This lecture discusses global food security and the role of irrigation. It notes that the world's food security depends on irrigation as crop yields are much higher under irrigation. Asia is a key region for global food security as it accounts for over 90% of rice production and consumption. Improving water productivity through irrigation technologies, pricing, and management reforms can help ensure global food security in the face of population growth and climate change challenges.

1. Lecture Series
Monday, 09.01.2012
The world’s food security depends on The Water-Energy-Food
irrigation – whether we like it or not Security Nexus
Winter Semester 2011 / 2012
Muhammad Mehmood-Ul-Hassan, ZEF
Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung , Center for
Development Research (ZEF)

2. The World’s Food Security Depends
on Irrigation – Whether we like it or not
Mehmood
Ul
Hassan
Center
for
Development
Research
University
of
Bonn
mhassan@uni-­‐bonn.de
January 09,
2012

3. Outline
• What is food security?
• The challenge
• The state of global food security
• Role of irrigation in enhancing food security
• Water productivity
• Approaches and challenges to increasing water
productivity
• Concluding Remarks
• Key Resources

4. Food Security defined
• FAO’s ideal food security is a “situation when all
people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic
access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets
their dietary needs and food preferences...
(Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007)
• In its narrowest definition, food security means that
enough (to meet energy and nutrient requirements) food
is available, whether at the global, national, community,
or household level (Pinstrup-Andersen, 2009).
• Halving the global hunger by 2015 is an MDG
• FAO uses proportion of undernourished to that of
national population as an indicator to assess national
food security levels.

5. Population Growth: Food
Security Challenge
Source: UN (2004)

6. Expected regional growth
Year World Asia Africa Europe Latin America Northern America Oceania
2010 6,909 4,167 (60.3%) 1,033 (15.0%) 733 (10.6%) 589 (8.5%) 352 (5.1%) 36 (0.5%)
2015 7,302 4,391 (60.1%) 1,153 (15.8%) 734 (10.1%) 618 (8.5%) 368 (5.0%) 38 (0.5%)
2020 7,675 4,596 (59.9%) 1,276 (16.6%) 733 (9.6%) 646 (8.4%) 383 (5.0%) 40 (0.5%)
2025 8,012 4,773 (59.6%) 1,400 (17.5%) 729 (9.1%) 670 (8.4%) 398 (5.0%) 43 (0.5%)
2030 8,309 4,917 (59.2%) 1,524 (18.3%) 723 (8.7%) 690 (8.3%) 410 (4.9%) 45 (0.5%)
2035 8,571 5,032 (58.7%) 1,647 (19.2%) 716 (8.4%) 706 (8.2%) 421 (4.9%) 46 (0.5%)
2040 8,801 5,125 (58.2%) 1,770 (20.1%) 708 (8.0%) 718 (8.2%) 431 (4.9%) 48 (0.5%)
2045 8,996 5,193 (57.7%) 1,887 (21.0%) 700 (7.8%) 726 (8.1%) 440 (4.9%) 50 (0.6%)
Source: UN (2004)

7. State of Food Security (I)
Source: FAO (2009)

8. State of Food Security (II)
• FAO estimated that the proportion of undernourished in developing world has
decreased from 20 to 17% (1990-2003)
• The number of undernourished practically has not decreased below 800 million
during the past 40 years (over 1 billion remained hungry in 2009!!),
• In the regions of Near East and North Africa (NENA) and Sub Sahara Africa
(SSA) the number of undernourished people increased throughout.
• Half of food insecure population lives in South Asia, NENA and Sub-Saharan
Africa
• Food insecurity has again witnessed an increasing trend in recent years
• FAO estimates that by 2050, 27 countries will face undernourishment levels of
above 5% in SA, SSA, and NENA

9. Food insecurity Hotspots
Source: Rockström, et al. 2007.

10. Irrigated agriculture & food security
• The yields of most crops are 100-400% higher under irrigation
compared to that of under rain-fed conditions (FAO, 2004)
• The yields of rain-fed agriculture can be pushed up by providing
(small amounts of) supplemental irrigation
• The scale of global irrigated land is estimated at a total of 3,245,566
km², what is nearly the size of India.[CIA, 2010)
• About 68% of the area equipped for irrigation is located in Asia, 17%
in America, 9% in Europe, 5% in Africa and 1% in Oceania.
• The largest contiguous areas of high irrigation density are found in
North India and Pakistan along the rivers Ganges and Indus, in the
Hai He, Huang He and Yangtze basins in China, along the Nile river
in Egypt and Sudan, in the Mississippi-Missouri river basin and in
parts of California.
• Smaller irrigation areas are spread across almost all populated parts
of the world.

