This document discusses three dimensions of foresight: difference, depth, and diversity.
Difference refers to the idea that the future context will not be the same as the present. Depth emphasizes experiencing hypothetical futures viscerally. Diversity acknowledges that there are multiple possible futures rather than a single future. Examples like experiential scenarios and games aim to illustrate these dimensions and help people navigate change. Foresight practices incorporating difference, depth and diversity can help design preferable alternatives and make wise choices.
Guerrilla futures is a practice at the intersection of strategic foresight and tactical media.
It's a direct answer to the challenge of bringing possible future scenarios to life in urban spaces.
This is an edited version of a presentation made by Stuart Candy (@futuryst) as part of a panel on Urban Tactics, for the second annual Festival of Transitional Architecture (@FESTA_CHCH) in Christchurch, New Zealand, on 26 October 2013. The panel was organised by Barnaby Bennett (@mrbarnabyb). http://festa.org.nz/
Webinar: Intro to Strategic Foresight & Futures ThinkingMad*Pow
Presented by Mad*Pow Experience Strategist, Liz Possee Corthell.
When the future is uncertain, how can organizations design and innovate boldly but responsibly? Futures thinking is an approach to strategic design that considers what is likely to change and what is likely to stay the same in the future, as a means to be more reflective in strategic planning. Considered by some to be more of an art, and by others to be a science, futures thinking gives us a framework to talk about our current world, and how the world may look in the future.
To quote futurist Dr. Sohail Inayatullah, “With futures thinking, we use the future to change the present. “
In this webinar, you’ll learn that futures thinking is not an effort to predict the future, but rather a means to illuminate unexpected implications of present-day issues that empower individuals and organizations to actively design desirable futures. The emphasis isn’t on what will happen, but on what could happen, given various observed drivers.
It’s a way of gaining new perspectives and context for present-day decisions, as well as for navigating the dilemma at the heart of all strategic thinking: the future can’t be predicted, yet we have to make choices based on what is to come.
This presentation will include a few tools you can start using right away, as well as a few activities to get us thinking about the future.
Speculative Design and Experiential Futures Stuart Candy
Speculative design and experiential futures are practices for influencing what is possible by materialising the imaginary.
This is an edited version of a presentation by design futurist Stuart Candy to the Stanford d.School class "Decay of Digital Things" (http://decay.io) at the invitation of Elizabeth Goodman (@egoodman) on May 1, 2014.
What is the UK Policy Lab and how does it work? The UK government set up a Policy Lab in 2014. This presentation looks at the projects and activities to date and plans for the future.
Guerrilla futures is a practice at the intersection of strategic foresight and tactical media.
It's a direct answer to the challenge of bringing possible future scenarios to life in urban spaces.
This is an edited version of a presentation made by Stuart Candy (@futuryst) as part of a panel on Urban Tactics, for the second annual Festival of Transitional Architecture (@FESTA_CHCH) in Christchurch, New Zealand, on 26 October 2013. The panel was organised by Barnaby Bennett (@mrbarnabyb). http://festa.org.nz/
Webinar: Intro to Strategic Foresight & Futures ThinkingMad*Pow
Presented by Mad*Pow Experience Strategist, Liz Possee Corthell.
When the future is uncertain, how can organizations design and innovate boldly but responsibly? Futures thinking is an approach to strategic design that considers what is likely to change and what is likely to stay the same in the future, as a means to be more reflective in strategic planning. Considered by some to be more of an art, and by others to be a science, futures thinking gives us a framework to talk about our current world, and how the world may look in the future.
To quote futurist Dr. Sohail Inayatullah, “With futures thinking, we use the future to change the present. “
In this webinar, you’ll learn that futures thinking is not an effort to predict the future, but rather a means to illuminate unexpected implications of present-day issues that empower individuals and organizations to actively design desirable futures. The emphasis isn’t on what will happen, but on what could happen, given various observed drivers.
