The document discusses the vulnerability of energy infrastructure to violence using a contagion framework. It proposes the creation of an Energy Infrastructure Attack Database (EIAD) to analyze the dynamics of violence in this context and emphasizes the importance of socio-technical factors. Research areas include tracing violent behaviors, building resilience, and identifying effective interventions to mitigate risks.

1. The Power of Contagion:
Examining Energy Infrastructure Vulnerability
J ENNI F ER GIROUX
C ENT ER FOR S ECURI T Y S TUDI E S ( C S S ) , E TH ZURI CH
g i ro u x@s ip o . ge s s . e t h z . ch
GLOBAL RI S K FORUM
2 5 AUGUS T 2 0 1 4
www.css.ethz.ch

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3. Energy
Infrastructure
Attack Database
(EIAD)
 Problem: Dynamic terrain, data problem
 Solution: Create EIAD
 Partners: Data Analysis: Paul Scherrer
Institute; Case Studies: USIP; Community
of Interest: Providing data & feedback
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4. www.css.ethz.ch

5. www.css.ethz.ch

7. Using Contagion Framework to Contextualize Clusters
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Host:
Individuals &
groups
Vector: Social
networks,
spaces,
media/info
Environment
Social,
Political, etc.
factors
Agent :
Violent
behavior &
TEI
Context diagnosis
(socio-technical
lens)
Identify VNSA
and vulnerable
populations –
map social
system
Violence process tracing
– violence origin and
mutation – when/how
does it come into play
w/ infr, incubation, etc.

8. www.css.ethz.ch

9. Host Environ: Conditions Enabling/Driving Violence
 Economic issues & underdevelopment
 Social & political issues; environmental degradation
 State response to activism and organized violence
 Location of EI and relationship with energy sector

10. Agent: Tracing the violence over time

12. Future Analysis
Contextual analysis =
policy/intervention insights
Areas for Research
Host:
Individuals
& groups
Vector:
Social
networks,
spaces,
media/info
Intervention pt:
build resilience;
“immunization” &
protection
Host
Environ
Agent :
Violent
behavior &
TEI
 Opportunity for comparative
studies
 What do (past) clusters
tell us? What about the
anomalies?
 Containing/mitigating
contagion = what works?
 Maintaining/expanding EIAD
& delving into predictive
analysis
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Intervention
pt: ameliorate
drivers/relieve
pressures
Intervention
pt: contain
outbreak

13. Stay in Touch 
J ENNI F E R GI ROUX
C ENT E R FOR S E CUR I T Y S TUD I E S ( C S S ) , E T H ZUR I CH
GI ROUX@S I PO.GE S S . E T HZ . CH
TWI T T E R : GI ROUX X
WWW.T R AC K INGENE RGYAT TAC K S . COM
WWW. J ENNI F E RGI ROUX . COM
www.css.ethz.ch