This document summarizes Matt Philip's presentation on NoEstimates forecasting with less effort and more accuracy. Some key points from the presentation include: reducing sources of variation can improve forecasting more than improving estimating skills; data and probabilistic forecasts are preferable to intuition and deterministic estimates; and focusing on delivering value quickly can reduce the need for detailed estimates. The presentation provided examples of techniques to reduce variation, biases to consider, and recommendations for incorporating probabilistic forecasting into projects.
Estimation is dead - long live sizing, by John Coleman 24Nov22.pdfOrderly Disruption
Estimation is dead - long live sizing, by John Coleman 24 Nov 22 to Agile Azerbaijan in person and Pozitive Technologies online
As per https://www.infoq.com/articles/sizing-forecasting-scrum/
Estimation is dead - long live sizing, by John Coleman 24Nov22.pdfOrderly Disruption
Estimation is dead - long live sizing, by John Coleman 24 Nov 22 to Agile Azerbaijan in person and Pozitive Technologies online
As per https://www.infoq.com/articles/sizing-forecasting-scrum/
Why your current prioritisation is Apples v Pears. Looking at the issues in your current prioritisation process. These slides were delivered in various Agile user groups in the UK Q3/4 2015.
Content of presentation is heavily influenced by Don Reinersten who created the idea of Cost of Delay and Joshua Arnold from Black Swan Farming, who has done a great job making the content more accessible.
There are a number of great scrum learning games "out there" and this one was developed by Alistair Cockburn. It is a classic that's great for agile scrum teams. I've taken a few liberties, inspected and adapted, and offer up my own recipe.
Immer mehr Organisationen setzen Flight Levels als ein Denkmodell ein, damit das Unternehmen agil am Markt agieren kann. Dafür braucht es sehr viel mehr, als einfach nur ein paar Teams zu agilisieren. In diesem Vortrag werde ich anhand eines Unternehmens zeigen, wie Flight Levels dafür verwendet werden, teamübergreifende Business Agilität zu erreichen. Ich werde auch darauf eingehen, welche Boards gebaut wurden, um agile Interaktionen zwischen den Teams zu etablieren und wie sich die Arbeit über die Boards bewegt, damit strategisches Alignment in der gesamten Organisation erreicht wird.
Flow Metrics: What They Are & Why You Need ThemTasktop
When it comes to assessing an IT transformation (such as Agile and DevOps), performance metrics have come under intense scrutiny. Traditional performance metrics, such as counting the number of lines of code and the number of software bugs should be used with caution, because there are bugs that are not worth fixing and code that is not worth maintaining. These old-school performance metrics represent activities, not outcomes. To visualize and optimize the business value of your software delivery, you need to find a way to measure business outcomes. To do that, we need flow metrics.
During this on-demand webinar, Dominica DeGrandis presents five key flow metrics that reveal trends on desirable business outcomes – such as faster time-to-market, responsiveness to customers, and predictable release timeframes – and explains how to implement them at your organization to measure and improve the impact and value of software products on your business.
Dual Track Agile Or, How I learned to stop worrying and love the scrumUXDXConf
In software there are two key types of work - discovery and delivery. However, that doesn't mean there are different people doing those jobs. If the whole team is responsible for product success, not just getting things built, then the whole team needs to understand and contribute to both kinds of work.
Dual track agile and the UXDX model both convey the approach of design and development working together.
Updated version at https://www.slideshare.net/GiulioRoggero/kanban-board-82363781
Do you have a team that works on both project and maintenance? Do you need to organize your team activities? Do you have a lot of activities in parallel and the time to market it's a problem? With a Kanban board and an Agile approach you can solve your problems!
Take a look of the animation of the slides to discover how it works.
Presentation to OU Agile special interest group 25 January 2017. Agile basics, Agile myths, and stories of breakthroughs and breakdowns in Agile adoption in learning design and course production.
Behind every great product is a great team doing work in a way that guarantees results. They are following a roadmap from the starting point to the end product. But a product roadmap can be elusive. This talk addresses why it is important and presents an approach to make one.
Actionable Agile Metrics for Predictability - Daniel VacantiAgile Montréal
Actionable Agile Metrics for Predictability
“When will it be done?” That's the first question customers ask once work is started. Your predictability is judged by the accuracy of your answer. Think about how many times you’ve been asked that question and how many times you’ve been wrong. That you’ve been wrong more times than right is not necessarily your fault. You have been taught to collect and analyze the wrong metrics. Until now.
