal, India. It finds that the rice-potato-lady's finger system (T4) produced the highest system yield and productivity, as well as the greatest net return and benefit-cost ratio. The rice-potato-sesame system (T3) had the highest energy productivity and fuel energy use efficiency. Overall, the document concludes that the best cropping systems were rice-potato-lady's finger and rice-potato-sesame.
Climate change and farming vulnerability in the coast ofAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study on the impacts of climate change on farming in coastal Bangladesh. It finds that farmers in the study region face many climate-related hazards like river erosion, salinity intrusion, flooding, and heavy rainfall. Most farmers have small landholdings below 0.2 hectares. The main crops are rice varieties, though some areas experience too much salinity for certain rice types. Many farmers rely on rainwater instead of river water for irrigation. The study found that around 37% of farmers migrate seasonally due to climate impacts, with 21% migrating permanently. During rainy season, over 25% of households face waterlogging and flooding issues. Farmers also suffer from diseases linked to climate change like
Yield potentials of recently released wheat varieties and advanced lines unde...Innspub Net
An experiment was conducted to study the varietals /genotypic potentiality in producing maximum yield under
different soil and environmental conditions and N-use efficiency of different genotypes and to support wheat
breeding program in selecting the genotype with relatively higher yield potential. The experiment was conducted
in split plot design with three replications to evaluate the two soil management practices: (i) Recommended
fertilizer (N100P30K50S20) with all the production package of Wheat Research Center (WRC) (timely sowing, one
weeding, 3 irrigations) (ii) Treatment (i) plus soil treatment (application of granular fungicide in moist soil before
seeding) with plant protection (foliar application of tilt at anthesis and grain filling). One additional irrigation
(schedules: 17-21, 35-40, 55-60, 75-80 DAS) in the main plot and eight varieties/lines, varities: i) Shatabdi ii)
Prodip iii) Bijoy iv) BARI Gom-25 v) BARI Gom-26, lines: vi) BAW 1051 vii) BAW 1135 and viii) BAW 1141 in subplot were adopted. The results conclude that best management practice with Prodip, Bijoy and BAW 1141 are best performance among the genotypes/varieties and will give a new concept on identification of the strategy for the improvement of wheat cultivation and yield.
Climate change and agriculture in Central America and the Andean regionIFPRI-PIM
PIM Webinar, January 29, 2020.
Climate change poses a threat to food security and nutrition, largely through its impacts on agricultural production. To help developing countries identify where adaptation measures are most needed, IFPRI, with support from the CGIAR Research Programs on Policy, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) and Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS), conducted a multiyear study to assess the potential impact of climate change on the agriculture sector through 2050, taking into account the likely landscape of political and economic challenges that policy makers will face. The study integrated results from climate and economic models, and included detailed biophysical and bioeconomic analyses of Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica in Central America and Colombia and Peru in the Andean region of South America.
Presenters and panelists:
Timothy Thomas, Research Fellow, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Deissy Martínez Barón, Regional Program Coordinator for Latin America, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS)
Ana R. Rios, Natural Resources and Climate Change Senior Specialist, Inter-American Development Bank
More at http://bit.ly/ClimateChangeAgWebinar
Presentation by Mario Herrero, Philip Thornton and Iain Wright to Workshop on climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the livestock sector, Kathmandu, Nepal, 28-29 October 2010.
Presentation made as a discussion opener in the Climate Chance and Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture: State of Knowledge, Risks and Opportunities Special Information Seminar in the Commision on Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture meetings in FAO, 16th July 2011. Presentation made by Andy Jarvis.
The long run impact of climate change on the productivity of major crops in the districts of Punjab is analyzed for the time period of 1970 to 2010. This study used deviations from average maximum annual temperature and deviations from average rainfall are used as indicators for climate change. While other variables include sale price, fertilizer use and number of tube wells. In order to incorporate long timer periods, this study used Panel ARDL model. The results show that cotton productivity is more positively sensitive to price changes; an increase in temperature, tube wells and fertilizers while wheat productivity is more positively sensitive to the rainfall in the long run. Consequently, in the short run, wheat productivity equilibrium is faster converging. Hence deviations from average rainfall are harmful to cotton crop in the long run and cotton & wheat in the short run, while deviations in maximum temperature is only harmful for cotton crop in the short run.
