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Image:	
  Mark	
  Vogel	
  
A	
  taste	
  of	
  the	
  future:	
  	
  
Wine	
  in	
  a	
  changing	
  climate	
  	
  
Prof...
January 2015, ScientificAmerican.com 61
Will We Still Enjoy
Pin t Noir?Winegrowers are trying to preserve the flavor of you...
January 2015, ScientificAmerican.com 61
Will We Still Enjoy
Pin t Noir?Winegrowers are trying to preserve the flavor of you...
Wine	
  in	
  the	
  world	
  
Viers,	
  Williams,	
  Nicholas	
  et	
  al.,	
  2013,	
  ConservaKon	
  LeRers	
  	
  
Chile
Portugal
Argentina
New Zealand
“Great	
  wine	
  is	
  grown,	
  not	
  made”	
  
Photos	
  from	
  Nicholas,	
  2015,	
  ScienKfic	
  American	
  
	
  (a...
www.lake-­‐geneva-­‐region.ch	
  
physical	
  use	
  
experienKal	
  use	
  
winetasKngguy.com	
  
symbolic	
  
gusKbus.cz...
January 2015, ScientificAmerican.com 61
Will We Still Enjoy
Pin t Noir?Winegrowers are trying to preserve the flavor of you...
Winegrapes	
  &	
  climate	
  closely	
  linked	
  
Chuine	
  et	
  al.,	
  2004,	
  Nature	
  
Climate	
  drivers	
  of	
  winegrape	
  yields	
  in	
  California	
  
• High wine grape yields favored by:
• warm April,...
Winegrape	
  price	
  sensiKve	
  to	
  temperature	
  
Central	
  Valley	
  
North	
  Coast	
  Central	
  
Coast	
  
Mean...
January 2015, ScientificAmerican.com 61
Will We Still Enjoy
Pin t Noir?Winegrowers are trying to preserve the flavor of you...
What Everyone Needs to Know
About Climate Change…
in 3 Seconds or Less!
14
National Geographic redrawn Arctic maps, 2015
Source: NASA
What Everyone Needs to Know
About Climate Change…
in 3 Seconds or Less!
1. The climate is warming
2. It’s us
...
Figure SPM.3
Multiple observed indicators of a changing global climate
All Figures © IPCC 2013
It’s warming
What’s	
  warming	
  the	
  world?	
  
17	
  hRp://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-­‐whats-­‐warming-­‐the-­‐world/	
  
So...
It’s	
  not	
  Earth’s	
  orbit	
  
18	
  hRp://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-­‐whats-­‐warming-­‐the-­‐world/	
  
Sourc...
It’s	
  not	
  sunspots	
  
19	
  hRp://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-­‐whats-­‐warming-­‐the-­‐world/	
  
Source:	
  @e...
It’s	
  not	
  volcanoes	
  
20	
  hRp://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-­‐whats-­‐warming-­‐the-­‐world/	
  
Source:	
  @...
Natural	
  causes	
  aren’t	
  warming	
  the	
  world	
  	
  
21	
  hRp://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-­‐whats-­‐warmi...
What	
  about	
  human	
  factors?	
  
22	
  hRp://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-­‐whats-­‐warming-­‐the-­‐world/	
  
So...
It’s	
  us:	
  Current	
  warming	
  is	
  human-­‐caused	
  
23	
  hRp://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-­‐whats-­‐warmin...
James	
  Powell,	
  2012,	
  desmogblog.com	
  (independent	
  study,	
  not	
  peer-­‐reviewed)	
  
We’re	
  sure	
  
Henson	
  2011,	
  US	
  NaKonal	
  Research	
  Council,	
  based	
  on	
  Solomon	
  et	
  al,	
  2011,	
  US	
  NAS	
  
...
We	
  can	
  fix	
  it!	
  	
  We	
  can	
  fix	
  it!	
  	
  
January 2015, ScientificAmerican.com 61
Will We Still Enjoy
Pin t Noir?Winegrowers are trying to preserve the flavor of you...
Sugar	
  level	
  (degrees	
  Brix)	
  
Long-­‐term	
  harvest	
  records	
  
Date	
   Slide	
  from	
  Leanne	
  Webb	
  
Sugar	
  level	
  (degrees	
  Brix)	
  
Pushing	
  back	
  recording	
  dates	
  
Date	
   Slide	
  from	
  Leanne	
  Webb...
30	
  
What	
  about	
  quality?	
  