11. Irrigated Agric in Developing Countries
• Currently, some 20% (around 205 million hectares) of agricultural land
in developing countries is irrigated and it provides about 40% of crop
production in these countries.
• Asia accounts for more than 90% of world rice production and
consumption (Van Tran, 2003)
• Crop yield gaps in developing countries are mostly wide (Van Tran,
2003)
• The developing countries will become increasingly dependent on
cereal imports. By 2030 they could be producing only 86 percent of
their own needs, with net imports amounting to some 265 million
tonnes annually - almost three times present levels (FAO, 2004).
• Developing countries are expected to expand their irrigated area by 40
million hectares by 2030 to ensure their food sovereignty

12. Asian agriculture is key to global food
security

13. Food Sovereignty and WP
Recent trends in global food
price volatility have forced
countries to consider options for
being food sovereign
Climate change led events have
caused floods and droughts
Improving water productivity in
agriculture is the key way
forward for ensuring a food
secure world for all (IWMI,
2010)
Source: FAOSTAT (http://faostat.fao.org/site/339/default.aspx)

14. Water Productivity
Water Productivity, a measure that captures efficiency of water
use in agriculture, is broader in scope than most agronomic
applications and must be considered on a watershed, basin,
irrigation district, or catchment scale (Howell, 2001).

15. Determinants of WP
• The causes for the relatively low water
productivity in agriculture are numerous
and complex, including agronomic,
biological, engineering, management,
social, and economic facets (Hsiao, et. al,
2007).

16. Three ways to enhance WP
• Improving irrigation technologies
(varieties, field level, system automation,
rehabilitation)
• Right Pricing
• Management/ Governance Reforms

17. WP enhancing technologies
• ach irrigation technology suitable for specific group of crops, soil and weather condition
E
• onsidering financial state of farmers in most developing countries, smart incentives for less capital
C
intensive water saving techniques to start with
Source:
Mar%us,
Bekchanov
and
Damis
(forthcoming)

18. Challenges
• Adoption constraints: Farmers with the most owned land, the
highest number of acres and the most reliable water supplies are
most likely to invest in more efficient irrigation systems during
severe droughts (Schuck, et. al., 2005).
• As water becomes scarcer (and more unreliable), farmers tend
to rely more on groundwater and conjunctive use- Groundwater
is much difficult to price and manage
• Technical interventions have not always led to the expected,
desirable outcomes, and the recommendations in many reports and
papers are at best dubious, at worst simply wrong (Perry, 2007)
• Appropriateness of technologies- need for transdisciplinarity
approaches

19. Water Pricing
• A useful means for achieving efficient allocation of irrigation water is
to put the right price tag on it….. various pricing methods differ in the
amount and type of information, and the administrative cost, needed
in their implementation. The …water pricing methods are most
pronounced through their effect on the cropping pattern—more
so than through their effect on water demand for a given crop
(Tsur and Dinar, 1997).
• Pricing irrigation water can only happen when it directly relates to
the level of consumption of water: A condition that can not be met in
most irrigation systems in the developing world (Perry 2001)
• Water markets work best in situations of water scarcity where
agriculture and water rights are well developed (Jury and Vaux
2005)
• The price that farmers pay for water in many world areas is much
less than the value of that water, but the application of right pricing
might be impossible in poor countries (Hussain et al. 2007).

20. Irrigation Reforms
The Pentagon Model
Source: Ul Hassan, 2011

21. Intentions, Instruments and Impacts of irrigation
Reforms in Asia
Country/ Region Leading Key Intentions Instruments Implementation Impact
Institutions
Central Asia State actors, financing Diverse, not made Legal enactments and None to weak; left to Negligible
banks, rural elite clear, state dictated regulations only; donor projects or state
involved contracts with self- administration
declared WUAs
India State, and financing Clear Strong legal Mixed, half hearted Medium
banks, farmers framework, (irrigation agency lacked
involved later rehabilitation enthusiasm)
Conflict with old subsidies, one sided
institutions contracts
other instruments
ignored
State, financing Unclear, only by Strong legal Mixed, half hearted Weak to medium
Pakistan Banks, opposition implication framework, but
from irrigation contradictory, one
agency and rural elite, sided agreements,
landless ignored arrangements for
social mobilization
State, Financing Clear Legal Framework, Mixed, half hearted Medium
Sri Lanka Banks, Farmers, social mobilization,
NGOs rehabilitation
subsidies
State, Financing Clear Social Mobilization, Enthusiastic agency High
Turkey Banks, Irrigation Joint Management, served as the reform
Agency, Local Legal Framework champion, competition
Leadership (later), mutual amongst regions
accountability triggered quick turnover
of schemes