Adverse Environment and Pest Management for Sustainable Plant ProductionRahulGupta2015
In the era of rapid industrialization, there is increasing global concerns pertaining to anthropogenic activities mediated massive enhancement in atmospheric greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, etc., thereby triggering global warming phenomenon. The global warming mediated climate change has been found to impose long-lasting detrimental impact on the environment. In contrast, adverse environment poses new unsightly challenges to agriculture sector like changes in precipitation pattern, temperature variations, pest infestation patterns and so on. Plant health management essentially contributes to socio-cultural sustainability, economic and environment sustainability as well as food security. The development of next-generation Integrated Pest Management programmes equipped with Artificial Intelligence, Bioinformatics and Biotechnology based tools would be a milestone for the protection of water, soil/land, wild species, environmental safety, improved plant productivity and profitability. This chapter provides an overview on the scientific approaches/strategies towards the prevention of climate change mediated impacts on agricultural plant/crop health and productivity with some notable eco-friendly pest management solutions. Overall, the better global treaties of coordination, cooperation and collaboration would lead to improved management of adverse environment and pests and plant/crop production can sustain the life on earth.
Agriculture and Climate Change: Science and Policy Contexts FAO
Authors: Francesco N. Tubiello, MAGHG Team
-The Science Context: Climate Change Dimensions
-International Climate Policy
-Critical Issues for Agriculture in the coming decade
-The Monitoring and Assessment of GHG Project
-Objectives of the workshop
Second FAO Workshop on Statistics for Greenhouse Gas Emissions 3-4 June 2013, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago.
Falck zepeda 2020 michigan state university webinar finalA Jose Falck Zepeda
A presentation made at the 2020 Michigan State University short summer course on biotehcnology and biosafety. This presentations discusses context in which GE crops may be deployed, economic benefits from the adoption of genetically engineered crops, and the enabling environment which hay hinder or promote the safe use of genetic engineering in developing countries.
One of the challenges of ecological intensification is to move agricultural research out of a focus on singular focal areas – e.g., improved seed, pest control, water management – to solutions that integrate all components of the farming system. As such, the canon of knowledge supporting ecological intensification is transdisciplinary, focusing on the biological components of farming systems and agroecological practices but extending as well to considerations of policy and farmer
and societal benefits. As the biodiversity benefits of ecological intensification, along with the negative externalities of conventional agriculture are an important motivation for ecological intensification, we have included literature on these topic, as well as references that relate climate change to ecosystem services in agriculture.
The annotated bibliography presented here is compiled on this basis, to identify the literature relevant to ecological intensification, with respect to the following categories:
1. Ecosystem services
2. Agroecology and agroecological practices
3. Farmer and societal benefits from enhancing ecosystem services
4. Biodiversity benefits of ecological intensification
5. Agriculture-induced impacts
6. Climate change
7. Policy
Within the category of ecosystem services, it has been noted in the keywords if the relevant study addresses one or several of the key ecosystem services underpinning ecological intensification in agriculture: pollination, pest regulation or soil nutrients/cycling. (Bommarco et al. 2013)
Applying the Ecosystem Services Approach to BiofuelsSIANI
This document presents a conceptual framework for assessing the impacts of biofuel production on ecosystem services and human wellbeing. It introduces the ecosystem services concept and classification system from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. The framework analyzes how biofuel production can affect provisioning, regulating, and cultural ecosystem services. It also examines the impacts on dimensions of human wellbeing, such as rural development, energy access, food security, health, and social issues. The framework aims to make the trade-offs between ecosystem services and human wellbeing explicit in order to consistently evaluate different biofuel production systems.
Climate Change and Its Impact on Agricultural Production: An Empirical Review...Premier Publishers
Agriculture, which is the mainstay of the economies of many developing countries, is highly depends on climatic conditions. This paper aimed at reviewing the climate change and its impacts on agricultural production with the specific objectives of reviewing the farmer’s adaptation strategies and barriers to the climate change and the impacts of climate change on agricultural production and food security in sub Saharan Africa countries. Empirical evidence shows that most of the smallholder famers in Sub-Saharan Africa have experienced the adaptation strategy of switching from planting high water-requirement to low water-requirement crops, planting diversified crops, changed planting dates to correspond to the change in the precipitation pattern and mixed cropping. The farmers’ ability to adapt to climate change has faced by access to information, extension services and access to credit. The effect of long-term mean climate change has significance impacts on global food production and affects all dimensions of food security in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure which may require ongoing adaptation. Finally, effective institutions on climate change at the global level help to facilitate the policy implementations and to combat the impact of climate change.
This document discusses the complex interactions between bioenergy and food security. It raises several key cross-cutting questions about this topic, including how the integration of biofuels could affect food security, what role productivity improvements play in synergies between food and bioenergy production, and if bioenergy can be deployed to enhance rather than degrade the resilience of the global food system. The document also discusses using different analytical tools at different scales to understand these issues and highlights complexity as both an obstacle and an opportunity in the bioenergy sector.