About Daniel Vacanti
Daniel Vacanti is a 20+ year software industry veteran who has spent most of his career focusing on Lean and Agile practices. In 2007, he helped to develop the Kanban Method for knowledge work and managed the world’s first project implementation of Kanban that year. He has been conducting Lean-Agile training, coaching, and consulting ever since. In 2011 he founded ActionableAgile (previously Corporate Kanban) which provides industry-leading predictive analytics tools and services organizations that utilize Lean-Agile practices. In 2015 he published his book, “Actionable Agile Metrics for Predictability”, which is the definitive guide to flow-based metrics and analytics. Daniel holds an M.B.A. and regularly teaches a class on lean principles for software management at the University of California Berkeley.
An Agile mindset believes that diverse teams with complementary skills are best equipped to thrive in today’s business environments.
Many organizations, working with Agile methodologies, talk about changing mindsets. I know from extensive experience that Agile principles and practices by themselves will not lead to this kind of transformation. A real Agile transformation is about not just doing Agile, but being Agile.
‘Follow Agile’ mindset will only help us get into the water but ‘Being Agile’ mindset will help us swim in the current. Most Agile implementations fail and their practitioners cannot tell why. Managers jump onto the Agile bandwagon, and quickly discover that the change runs much deeper and wider than they’d been told. Worse yet, people decide for or against Agile without understanding it properly. It does not have to be this way. This will be an interactive workshop leading toward the Agility.
Having reviewed a number of Agile adoption approaches by big consulting companies given to organizations within the Kingdom, it's clear that many of them don't have the appropriate backgrounds to perform Agile transformations.
This session will discuss the Agile transformation adoption roadmap from real practitioners with numerous Agile adoptions in Saudi Arabia.
We will discuss what to try, what not to avoid, and some general things to consider.
To Estimate or Not to Estimate, is that the Question?TechWell
Wondering what NoEstimates means in practice, or why you would want to move toward NoEstimates? Perhaps you’ve heard the buzz or read Vasco Duarte’s book. Maybe you simply want to understand how you can spend less time estimating and more time delivering working software—all while providing your customers with some understanding of predictability. If so, Matthew Phillip will help you understand through lessons learned with NoEstimates what and to what degree different factors influence delivery time. Join Matthew to learn how to move from upfront intuition-based estimates to create a data-based probabilistic forecast that provides a more reliable way to talk about when stuff will be done—and expend less effort to do so. Learn to forecast when things will be done -- with less effort and more accuracy!
Why your current prioritisation is Apples v Pears. Looking at the issues in your current prioritisation process. These slides were delivered in various Agile user groups in the UK Q3/4 2015.
Content of presentation is heavily influenced by Don Reinersten who created the idea of Cost of Delay and Joshua Arnold from Black Swan Farming, who has done a great job making the content more accessible.
There are a number of great scrum learning games "out there" and this one was developed by Alistair Cockburn. It is a classic that's great for agile scrum teams. I've taken a few liberties, inspected and adapted, and offer up my own recipe.
Immer mehr Organisationen setzen Flight Levels als ein Denkmodell ein, damit das Unternehmen agil am Markt agieren kann. Dafür braucht es sehr viel mehr, als einfach nur ein paar Teams zu agilisieren. In diesem Vortrag werde ich anhand eines Unternehmens zeigen, wie Flight Levels dafür verwendet werden, teamübergreifende Business Agilität zu erreichen. Ich werde auch darauf eingehen, welche Boards gebaut wurden, um agile Interaktionen zwischen den Teams zu etablieren und wie sich die Arbeit über die Boards bewegt, damit strategisches Alignment in der gesamten Organisation erreicht wird.
Flow Metrics: What They Are & Why You Need ThemTasktop
When it comes to assessing an IT transformation (such as Agile and DevOps), performance metrics have come under intense scrutiny. Traditional performance metrics, such as counting the number of lines of code and the number of software bugs should be used with caution, because there are bugs that are not worth fixing and code that is not worth maintaining. These old-school performance metrics represent activities, not outcomes. To visualize and optimize the business value of your software delivery, you need to find a way to measure business outcomes. To do that, we need flow metrics.
During this on-demand webinar, Dominica DeGrandis presents five key flow metrics that reveal trends on desirable business outcomes – such as faster time-to-market, responsiveness to customers, and predictable release timeframes – and explains how to implement them at your organization to measure and improve the impact and value of software products on your business.
Dual Track Agile Or, How I learned to stop worrying and love the scrumUXDXConf
In software there are two key types of work - discovery and delivery. However, that doesn't mean there are different people doing those jobs. If the whole team is responsible for product success, not just getting things built, then the whole team needs to understand and contribute to both kinds of work.
Dual track agile and the UXDX model both convey the approach of design and development working together.
Updated version at https://www.slideshare.net/GiulioRoggero/kanban-board-82363781
Do you have a team that works on both project and maintenance? Do you need to organize your team activities? Do you have a lot of activities in parallel and the time to market it's a problem? With a Kanban board and an Agile approach you can solve your problems!