22. Concluding Remarks (I)
World can produce more food and can ensure that it is used more
efficiently and equitably (Godfray, et. al., 2010)
South Asia, NENA and SSA needs special attention to enhance food
security
• here is a critical link between Food security and irrigated
T
agriculture, and more so in case of developing countries
• nhancing water productivity in irrigated agriculture in Asia, and
E
supplemental irrigation in SSA and NENA can help reduce food
insecurity

23. Improving Irrigated Agriculture
• To reduce conveyance losses, huge infrastructure projects have been implemented, but these
tend to ignore the “soft” side of the equation
• It is not that water users are not interested in enhancing WP, they do it when it makes sense
under their conditions. We need to understand their rationality-> need for appropriate
innovations that fit their reality
• Water pricing remains and will remain a political issue and therefore can not be used as an
effective tool to enhance WP under current circumstances in many countries-> Role for
experimental economics to design, test and learn from smart incentives
• Water reforms have generally been designed half heartedly in response to donor pressures,
without much deep thinking behind and thus targeted lower tiers of irrigation systems more->
Focus on reforming water bureaucracies as well
• “…it is not the nominal implementation of the reform that matters, but rather it is the creation of
new management institutions that offer water managers (and users) monetary incentives that lead
to water savings” (Wang, et. al., 2005)-> Rethink reforms design principles….do not just
transfer the management and cost burden to farmers, give them voice and authority in
decision making
• Address concerns related to transparency, accountability, and inclusiveness of reforms

24. Thank you very much!
• Charles, H., et al. 2010. Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People. Science Vol. 327 no. 5967 pp. 812-818. DOI: 10.1126/science.
1185383
• FAO (2009). Global Food Security: Challenges and long-term perspective. Agric. Dev Economics Division, FA. http://www.fao.org/economic/es-
policybriefs/multimedia0/presentation-global-food-security/zh/
• Fereres, E. and Soriano, MA (2007). Deficit irrigation for reducing agricultural water use. J. Exp. Bot. 58 (2): 147-159. doi: 10.1093/jxb/erl165
• Hsiao, TC, Steduto, P and Fereres, E. (2007) A systematic and quantitative approach to improve water use efficiency in agriculture. Irrig Sci
25:209–231. DOI 10.1007/s00271-007-0063-2
• Howell, T.A. (2001). Enhancing water use efficiency in irrigated agriculture. Agronomy journal. Mar/Apr 2001. v. 93 (2), p. 281-289
• Hussain I, Turral H, Molden DJ, Mobin-ud-Din A (2007). Measuring and enhancing the value of agricultural water in irrigated river basin. Irrig Sci
25:209–231.
• Jury WA, Vaux H Jr (2005) The role of science in solving the world’s emerging water problems. Proc Natl Acad Sci 102:15715–15720
• Mehmood Ul Hassan, M. 2011. Analyzing governance reform in irrigation: Lessons from South, Central and West Asia. Irrig. and Drain. 60: 151–
162 (2011)
• Perry, C. J. 2001. Charging for Irrigation Water: the Issues and Options, with a Case Study from Iran. Research report 52. International Irrigation
Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka.
• Perry, C. 2007. Efficient irrigation; inefficient communication; flawed recommendations. Irrig. and Drain 56 (4): 367- 378.
• Pinstrup-Andersen, P. 2009. Food security: definition and measurement. Food Sec. (2009) 1:5–7
• Schmidhuber, J., Francesco N. Tubiello. (2007). Global food security under climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2007 December 11; 104(50):
19703–19708
• Rockström, et al. 2007. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2007 April 10; 104(15): 6253–6260.
• Siebert, S.; J. Hoogeveen, P. Döll, J-M. Faurès, S. Feick, and K. Frenken (2006-11-10). "The Digital Global Map of Irrigation Areas – Development
and Validation of Map Version 4" (PDF). Tropentag 2006 – Conference on International Agricultural Research for Development. Bonn, Germany.
• Schuck, EC., Frasier, WM, Webb, RS., Ellingson, LJ, Umberger, WJ. 2005. Adoption of More Technically Efficient Irrigation Systems as a Drought
Response. International Journal of Water Resources Development. 21(4): 651-662
• Tsur, Y and Dinar A. The Relative Efficiency and Implementation Costs of Alternative Methods for Pricing Irrigation Water. World Bank Economic
Review. 11(2): 243-262
• United Nations (2004). Secretariat of Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs
• Wang, J., Xu, Z, Hunag, J. 2005. Incentives in water management reform: assessing the effect on water use, production, and poverty in the Yellow
River Basin. Environment and Development Economics 10: 769–799 C _ 2005 Cambridge University Press doi:10.1017/S1355770X05002524
• Hong Yang,Peter Reichert, Karim C. Abbaspour, and Alexander J. B. Zehnder. A Water Resources Threshold and Its Implications for Food Security.
Environ. Sci. Technol., 2003, 37 (14), pp 3048–3054 DOI: 10.1021/es0263689