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World Energy Outlook
Dr. Fatih Birol
IEA Chief Economist
OECD Parliamentary Days
Paris, 5 February 2014

© OECD/IEA 2014
The world energy scene today
 Some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten

 Countries are switching roles: importers are becoming exporters…
 … and exporters are among the major sources of growing demand
 New supply options reshape ideas about distribution of resources
 But long-term solutions to global challenges remain scarce

 Renewed focus on energy efficiency, but CO2 emissions continue to rise
 Fossil-fuel subsidies increased to $544 billion in 2012
 1.3 billion people still lack electricity – in Africa and South Asia
 Energy prices add to the pressure on policymakers

 Sustained period of high oil prices without parallel in market history
 Large, persistent regional price differences for gas & electricity
© OECD/IEA 2014
The engine of energy demand growth
moves to South Asia
Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe)

Share of global growth
2012-2035

Eurasia

Latin
America

Europe
1 370
United
States

8%

China

1 710

4 060

2 240

Middle 1 050
East
Brazil
480

1 030
Africa

1 540

Eurasia OECD

1 000

Africa
440

Japan

Southeast
Asia

5% 4%

8%

Middle 10%
East

65%

India
Non-OECD
Asia

China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade,
but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth
© OECD/IEA 2014
A mix that is slow to change
Growth in total primary energy demand
1987-2011
Gas

2011-2035

Coal
Renewables
Oil
Nuclear
500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000
Mtoe

25 years ago the share of fossil fuels in the global mix was 82%; it is the same today
& the strong rise of renewables in the future only reduces this to around 75% in 2035
© OECD/IEA 2014
Emissions off track in the run-up
to the 2015 climate summit in France
Cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions
Total emissions
1900-2035

Gt 800

600
Non-OECD
Non-OECD
49%
OECD

400

200
OECD
51%
1900
-1929

1930
-1959

1960
-1989

1990
-2012

2013
-2035

Non-OECD countries account for a rising share of emissions,
although 2035 per capita levels are only half of OECD
© OECD/IEA 2014
Renewables power up around the world
Growth in electricity generation from renewable sources, 2011-2035
TWh 2 100
Other
renewables

1 800
1 500
1 200
900
600
300

Other
United
renewables
States
Solar PV
Japan

Wind
European
Union
Hydro
Europe, Japan
& United States

Other
ASEAN
renewables

Solar PV

Solar PV
Africa
Wind

Wind
China

Latin
America
Hydro

Hydro

India

China

India, Latin America,
ASEAN & Africa

The expansion of non-hydro renewables depends on subsidies that more than double
to 2035; additions of wind & solar have implications for power market design & costs
© OECD/IEA 2014
Increasing subsidies for increasing
renewables
Renewable-energy subsidies by region in 2012
Rest of the
world
13%

India
2%

China

7%

$101 billion 57%

European
Union

21%

United States

Renewables subsidies increased to $101 billion in 2012, more than half of which are
Renewables subsidies increased to $101 billion in 2012,
in the European Union; renewables subsidies are set to more than double by 2035.
renewables subsidies are set to more than double by 2035
© OECD/IEA 2014
Who has the energy to compete?
Ratio of industrial energy prices relative to the United States
Natural gas

Electricity

5
Reduction
from 2013

4

2035
2013
2003

3

2003
2

United States

Japan

European
Union

China

Japan

European
Union

China

Regional differences in natural gas prices narrow from today’s very high levels
but remain large through to 2035; electricity price differentials also persist
© OECD/IEA 2014
Energy-intensive industries
need to count their costs
Share of energy in total production costs for selected industries
10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Petrochemicals
Fertilisers
Aluminium
Cement
Iron & steel
Pulp & paper
Glass

Energy-intensive sectors worldwide account for around one-fifth of industrial value
added, one-quarter of industrial employment and 70% of industrial energy use.
© OECD/IEA 2014
An energy boost to the economy?
Share of global export market for energy-intensive goods
+3%

European Union
+1%

Today

36%

10%

+2%

+2%

7%

3%

2%

China

Middle East

India

Japan
7%

United States

-3%
-10%

The US, together with key emerging economies, increases its export market share
for energy-intensive goods, while the EU & Japan see a sharp decline
and Japan see a sharp decline
© OECD/IEA 2014
LNG from the United States
can shake up gas markets
Indicative economics of LNG export from the US Gulf Coast (at current prices)
$/MBtu
18
15
12

$/MBtu
12

9

9

6

6

3

3
To Asia

Average import price
Liquefaction, shipping
& regasification
United States price

To Europe

New LNG supplies accelerate movement towards a more interconnected global
market, but high costs of transport between regions mean no single global gas price
© OECD/IEA 2014
Orientation for a fast-changing energy world
 China, then India, drive the growing dominance of Asia

in global energy demand
 Technology is opening up new oil resources, but the Middle East

remains central to the longer-term outlook
 Regional price gaps & concerns over competitiveness are here

to stay, but there are ways to react – with efficiency first in line
 The shift in the balance of global energy trade towards Asia

will have profound implications for energy security cooperation

© OECD/IEA 2014

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World Energy Outlook - Parliamentary Days 2014