It’s a way of gaining new perspectives and context for present-day decisions, as well as for navigating the dilemma at the heart of all strategic thinking: the future can’t be predicted, yet we have to make choices based on what is to come.
This presentation will include a few tools you can start using right away, as well as a few activities to get us thinking about the future.
Speculative Design and Experiential Futures Stuart Candy
Speculative design and experiential futures are practices for influencing what is possible by materialising the imaginary.
This is an edited version of a presentation by design futurist Stuart Candy to the Stanford d.School class "Decay of Digital Things" (http://decay.io) at the invitation of Elizabeth Goodman (@egoodman) on May 1, 2014.
What is the UK Policy Lab and how does it work? The UK government set up a Policy Lab in 2014. This presentation looks at the projects and activities to date and plans for the future.
Our Morgenbooster: Designing for Possible Futures.
Get a sneak-peak into how to apply futures thinking to your design processes to help create reactive and proactive brands, businesses, and products.
Morgenbooster 1508 - Think like a Futurist Act Like a Designer1508 A/S
Our Morgenbooster: Think Like a Futurist, Act Like a Designer
Get a sneak-peek into how to apply futures thinking to your design processes to help create reactive and proactive brands, businesses, and products.
In a time when consumers have been confined to their homes and social contact has been limited, influence has been pulling to the forefront of our increasingly virtual reality. But now that we are beginning the slow transition out of lockdown, how should brands be preparing to future-proof their influence for a post-COVID-19 world?
UX STRAT Online 2021 Presentation by Jessa Parette, Capital OneUX STRAT
These slides are for the following session presented at the UX STRAT Online 2021 Conference:
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Core set of slides explaining Three Horizons framework as three perspectives on the future potential of the present moment, plus how these perspectives interact in service of systems transition and 'transformative innovation'.
User centricity, hypothesising and prototyping. These are some of the core principles of Design Thinking. By empathising with a group of people, these principles promise to reduce uncertainty about what problems to solve for whom and how.
Designing products against customer jobsMartin Jordan
How do you create successful products? By asking customers what they want? By matching market trends? Or rather by understanding the jobs that users try to get done? Believing it’s the latter, Hannes Jentsch and I gave a talk at Berlin ProductTank in July 2015 discussing how to design products against customer jobs.
In the talk we shared our experience from applying Jobs-to-be-Done tools in agile environments at Nokia’s HERE business for 2 years. We described JTBD as a framework, mind as well as set of tools and methods. Furthermore, we mapped and presented key JTBD tools against the lean product development process and discussed them in detail.
A Brief Overview of Strategic Foresight - Workshop Slides for SSE-OJosinaV
These slides supported a workshop conducted with students from the School for Social Entrepreneurs - Ontario to get their feet wet around strategic foresight. It offers a rapid glimpse at the foresight process engaging them in a slice of a few rapid methods.
The March 2017 event featured a talk by business designer Christian Rudolph on service design for the circular economy. Christian runs the consultancy ‘next cycle’ and focusses on resource-intensive business models in his work.
Recently, IDEO and the Ellen McArthur Foundation released their Circular Design Guide which introduced more designers to the approach. So it was time for us to discuss the concept’s implications for service designers. Christian has years of experience in consulting industry heavy-weights like Philips and BASF, and helping them transform from linear product-focussed to circular service-oriented businesses. The evening event took take place on Wednesday, March 22nd.
Morgenbooster - Dynamic Roadmap: Bridging the gap between strategy and execution1508 A/S
This is the slides for an online webinar regarding how you can implement strategy in a way relevant for the users. The presentation talks about the tool dynamic roadmap.
Design Fiction: A short slideshow on design, science, fact and fictionJulian Bleecker
http://cli.gs/DesignFictionEssay
An exploration of the entanglements amongst science fiction and science fact, in order to show how they are not distinct, but infinitely knotted together. Why do this? In order to wonder — what are effective ways of designing the future?