Take a look of the animation of the slides to discover how it works.
Presentation to OU Agile special interest group 25 January 2017. Agile basics, Agile myths, and stories of breakthroughs and breakdowns in Agile adoption in learning design and course production.
Behind every great product is a great team doing work in a way that guarantees results. They are following a roadmap from the starting point to the end product. But a product roadmap can be elusive. This talk addresses why it is important and presents an approach to make one.
Actionable Agile Metrics for Predictability - Daniel VacantiAgile Montréal
Actionable Agile Metrics for Predictability
“When will it be done?” That's the first question customers ask once work is started. Your predictability is judged by the accuracy of your answer. Think about how many times you’ve been asked that question and how many times you’ve been wrong. That you’ve been wrong more times than right is not necessarily your fault. You have been taught to collect and analyze the wrong metrics. Until now.
About Daniel Vacanti
Daniel Vacanti is a 20+ year software industry veteran who has spent most of his career focusing on Lean and Agile practices. In 2007, he helped to develop the Kanban Method for knowledge work and managed the world’s first project implementation of Kanban that year. He has been conducting Lean-Agile training, coaching, and consulting ever since. In 2011 he founded ActionableAgile (previously Corporate Kanban) which provides industry-leading predictive analytics tools and services organizations that utilize Lean-Agile practices. In 2015 he published his book, “Actionable Agile Metrics for Predictability”, which is the definitive guide to flow-based metrics and analytics. Daniel holds an M.B.A. and regularly teaches a class on lean principles for software management at the University of California Berkeley.
An Agile mindset believes that diverse teams with complementary skills are best equipped to thrive in today’s business environments.
Many organizations, working with Agile methodologies, talk about changing mindsets. I know from extensive experience that Agile principles and practices by themselves will not lead to this kind of transformation. A real Agile transformation is about not just doing Agile, but being Agile.
‘Follow Agile’ mindset will only help us get into the water but ‘Being Agile’ mindset will help us swim in the current. Most Agile implementations fail and their practitioners cannot tell why. Managers jump onto the Agile bandwagon, and quickly discover that the change runs much deeper and wider than they’d been told. Worse yet, people decide for or against Agile without understanding it properly. It does not have to be this way. This will be an interactive workshop leading toward the Agility.
Having reviewed a number of Agile adoption approaches by big consulting companies given to organizations within the Kingdom, it's clear that many of them don't have the appropriate backgrounds to perform Agile transformations.
This session will discuss the Agile transformation adoption roadmap from real practitioners with numerous Agile adoptions in Saudi Arabia.
We will discuss what to try, what not to avoid, and some general things to consider.
To Estimate or Not to Estimate, is that the Question?TechWell
Wondering what NoEstimates means in practice, or why you would want to move toward NoEstimates? Perhaps you’ve heard the buzz or read Vasco Duarte’s book. Maybe you simply want to understand how you can spend less time estimating and more time delivering working software—all while providing your customers with some understanding of predictability. If so, Matthew Phillip will help you understand through lessons learned with NoEstimates what and to what degree different factors influence delivery time. Join Matthew to learn how to move from upfront intuition-based estimates to create a data-based probabilistic forecast that provides a more reliable way to talk about when stuff will be done—and expend less effort to do so. Learn to forecast when things will be done -- with less effort and more accuracy!
Presentation by Em Campbell-Pretty and Adrienne Wilson at the Global SAFe Summit 2020.
Patterns for preparing a Feature Backlog for PI Planning for an Agile Release Train.
The service delivery review the missing agile feedback loop by Matthew PhillipAgile ME
Though the standard agile feedback loops -- product demo, team retrospective and automated tests — provide valuable awareness of health and fitness, many teams and their stakeholders struggle to find a reliable way to understand an important area of feedback, including their level of agility: the fitness of their service delivery. This session introduces the service-delivery review as the forum for this feedback. Participants will learn the basics of how to conduct a service-delivery review and the benefits, as well as typical fitness metrics. The context will be for software-delivery teams but the lessons will be applicable for any team, group or department that provides a service.
NoEstimates: Forecasting with Less Effort and More Accuracy by Matthew PhilipBosnia Agile
Wondering what NoEstimates means in practice or why you would want to try NoEstimates? Perhaps you’ve heard the buzz or read Vasco Duarte’s book. Maybe you simply want to understand how you can spend less time estimating and more time delivering working software—all while providing your customers with some understanding of predictability. If so, this group board game-based workshop will help you understand what and to what degree different factors influence delivery time. Join this session to learn how to move from upfront intuition-based estimates to create a data-based probabilistic forecast that provides a more reliable way to talk about when stuff will be done—and expend less effort to do so. Learn to forecast when things will be done -- with less effort and more accuracy!
