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© OECD/IEA 2017 © OECD/IEA 2017
Tim Gould
Toshiyuki Shirai
Ali Al-Saffar
© OECD/IEA 2017
Southeast Asia: the energy context
 Southeast Asia is emerging as major global energy player
 Strong economic & population growth, urbanisation & industrialisation
 Demand increased by 60% since 2000, strong potential for further growth
 A region with multiple energy challenges
 65 million lacking access to electricity, 250 million reliant on solid fuels for cooking
 Dwindling position as a gas exporter, and a rising dependency on imported oil
 Poor air quality, vulnerability to effects of climate change
 Opportunities for a cleaner energy future
 Paris Agreement ratified by all, increasing attention to renewables & efficiency
 Fossil fuel subsidy reforms making progress
© OECD/IEA 2017
A shift in the global centre of gravity for energy
Change in primary energy demand to 2040
in the New Policies Scenario (Mtoe)
Southeast Asia, India and China are the engine of future energy demand growth,
together accounting for almost 60% of the global increase to 2040
Share of global growth
2016-2040
1 005
India 420
Southeast
Asia
790
China
United States
-30
Japan
-50
Europe
-280
320
Latin
America
485
Africa
135
Eurasia
485Middle
East
11%
21%
26%
13%
13%
8%
3%
5%
Southeast
Asia
China
India
Middle
East
Africa
Latin
America
Eurasia
Other
© OECD/IEA 2017
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100Mtoe
Electricity leads demand growth
Change in total final energy consumption 2016-2040 in the New Policies Scenario
A growing middle class proves a formidable factor behind both
the increase in electricity (in households) and oil (for transport)
Bioenergy Coal Gas Oil Electricity
© OECD/IEA 2017
200 400 600 800 1 000
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Coal
TWh
The power mix becomes more diversified
Power generation by fuel in the New Policies Scenario
Renewables account for the largest share of installed capacity in 2040,
but coal plays a major role in the projected generation mix
2016
Change to 2040
Hydro
Solar PV
Wind
Other
Of which:
© OECD/IEA 2017
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2016 2030 2040
The road to universal electricity access
Access to electricity
All countries in the region achieve universal access to electricity by the early 2030s,
deploying a range of technologies depending on circumstance
Access by type of connection, 2030
On-grid
43%
Off-grid
24%
Mini-grid
33%
Philippines
Myanmar
Cambodia
Lao PDR
Viet Nam
Thailand
Indonesia
© OECD/IEA 2017
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2016 2025 2040
Coal (Mtce)
A growing need for imports
Fossil fuel production and demand to 2040 in the New Policies Scenario
By 2040, Southeast Asia is a net importer of all fossil fuels,
and the import bill exceeds $300 billion
Production Demand
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2016 2025 2040
Gas (bcm)Oil (mb/d)
2000 2016 2025 2040
2
4
6
10
8
© OECD/IEA 2017
The future is not set in stone
Key indicators for New Policies (NPS) and Sustainable Development (SDS) Scenarios
A different pattern of investment could put Southeast Asia
on a different, more sustainable pathway, bringing multiple benefits
200
400
600
NPS SDS
Premature deaths from air pollution
(Thousand people)
Supply
investment
Efficiency
investment
Cumulative investment
(Trillion dollars)
1
2
3
NPS SDS
100
200
300
400
NPS SDS
Fossil fuel import bill
(Billion dollars)
© OECD/IEA 2017
A greener pathway for Southeast Asia
Primary energy demand in 2040 in the New Policies Scenario
and the Sustainable Development Scenario
Coal use is hit hard in the Sustainable Development Scenario, as efficiency and
renewables become the watchwords of a clean energy transition
26%
29%21%
0.4%
3%
13%
8%
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Bioenergy
Other renewables
NPS
1 062 Mtoe
9%
28%
22%
1%
5%
11%
24%
SDS
891 Mtoe
© OECD/IEA 2017
Energy investment profiles to 2040
Annual average energy investment to 2040 in the New Policies Scenario
and the Sustainable Development Scenario
The clean energy transition needs a ramp-up &
reorientation of energy investment to 2040
20 40 60 80 100 120 140