Climate	
  change	
  threatens	
  wine	
  quality	
  
31	
  
Nicholas,	
  2015,	
  Scien0fic	
  American	
  	
  Graphic:	
 ...
Climate	
  change	
  threatens	
  wine	
  quality	
  
32	
  
Nicholas,	
  2015,	
  Scien0fic	
  American	
  	
  Graphic:	
 ...
Unchecked	
  climate	
  change	
  would	
  rewrite	
  
the	
  global	
  wine	
  map	
  	
  
Map	
  from	
  Nicholas,	
  20...
Winners & losers under climate change
Rathfinney.com	
  
Rathfinney.com	
  
Rathfinney.com	
  
Rathfinney.com	
  
Rathfinney.com	
  
Pic	
  of	
  English	
  vs.	
  CA	
  vineyards	
  vs.	
  
champagne	
  	
  
January 2015, ScientificAmerican.com 61
Will We Still Enjoy
Pin t Noir?Winegrowers are trying to preserve the flavor of you...
The	
  Climate	
  Challenge:	
  Bending	
  the	
  Curve	
  
UNEP	
  Gap	
  Report	
  2016	
  
Global	
  annual	
  greenhou...
Graph:	
  IPCC	
  WG1,	
  2013	
  SPM;	
  aqer	
  Luers	
  &	
  Moser	
  2006	
  
“Avoid	
  what	
  we	
  can’t	
  manage,...
Climate	
  miKgaKon	
  +	
  adaptaKon	
  “wedges”	
  
Diffenbaugh	
  et	
  al.,	
  2011,	
  ERL	
  
Source:	
  Sonoma	
  Index-­‐Tribune	
  
What	
  can	
  farmers	
  do	
  to	
  adapt?	
  
AdaptaKon	
  acKons	
  get	
  harder	
  with	
  
more	
  warming	
  
Nicholas	
  and	
  Durham,	
  2012,	
  Global	
  Envi...
AdapKng	
  to	
  Vineyard	
  Stresses	
  
•  Pests	
  &	
  diseases	
  
– Insects	
  	
  
– Fungal	
  	
  
•  Climate	
  v...
AdaptaKon	
  to	
  Physical	
  Stresses	
  
Diagrams:	
  Beuga	
  et	
  al.,	
  2004	
  
Frost	
  and	
  heat	
  
Canopy	
...
New Trellising Could Shade and Cool
Fruit, and Increase Quality
Previously	
  reported	
  light	
  intercepKon	
  (Dokoozl...
Adaptation in Action: Vineyard Cooling Trial
°C
Courtesy of Walsh Vineyards Management
The over-vine cooling treatment was...
Biological	
  AdaptaKon	
  Strategies	
  
IPM/beneficial	
  insects	
  
Prune	
  for	
  frost	
  protecKon	
   Spray	
  pes...
Harness	
  diverse	
  grape	
  varieKes	
  	
  
Wolkovich,	
  Walker,	
  Burges	
  &	
  Nicholas,	
  in	
  review	
  
70	
...
January 2015, ScientificAmerican.com 61
Will We Still Enjoy
Pin t Noir?Winegrowers are trying to preserve the flavor of you...
Looking	
  in	
  the	
  mirror	
  first…	
  
Sonoinspired.com	
  
High-­‐impact	
  individual	
  acKons	
  
Wynes	
  &	
  Nicholas,	
  in	
  review	
  
High-­‐impact	
  individual	
  acKons	
  
Wynes	
  &	
  Nicholas,	
  in	
  review	
  
Based	
  on:	
  	
  
•  42	
  source...
And beyond individual actions….
(Based	
  on	
  O’Brien	
  and	
  Sygna,	
  2013;	
  Sharma	
  2009)	
   58	
  
Thank	
  you!	
  	
  
	
  
kimnicholas.com	
  	
  
(all	
  publicaKons	
  &	
  ScienKfic	
  American	
  arKcle	
  available...
A taste of the future: Wine in a changing climate
A taste of the future: Wine in a changing climate
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A taste of the future: Wine in a changing climate

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Scientific presentation on wine and climate change by Prof. Kimberly Nicholas, given in Oslo on 23 November 2016. (Event description here: https://www.facebook.com/events/204576989951542/)

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A taste of the future: Wine in a changing climate