Precision Agriculture for smallholder farmers: Are we dreaming?CIMMYT
Presentation delivered by Dr. Bruno Gerard (Global Conservation Agriculture Program, CIMMYT) at Borlaug Summit on Wheat for Food Security. March 25 - 28, 2014, Ciudad Obregon, Mexico.
http://www.borlaug100.org
The document discusses the challenges of climate change for agriculture and food security. It argues that resources and research need to focus on helping poor rural communities adapt. International climate agreements could impact food security depending on how agriculture is treated and funds are allocated. The document proposes specific policy actions and Copenhagen agreement language around incentivizing agricultural mitigation, increasing adaptation investment, and establishing a public technology network focused on climate-smart agriculture.
This document summarizes a foresight study conducted by the EU Standing Committee on Agricultural Research (SCAR) Expert Group (FEG3) regarding challenges facing the agricultural system between now and 2050. The study analyzed how growing global population and changing diets will increase food demand by 70% on average across scenarios. At the same time, depletion of fossil fuels, land, water, biodiversity and other resources will be exacerbated by climate change.
The study considers two narratives - "Productivity" focused on technological solutions and "Sufficiency" prioritizing sustainable consumption. It finds major changes since the previous foresight study in 2008 include new feedback effects amplifying uncertainty, a new speed of change making time the
Climate change will impact global food security in several ways:
1) It will affect all dimensions of food security including food availability, access, utilization, and stability by impacting agriculture, human health, livelihoods, and food systems.
2) Vulnerable populations like smallholder farmers, coastal and arctic communities, and the urban poor will be most at risk of food insecurity due to climate change's effects.
3) Countries and communities must take steps to adapt to and mitigate climate change in order to protect food security by improving information systems, risk management strategies, agricultural resilience, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from food production.
This paper aimed at evaluating biotechnology concerning its application. Major areas of applications identified in the literature are environment, medicine, agriculture, food processing, and industry. Therefore, this review report tries to touch all the aspects of biotechnology in the field. Biotechnology has applied to food processing in most developing countries makes use of microbial inoculants to enhance properties such as the taste, aroma, shelf-life, consistency, and nutritional value of foods/dairy products. Biotechnological approaches are applied to enhance the nutritional, functional and sensory attributes of food in milk, meat, fish, and beverage processing industries. The targeted use of biotechnological methods can, amongst other things, help reduce the quantity and number of unhealthy ingredients in foods as well as remove allergenic substances
Tennyson Magombo: Incidence of Indigenous and Innovative climate change adapt...AfricaAdapt
This study examined indigenous climate change adaptation practices of smallholder farmers in Chikhwawa District, Southern Malawi. The researchers identified several key indigenous adaptation strategies used by farmers, including crop diversification, eating a wild tuber plant called nyika, applying organic manure to fields, mixed crop-livestock farming, small-scale irrigation, and generating non-farm income. Factors like household size, income, access to markets and extension services affected the adoption of these strategies. The researchers concluded that promoting indigenous practices through improved extension, collective action, and domesticating nyika could help farmers better adapt to climate change.
Diversification of rice-based cropping system and their impact on energy util...P.K. Mani
The document evaluates different rice-based cropping systems in West Bengal, India. It finds that the rice-potato-lady's finger system (T4) produced the highest system yield and productivity, as well as the greatest net return and benefit-cost ratio. The rice-potato-sesame system (T3) had the highest energy productivity and fuel energy use efficiency. Overall, the document concludes that the best cropping systems were rice-potato-lady's finger and rice-potato-sesame.
Climate change and farming vulnerability in the coast ofAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study on the impacts of climate change on farming in coastal Bangladesh. It finds that farmers in the study region face many climate-related hazards like river erosion, salinity intrusion, flooding, and heavy rainfall. Most farmers have small landholdings below 0.2 hectares. The main crops are rice varieties, though some areas experience too much salinity for certain rice types. Many farmers rely on rainwater instead of river water for irrigation. The study found that around 37% of farmers migrate seasonally due to climate impacts, with 21% migrating permanently. During rainy season, over 25% of households face waterlogging and flooding issues. Farmers also suffer from diseases linked to climate change like
Yield potentials of recently released wheat varieties and advanced lines unde...Innspub Net
An experiment was conducted to study the varietals /genotypic potentiality in producing maximum yield under
different soil and environmental conditions and N-use efficiency of different genotypes and to support wheat
breeding program in selecting the genotype with relatively higher yield potential. The experiment was conducted
in split plot design with three replications to evaluate the two soil management practices: (i) Recommended
fertilizer (N100P30K50S20) with all the production package of Wheat Research Center (WRC) (timely sowing, one
weeding, 3 irrigations) (ii) Treatment (i) plus soil treatment (application of granular fungicide in moist soil before
seeding) with plant protection (foliar application of tilt at anthesis and grain filling). One additional irrigation
(schedules: 17-21, 35-40, 55-60, 75-80 DAS) in the main plot and eight varieties/lines, varities: i) Shatabdi ii)
Prodip iii) Bijoy iv) BARI Gom-25 v) BARI Gom-26, lines: vi) BAW 1051 vii) BAW 1135 and viii) BAW 1141 in subplot were adopted. The results conclude that best management practice with Prodip, Bijoy and BAW 1141 are best performance among the genotypes/varieties and will give a new concept on identification of the strategy for the improvement of wheat cultivation and yield.