Design fiction is making things that tell stories. It's like science-fiction in that the stories bring into focus certain matters-of-concern, such as how life is lived, questioning how technology is used and its implications, its ability to speculate about the course of events; all of the unique abilities of science fiction to incite imagination-filling conversations about possible habitable, life-affirming future worlds.
A larger discussion of this slidshow overview is available here: http://cli.gs/DesignFictionEssay
Future Outlook on Urban CompetitivenessWendy Schultz
The narrative of my 22 June 2010 presentation to the Global Innovation Forum in Seoul, sponsored by the Korea Economic Daily. Please refer to PDF of slidedeck, above.
Unfinished Business Design Fiction Lecture @ OCADChangeist
Unfinished Business Lecture - Design Fiction: Provoking the Future by Making It (September 29, 2010 from 5:45 pm to 7:30 pm)
Unfinished Business Events are designed by Torch Innovation and Normative Design and sponsored by the Strategic Innovation Lab at OCAD.
Could we have had the iPhone without Star Trek? Can we create the next innovation without thinking about other possible worlds? What are we making out of our imaginations that will shape what’s next? As an emerging area of thought and practice, Design Fiction provides us with a way of “thinking about doing what we see and imagine”. By making models or prototypes of the future, we expose, test and probe further into it, exploring scenarios as use cases, as they are assumptions about the future made reality. Scott Smith of Changeist will take us on a journey to see where Design Fiction has come from, its impact on a generation unwittingly raised on it, and how designers, creatives, strategists, and other future-minded professions among us are applying it to actively provoke possible futures that we prefer.
Our Morgenbooster: Designing for Possible Futures.
Get a sneak-peak into how to apply futures thinking to your design processes to help create reactive and proactive brands, businesses, and products.
Morgenbooster 1508 - Think like a Futurist Act Like a Designer1508 A/S
Our Morgenbooster: Think Like a Futurist, Act Like a Designer
Get a sneak-peek into how to apply futures thinking to your design processes to help create reactive and proactive brands, businesses, and products.
In a time when consumers have been confined to their homes and social contact has been limited, influence has been pulling to the forefront of our increasingly virtual reality. But now that we are beginning the slow transition out of lockdown, how should brands be preparing to future-proof their influence for a post-COVID-19 world?
UX STRAT Online 2021 Presentation by Jessa Parette, Capital OneUX STRAT
These slides are for the following session presented at the UX STRAT Online 2021 Conference:
"How to Measure Design Quality"
Jessa Parette
Capital One: Head of Design - Strategy, Research & Systems
IFF Three Horizons Framing Transformative Innovationgrahamiff
Core set of slides explaining Three Horizons framework as three perspectives on the future potential of the present moment, plus how these perspectives interact in service of systems transition and 'transformative innovation'.
User centricity, hypothesising and prototyping. These are some of the core principles of Design Thinking. By empathising with a group of people, these principles promise to reduce uncertainty about what problems to solve for whom and how.
Designing products against customer jobsMartin Jordan
How do you create successful products? By asking customers what they want? By matching market trends? Or rather by understanding the jobs that users try to get done? Believing it’s the latter, Hannes Jentsch and I gave a talk at Berlin ProductTank in July 2015 discussing how to design products against customer jobs.
In the talk we shared our experience from applying Jobs-to-be-Done tools in agile environments at Nokia’s HERE business for 2 years. We described JTBD as a framework, mind as well as set of tools and methods. Furthermore, we mapped and presented key JTBD tools against the lean product development process and discussed them in detail.
A Brief Overview of Strategic Foresight - Workshop Slides for SSE-OJosinaV
These slides supported a workshop conducted with students from the School for Social Entrepreneurs - Ontario to get their feet wet around strategic foresight. It offers a rapid glimpse at the foresight process engaging them in a slice of a few rapid methods.
The March 2017 event featured a talk by business designer Christian Rudolph on service design for the circular economy. Christian runs the consultancy ‘next cycle’ and focusses on resource-intensive business models in his work.