How much of your time is wasted estimating story cards? We’ll explore some alternatives to estimating story cards and review real-world comparisons of tracking work using story points vs. counting story cards. Not sure when story card estimates are needed? We’ll discuss that too. Are you wondering if there is a better way to estimate projects that takes less effort but isn’t just a WAG? All discussions will be based on real-world examples and comparisons of alternatives for several projects. We’ll also discuss #NoEstimates and how it fits in.
2017 Music City Agile Conference: NoEstimates WorkshopMatthew Philip
Slides from my workshop as facilitated at the 2017 Music City Agile Conference in Nashville, Tennessee. https://2017.musiccityagile.org/schedule/the-noestimates-game
Measuring What Matters - Building Valuable, Effective & Efficient ReportingRick Galan
The talking points to the presentation are on the Notes tab.
This presentation was given at the Salt Lake City Search Engine Marketing Digital Marketing Conference (#slcsem) in August 2015. In it, I don't talk about KPIs, or the specific metrics that you should be measuring. Instead, I focus on what I have found to be really important - Building reporting that you can use, and building relationships so your reporting has value. I also discuss how building a report is like building a product. Then I finish off with some quick tips on making your reports better.
AB Testing and UX - a love story with numbers and people (by Craig Sullivan a...Northern User Experience
AB Testing and UX - a love story with numbers and people
Slides from the NUX6 talk by Craig Sullivan, Friday 27th October 2017.
2017.nuxconf.uk / nuxuk.org
Synopsis:
What’s wrong with the web these days? The mobile experience sucks. The customer experience sucks. It doesn’t work. It’s too hard to use. The text is too small. Nobody measures this happening. The interaction patterns suck. Nobody ever calls up to complain but nobody does anything anyway. Millions of people lose countless days to friction, poor design and frustrating moments on their devices.
There may be thousands of things you can fix that look promising – but how do you know where to start? What if you could measure what sucked, where it sucked and how big the problem was? Using lightweight research methods and tools, you can stop making excuses and start knowing exactly what to do. Life becomes much simpler and easier with a scientific method of optimising growth or delight within your product.
Craig has trained over 500 people on how to measure and optimise their product experience, finding 100M of ‘lost revenue’ using just one of the techniques you will learn. With reports, checklists, downloadable templates and toolkits for every budget and stage of growth – you can stop guessing tomorrow.
Agile transformation could be hard especialy while driven by the hype generated from the internet and companies around you. To begin with such revolution you must learn that change requires time, hence I should better say to start an evoloution.
How many problems other you might encounter on your path to agility?
How many pitfalls you will discover?
How many wheels you have to reinvent?
Hear ye, hear ye, an introductory guide to start Agile evolution!
Why Constraints are Good? A Case Study of an Enterprise Agile TransformationMatt Harasymczuk
Agile transformation requires understanding its rules by management. It is hard to leave status quo and change your way of thinking. It is especially hard when the previous model has been in use for many years. A frequent problem with Scrum / Kanban / Lean transformation is to go hard on deep water. Starting tommorow we're doing Scrum. Lack of understanding, communication chaos and rules distortion "just because daily is not working for us". What if take a different approach: slow and prudent? Let say iteratively. Gradually introduce another steps of chosen framework. However the question persists. How to effectively change our conservative organization into agile and constantly changing in response to business needs company?
Slides of the latest version (July 2018) of my Business Agility talk.
This talk is an extract of the "Introduction to Business Agility" workshops we run with for leadership teams to get a better understanding of agility in business and how to help their companies improve.
Define, Setup, Analyze and Communicate your Data DelugeMashMetrics
Digital Growth Unleashed 2018 - Define, Setup, Analyze and Communicate your Data Deluge
Thomas Bosilevac, Founder - Chief Insight Officer MashMetrics
Everyone wants to be “data-driven” right? … how can you manage what you don’t measure… Is data the new oil? The hyperbole is everywhere. Let’s be honest though, do you report on Quantity metrics like Revenue, Social “Likes”, or … gulp pageviews? Are you confused on when to use Quality metrics like Average Order Value, Retweets, Scroll Rate, CPC, Average Order Value, or (totally inaccurate) Bounce Rate and Time on Page?
This entire conference is surrounded by amazing techniques and tactics to increase and grow your traffic on PPC, SEO, Email, and other channels and improving engagement with Mobile Optimization, Testing Strategies and Tools, Personalization and so much more. Each of these techniques is gathering data. How can you go from just Collecting and Reporting all this information to actually Analyzing and Sharing stories?