Climate change and agriculture in Central America and the Andean regionIFPRI-PIM
PIM Webinar, January 29, 2020.
Climate change poses a threat to food security and nutrition, largely through its impacts on agricultural production. To help developing countries identify where adaptation measures are most needed, IFPRI, with support from the CGIAR Research Programs on Policy, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) and Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS), conducted a multiyear study to assess the potential impact of climate change on the agriculture sector through 2050, taking into account the likely landscape of political and economic challenges that policy makers will face. The study integrated results from climate and economic models, and included detailed biophysical and bioeconomic analyses of Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica in Central America and Colombia and Peru in the Andean region of South America.
Presenters and panelists:
Timothy Thomas, Research Fellow, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Deissy Martínez Barón, Regional Program Coordinator for Latin America, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS)
Ana R. Rios, Natural Resources and Climate Change Senior Specialist, Inter-American Development Bank
More at http://bit.ly/ClimateChangeAgWebinar
Presentation by Mario Herrero, Philip Thornton and Iain Wright to Workshop on climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the livestock sector, Kathmandu, Nepal, 28-29 October 2010.
Presentation made as a discussion opener in the Climate Chance and Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture: State of Knowledge, Risks and Opportunities Special Information Seminar in the Commision on Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture meetings in FAO, 16th July 2011. Presentation made by Andy Jarvis.
The long run impact of climate change on the productivity of major crops in the districts of Punjab is analyzed for the time period of 1970 to 2010. This study used deviations from average maximum annual temperature and deviations from average rainfall are used as indicators for climate change. While other variables include sale price, fertilizer use and number of tube wells. In order to incorporate long timer periods, this study used Panel ARDL model. The results show that cotton productivity is more positively sensitive to price changes; an increase in temperature, tube wells and fertilizers while wheat productivity is more positively sensitive to the rainfall in the long run. Consequently, in the short run, wheat productivity equilibrium is faster converging. Hence deviations from average rainfall are harmful to cotton crop in the long run and cotton & wheat in the short run, while deviations in maximum temperature is only harmful for cotton crop in the short run.
Adverse Environment and Pest Management for Sustainable Plant ProductionRahulGupta2015
In the era of rapid industrialization, there is increasing global concerns pertaining to anthropogenic activities mediated massive enhancement in atmospheric greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, etc., thereby triggering global warming phenomenon. The global warming mediated climate change has been found to impose long-lasting detrimental impact on the environment. In contrast, adverse environment poses new unsightly challenges to agriculture sector like changes in precipitation pattern, temperature variations, pest infestation patterns and so on. Plant health management essentially contributes to socio-cultural sustainability, economic and environment sustainability as well as food security. The development of next-generation Integrated Pest Management programmes equipped with Artificial Intelligence, Bioinformatics and Biotechnology based tools would be a milestone for the protection of water, soil/land, wild species, environmental safety, improved plant productivity and profitability. This chapter provides an overview on the scientific approaches/strategies towards the prevention of climate change mediated impacts on agricultural plant/crop health and productivity with some notable eco-friendly pest management solutions. Overall, the better global treaties of coordination, cooperation and collaboration would lead to improved management of adverse environment and pests and plant/crop production can sustain the life on earth.
Agriculture and Climate Change: Science and Policy Contexts FAO
Authors: Francesco N. Tubiello, MAGHG Team
-The Science Context: Climate Change Dimensions
-International Climate Policy
-Critical Issues for Agriculture in the coming decade
-The Monitoring and Assessment of GHG Project
-Objectives of the workshop
Second FAO Workshop on Statistics for Greenhouse Gas Emissions 3-4 June 2013, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago.
Falck zepeda 2020 michigan state university webinar finalA Jose Falck Zepeda
A presentation made at the 2020 Michigan State University short summer course on biotehcnology and biosafety. This presentations discusses context in which GE crops may be deployed, economic benefits from the adoption of genetically engineered crops, and the enabling environment which hay hinder or promote the safe use of genetic engineering in developing countries.
One of the challenges of ecological intensification is to move agricultural research out of a focus on singular focal areas – e.g., improved seed, pest control, water management – to solutions that integrate all components of the farming system. As such, the canon of knowledge supporting ecological intensification is transdisciplinary, focusing on the biological components of farming systems and agroecological practices but extending as well to considerations of policy and farmer
and societal benefits. As the biodiversity benefits of ecological intensification, along with the negative externalities of conventional agriculture are an important motivation for ecological intensification, we have included literature on these topic, as well as references that relate climate change to ecosystem services in agriculture.