Recently, IDEO and the Ellen McArthur Foundation released their Circular Design Guide which introduced more designers to the approach. So it was time for us to discuss the concept’s implications for service designers. Christian has years of experience in consulting industry heavy-weights like Philips and BASF, and helping them transform from linear product-focussed to circular service-oriented businesses. The evening event took take place on Wednesday, March 22nd.
Morgenbooster - Dynamic Roadmap: Bridging the gap between strategy and execution1508 A/S
This is the slides for an online webinar regarding how you can implement strategy in a way relevant for the users. The presentation talks about the tool dynamic roadmap.
Design Fiction: A short slideshow on design, science, fact and fictionJulian Bleecker
http://cli.gs/DesignFictionEssay
An exploration of the entanglements amongst science fiction and science fact, in order to show how they are not distinct, but infinitely knotted together. Why do this? In order to wonder — what are effective ways of designing the future?
Design fiction is making things that tell stories. It's like science-fiction in that the stories bring into focus certain matters-of-concern, such as how life is lived, questioning how technology is used and its implications, its ability to speculate about the course of events; all of the unique abilities of science fiction to incite imagination-filling conversations about possible habitable, life-affirming future worlds.
A larger discussion of this slidshow overview is available here: http://cli.gs/DesignFictionEssay
Future Outlook on Urban CompetitivenessWendy Schultz
The narrative of my 22 June 2010 presentation to the Global Innovation Forum in Seoul, sponsored by the Korea Economic Daily. Please refer to PDF of slidedeck, above.
Unfinished Business Design Fiction Lecture @ OCADChangeist
Unfinished Business Lecture - Design Fiction: Provoking the Future by Making It (September 29, 2010 from 5:45 pm to 7:30 pm)
Unfinished Business Events are designed by Torch Innovation and Normative Design and sponsored by the Strategic Innovation Lab at OCAD.
Could we have had the iPhone without Star Trek? Can we create the next innovation without thinking about other possible worlds? What are we making out of our imaginations that will shape what’s next? As an emerging area of thought and practice, Design Fiction provides us with a way of “thinking about doing what we see and imagine”. By making models or prototypes of the future, we expose, test and probe further into it, exploring scenarios as use cases, as they are assumptions about the future made reality. Scott Smith of Changeist will take us on a journey to see where Design Fiction has come from, its impact on a generation unwittingly raised on it, and how designers, creatives, strategists, and other future-minded professions among us are applying it to actively provoke possible futures that we prefer.
John Cook Research Profile For D4DL SIG visit to & talks with the DCRC/REACT hub @ Pervasive Media Studio, Watershed, May 22nd 2013: http://cloudworks.ac.uk/cloud/view/8427
A presentation for Enriching Scholarship 2008 about trends in virtual worlds and applications of Second Life to academic and professional productivity.
A keynote comprising a discussion of aspects of the metaverse by exploring concepts through metaphor.
Key References:
Ball, M., 2022. The metaverse: and how it will revolutionize everything. Liveright Publishing.
McKinsey and Company. (2021). Defining the skills citizens will need in the future world of work Available at: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/defining-the-skills-citizens-will-need-in-the-future-world-of-work
Metaverse https://mvs.org/
State of XR and Immersive Learning: https://immersivelrn.org/pages/state-of-xr-immersive-learning
Stephenson, N., 2003. Snow crash: A novel. Spectra.
Michael Edson: Prototyping the Smithsonian CommonsMichael Edson
Update 7/8/2010: we've posted the Smithsonian Commons Prototype http://www.si.edu/commons/prototype
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1. THREe dimensions
of foresight
Stuart Candy, PhD
Director, Situation Lab
Associate Professor of Design
Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA
#FromTheFutures
Columbia DSL
April 09, 02020
@futuryst / futuryst.blogspot.com
@sitlab / situationlab.org
4. “In a time of extreme change, From the
Futures attempts to collectively make sense of the
present, through the shared imagining and
prototyping of a better tomorrow.”