Learn Effective and Productive ways to:
• Easily define which of the thousands of data sets you should concentrate on and when
• Learn best practice Setup techniques to assure Accurate, Actionable and Accessible data reporting
• Learn a simple Improve \ Grow framework to analyze your data for actionable insights
Don’t keep your data in a silo, Share it to make maximum impact in your organization
Evolution Not Revolution. A Case Study of an Enterprise Agile TransformationMatt Harasymczuk
Agile transformation requires understanding its rules by management. It is hard to leave status quo and change your way of thinking. It is especially hard when the previous model has been in use for many years. A frequent problem with Scrum / Kanban / Lean transformation is to go hard on deep water. Starting tommorow we're doing Scrum. Lack of understanding, communication chaos and rules distortion "just because daily is not working for us". What if take a different approach: slow and prudent? Let say iteratively. Gradually introduce another steps of chosen framework. However the question persists. How to effectively change our conservative organization into agile and constantly changing in response to business needs company?
Similar to Forecasting with Less Effort and More Accuracy (Agile Camp NY 2018) (20)
Slides as presented at the Lean Agile London / Lean Agile Global meetup, Oct. 20, 2022 (https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6989216827318882304/)
No (Lab) Jacket Required Workshop [Kanban Global Summit 2022]Matthew Philip
Slides as presented in my workshop at the 2022 Kanban Global Summit in San Diego, USA, 23 Aug 2022.
https://register.kanbanevents.com/event/52b366e6-e669-4ebc-9da2-52f4fa47c8ba/websitePage:645d57e4-75eb-4769-b2c0-f201a0bfc6ce
The 8 Stances of a Transformational LeaderMatthew Philip
Patterned after the popular "Eight Stances of a Scrum Master," this talks introduces the eight stances -- "mental or emotional positions adopted with respect to something" -- of leaders at all levels who want to enable high-performing people, teams and organizations. To improve organizational outcomes, the eight stances are aimed at:
- Reducing friction to allow teams to do what they do best
- Fostering a learning environment to enable high performance, mastery and innovation
- Creating aligned autonomy to scalably connect strategy to action
Strategy Deployment: Aligning Action to VisionMatthew Philip
Strategy Deployment is any form of organizational improvement in which solutions emerge from the people closest to the problems. This is an example of how to bring about such improvement through fast, focused, collaborative activities like Visioning, X-Matrix and Experiment Canvas.
Metrics at Every (Flight) Level [2020 Agile Kanban Istanbul FlowConf]Matthew Philip
Slides as presented on Dec 8, 2020 at FlowConf organized by Agile Kanban Istanbul. https://www.flowconf.com/
Organizational change often stalls out at departmental boundaries, whether that is IT or another division. How do we help organizations connect vertically and horizontally to realize the outcomes that they have when undertaking large-scale change efforts?
Join this session to learn from a case study of a bank that combined flight levels and metrics to bridge their departmental boundaries and recognize gains not only in software delivery effectiveness but unifying higher-level strategy.
Stop writing stories, start validating working softwareMatthew Philip
Slides as presented at the 2020 Ágiles Latam Conference.
Abstract:
Barry O’Reilly exhorts today’s leaders to “break the cycle of behaviors that were effective in the past but are no longer relevant in the current business climate, and now limit or may even stand in the way of your success.” After more than two decades of writing, refining, grooming, estimating and documenting user stories, it’s time to unlearn them.
In a vast and sad irony, user stories have become the heavyweight documentation and process that they were meant to replace. This session proposes that we strip away the accrued behaviors and get back to the heart of agile and focus on delivering — and measuring progress by — working software.
No (Lab) Jacket Required: Designing Experiments for Learning [XP2020 Conference]Matthew Philip
Slides as presented at the XP2020 Conference (Copenhagen/Online) by Matthew Philip (Accenture | SolutionsIQ).
Abstract
Hypothesis-Driven Development is thinking about the development of new ideas, products and services – even organizational change – as a series of experiments to determine whether an expected outcome will be achieved, so we need to know how to design and run experiments properly. This workshop session helps participants understand the importance of using experiments to help teams and organizations learn and improve, while giving hands-on practice in designing experiments to yield measurable evidence for that learning. We’ll even play a couple of inductive-logic games to get us in the mindset of how to write tests to validate — and invalidate — our hypotheses in order to acquire knowledge. Whether you’re in product development of organizational improvement, for those wanting to move from projects to experiments in the quest of continuous learning and evolutionary improvement, this session will provide the tools and mindset for going beyond simply calling something an experiment to conducting experiments with the proper rigor to maximize learning.