The annotated bibliography presented here is compiled on this basis, to identify the literature relevant to ecological intensification, with respect to the following categories:
1. Ecosystem services
2. Agroecology and agroecological practices
3. Farmer and societal benefits from enhancing ecosystem services
4. Biodiversity benefits of ecological intensification
5. Agriculture-induced impacts
6. Climate change
7. Policy
Within the category of ecosystem services, it has been noted in the keywords if the relevant study addresses one or several of the key ecosystem services underpinning ecological intensification in agriculture: pollination, pest regulation or soil nutrients/cycling. (Bommarco et al. 2013)
Applying the Ecosystem Services Approach to BiofuelsSIANI
This document presents a conceptual framework for assessing the impacts of biofuel production on ecosystem services and human wellbeing. It introduces the ecosystem services concept and classification system from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. The framework analyzes how biofuel production can affect provisioning, regulating, and cultural ecosystem services. It also examines the impacts on dimensions of human wellbeing, such as rural development, energy access, food security, health, and social issues. The framework aims to make the trade-offs between ecosystem services and human wellbeing explicit in order to consistently evaluate different biofuel production systems.
Climate Change and Its Impact on Agricultural Production: An Empirical Review...Premier Publishers
Agriculture, which is the mainstay of the economies of many developing countries, is highly depends on climatic conditions. This paper aimed at reviewing the climate change and its impacts on agricultural production with the specific objectives of reviewing the farmer’s adaptation strategies and barriers to the climate change and the impacts of climate change on agricultural production and food security in sub Saharan Africa countries. Empirical evidence shows that most of the smallholder famers in Sub-Saharan Africa have experienced the adaptation strategy of switching from planting high water-requirement to low water-requirement crops, planting diversified crops, changed planting dates to correspond to the change in the precipitation pattern and mixed cropping. The farmers’ ability to adapt to climate change has faced by access to information, extension services and access to credit. The effect of long-term mean climate change has significance impacts on global food production and affects all dimensions of food security in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure which may require ongoing adaptation. Finally, effective institutions on climate change at the global level help to facilitate the policy implementations and to combat the impact of climate change.
This document discusses the complex interactions between bioenergy and food security. It raises several key cross-cutting questions about this topic, including how the integration of biofuels could affect food security, what role productivity improvements play in synergies between food and bioenergy production, and if bioenergy can be deployed to enhance rather than degrade the resilience of the global food system. The document also discusses using different analytical tools at different scales to understand these issues and highlights complexity as both an obstacle and an opportunity in the bioenergy sector.
Precision Agriculture for smallholder farmers: Are we dreaming?CIMMYT
Presentation delivered by Dr. Bruno Gerard (Global Conservation Agriculture Program, CIMMYT) at Borlaug Summit on Wheat for Food Security. March 25 - 28, 2014, Ciudad Obregon, Mexico.
http://www.borlaug100.org
The document discusses the challenges of climate change for agriculture and food security. It argues that resources and research need to focus on helping poor rural communities adapt. International climate agreements could impact food security depending on how agriculture is treated and funds are allocated. The document proposes specific policy actions and Copenhagen agreement language around incentivizing agricultural mitigation, increasing adaptation investment, and establishing a public technology network focused on climate-smart agriculture.
This document summarizes a foresight study conducted by the EU Standing Committee on Agricultural Research (SCAR) Expert Group (FEG3) regarding challenges facing the agricultural system between now and 2050. The study analyzed how growing global population and changing diets will increase food demand by 70% on average across scenarios. At the same time, depletion of fossil fuels, land, water, biodiversity and other resources will be exacerbated by climate change.
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Low Emissions Development Strategies (Colombia Feb 20, 2014)IFPRI-EPTD
FROM GLOBAL TO LOCAL:MODELING LOW EMISSIONS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES IN COLOMBIA
Globally, agriculture is responsible for 10 – 14% of GHG emissions and largest source of no-CO2 GHG emissions. Countries can choose among technologies with different emission characteristics and we believe it's less costly to avoid high-emissions lock-in than replace them, so EFFORT TO ENCOURAGE LEDS is key.
This document discusses a study that used mixed structural covariance analysis, path analysis, and crop modeling to evaluate variation in yield components and potential yield between high-latitude and mid-European spring wheat genotypes currently grown in Finland. The study aimed to identify optimal ideotypes for each region and assess their adaptation under future climate conditions. Key findings include:
1) Modern genotypes have significantly higher yield potential than older varieties, with mid-European varieties exceeding 5 tons per hectare even under non-optimal conditions.
2) Grains per ear, harvest index, and kernel weight were the most important factors determining yield potential based on path analysis.