SDS
NPS
Billion dollars (2016)
T&D
Power generation (fossil fuel)
Power generation (non-fossil fuel)
Power sector
End-use sector
Fossil-fuel supply
© OECD/IEA 2017
Mobilising efficiency investment in end-use sectors
Average annual additional investment to 2040 in end-use sectors
in the Sustainable Development Scenario
Efficiency investment requires effective regulatory frameworks & incentives
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
World Southeast Asia
Share of final consumption covered by
mandatory efficiency regulation
0 2 4 6
Transport
Buildings
Industry
Energy-intensive industry
Non energy-intensive
industry
Efficiency
Fuel switch
Appliances
Other residential
Billion dollars (2016)
© OECD/IEA 2017
SDS
Investment in power generation plants
Annual average investment to 2040 in power generation plants
The power sector is in the front line of the energy transition, with a major increase in
capital flows towards renewables and a sharp reduction in carbon intensity
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
NPS
Billiondollars(2016)
Coal
Gas
Oil
Nuclear
Hydro
Solar PV & wind
Other renewables
Carbon intensity in 2040
(Right hand axis, 2015=100)
© OECD/IEA 2017
Conclusions
 Robust economic growth and fast-paced demographic change mean that
Southeast Asia’s role in global energy is set to expand
 The region faces myriad energy challenges, but there are accessible
technologies and proven policies that can help to meet them
 Energy efficiency, subsidy reform and enhanced regional integration play vital
roles in the region’s policy mix
 Significant participation from the private sector and co-operation with
international institutions are needed to meet the vast investment requirements
 With a small increase in overall investment, but a major reallocation of flows,
Southeast Asia can achieve a more sustainable pathway, with multiple benefits
 With international engagement on energy more important than ever, the IEA
stands ready to be a strong partner for the region

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Webinar : Southeast Asia Energy Outlook

  • 1. © OECD/IEA 2017 © OECD/IEA 2017 Tim Gould Toshiyuki Shirai Ali Al-Saffar
  • 2. © OECD/IEA 2017 Southeast Asia: the energy context  Southeast Asia is emerging as major global energy player  Strong economic & population growth, urbanisation & industrialisation  Demand increased by 60% since 2000, strong potential for further growth  A region with multiple energy challenges  65 million lacking access to electricity, 250 million reliant on solid fuels for cooking  Dwindling position as a gas exporter, and a rising dependency on imported oil  Poor air quality, vulnerability to effects of climate change  Opportunities for a cleaner energy future  Paris Agreement ratified by all, increasing attention to renewables & efficiency  Fossil fuel subsidy reforms making progress
  • 3. © OECD/IEA 2017 A shift in the global centre of gravity for energy Change in primary energy demand to 2040 in the New Policies Scenario (Mtoe) Southeast Asia, India and China are the engine of future energy demand growth, together accounting for almost 60% of the global increase to 2040 Share of global growth 2016-2040 1 005 India 420 Southeast Asia 790 China United States -30 Japan -50 Europe -280 320 Latin America 485 Africa 135 Eurasia 485Middle East 11% 21% 26% 13% 13% 8% 3% 5% Southeast Asia China India Middle East Africa Latin America Eurasia Other
  • 4. © OECD/IEA 2017 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100Mtoe Electricity leads demand growth Change in total final energy consumption 2016-2040 in the New Policies Scenario A growing middle class proves a formidable factor behind both the increase in electricity (in households) and oil (for transport) Bioenergy Coal Gas Oil Electricity
  • 5. © OECD/IEA 2017 200 400 600 800 1 000 Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Coal TWh The power mix becomes more diversified Power generation by fuel in the New Policies Scenario Renewables account for the largest share of installed capacity in 2040, but coal plays a major role in the projected generation mix 2016 Change to 2040 Hydro Solar PV Wind Other Of which:
