Public lecture on agriculture, health, and the environment, focused on dietary choices including meat consumption.

1. Food For All on A Changing Planet
Photo: Matthieu Paley, National Geographic
Kimberly Nicholas
Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies, Lund, Sweden
www.kimnicholas.com
@KA_Nicholas

2. 2

3. Image:MarkVogel

4. 4

5. Smallholders: 1/3 people, grow 70% of food
5
Photo: Martin Mejia/AP, in The Guardian

6. Photo: Reuters/Paulo Whitaker
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12% ice-free land used for crops
(size of South America)
Ramankutty et al., 2008; Leff et al., 2004

7. Photo: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
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22% ice-free land used for grazing livestock
(size of Africa)
Ramankutty et al., 2008; Leff et al., 2004

8. Land is limited on the blue planet…
NASA PPM
8

9. ALL water on Earth
(1384 km sphere)
Liquid fresh water
(270 km sphere)
Fresh water in
lakes & rivers
(56km sphere)
Data from Shiklomanov, In Gleick 1993,“Water in Crisis.”
Visualization by USGS Water Science Photo Gallery
Water Resources Are Limited…
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10. Agricultural production is 92%
of human water footprint
Hoekstra and Mekonnen, 2012, PNAS
Photos:NationalGeographic
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11. Traditional fertilizer
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Photos: Peter Essick, National Geographic

12. Modern fertilizer
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Photos: Peter Essick, National Geographic Photos: UNEP 2011, National Geographic

13. 13
Livestock manure:
from valuable nutrient to toxic waste

14. Livestock “probably largest sectoral source
of water pollution”
(In US: 55% erosion, 37% pesticides, 33% N & P)
(FAO, 2006, Livestock’s Long Shadow)
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Photo:
NASA

15. We’re losing diversity
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http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/07/food-ark/food-variety-graphic

16. We need a new food paradigm
total agricultural production
real food production
food security goals
environmental goals
food distribution and access
resilience of food system
greenhouse gasemissions
biodiversity loss unsustainable water withdrawals
water pollution
minimum goals for 2050
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Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature

17. Right now, we have too little food security…
Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature

18. … and too much environmental harm
Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature

19. We need more real, fair & resilient food
Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature

20. … and less environmental damage
Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature

21. Which causes more global warming?
Photo: Jodi Cobb, National Geographic Photo: Lee Turmpore, National Geographic

22. Livestock are major greenhouse gas sources
Photo: Jodi Cobb, National Geographic Photo: Lee Turmpore, National Geographic
Sources: FAO, 2006, Livestock’s Long Shadow; 20-year global warming potentials: IPCC WG1 2013, Table 8.A.1; Transport: IPCC WG3 2014, SPM
18%
Total greenhouse gas emissions (CO2-equivalent):
14%
• 37% methane (84x stronger than CO2)
• 65% nitrous oxide (264x stronger than CO2)

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Henson, 2011, “Warming World: Impacts by Degree.”
Climate change threatens crop yields

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What about quality?

25. Climate change threatens wine quality
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Nicholas, 2015, Scientific AmericanGraphic: Jen Christiansen, Scientific American

26. Climate change threatens wine quality
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Nicholas, 2015, Scientific AmericanGraphic: Jen Christiansen, Scientific American

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Hunger remains a problem for 1/8

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Progress in poverty & food security
FAO, IFAD, & WFP (2013): State of Food Insecurity in the World

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Food has never been so plentiful
Source: Our World In Data, Max Roser

30. What’s the leading determinant of
health around the world?
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31. Source: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
What we eat determines global health

32. 32
Source: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
Diets kill more than disease

33. Only 59% of calories produced become food
Current crops could feed 4 billion more if fed directly to
people

34. Global meat consumption has
increased dramatically since 1960
Godfray et al., 2010, Science

35. https://xkcd.com/1338/

36. Slide courtesy Emily Cassidy. Source: Cassidy et al., 2013,
Meat is inefficient to produce human nutrition

37. Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS
Beef uses 28x more land
Compared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs
beef

38. Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS
Beef uses 11x more water
Compared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs
beef

39. Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS
Beef produces 5x more greenhouse gases
Compared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs
beef

40. Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS
Beef produces 6x more reactive nitrogen
Compared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs

41. Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS
Beef has the largest footprint of
animal products

42. How much meat are we consuming?
Data: FAO 2013; map: chartsbin.com

43. How much meat is recommended?
~0.7 grams / kilogram
90 kilogram person (200
lbs)
63 grams per day = 23 kilograms per year
Otten et al., 2006.
Dietary Reference Intakes: The Essential Guide to Nutrient
Requirements. National Academies Press.
Slide from Emily Cassidy

44. Source: FAO Food Balance Shee
Slide from Emily Cassidy

45. Source: FAO Food Balance She
Slide from Emily Cassidy
Recommended
intake
Most countries are consuming more meat than
recommended for health - and the environment

46. How much meat are we consuming?
Data: FAO 2013; map: chartsbin.com
Too much!Ukraine: 48.5 kg/person
Recommended level

47. How can we do better?

48. Health and environmental goals align in
plant-based diets

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Sweden’s new diet guidelines:
health + environment
2015. “Find your way to
eat greener, not too
much and be active”

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Stop wasting 30-40% of food grown
http://itm.marcelww.com/inglorious/

51. Urban Food Forestry
Clark and Nicholas, 2013, Landscape Ecology
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52. Urban trees could meet substantial
food needs
Very Food
Insecure:
Plant 1%
city land
Recommended fruit intake:
Plant 2% city land
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Clark and Nicholas, 2013, Landscape Ecology
Case study in Burlington, Vermont, USA

53. City planners recognize benefits of trees for
wildlife…
Clark and Nicholas, 2013, Landscape Ecology
“wildlife”
N= 30 urban forestry master plans
80
60
40
20
Percentmentioningconcept
AndreaColon
77%
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54. …but not for people.
Brendan
Callahan
Clark and Nicholas, 2013, Landscape Ecology
13%
“wildlife” “food”
N= 30 urban forestry master plans
80
60
40
20
Percentmentioningconcept
AndreaColon
77%
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2 in BC! Saanich and Selchelt

55. “In terms of immediacy… and
feasibility… [reduced meat
consumption] is clearly the most
attractive opportunity. Give up
meat for one day a week initially,
and decrease it from there.”
Decrease meat consumption
Dr. Rajendra Pachauri
Chair of IPCC
Quoted in The Guardian, 7 September 2008
Photo: Elizabeth Rui

56. Data: Scarborough et al., 2014, Climatic Change. Graphic: Brad Plumer, vox.com

57. Data: Scarborough et al., 2014, Climatic Change. Graphic: Brad Plumer, vox.com
Smaller portions of meat, meat-free meals go a long way

58. “Meat is a wasteful use of water
and creates a lot of greenhouse
gases. It puts enormous pressure
on the world’s resources. A
vegetarian diet is better.”
Go further
Lord Nicholas Stern
Former World Bank chief economist
Quoted in The Daily Mail, 27 October 2009

59. Data: Scarborough et al., 2014, Climatic Change. Graphic: Brad Plumer, vox.com
Vegetarians had half the carbon footprint of heavy meat eaters
Fish-eaters and vegetarians had similar carbon footprints
Vegans go the extra mile

60. “We conclude that
reduced ruminant meat and
dairy consumption will be
indispensable for reaching
the 2°C target
with a high probability, unless
unprecedented advances in
technology take place.”
Hedenus et al., 2014, Climatic

61. EAT Forum 2014
Some exciting models
Picture from @kaityarnall

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Quote by Michael Pollan; graphic design by Rob Kelley, namtab.com

63. We vote with our forks three times every day
Photo: Seven Stans, National Geographic

64. If we’re serious about
addressing climate
change,
we have to get serious
about reducing meat
consumption.
Image: Bill Hogan on vox.com

65. High-impact actions for individuals to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions
65
Wynes & Nicholas, in prep
Based on:
• 42 sources (25
peer-reviewed)
• 16 countries
• 161 scenarios