3) Crop modeling suggests mid-European ideotypes could achieve over 5.1 tons per
1. The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight program aims to improve quantitative modeling tools to inform priority setting in the CGIAR through scenario analysis and impact assessment.
2. The program involves all 15 CGIAR centers and other partners in building an integrated modeling framework and stronger community of practice for foresight.
3. The objectives are to improve modeling tools, strengthen the foresight community, improve assessments of alternative global futures, and inform research, investment, and policy decisions through collective scenario analysis.
This document provides a summary of research on managed grazing and its potential to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. It discusses four main areas of study on managed grazing: implementation techniques, grazing methods, impacts on flora and fauna, and greenhouse gas mitigation potential. It also examines socioeconomic factors and provides recommendations for implementing managed grazing, including establishing investment needs, converting land in phases, training farm hands, and creating cyclical management plans. Key areas for further research are identified.
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Luciano GUTIERREZ "Short and long-run impact of climate changes on worldwide grains prices"
1. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes
on Worldwide Wheat Prices
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero
NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
UNCCD Conference session :
Integrated modelling of climate impacts on food and
farming at regional to supra-national scales,
Bonn 11 April 2013
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
2. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
Outline
Motivation
Model
Results
Conclusions and Future works
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
3. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
Outline
Motivation
Model
Results
Conclusions and Future works
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
4. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
Outline
Motivation
Model
Results
Conclusions and Future works
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
5. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
Outline
Motivation
Model
Results
Conclusions and Future works
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
6. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
Main Determinants of Prices (and Production)
in World Grains Market
The recent rise in international agricultural commodity prices
has enlivened the debate on what the determinants of
commodity price behavior are and has reawakened interest
in coordinated policy actions at both the national and
international level.
Although numerous factors have been proposed in the
literature as explaining recent commodity price movements,
there is no general consensus on the relative weight that
should be attributed to each of them.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
7. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
Main Determinants of Prices (and Production)
in World Grains Market
The recent rise in international agricultural commodity prices
has enlivened the debate on what the determinants of
commodity price behavior are and has reawakened interest
in coordinated policy actions at both the national and
international level.
Although numerous factors have been proposed in the
literature as explaining recent commodity price movements,
there is no general consensus on the relative weight that
should be attributed to each of them.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
8. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
Main Determinants of Prices (and Production)
in World Grains Market
Growing food demand (Trostle, 2008; Von Braun, 2007;
Krugman, 2011)
Oil prices and Biofuel programs (Mitchell, 2008; Headey and
Fan, 2008)
The decline of commodity stocks (Abbot, Hurt and Tyner,
2008; Mitchell, 2008)
Speculation (Irwin and Merrin, 2010; Gutierrez 2012)
Climate Effects ?
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
9. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
Main Determinants of Prices (and Production)
in World Grains Market
Growing food demand (Trostle, 2008; Von Braun, 2007;
Krugman, 2011)
Oil prices and Biofuel programs (Mitchell, 2008; Headey and
Fan, 2008)
The decline of commodity stocks (Abbot, Hurt and Tyner,
2008; Mitchell, 2008)
Speculation (Irwin and Merrin, 2010; Gutierrez 2012)
Climate Effects ?
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
10. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
Main Determinants of Prices (and Production)
in World Grains Market
Growing food demand (Trostle, 2008; Von Braun, 2007;
Krugman, 2011)
Oil prices and Biofuel programs (Mitchell, 2008; Headey and
Fan, 2008)
The decline of commodity stocks (Abbot, Hurt and Tyner,
2008; Mitchell, 2008)
Speculation (Irwin and Merrin, 2010; Gutierrez 2012)
Climate Effects ?
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
11. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
Main Determinants of Prices (and Production)
in World Grains Market
Growing food demand (Trostle, 2008; Von Braun, 2007;
Krugman, 2011)
Oil prices and Biofuel programs (Mitchell, 2008; Headey and
Fan, 2008)
The decline of commodity stocks (Abbot, Hurt and Tyner,
2008; Mitchell, 2008)
Speculation (Irwin and Merrin, 2010; Gutierrez 2012)
Climate Effects ?
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
12. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
Main Determinants of Prices (and Production)
in World Grains Market
Growing food demand (Trostle, 2008; Von Braun, 2007;
Krugman, 2011)
Oil prices and Biofuel programs (Mitchell, 2008; Headey and
Fan, 2008)
The decline of commodity stocks (Abbot, Hurt and Tyner,
2008; Mitchell, 2008)
Speculation (Irwin and Merrin, 2010; Gutierrez 2012)
Climate Effects ?
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
13. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
This study developed a methodology for analyzing and
quantifying the impact of the main factors, as shock to
stocks, oil prices, cost inputs, exchange rates and...drought on
wheat prices and production.