This 60-minute workshop session helps participants:
understand the importance of using experiments to help teams and organizations learn and improve
gain hands-on practice in designing experiments to yield measurable evidence for that learning
understand how to properly measure outcomes without confirmation bias
https://www.agilealliance.org/xp2020/xp-2020-online-program/industry-and-practice-abstracts/#Philip
From Andon to Yokoten: Japanese for AgilistsMatthew Philip
Slides as presented at the 2020 Lean Agile US conference (https://www.leanagileus.com/schedule-2020).
Kanban, Andon, Kaizen as we are using these words in our English-speaking knowledge workplaces, but what do they mean? The fact that many of these Japanese terms originate in manufacturing complicates matters. We all discuss what they mean and why they are important in knowledge work today and go beyond the simple buzzwords. To help us remember not only the words but, more importantly, the concepts, we all use our own version of the popular Point travelers books so that participants can have a little fun learning.
No (Lab) Jacket Required: Designing Experiments for Learning [2019 Flowcon]Matthew Philip
Slides as presented during the workshop with Karl Scotland at Flowcon, Paris, Dec. 12, 2019. https://www.flowcon.fr/
Hypothesis-Driven Development is thinking about the development of new ideas, products and services – even organizational change – as a series of experiments to determine whether an expected outcome will be achieved, so we need to know how to design and run experiments properly.
This session helps participants understand the importance of using experiments to help teams and organizations learn and improve, while giving hands-on practice in designing experiments to yield measurable evidence for that learning. We’ll even play a couple of inductive-logic games to get us in the mindset of how to write tests to validate – and invalidate – our hypotheses in order to acquire knowledge.
Whether you’re in product development or organizational improvement, for those wanting to move from projects to experiments in the quest of continuous learning and evolutionary improvement, this session will provide the tools and mindset for going beyond simply calling something an experiment, to conducting experiments with the proper rigor to maximize learning.
Slides as presented at the 2019 Prairie DevCon Deliver Conference. http://www.prdcdeliver.com/
Leadership at Every Level: Practices for Aligned Autonomy
What does it mean to have leadership at every level of an organization? How do you create aligned autonomy in your team or organization? This talk connects the philosophy of intent-based leadership with practices that enable you to realize the benefits of aligned autonomy, regardless of where your name is in your org chart. By discovering virtual safety nets and vision balloons, you’ll learn how to pragmatically establish psychological safety and alignment of purpose, two of the core traits of high-performing teams.
No (Lab) Jacket Required [Agile Midwest Conference]Matthew Philip
Slides as presented at the 2019 Agile Midwest Conference.
https://agilemidwest.org
Abstract: Hypothesis-Driven Development is thinking about the development of new ideas, products and services – even organizational change – as a series of experiments to determine whether an expected outcome will be achieved, so we need to know how to design and run experiments properly.
This session helps participants understand the importance of using experiments to help teams and organizations learn and improve, while giving hands-on practice in designing experiments to yield measurable evidence for that learning.
Leadership at Every Level: Practices for Aligned AutonomyMatthew Philip
[Slides from track talk at Lean Agile US 2019]
What does it mean to have leadership at every level of an organization? How do you create aligned autonomy in your team or organization? This talk connects the philosophy of intent-based leadership with practices that enable you to realize the benefits of aligned autonomy, regardless of where your name is in your org chart. By discovering virtual safety nets and vision balloons, you’ll learn how to pragmatically establish safety and alignment of purpose, two of the core traits of high-performing teams.
http://www.leanagileus.com/ #leanagileus19
Portfolio kanban (St. Louis Agile Product Ownership Meetup)Matthew Philip
Slides as presented at the St. Louis Agile Product Ownership Meetup, Dec. 10, 2018. https://www.meetup.com/Agile-Product-Ownership/events/tnhplqyxqbnb/
Thriving (Not Merely Surviving) the First Year: Redesigning the Onboarding Ex...Matthew Philip
Slides as presented at XP2018 Conference, Porto, Portugal in the Agile in Education and Training/Building competence in industry track https://www.agilealliance.org/xp2018/program/
The Team Member and Guest Experience - Lead and Take Care of your restaurant team. They are the people closest to and delivering Hospitality to your paying Guests!
Make the call, and we can assist you.
408-784-7371
Foodservice Consulting + Design
Artificial intelligence (AI) offers new opportunities to radically reinvent the way we do business. This study explores how CEOs and top decision makers around the world are responding to the transformative potential of AI.