  1. 1. Image:  Mark  Vogel   A  taste  of  the  future:     Wine  in  a  changing  climate     Prof.  Kimberly  Nicholas   Lund  University  Centre  for  Sustainability  Science  (LUCSUS)   @KA_Nicholas   kimnicholas.com  
  2. 2. January 2015, ScientificAmerican.com 61 Will We Still Enjoy Pin t Noir?Winegrowers are trying to preserve the flavor of your favorite reds and whites as climate change alters the compounds in grapes By Kimberly A. Nicholas January 2015, ScientificAmerican.com 61 The over-vine cooling treatment was similar to a micro- sprinkler installation with spaghetti tube risers about a foot above the canopy, terminating in the misting heads. January 15, 2009 Investigating Low-Volume Approaches to Vineyard Cooling High heat can damage both fruit and foliage. A group in Napa is investigating alternatives to overhead impact sprinklers. by Mark Greenspan In last month's column I indicated that a survey of Sonoma/Mendocino growers revealed that use of overhead sprinklers to cool fruit during hot weather periods is a common practice in warmer growing regions of the North Coast. The downside of overhead sprinklers is that they are tremendous users of water and suck up water at the most demanding time of day. We don't know if the dry spring rainfall patterns experienced in 2007 and 2008 were a harbinger of things to come, but water conservation can be expected to be on the minds of our industry for now and for good. Why Cool Vines? The moderate climate enjoyed by the North Coast is frequently interrupted by periods of high heat. The heat waves can reach well into the 100s, sometimes reaching above 115°F. While foliage is sensitive to heat, it has the advantage of transpiration, which is a natural way in which leaves cool themselves by evaporating water from their interiors. On the other hand, fruit lack active stomatal pores and cannot cool themselves as effectively as leaves. Pigmented fruit will absorb additional energy from the sun as it reflects less sunlight energy than light-skinned grapes. Outer berries, exposed to direct sunlight, may reach 15°F above ambient temperature. High temperatures are January 2009 Search past issues Subscribe Shaping Phenolic Compounds Thinking About Making Sparkling Wine? Product Review Update: Vineyard Weather Stations Investigating Low-Volume Approaches to Vineyard Cooling Retail Sales Analysis: Overall Wine Sales Up 4.2 Percent through September Risks, Rewards of Direct Shipping Which HR Practices Improve Profitability? How the Economy is Affecting the On-Premise Wine Business People ISSUE WINEMAKING GRAPE GROWING SALES & MARKETING FINANCE & ADMIN Investigating Low-Volume Approaches to Vineyard Cooling http://www.winebusiness.com/wbm/?go=getArticle&da Wine  in  the  world   Wine  &  climate   Climate  change   Impacts   AdaptaKon   What  can  I  do?    
  3. 3. January 2015, ScientificAmerican.com 61 Will We Still Enjoy Pin t Noir?Winegrowers are trying to preserve the flavor of your favorite reds and whites as climate change alters the compounds in grapes By Kimberly A. Nicholas January 2015, ScientificAmerican.com 61 The over-vine cooling treatment was similar to a micro- sprinkler installation with spaghetti tube risers about a foot above the canopy, terminating in the misting heads. January 15, 2009 Investigating Low-Volume Approaches to Vineyard Cooling High heat can damage both fruit and foliage. A group in Napa is investigating alternatives to overhead impact sprinklers. by Mark Greenspan In last month's column I indicated that a survey of Sonoma/Mendocino growers revealed that use of overhead sprinklers to cool fruit during hot weather periods is a common practice in warmer growing regions of the North Coast. The downside of overhead sprinklers is that they are tremendous users of water and suck up water at the most demanding time of day. We don't know if the dry spring rainfall patterns experienced in 2007 and 2008 were a harbinger of things to come, but water conservation can be expected to be on the minds of our industry for now and for good. Why Cool Vines? The moderate climate enjoyed by the North Coast is frequently interrupted by periods of high heat. The heat waves can reach well into the 100s, sometimes reaching above 115°F. While foliage is sensitive to heat, it has the advantage of transpiration, which is a natural way in which leaves cool themselves by evaporating water from their interiors. On the other hand, fruit lack active stomatal pores and cannot cool themselves as effectively as leaves. Pigmented fruit will absorb additional energy from the sun as it reflects less sunlight energy than light-skinned grapes. Outer berries, exposed to direct sunlight, may reach 15°F above ambient