The model is composed by 6 sub-models.
Each sub-model analyzes a specific country or region − >.
− > (i.e) the main exporter countries : Argentina, Australia,
Canada, Russia, EU, USA.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
14. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
This study developed a methodology for analyzing and
quantifying the impact of the main factors, as shock to
stocks, oil prices, cost inputs, exchange rates and...drought on
wheat prices and production.
The model is composed by 6 sub-models.
Each sub-model analyzes a specific country or region − >.
− > (i.e) the main exporter countries : Argentina, Australia,
Canada, Russia, EU, USA.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
15. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
This study developed a methodology for analyzing and
quantifying the impact of the main factors, as shock to
stocks, oil prices, cost inputs, exchange rates and...drought on
wheat prices and production.
The model is composed by 6 sub-models.
Each sub-model analyzes a specific country or region − >.
− > (i.e) the main exporter countries : Argentina, Australia,
Canada, Russia, EU, USA.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
16. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
This study developed a methodology for analyzing and
quantifying the impact of the main factors, as shock to
stocks, oil prices, cost inputs, exchange rates and...drought on
wheat prices and production.
The model is composed by 6 sub-models.
Each sub-model analyzes a specific country or region − >.
− > (i.e) the main exporter countries : Argentina, Australia,
Canada, Russia, EU, USA.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
17. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
To analyze the relationship we use the Global Vector
AutoRegression (GVAR) methodology proposed by Pesaran et
al. (2004) and Dees et al. (2007).
Each country model is individually estimated by including
country-specific and global foreign-specific variables.
The specification of the model requires two stages.
First each country VARX model is estimated.
In the second stage we stack all six individual VARX models
and link them using a Trade weight matrix.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
18. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
To analyze the relationship we use the Global Vector
AutoRegression (GVAR) methodology proposed by Pesaran et
al. (2004) and Dees et al. (2007).
Each country model is individually estimated by including
country-specific and global foreign-specific variables.
The specification of the model requires two stages.
First each country VARX model is estimated.
In the second stage we stack all six individual VARX models
and link them using a Trade weight matrix.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
19. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
To analyze the relationship we use the Global Vector
AutoRegression (GVAR) methodology proposed by Pesaran et
al. (2004) and Dees et al. (2007).
Each country model is individually estimated by including
country-specific and global foreign-specific variables.
The specification of the model requires two stages.
First each country VARX model is estimated.
In the second stage we stack all six individual VARX models
and link them using a Trade weight matrix.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
20. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
To analyze the relationship we use the Global Vector
AutoRegression (GVAR) methodology proposed by Pesaran et
al. (2004) and Dees et al. (2007).
Each country model is individually estimated by including
country-specific and global foreign-specific variables.
The specification of the model requires two stages.
First each country VARX model is estimated.
In the second stage we stack all six individual VARX models
and link them using a Trade weight matrix.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
21. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
To analyze the relationship we use the Global Vector
AutoRegression (GVAR) methodology proposed by Pesaran et
al. (2004) and Dees et al. (2007).
Each country model is individually estimated by including
country-specific and global foreign-specific variables.
The specification of the model requires two stages.
First each country VARX model is estimated.
In the second stage we stack all six individual VARX models
and link them using a Trade weight matrix.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
22. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
The GVAR model includes five variables for each
country-specific VARX model: the wheat export prices, the
wheat stock to utilization ratio, the nominal exchange rate
measured as the ratio of the local currency per unit of US
dollar, the fertilizer price and the standardized precipitation
index SPI for which we take the negative values.
The SPI is an index based on the probability of recording a
given amount of precipitation.
The index is negative for drought, and positive for wet
conditions.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
23. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
The GVAR model includes five variables for each
country-specific VARX model: the wheat export prices, the
wheat stock to utilization ratio, the nominal exchange rate
measured as the ratio of the local currency per unit of US
dollar, the fertilizer price and the standardized precipitation
index SPI for which we take the negative values.
The SPI is an index based on the probability of recording a
given amount of precipitation.
The index is negative for drought, and positive for wet
conditions.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
24. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
The GVAR model includes five variables for each
country-specific VARX model: the wheat export prices, the
wheat stock to utilization ratio, the nominal exchange rate
measured as the ratio of the local currency per unit of US
dollar, the fertilizer price and the standardized precipitation
index SPI for which we take the negative values.
The SPI is an index based on the probability of recording a
given amount of precipitation.
The index is negative for drought, and positive for wet
conditions.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
25. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
The country-specific VARX also includes foreign-specific
variables.
The foreign-specific variables are constructed using
export-based weights. The choice of weights based on exports
is undertaken with the rationale that exogenous shocks, as
wheat stocks reductions or exchange rate shocks, could
pass-through on export prices in all countries with the trade
channels.