Source: fromthefutures.org
5. “Instead of just hoping to return to our old normal,
what would it mean to collectively muster our
courage, creativity and resilience to make the
futures we envision a reality?”
Source: fromthefutures.org
6. Most of us have extensive experience
with science / speculative fiction
images of the future
7.
8. We could have a very interesting
conversation about the ways in which
these stories do and do not prepare us
to navigate actual change in the world
9.
10. The field of futures studies or foresight
has emerged over the past half century
to tackle the challenges of thinking
more effectively about various possible
worlds that might actually come about
11. It has a more academic side
(e.g. understanding the “images of the
future” people carry and how these
influence action), and an applied side
(e.g. understanding how to help
organisations, companies and communities
of all kinds navigate change)
13. Over the past decade and half, building on this
foundation, my colleagues and I have been
developing new theories and practices that bridge in
particular to media, the arts and design…
14. Experiential futures:
“the design of situations and stuff from the
future to catalyse insight and change”
See: Candy & Dunagan (2017). Designing an Experiential Scenario, Futures, 86: 136-153
16. Today I’ll introduce futures/foresight in general,
and experiential futures in particular,
by talking about three kinds of thought
that these practices call for
28. The first serious game funded
by the CDC, Coral Cross (2009) was
an alternate reality game commissioned
by the Hawaii Department of Health
to support pandemic preparedness
30. Designed in late 2008 / early 2009 (early in
the days of social media), the story was based
on a flu pandemic set 2-3 years into the
future, and it imagined an effective peer-to-
peer emergency response in the islands,
coordinated on social media through an
(imaginary) organisation, Coral Cross
32. Shockingly, just weeks before the scheduled
launch of this painstakingly designed
pandemic preparedness alternate reality
game, there was an actual pandemic, the first
in over 40 years (H1N1 swine flu)
33. We retooled the project as an “emergent
reality game.” Since the pandemic was real,
Coral Cross had to be as well…
34. This story helps make the point about the
dimension of difference in two ways:
41. With a group of graduate students,*
we created a hypothetical product and
launched it as if it were real, at Canada’s largest
architecture and interior design show
* Situation Lab team at OCAD University (2015), Toronto: Bergur Ebbi Benediktsson, Nourhan Hegazy, Jennifer McDougall, and Prateeksha Singh
42. NaturePod™ (2015) put together the vogue for
“biophilic architecture” with the march of
screens into every aspect of our lives, taking
both to their logical (?) conclusion
57. There is an ‘experiential gulf’
between how we typically
represent/narrate futures
for serious purposes, and
what real situations feel like
on the ground
58. Thinking about change in the abstract,
at a high level, is one thing. But how
might we get under the skin?
59. If we want hypotheticals to make a real
difference, we need to experience that
difference for real
61. Plastic has in recent years become a kind of mini
environmental cause célèbre. A decade ago, for the
hundredth anniversary of mass plastic production,
we* did an installation at the California Academy of
Sciences to help put this issue on people’s radars.
* Stuart Candy, Jake Dunagan, Wallace J Nichols and Sarah Kornfeld
63. How to make the historical reality of
exponentially increasing plastic, and the
disturbing forecast (expected production
2010-2030 exceeding total ever
produced 1910-2010) register with
people at a gut level?
69. Situations
ABSTRACT
CONCRETE
Stuff
The Experiential Futures Ladder
@futuryst 2017
EXPERIENTIAL
GULF
Scenarios
Settings KINDS OF FUTURE;
VAGUE DESCRIPTIONS
SPECIFIC FUTURE
HISTORIES OR STATES
1:1-SCALE, VISITABLE
REPRESENTATIONS OF TIME
AND PLACE
ARTIFACTS OR
MATERIAL INSTANTIATIONS
85. How may this idea of diversity or plurality
of possible futures be used in practice?