temperature. High temperatures are January 2009 Search past issues Subscribe Shaping Phenolic Compounds Thinking About Making Sparkling Wine? Product Review Update: Vineyard Weather Stations Investigating Low-Volume Approaches to Vineyard Cooling Retail Sales Analysis: Overall Wine Sales Up 4.2 Percent through September Risks, Rewards of Direct Shipping Which HR Practices Improve Profitability? How the Economy is Affecting the On-Premise Wine Business People ISSUE WINEMAKING GRAPE GROWING SALES & MARKETING FINANCE & ADMIN Investigating Low-Volume Approaches to Vineyard Cooling http://www.winebusiness.com/wbm/?go=getArticle&da Wine  in  the  world   Wine  &  climate   Climate  change   Impacts   AdaptaKon   What  can  I  do?    
  4. 4. Wine  in  the  world   Viers,  Williams,  Nicholas  et  al.,  2013,  ConservaKon  LeRers    
  5. 5. Chile Portugal Argentina New Zealand
  6. 6. “Great  wine  is  grown,  not  made”   Photos  from  Nicholas,  2015,  ScienKfic  American    (and  last  night!)  
  7. 7. www.lake-­‐geneva-­‐region.ch   physical  use   experienKal  use   winetasKngguy.com   symbolic   gusKbus.cz   spiritual/     religious   visitnapavalley.com   bequest   doxfordjuniour.co.uk   www.merryedwards.com   existence   8   More  than  wine...     fronKerholidays.net   educaKonal   entertainment   www.peek.com   heritage   www.tuscany-­‐charming.it   gradstudies.ucdavis.edu   scienKfic  aestheKc   suterra.com   Slide  from  Klara  Winkler    
  8. 8. January 2015, ScientificAmerican.com 61 Will We Still Enjoy Pin t Noir?Winegrowers are trying to preserve the flavor of your favorite reds and whites as climate change alters the compounds in grapes By Kimberly A. Nicholas January 2015, ScientificAmerican.com 61 The over-vine cooling treatment was similar to a micro- sprinkler installation with spaghetti tube risers about a foot above the canopy, terminating in the misting heads. January 15, 2009 Investigating Low-Volume Approaches to Vineyard Cooling High heat can damage both fruit and foliage. A group in Napa is investigating alternatives to overhead impact sprinklers. by Mark Greenspan In last month's column I indicated that a survey of Sonoma/Mendocino growers revealed that use of overhead sprinklers to cool fruit during hot weather periods is a common practice in warmer growing regions of the North Coast. The downside of overhead sprinklers is that they are tremendous users of water and suck up water at the most demanding time of day. We don't know if the dry spring rainfall patterns experienced in 2007 and 2008 were a harbinger of things to come, but water conservation can be expected to be on the minds of our industry for now and for good. Why Cool Vines? The moderate climate enjoyed by the North Coast is frequently interrupted by periods of high heat. The heat waves can reach well into the 100s, sometimes reaching above 115°F. While foliage is sensitive to heat, it has the advantage of transpiration, which is a natural way in which leaves cool themselves by evaporating water from their interiors. On the other hand, fruit lack active stomatal pores and cannot cool themselves as effectively as leaves. Pigmented fruit will absorb additional energy from the sun as it reflects less sunlight energy than light-skinned grapes. Outer berries, exposed to direct sunlight, may reach 15°F above ambient temperature. High temperatures are January 2009 Search past issues Subscribe Shaping Phenolic Compounds Thinking About Making Sparkling Wine? Product Review Update: Vineyard Weather Stations Investigating Low-Volume Approaches to Vineyard Cooling Retail Sales Analysis: Overall Wine Sales Up 4.2 Percent through September Risks, Rewards of Direct Shipping Which HR Practices Improve Profitability? How the Economy is Affecting the On-Premise Wine Business People ISSUE WINEMAKING GRAPE GROWING SALES & MARKETING FINANCE & ADMIN Investigating Low-Volume Approaches to Vineyard Cooling http://www.winebusiness.com/wbm/?go=getArticle&da Wine  in  the  world   Wine  &  climate   Climate  change   Impacts   AdaptaKon   What  can  I  do?    
  9. 9. Winegrapes  &  climate  closely  linked   Chuine  et  al.,  2004,  Nature  
  10. 10. Climate  drivers  of  winegrape  yields  in  California   • High wine grape yields favored by: • warm April, wet June, wet Sept before harvest (R2=0.62) Lobell, Nicholas, and Field, 2007, Climatic Change Yieldanomaly(%) Surprising for irrigated crop in Mediterranean climate! °C cm cm
  11. 11. Winegrape  price  sensiKve  to  temperature   Central  Valley   North  Coast  Central   Coast   Mean  Max  August  Temp,  Avg  1980-­‐2006,  °C     Monterey   Santa  Cruz   Central  Coast   Mendocino   Sonoma   Napa   Solano   Lodi   Davis   Merced   Sacramento  Valley   R2=0.89   Nicholas  et  al.,  2011,  Ag  &  Forest  Met   12   Price  ($/ton)  
