Forests play a key role in infectious diseases that affect humans. Five fruit bat species have a significant link to Ebola virus transmission and deforestation in their natural habitats in African rainforests. Deforestation of these areas increases the risk of Ebola outbreaks by bringing bats that may carry the virus into closer contact with human populations. Ocean-atmosphere oscillations like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation can also predict periods of higher Ebola outbreak risk, giving observers up to a year of advance notice to prepare prevention and response efforts.

1. Forests as the key interface
between humans and infectious
diseases—what is the role of
CGIAR?
Prof. John E. Fa
CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia.
Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, UK.

2. Peterson, Bauers & Mills (2004) Pigott, Golding, Mylne, Huang et al. (2016)
Olivero, Fa, Real, Farfán, Márquez et al. (2017)
Case Study - Ebola virus
Ebola virus
distribution is
linked to African
rainforests

3. “Suspect-mammal” CHOROTYPES in Africa

4. Spatio-temporal
autocorrelation
Deforestation
Forest loss and risk of Ebola-virus transmission

5. There is significant bat-Ebola-deforestation link for:
- 5 fruit-bat species (Eidolon helvum, Epomops franqueti, Megaloglossus woermanni, Micropteropus pusillus and
Rousettus aegyptiacus)
- 4 of them are serologically related to the Ebola virus (only 8 Pteropodidae bat species are serologically related to
the EV) J Olivero , JE Fa, MA Farfán, AL Márquez, R Real, FJ Juste, SA Leendertz, R Nasi
20 species, Family Pteropodidae
Epomops franqueti
Human
activities
Non-human
factors
Do they overlap?
Fruit bats, Ebola-virus and forest loss

6. Main conclusions:
- 5 climatic oscillation indices are significantly teleconnected with EVD outbreaks (with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation,
PDO, being the most relevant index).
- The outbreak occurrence is favoured by negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDO) values 6 months to one
yearbefore.
- This teleconnection is more significant in the areas with intermediate biogeographical favourability to the
presence of the EV (i.e. in the margins of the rainforest domain).
- There are reliable chances for predicting high-EVD-risk periods with 6 to 12 months of anticipation (which is useful
for an EV observatory).
Any phenomenon depending on local weather can be connected to macroclimatic causes in addition to local
influences, as it is controlled by remote atmospheric and oceanic circulatory patterns that work on a large scale
EVD outbreaks and atmosphere oscillation indices (in
prep.)

7. Mammal
chorotypes
Favorable areas for the Ebola virus
Recent outbreak site:
Local mammal
species assemblage
EVD outbreaks
favored
by forest loss
Deforested areas
during the
last two years
Local meteorology
Increased chances
for outbreaks
two months later
Ocean-athmosphere oscillations
Increased chances
for outbreaks
during
the following year
Tools for prevention and response:
The challenge of predicting
risk of outbreaks
And now what?
Where?
When?