86. Example: Hawaii 2050
See: Candy (2016). Ghosts of Futures Past. https://futuryst.blogspot.com/2016/08/ghosts-of-futures-past.html
87. A scenario from “Hawaii 2050”
Source: Candy, Dator, & Dunagan (2006). Four Futures for Hawaii 2050. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/253641086
88. To help kick off a public conversation and a process
intended to co-create a sustainability plan for
Hawaii (in 2006), we* turned four written scenarios
about the islands in the year 2050 into four
experiential scenarios for 500+ people to inhabit
* Stuart Candy and Jake Dunagan, then at Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, with a team of designers, improv actors and volunteers
89. Source: Stuart Candy / Hawaii Research Center
for Futures Studies 2006. Photos: Cyrus Camp
92. Example: The Time Machine
See: Candy (2013) in Briggs, ed. 72 Assignments. Paris: PCA Press. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305333152
93. The Time Machine is an experiential futures approach for art, design, and foresight
practitioners and learners to create a room-scale experience from the future.
Developed / deployed to date at:
• Carnegie Mellon University
• North Carolina State University, Durham NC
• CEDIM, Mexico City
• OCAD University, Toronto
• California College of the Arts, San Francisco
• National University of Singapore
94. Any changed future world would manifest
in countless rooms within that world
95.
96. A Time Machine is a room created to make it
possible to visit and immerse in a future world
97.
98. How can you make use of this principle
now? Especially since, in your teams,
you’ll be telling one story rather than a
whole set
103. Tool: The Thing From The Future
See: Candy (2018), “Gaming Futures Literacy.” In Miller, ed. Transforming the Future. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/312016855
104. The Thing From The Future is a card game for scaffolding imagination,
discussion and prototyping of specific things from countless alternative
futures. Co-designed with Jeff Watson (USC).
Deployed to date, for example, at:
• International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Geneva
• Museum of Tomorrow, Rio de Janeiro
• Nesta’s FutureFest, London
• UNDP, New York
• UNESCO, Paris
• Cook Inlet Tribal Council, Alaska
• Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• New York University
• The INK Conference, India
• Maker Festival, Toronto
• IDEO
• Dropbox (…and many more)
105. governance
future
there is a related to
what is it?
monumentjoyful
In a
#FutureThing by Stuart Candy and Jeff Watson | @sitlab 2018
106. governance
related to
what is it?
monumentjoyful
In a
future
there is a
#FutureThing by Stuart Candy and Jeff Watson | @sitlab 2018
107. THE FAMILY
future
there is a related to
what is it?
DEVICEFEMINIST
In a
#FutureThing by Stuart Candy and Jeff Watson | @sitlab 2018
108. THE FAMILY
what is it?
DEVICEFEMINIST
future
related toIn a there is a
#FutureThing by Stuart Candy and Jeff Watson | @sitlab 2018
113. First dimension: Difference.
The future is another place.
Look for seeds of change that could be really
transformative if they were to grow
114. Second dimension: Depth.
Any future that we get
will be as real and complex
as the present is.
We must try to not just think, but also feel,
our way into these future conditions,
to grapple with them effectively
115. Third dimension: Diversity.
The future is always multiple
potentials, not just one.
Look for something new and valuable
to bring to the ecology of thinkable futures
116. And futures imagined with
Difference, Depth, and Diversity
enable a fourth D:
Design
117. We can’t exercise wiser choices
without alternatives.
We won’t discern alternatives
without looking for them.
118. Not just successful organisation-
level navigation of change, but our
collective future as a species,
depends on using our capacity to
imagine worlds together –
“social foresight”
See: Candy (2010), The Futures of Everyday Life. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305280378
119. The risks of not having these
competencies built into our
societies and institutions are
increasingly obvious
120. At the same time, the huge upside
potential of making these ways of
thinking and designing normal is
only just starting to be seen