  12. 12. January 2015, ScientificAmerican.com 61 Will We Still Enjoy Pin t Noir?Winegrowers are trying to preserve the flavor of your favorite reds and whites as climate change alters the compounds in grapes By Kimberly A. Nicholas January 2015, ScientificAmerican.com 61 The over-vine cooling treatment was similar to a micro- sprinkler installation with spaghetti tube risers about a foot above the canopy, terminating in the misting heads. January 15, 2009 Investigating Low-Volume Approaches to Vineyard Cooling High heat can damage both fruit and foliage. A group in Napa is investigating alternatives to overhead impact sprinklers. by Mark Greenspan In last month's column I indicated that a survey of Sonoma/Mendocino growers revealed that use of overhead sprinklers to cool fruit during hot weather periods is a common practice in warmer growing regions of the North Coast. The downside of overhead sprinklers is that they are tremendous users of water and suck up water at the most demanding time of day. We don't know if the dry spring rainfall patterns experienced in 2007 and 2008 were a harbinger of things to come, but water conservation can be expected to be on the minds of our industry for now and for good. Why Cool Vines? The moderate climate enjoyed by the North Coast is frequently interrupted by periods of high heat. The heat waves can reach well into the 100s, sometimes reaching above 115°F. While foliage is sensitive to heat, it has the advantage of transpiration, which is a natural way in which leaves cool themselves by evaporating water from their interiors. On the other hand, fruit lack active stomatal pores and cannot cool themselves as effectively as leaves. Pigmented fruit will absorb additional energy from the sun as it reflects less sunlight energy than light-skinned grapes. Outer berries, exposed to direct sunlight, may reach 15°F above ambient temperature. High temperatures are January 2009 Search past issues Subscribe Shaping Phenolic Compounds Thinking About Making Sparkling Wine? Product Review Update: Vineyard Weather Stations Investigating Low-Volume Approaches to Vineyard Cooling Retail Sales Analysis: Overall Wine Sales Up 4.2 Percent through September Risks, Rewards of Direct Shipping Which HR Practices Improve Profitability? How the Economy is Affecting the On-Premise Wine Business People ISSUE WINEMAKING GRAPE GROWING SALES & MARKETING FINANCE & ADMIN Investigating Low-Volume Approaches to Vineyard Cooling http://www.winebusiness.com/wbm/?go=getArticle&da Wine  in  the  world   Wine  &  climate   Climate  change   Impacts   AdaptaKon   What  can  I  do?    
  13. 13. What Everyone Needs to Know About Climate Change… in 3 Seconds or Less! 14 National Geographic redrawn Arctic maps, 2015
  14. 14. Source: NASA What Everyone Needs to Know About Climate Change… in 3 Seconds or Less! 1. The climate is warming 2. It’s us 3. We’re sure 4. It’s bad 5. We can fix it (Thanks to Jon Krosnick, Stanford University) 15
  15. 15. Figure SPM.3 Multiple observed indicators of a changing global climate All Figures © IPCC 2013 It’s warming
  16. 16. What’s  warming  the  world?   17  hRp://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-­‐whats-­‐warming-­‐the-­‐world/   Source:  @eroston  and  @BlackiLi  using  NASA  data    
  17. 17. It’s  not  Earth’s  orbit   18  hRp://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-­‐whats-­‐warming-­‐the-­‐world/   Source:  @eroston  and  @BlackiLi  using  NASA  data    
  18. 18. It’s  not  sunspots   19  hRp://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-­‐whats-­‐warming-­‐the-­‐world/   Source:  @eroston  and  @BlackiLi  using  NASA  data    
  19. 19. It’s  not  volcanoes   20  hRp://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-­‐whats-­‐warming-­‐the-­‐world/   Source:  @eroston  and  @BlackiLi  using  NASA  data    
  20. 20. Natural  causes  aren’t  warming  the  world     21  hRp://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-­‐whats-­‐warming-­‐the-­‐world/   Source:  @eroston  and  @BlackiLi  using  NASA  data    
  21. 21. What  about  human  factors?   22  hRp://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-­‐whats-­‐warming-­‐the-­‐world/   Source:  @eroston  and  @BlackiLi  using  NASA  data    
  22. 22. It’s  us:  Current  warming  is  human-­‐caused   23  hRp://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-­‐whats-­‐warming-­‐the-­‐world/   Source:  @eroston  and  @BlackiLi  using  NASA  data    
  23. 23. James  Powell,  2012,  desmogblog.com  (independent  study,  not  peer-­‐reviewed)   We’re  sure  