Modern Database Management 12th Global Edition by Hoffer solution manual.docxssuserf63bd7
https://qidiantiku.com/solution-manual-for-modern-database-management-12th-global-edition-by-hoffer.shtml
name:Solution manual for Modern Database Management 12th Global Edition by Hoffer
Edition:12th Global Edition
author:by Hoffer
ISBN:ISBN 10: 0133544613 / ISBN 13: 9780133544619
type:solution manual
format:word/zip
All chapter include
Focusing on what leading database practitioners say are the most important aspects to database development, Modern Database Management presents sound pedagogy, and topics that are critical for the practical success of database professionals. The 12th Edition further facilitates learning with illustrations that clarify important concepts and new media resources that make some of the more challenging material more engaging. Also included are general updates and expanded material in the areas undergoing rapid change due to improved managerial practices, database design tools and methodologies, and database technology.
Oprah Winfrey: A Leader in Media, Philanthropy, and Empowerment | CIO Women M...CIOWomenMagazine
This person is none other than Oprah Winfrey, a highly influential figure whose impact extends beyond television. This article will delve into the remarkable life and lasting legacy of Oprah. Her story serves as a reminder of the importance of perseverance, compassion, and firm determination.
Forecasting with Less Effort and More Accuracy (Agile Camp NY 2018)
1. # a g i l e c a m p 2 0 1 8 | @ m a t t p h i l i p
NO ESTIMATES
Forecasting with Less Effort and More Accuracy
2. @mattphilip #agilecamp2018
ESTIMATES, PLEASE!
▫︎ Number of triples that Babe Ruth hit in his career
▫︎ Distance in km of Chile north to south
▫︎ Year in which Newark was founded
▫︎ Windows in the Gateway Arch in St. Louis
Aim for 75%
confidence
3. @mattphilip #agilecamp2018
ESTIMATES, PLEASE!
▫︎ Number of triples that Babe Ruth hit in his career (136)
▫︎ Distance in km of Chile north to south (4,270 km)
▫︎ Year in which Newark was founded (1666)
▫︎ Windows in the Gateway Arch in St. Louis (32; 16 per side)
5. @mattphilip #agilecamp2018
WHAT NOESTIMATES IS NOT SAYING
▫︎ You are evil if you estimate
▫︎ All estimates are totally useless
▫︎ Stop doing your successful estimating practice
▫︎ Stop having the conversations to understand/analyze/
break down work
▫︎ Work items must be the same size
▫︎ You must place your full faith and confidence in Monte
Carlo forecasts
6. @mattphilip #agilecamp2018
WHAT NOESTIMATES IS SAYING
▫︎ Know why you are estimating
▫︎ Discover for yourself how good you are at estimating
(measure)
▫︎ Keep doing the things that help you understand the work
▫︎ Upfront estimates need to be held loosely
▫︎ If you focus on delivering value quickly, you obviate the
need for Iron Triangle considerations
7. @mattphilip #agilecamp2018
MY NOESTIMATES MANIFESTO
… We have come to value:
Reducing sources of variation over Improving estimating
Data over Intuition*
Probabilistic over Deterministic
Minimal Viable Product over Full scope
That is, while there is value in the items on the right, we value
the items on the left more.
*Neil Killick uses “empiricism over guesswork”
15. @mattphilip #agilecamp2018
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS
Analyze Code Test DeployDesign
Wait for approval
Wait for staff
availability
Rework
Wait for API
availability
Switch to
higher-priority work
Wait for approval
Wait for
blocker
removal
17. @mattphilip #agilecamp2018
WHAT’S GOING ON?
Low process efficiency (typically 5-15%
in software delivery) means that even if
we nailed the effort estimates … we
would be accurately predicting 5-15% of
elapsed delivery time!
— Troy Magennis
18. @mattphilip #agilecamp2018
DO YOU ASSUME CORRELATION?
Is the initial sizing a good predictor for when you can get your stuff?
In our case, the surprising truth was ”no.”
— Mattias Skarin, Real-World Kanban
20. @mattphilip #agilecamp2018
SOURCES OF VARIATION
Waiting for
availability
Rework
Team
dependencies
Stages in
team
development
(Tuckman)
Steps/
handoffs
Selection
policy
Essential
complication
Accidental
complication
System
dependencies
Work In
Progress
Technology/
domain/
product
Specialization
Team
composition
Multitasking/
context
switching
Collaboration
policy
Blockers
22. @mattphilip #agilecamp2018
WHAT YOU CAN DO ABOUT VARIATION
▫︎Lower WIP/System WIP
▫︎Five Focusing Steps
▫︎Blocker clustering
▫︎Reduce workflow stages
▫︎Explicit policies
▫︎Cost of Delay scheduling, sequencing and selection
▫︎Reduce “expedites”
Lean-Kanban
23. @mattphilip #agilecamp2018
WHAT YOU CAN DO ABOUT VARIATION
▫︎“Agile 101” (simple, decoupled design; thin vertical
slices; pairing)
▫︎Identify/make visible/measure dependencies
▫︎Bigger teams (to reduce dependencies)
▫︎Collaborate/Share work (Dimitar Bakardzhiev)
▫︎Spike and stabilize (Dan North)
▫︎Reduce accidental complexity (Liz Keogh)
Team
Why?