  • 6. © OECD/IEA 2017 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2016 2030 2040 The road to universal electricity access Access to electricity All countries in the region achieve universal access to electricity by the early 2030s, deploying a range of technologies depending on circumstance Access by type of connection, 2030 On-grid 43% Off-grid 24% Mini-grid 33% Philippines Myanmar Cambodia Lao PDR Viet Nam Thailand Indonesia
  • 7. © OECD/IEA 2017 100 200 300 400 500 2000 2016 2025 2040 Coal (Mtce) A growing need for imports Fossil fuel production and demand to 2040 in the New Policies Scenario By 2040, Southeast Asia is a net importer of all fossil fuels, and the import bill exceeds $300 billion Production Demand 50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2016 2025 2040 Gas (bcm)Oil (mb/d) 2000 2016 2025 2040 2 4 6 10 8
  • 8. © OECD/IEA 2017 The future is not set in stone Key indicators for New Policies (NPS) and Sustainable Development (SDS) Scenarios A different pattern of investment could put Southeast Asia on a different, more sustainable pathway, bringing multiple benefits 200 400 600 NPS SDS Premature deaths from air pollution (Thousand people) Supply investment Efficiency investment Cumulative investment (Trillion dollars) 1 2 3 NPS SDS 100 200 300 400 NPS SDS Fossil fuel import bill (Billion dollars)
  • 9. © OECD/IEA 2017 A greener pathway for Southeast Asia Primary energy demand in 2040 in the New Policies Scenario and the Sustainable Development Scenario Coal use is hit hard in the Sustainable Development Scenario, as efficiency and renewables become the watchwords of a clean energy transition 26% 29%21% 0.4% 3% 13% 8% Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Other renewables NPS 1 062 Mtoe 9% 28% 22% 1% 5% 11% 24% SDS 891 Mtoe
  • 10. © OECD/IEA 2017 Energy investment profiles to 2040 Annual average energy investment to 2040 in the New Policies Scenario and the Sustainable Development Scenario The clean energy transition needs a ramp-up & reorientation of energy investment to 2040 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 SDS NPS Billion dollars (2016) T&D Power generation (fossil fuel) Power generation (non-fossil fuel) Power sector End-use sector Fossil-fuel supply
  • 11. © OECD/IEA 2017 Mobilising efficiency investment in end-use sectors Average annual additional investment to 2040 in end-use sectors in the Sustainable Development Scenario Efficiency investment requires effective regulatory frameworks & incentives 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% World Southeast Asia Share of final consumption covered by mandatory efficiency regulation 0 2 4 6 Transport Buildings Industry Energy-intensive industry Non energy-intensive industry Efficiency Fuel switch Appliances Other residential Billion dollars (2016)
  • 12. © OECD/IEA 2017 SDS Investment in power generation plants Annual average investment to 2040 in power generation plants The power sector is in the front line of the energy transition, with a major increase in capital flows towards renewables and a sharp reduction in carbon intensity 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 NPS Billiondollars(2016) Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Hydro Solar PV & wind Other renewables Carbon intensity in 2040 (Right hand axis, 2015=100)
  • 13. © OECD/IEA 2017 Conclusions  Robust economic growth and fast-paced demographic change mean that Southeast Asia’s role in global energy is set to expand  The region faces myriad energy challenges, but there are accessible technologies and proven policies that can help to meet them  Energy efficiency, subsidy reform and enhanced regional integration play vital roles in the region’s policy mix  Significant participation from the private sector and co-operation with international institutions are needed to meet the vast investment requirements  With a small increase in overall investment, but a major reallocation of flows, Southeast Asia can achieve a more sustainable pathway, with multiple benefits  With international engagement on energy more important than ever, the IEA stands ready to be a strong partner for the region