  24. 24. Henson  2011,  US  NaKonal  Research  Council,  based  on  Solomon  et  al,  2011,  US  NAS   It’s  bad  
  25. 25. We  can  fix  it!    We  can  fix  it!    
  26. 26. January 2015, ScientificAmerican.com 61 Will We Still Enjoy Pin t Noir?Winegrowers are trying to preserve the flavor of your favorite reds and whites as climate change alters the compounds in grapes By Kimberly A. Nicholas January 2015, ScientificAmerican.com 61 The over-vine cooling treatment was similar to a micro- sprinkler installation with spaghetti tube risers about a foot above the canopy, terminating in the misting heads. January 15, 2009 Investigating Low-Volume Approaches to Vineyard Cooling High heat can damage both fruit and foliage. A group in Napa is investigating alternatives to overhead impact sprinklers. by Mark Greenspan In last month's column I indicated that a survey of Sonoma/Mendocino growers revealed that use of overhead sprinklers to cool fruit during hot weather periods is a common practice in warmer growing regions of the North Coast. The downside of overhead sprinklers is that they are tremendous users of water and suck up water at the most demanding time of day. We don't know if the dry spring rainfall patterns experienced in 2007 and 2008 were a harbinger of things to come, but water conservation can be expected to be on the minds of our industry for now and for good. Why Cool Vines? The moderate climate enjoyed by the North Coast is frequently interrupted by periods of high heat. The heat waves can reach well into the 100s, sometimes reaching above 115°F. While foliage is sensitive to heat, it has the advantage of transpiration, which is a natural way in which leaves cool themselves by evaporating water from their interiors. On the other hand, fruit lack active stomatal pores and cannot cool themselves as effectively as leaves. Pigmented fruit will absorb additional energy from the sun as it reflects less sunlight energy than light-skinned grapes. Outer berries, exposed to direct sunlight, may reach 15°F above ambient temperature. High temperatures are January 2009 Search past issues Subscribe Shaping Phenolic Compounds Thinking About Making Sparkling Wine? Product Review Update: Vineyard Weather Stations Investigating Low-Volume Approaches to Vineyard Cooling Retail Sales Analysis: Overall Wine Sales Up 4.2 Percent through September Risks, Rewards of Direct Shipping Which HR Practices Improve Profitability? How the Economy is Affecting the On-Premise Wine Business People ISSUE WINEMAKING GRAPE GROWING SALES & MARKETING FINANCE & ADMIN Investigating Low-Volume Approaches to Vineyard Cooling http://www.winebusiness.com/wbm/?go=getArticle&da Wine  in  the  world   Wine  &  climate   Climate  change   Impacts   AdaptaKon   What  can  I  do?    
  27. 27. Sugar  level  (degrees  Brix)   Long-­‐term  harvest  records   Date   Slide  from  Leanne  Webb  
  28. 28. Sugar  level  (degrees  Brix)   Pushing  back  recording  dates   Date   Slide  from  Leanne  Webb  
  29. 29. 30   What  about  quality?  
  30. 30. Climate  change  threatens  wine  quality   31   Nicholas,  2015,  Scien0fic  American    Graphic:  Jen  ChrisKansen,  ScienKfic  American  
  31. 31. Climate  change  threatens  wine  quality   32   Nicholas,  2015,  Scien0fic  American    Graphic:  Jen  ChrisKansen,  ScienKfic  American  
  32. 32. Unchecked  climate  change  would  rewrite   the  global  wine  map     Map  from  Nicholas,  2015,  ScienKfic  American.  Data  from  Hannah  et  al.,  2013,  PNAS  
  33. 33. Winners & losers under climate change
  34. 34. Rathfinney.com  
  35. 35. Rathfinney.com  
  36. 36. Rathfinney.com  
  37. 37. Rathfinney.com  
  38. 38. Rathfinney.com  
  39. 39. Pic  of  English  vs.  CA  vineyards  vs.   champagne    
  40. 40. January 2015, ScientificAmerican.com 61 Will We Still Enjoy Pin t Noir?Winegrowers are trying to preserve the flavor of your favorite reds and whites as climate change alters the compounds in grapes By Kimberly A. Nicholas January 2015, ScientificAmerican.com 61 The over-vine cooling treatment was similar to a micro- sprinkler installation with spaghetti tube risers about a foot above the canopy, terminating in the misting heads. January 15, 2009 Investigating Low-Volume Approaches to Vineyard Cooling High heat can damage both fruit and foliage. A group in Napa is investigating alternatives to overhead impact sprinklers. by Mark Greenspan In last month's column I indicated that a survey of Sonoma/Mendocino growers revealed that use of overhead sprinklers to cool fruit during hot weather periods is a common practice in warmer growing regions of the North Coast. The downside of overhead sprinklers is that they are tremendous users of water and suck up water at the most demanding time