24. @mattphilip #agilecamp2018
POLICIES TO REDUCE VARIATION
▫︎We will only start new work at about the same rate that
we finish old work.
▫︎We will make every reasonable effort to finish all work
that is started and minimize wasted effort due to
discarded work items
▫︎If work becomes blocked, we will do everything we can
do unblock that work as expeditiously as possible.
▫︎We will closely monitor our policies around the order in
which we pull items through our system so that some
work items do not sit and age unnecessarily.
— Daniel Vacanti, When Will It Be Done?
30. @mattphilip #agilecamp2018
KEOGH’S “SCALE OF IGNORANCE”
1
Just about
everyone in the
world has done
this.
Lots of people have
done this, including
someone on our team.2
Someone in our company
has done this, or we have
access to expertise.3Someone in the
world did this, but
not in our
organization (and
probably at a
competitor).
4
Nobody in the world
has ever done this
before.
5
36. @mattphilip #agilecamp2018
VACANTI’S VERITY
When making a forecast (predicting the future),
you have to accept that there is more than one
possible outcome. Therefore… A forecast is a
calculation about the future that includes both
a range and a probability of that range
occurring.
44. @mattphilip #agilecamp2018
STRAIGHT-LINE (AVERAGE) FORECASTS
Team A Team B
Work item #1 5 days 3 days
Work item #2 1 day 3 days
Work item #3 3 days 3 days
Average 3 days 3 days
3-day delivery time
expectancy
66% 100%
48. @mattphilip #agilecamp2018
TO ESTIMATE OR NOT TO ESTIMATE?
NeverEstimateAnything
AlwaysEstimateEverything
Estimate Default Behavior Don’t estimate
Effort Factors All sources of variation
Intuition Approach Data
Deterministic Forecast Type Probabilistic
Tasks in hours Level of Detail Work items in days
High Effort Spent Low
Estimating better Improvement Aim Reducing variation
Commitment Management Service Expectations
49. @mattphilip #agilecamp2018
BETTER QUESTIONS TO ASK
@mattphilip
▫︎In what context would estimates bring value, and what
are we willing to do about it when they don’t? – Woody
Zuill
▫︎How much time do we want to invest in this? – Matt
Wynne
▫︎What can you do to maximize value and reduce risk in
planning and delivery? – Vasco Duarte
▫︎Can we build a minimal set of functionality and then
learn what else we must build?
▫︎Would we/you not invest in this work? If not, at what
order-of-magnitude estimate would we/you take that
action?
▫︎What actions would be different based on an estimate?
50. @mattphilip #agilecamp2018
HOW TO GET STARTED (PROJECT IN PROGRESS)
1. Continue to discuss the work to analyze it and break it into thin
vertical slices.
2. Start tracking two pieces of data for each work item: commit
date and delivery date.
3. After accumulating 10 data points, run a Monte Carlo
simulation to provide a probabilistic forecast.
4. Begin answering the “When” question using data, either at the
project level or individual work-item level.
5. Validate whether the probabilistic forecasts match what actually
occurs.
6. If the forecasts are helpful, wean your team off estimating.
7. Focus improvement efforts on reducing the sources of variation.
51. @mattphilip #agilecamp2018
HOW TO GET STARTED (NEW PROJECT)
1. Ask the “better questions” above about the use and
importance of estimates.
2. Use reference-class data (similar delivery times from other
projects in similar tech stacks with similar teams) to provide an
initial probabilistic forecast
3. As soon as you accumulate 10 data points, run a Monte Carlo
simulation to provide an updated probabilistic forecast.
4. Continually reforecast when you get more information.
52. @mattphilip #agilecamp2018
REFERENCES AND FURTHER EXPLORATION
▫︎ noestimatesbook.com (Vasco Duarte)
▫︎ infoq.com/articles/noestimates-monte-carlo (Dimitar Bakardzhiev)
▫︎ priceonomics.com/why-are-projects-always-behind-schedule
▫︎ http://scrumandkanban.co.uk/estimation-meets-cynefin/
▫︎ ronjeffries.com
▫︎ Lizkeogh.com
▫︎ https://neilkillick.wordpress.com/
▫︎ http://zuill.us/WoodyZuill/
▫︎ mattphilip.wordpress.com/noestimates-game
▫︎ When Will It Be Done? (Dan Vacanti)
▫︎ focusedobjective.com (Troy Magennis)
▫︎ actionableagile.com (Dan Vacanti)
▫︎ kanbanize.com
▫︎ scrum.org