  • 1. World Energy Outlook Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist OECD Parliamentary Days Paris, 5 February 2014 © OECD/IEA 2014
  • 2. The world energy scene today  Some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten  Countries are switching roles: importers are becoming exporters…  … and exporters are among the major sources of growing demand  New supply options reshape ideas about distribution of resources  But long-term solutions to global challenges remain scarce  Renewed focus on energy efficiency, but CO2 emissions continue to rise  Fossil-fuel subsidies increased to $544 billion in 2012  1.3 billion people still lack electricity – in Africa and South Asia  Energy prices add to the pressure on policymakers  Sustained period of high oil prices without parallel in market history  Large, persistent regional price differences for gas & electricity © OECD/IEA 2014
  • 3. The engine of energy demand growth moves to South Asia Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe) Share of global growth 2012-2035 Eurasia Latin America Europe 1 370 United States 8% China 1 710 4 060 2 240 Middle 1 050 East Brazil 480 1 030 Africa 1 540 Eurasia OECD 1 000 Africa 440 Japan Southeast Asia 5% 4% 8% Middle 10% East 65% India Non-OECD Asia China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade, but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth © OECD/IEA 2014
  • 4. A mix that is slow to change Growth in total primary energy demand 1987-2011 Gas 2011-2035 Coal Renewables Oil Nuclear 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 Mtoe 25 years ago the share of fossil fuels in the global mix was 82%; it is the same today & the strong rise of renewables in the future only reduces this to around 75% in 2035 © OECD/IEA 2014
  • 5. Emissions off track in the run-up to the 2015 climate summit in France Cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions Total emissions 1900-2035 Gt 800 600 Non-OECD Non-OECD 49% OECD 400 200 OECD 51% 1900 -1929 1930 -1959 1960 -1989 1990 -2012 2013 -2035 Non-OECD countries account for a rising share of emissions, although 2035 per capita levels are only half of OECD © OECD/IEA 2014
  • 6. Renewables power up around the world Growth in electricity generation from renewable sources, 2011-2035 TWh 2 100 Other renewables 1 800 1 500 1 200 900 600 300 Other United renewables States Solar PV Japan Wind European Union Hydro Europe, Japan & United States Other ASEAN renewables Solar PV Solar PV Africa Wind Wind China Latin America Hydro Hydro India China India, Latin America, ASEAN & Africa The expansion of non-hydro renewables depends on subsidies that more than double to 2035; additions of wind & solar have implications for power market design & costs © OECD/IEA 2014
  • 7. Increasing subsidies for increasing renewables Renewable-energy subsidies by region in 2012 Rest of the world 13% India 2% China 7% $101 billion 57% European Union 21% United States Renewables subsidies increased to $101 billion in 2012, more than half of which are Renewables subsidies increased to $101 billion in 2012, in the European Union; renewables subsidies are set to more than double by 2035. renewables subsidies are set to more than double by 2035 © OECD/IEA 2014
  • 8. Who has the energy to compete? Ratio of industrial energy prices relative to the United States Natural gas Electricity 5 Reduction from 2013 4 2035 2013 2003 3 2003 2 United States Japan European Union China Japan European Union China Regional differences in natural gas prices narrow from today’s very high levels but remain large through to 2035; electricity price differentials also persist © OECD/IEA 2014
  • 9. Energy-intensive industries need to count their costs Share of energy in total production costs for selected industries 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Petrochemicals Fertilisers Aluminium Cement Iron & steel Pulp & paper Glass Energy-intensive sectors worldwide account for around one-fifth of industrial value added, one-quarter of industrial employment and 70% of industrial energy use. © OECD/IEA 2014
  • 10. An energy boost to the economy? Share of global export market for energy-intensive goods +3% European Union +1% Today 36% 10% +2% +2% 7% 3% 2% China Middle East India Japan 7% United States -3% -10% The US, together with key emerging economies, increases its export market share for energy-intensive goods, while the EU & Japan see a sharp decline and Japan see a sharp decline © OECD/IEA 2014
  • 11. LNG from the United States can shake up gas markets Indicative economics of LNG export from the US Gulf Coast (at current prices) $/MBtu 18 15 12 $/MBtu 12 9 9 6 6 3 3 To Asia Average import price Liquefaction, shipping & regasification United States price To Europe New LNG supplies accelerate movement towards a more interconnected global market, but high costs of transport between regions mean no single global gas price © OECD/IEA 2014
  • 12. Orientation for a fast-changing energy world  China, then India, drive the growing dominance of Asia in global energy demand  Technology is opening up new oil resources, but the Middle East remains central to the longer-term outlook  Regional price gaps & concerns over competitiveness are here to stay, but there are ways to react – with efficiency first in line  The shift in the balance of global energy trade towards Asia will have profound implications for energy security cooperation © OECD/IEA 2014