The document discusses the history and evolution of futures studies and foresight from its origins in utopian fiction to its current use in technology forecasting and policymaking. It traces key developments including the growth of science fiction in the 19th century, early attempts at systematic futures studies and technology forecasting in the early 20th century, the futures movement of the 1960s, and the establishment of the UK Foresight Programme in the 1990s. It analyzes how foresight has shifted from an emphasis on networking and prioritization to a focus on informing policy through more modest projects, and considers ongoing tensions around expertise, participation, and methodology in foresight practice.

1. Foresight: then and now (From Futures to Foresight) Ian Miles PREST/IoIR University of Manchester

3. Imagining a Better World Holbein From UTOPIA (1516) to the NEW ATLANTIS (1627) protoFS protoFS proto IS

24. UK (Technology) Foresight 2 Focus on networking and creating knowledge communities No overall priority-setting Much work on thematic and more “social” issues Problems of ownership in OST, DTI Crisis rapidly set in: review and early termination FS F … . IS

25. UK (Technology) Foresight 3 More modest, project-based work No overall prioritisation Primary aim is now informing policy, trans- departmentally: enhancing the role of science. Little effort to rewire innovation system. Most other countries following (diluted) F1 model, though some are more project-based FS F … . IS

26. UK (Technology) Foresight 1 – “Fully-Fledged Foresight”? Networking PROSPECTIVES Futures reports, scenarios, forecasts and visions Futures methods, forecasting techniques, modelling & visionary approaches, etc. PLANNING Priority lists, Strategic action plans Planning tools and techniques, OR and systems approaches, etc . PARTICIPATION Access to distributed knowledge, establishing and reinforcing networks Networking tools and techniques, groupwork and facilitation, survey approaches, etc Foresight FS F IS Informing and legitimising action, establishing preparedness Sharing visions. Exchanging knowledge, mutual understanding... Identifying indicators & determining goals, evaluation processes & mechanisms

27. Participative Elements enlarging the knowledge base Democracy – engaging Transition Management – Technocracy – stakeholders opening dialogue enlisting agents in visioning, action

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