of day. We don't know if the dry spring rainfall patterns experienced in 2007 and 2008 were a harbinger of things to come, but water conservation can be expected to be on the minds of our industry for now and for good. Why Cool Vines? The moderate climate enjoyed by the North Coast is frequently interrupted by periods of high heat. The heat waves can reach well into the 100s, sometimes reaching above 115°F. While foliage is sensitive to heat, it has the advantage of transpiration, which is a natural way in which leaves cool themselves by evaporating water from their interiors. On the other hand, fruit lack active stomatal pores and cannot cool themselves as effectively as leaves. Pigmented fruit will absorb additional energy from the sun as it reflects less sunlight energy than light-skinned grapes. Outer berries, exposed to direct sunlight, may reach 15°F above ambient temperature. High temperatures are January 2009 Search past issues Subscribe Shaping Phenolic Compounds Thinking About Making Sparkling Wine? Product Review Update: Vineyard Weather Stations Investigating Low-Volume Approaches to Vineyard Cooling Retail Sales Analysis: Overall Wine Sales Up 4.2 Percent through September Risks, Rewards of Direct Shipping Which HR Practices Improve Profitability? How the Economy is Affecting the On-Premise Wine Business People ISSUE WINEMAKING GRAPE GROWING SALES & MARKETING FINANCE & ADMIN Investigating Low-Volume Approaches to Vineyard Cooling http://www.winebusiness.com/wbm/?go=getArticle&da Wine  in  the  world   Wine  &  climate   Climate  change   Impacts   AdaptaKon   What  can  I  do?    
  41. 41. The  Climate  Challenge:  Bending  the  Curve   UNEP  Gap  Report  2016   Global  annual  greenhouse  gas  emissions  (Gt  CO2e)  
  42. 42. Graph:  IPCC  WG1,  2013  SPM;  aqer  Luers  &  Moser  2006   “Avoid  what  we  can’t  manage,  and   manage  what  we  can’t  avoid”   Avoidable  impacts:   MiKgaKon           Unavoidable     impacts:   AdaptaKon  
  43. 43. Climate  miKgaKon  +  adaptaKon  “wedges”   Diffenbaugh  et  al.,  2011,  ERL  
  44. 44. Source:  Sonoma  Index-­‐Tribune   What  can  farmers  do  to  adapt?  
  45. 45. AdaptaKon  acKons  get  harder  with   more  warming   Nicholas  and  Durham,  2012,  Global  Environmental  Change  46   Short-­‐term   Long-­‐term  
  46. 46. AdapKng  to  Vineyard  Stresses   •  Pests  &  diseases   – Insects     – Fungal     •  Climate  variability   – Heat     – Frost   Photo:  UC  IPM  
  47. 47. AdaptaKon  to  Physical  Stresses   Diagrams:  Beuga  et  al.,  2004   Frost  and  heat   Canopy  arrangement   Frost     protecKon   Frost  protecKon  and   heat  protecKon   Bird  neung  
  48. 48. New Trellising Could Shade and Cool Fruit, and Increase Quality Previously  reported  light  intercepKon  (Dokoozlian  &  Kliewer,  1995)      0                    20                      40                      60                    80                  100       Numberofobservations 010203040 Nicholas  et  al.,  2011,  Ag  &  Forest  Met   % cluster intercepted light (PAR) N=488 vines 1% increase in light, >2% decrease in grape color and tannins (p<0.005)
  49. 49. Adaptation in Action: Vineyard Cooling Trial °C Courtesy of Walsh Vineyards Management The over-vine cooling treatment was similar to a micro- sprinkler installation with spaghetti tube risers about a foot above the canopy, terminating in the misting heads. The under-vine cooling treatment provided a mist pattern that remained low to the ground and did not wet the foliage or the fruit. In last month's column I indicated that a survey of Sonoma/Mendocino growers revealed that use of overhead sprinklers to cool fruit during hot weather periods is a common practice in warmer growing regions of the North Coast. The downside of overhead sprinklers is that they are tremendous users of water and suck up water at the most demanding time of day. We don't know if the dry spring rainfall patterns experienced in 2007 and 2008 were a harbinger of things to come, but water conservation can be expected to be on the minds of our industry for now and for good. Why Cool Vines? The moderate climate enjoyed by the North Coast is frequently interrupted by periods of high heat. The heat waves can reach well into the 100s, sometimes reaching above 115°F. While foliage is sensitive to heat, it has the advantage of transpiration, which is a natural way in which leaves cool themselves by evaporating water from their interiors. On the other hand, fruit lack active stomatal pores and cannot cool themselves as effectively as leaves. Pigmented fruit will absorb additional energy from the sun as it reflects less sunlight energy than light-skinned grapes. Outer berries, exposed to direct