Thus the model allows country-specific variables to be
affected by foreign variables. For example, wheat export prices
in a country will be also influenced by the world trade
weighted wheat prices of its competitors.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
26. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
The country-specific VARX also includes foreign-specific
variables.
The foreign-specific variables are constructed using
export-based weights. The choice of weights based on exports
is undertaken with the rationale that exogenous shocks, as
wheat stocks reductions or exchange rate shocks, could
pass-through on export prices in all countries with the trade
channels.
Thus the model allows country-specific variables to be
affected by foreign variables. For example, wheat export prices
in a country will be also influenced by the world trade
weighted wheat prices of its competitors.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
27. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
The country-specific VARX also includes foreign-specific
variables.
The foreign-specific variables are constructed using
export-based weights. The choice of weights based on exports
is undertaken with the rationale that exogenous shocks, as
wheat stocks reductions or exchange rate shocks, could
pass-through on export prices in all countries with the trade
channels.
Thus the model allows country-specific variables to be
affected by foreign variables. For example, wheat export prices
in a country will be also influenced by the world trade
weighted wheat prices of its competitors.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
28. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
We present here the impulse response of wheat prices to a
shock of the drought variable (SPI)
The impulse response traces out the response of current and
future values of a variable (wheat export prices and
production) to a (standardized) shock of other variables as in
this case a drought shock.
Analyzing how a variable responds to shocks to other variables
we obtain information on the economic relationships
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
29. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
We present here the impulse response of wheat prices to a
shock of the drought variable (SPI)
The impulse response traces out the response of current and
future values of a variable (wheat export prices and
production) to a (standardized) shock of other variables as in
this case a drought shock.
Analyzing how a variable responds to shocks to other variables
we obtain information on the economic relationships
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
30. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
We present here the impulse response of wheat prices to a
shock of the drought variable (SPI)
The impulse response traces out the response of current and
future values of a variable (wheat export prices and
production) to a (standardized) shock of other variables as in
this case a drought shock.
Analyzing how a variable responds to shocks to other variables
we obtain information on the economic relationships
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
31. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
Results : Impulse Response of Wheat Prices (P)
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
32. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
Results : Impulse Response of Wheat Production (Q)
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
33. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
Results : Demand-Supply Graph
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
34. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
Conculsions and Future works
Adverse weather can induce a reduction of global average
yields for grains and affect prices
The model allows for the analysis of the channels of
transmission from external shocks ( heavy increase/decrease
in oil-based fuel prices, strong depletion in stocks level,
effective exchange rate changes, adverse climate change) to
wheat prices and production.
The model may help to monitor the worldwide wheat
commodity market and to allow for the analysis of the impact
of different shocks at national as well as at global level.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
35. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
Conculsions and Future works
Adverse weather can induce a reduction of global average
yields for grains and affect prices
The model allows for the analysis of the channels of
transmission from external shocks ( heavy increase/decrease
in oil-based fuel prices, strong depletion in stocks level,
effective exchange rate changes, adverse climate change) to
wheat prices and production.
The model may help to monitor the worldwide wheat
commodity market and to allow for the analysis of the impact
of different shocks at national as well as at global level.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
36. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
Conculsions and Future works
Adverse weather can induce a reduction of global average
yields for grains and affect prices
The model allows for the analysis of the channels of
transmission from external shocks ( heavy increase/decrease
in oil-based fuel prices, strong depletion in stocks level,
effective exchange rate changes, adverse climate change) to
wheat prices and production.
The model may help to monitor the worldwide wheat
commodity market and to allow for the analysis of the impact
of different shocks at national as well as at global level.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
37. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
Conclusions and Future works
Enlarging the number of sub-models, i.e. including Brasil,
China and India.
Enlarging the analysis to other commodities as corn and
soybeans
Linking the results to micro-models
Provide a Java graphical interface.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
38. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
Conclusions and Future works
Enlarging the number of sub-models, i.e. including Brasil,
China and India.
Enlarging the analysis to other commodities as corn and
soybeans
Linking the results to micro-models
Provide a Java graphical interface.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
39. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
Conclusions and Future works
Enlarging the number of sub-models, i.e. including Brasil,
China and India.
Enlarging the analysis to other commodities as corn and
soybeans
Linking the results to micro-models
Provide a Java graphical interface.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
40. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
Conclusions and Future works
Enlarging the number of sub-models, i.e. including Brasil,
China and India.
Enlarging the analysis to other commodities as corn and
soybeans
Linking the results to micro-models
Provide a Java graphical interface.
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices
41. Outline Motivation Model Results Conclusions
Thanks
Thanks!
L. Gutierrez, F. Piras and P.P. Roggero NRD - UNISS-Dipartimento di Agraria - MACSUR
Short and Long-run Impacts of Climate Changes on Worldwide Wheat Prices