sunlight, may reach 15°F above ambient temperature. High temperatures are detrimental to fruit and wine quality. Apart from the obvious consequences, such as sunburn, shrivel and loss of pigment, the heat may also lead to changes in flavor, aroma and mouthfeel compounds and precursors. Regardless of subtleties, it is always heartbreaking to tend a vineyard all year only to have a mid- or late-season heat wave shrivel fruit, creating overly cooked, pruney and raisiny flavors in the wines--not to mention the yield losses. Napa Vineyard Cooling Project A group in Napa Valley is exploring the use of Shaping Phenolic Compounds Thinking About Making Sparkling W Product Review Update: Vineyard W Investigating Low-Volume Approac Cooling Retail Sales Analysis: Overall Wine Percent through September Risks, Rewards of Direct Shipping Which HR Practices Improve Profita How the Economy is Affecting the Business People Month in Review News What's Cool: Make Your Own Packa Jake Lorenzo 2009 Unified Wine & Grape Sympo Guide GRAPE GROWING SALES & MARKETING FINANCE & ADMIN DEPARTMENTS ControlCooledCooled UnderOver Image: VineView Inc.
  50. 50. Biological  AdaptaKon  Strategies   IPM/beneficial  insects   Prune  for  frost  protecKon   Spray  pesKcides  &  fungicides   Compost/organic/biodynamic  
  51. 51. Harness  diverse  grape  varieKes     Wolkovich,  Walker,  Burges  &  Nicholas,  in  review   70  varieKes  in   common   garden  in   Davis,  CA  
  52. 52. January 2015, ScientificAmerican.com 61 Will We Still Enjoy Pin t Noir?Winegrowers are trying to preserve the flavor of your favorite reds and whites as climate change alters the compounds in grapes By Kimberly A. Nicholas January 2015, ScientificAmerican.com 61 The over-vine cooling treatment was similar to a micro- sprinkler installation with spaghetti tube risers about a foot above the canopy, terminating in the misting heads. January 15, 2009 Investigating Low-Volume Approaches to Vineyard Cooling High heat can damage both fruit and foliage. A group in Napa is investigating alternatives to overhead impact sprinklers. by Mark Greenspan In last month's column I indicated that a survey of Sonoma/Mendocino growers revealed that use of overhead sprinklers to cool fruit during hot weather periods is a common practice in warmer growing regions of the North Coast. The downside of overhead sprinklers is that they are tremendous users of water and suck up water at the most demanding time of day. We don't know if the dry spring rainfall patterns experienced in 2007 and 2008 were a harbinger of things to come, but water conservation can be expected to be on the minds of our industry for now and for good. Why Cool Vines? The moderate climate enjoyed by the North Coast is frequently interrupted by periods of high heat. The heat waves can reach well into the 100s, sometimes reaching above 115°F. While foliage is sensitive to heat, it has the advantage of transpiration, which is a natural way in which leaves cool themselves by evaporating water from their interiors. On the other hand, fruit lack active stomatal pores and cannot cool themselves as effectively as leaves. Pigmented fruit will absorb additional energy from the sun as it reflects less sunlight energy than light-skinned grapes. Outer berries, exposed to direct sunlight, may reach 15°F above ambient temperature. High temperatures are January 2009 Search past issues Subscribe Shaping Phenolic Compounds Thinking About Making Sparkling Wine? Product Review Update: Vineyard Weather Stations Investigating Low-Volume Approaches to Vineyard Cooling Retail Sales Analysis: Overall Wine Sales Up 4.2 Percent through September Risks, Rewards of Direct Shipping Which HR Practices Improve Profitability? How the Economy is Affecting the On-Premise Wine Business People ISSUE WINEMAKING GRAPE GROWING SALES & MARKETING FINANCE & ADMIN Investigating Low-Volume Approaches to Vineyard Cooling http://www.winebusiness.com/wbm/?go=getArticle&da Wine  in  the  world   Wine  &  climate   Climate  change   Impacts   AdaptaKon   What  can  I  do?    
  53. 53. Looking  in  the  mirror  first…   Sonoinspired.com  
  54. 54. High-­‐impact  individual  acKons   Wynes  &  Nicholas,  in  review  
  55. 55. High-­‐impact  individual  acKons   Wynes  &  Nicholas,  in  review   Based  on:     •  42  sources  (25  peer-­‐reviewed)   •  16  countries   •  161  scenarios  
  56. 56. And beyond individual actions…. (Based  on  O’Brien  and  Sygna,  2013;  Sharma  2009)   58  
  57. 57. Thank  you!       kimnicholas.com     (all  publicaKons  &  ScienKfic  American  arKcle  available-­‐     see  blog  post  “tasKng  climate  change”)       @KA_Nicholas  

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