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The inseparable water and food crises: how can we overcome them? Alain Vidal CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food Spiritual Transformation for Sustainable Development AIT – Bangkok – 3 November 2009
Content ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Food crisis: is it new? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Food crisis: the hunger countdown? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Water, food and GDP ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What is causing the world food crisis? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Rapid variations in world food prices What’s next?
Food consumption changes in emerging countries ,[object Object]
More meat in China, more milk in India Meat  China India Milk  China India USA USA
Food & feed demand will double  The main driver ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Long-term effect of climate change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Eg rainfall change from 1990 to 2070-2100
Slow growing supply vs. low stocks  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Biofuels: a significant short-term effect ,[object Object],[object Object]
What have we learnt from the 2008 crisis? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Do we also have a water crisis?  ,[object Object]
The driving forces? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Water Crisis in context Vegetarian diet uses  2000  L/day  - OR -  Grainfed meat diet 5000 L/day  2-5L   Daily 20-500L   Daily 500-3000L Per Kg
Water consumption is increasing
Dietary water demand grows with GDP Lundqvist 2008 GDP US$/cap/yr
The water productivity challenge  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Change our thinking about water and agriculture Far from Source: Patton, 2007 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Certainty Agreement Close to Far from Close to Simple Plan, control Zone of Complexity Technically Complicated Experiment, coordinate expertise Socially Complicated Build relationships, create common ground
Increase the productivity of water to potential ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Potential = 1-2 kg/m 3
Water productivity and resource management Before After Growth rate of Bac Lieu province (2004 – 2006) 15.7%/yr Rice-shrimp profits: ca. USD 2150/ha/year
[object Object]
Increasing water productivity requires external factors ,[object Object],[object Object]
The resilience challenge ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Green water Blue water MUS MUS resilience zone Single uses unstable zone
Resilience of dry rainfed systems ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Resilience from wetlands: Nam Songkhram ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],“ paa boong paa thaam”
Resilience from Multiple Use water Systems ,[object Object],[object Object]
From domestic water to multiple-use ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How to address the resilience challenge? ,[object Object],[object Object],Green water Blue water Single uses unstable zone Multiple use/sources resilience Rainfed humid Rainfed dry Disruptive Change
Spiritual Transformation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Reintroducing a « triangulation » Man alone with  his pulsions Universal law  and inner peace  « Otherness »
Changes at individual level ,[object Object]
Political changes at local level ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Political changes at local level ,[object Object],[object Object]
Political changes at global level ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank you Alain Vidal, CPWF Director [email_address] www.waterandfood.org www.slideshare.com/CPWF
References and links ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Photo Credits ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Food & Water Crisis S9 Ait 3 Nov 09 V2

  • 1. The inseparable water and food crises: how can we overcome them? Alain Vidal CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food Spiritual Transformation for Sustainable Development AIT – Bangkok – 3 November 2009
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  • 7. Rapid variations in world food prices What’s next?
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  • 9. More meat in China, more milk in India Meat China India Milk China India USA USA
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  • 17. The Water Crisis in context Vegetarian diet uses 2000 L/day - OR - Grainfed meat diet 5000 L/day 2-5L Daily 20-500L Daily 500-3000L Per Kg
  • 18. Water consumption is increasing
  • 19. Dietary water demand grows with GDP Lundqvist 2008 GDP US$/cap/yr
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  • 23. Water productivity and resource management Before After Growth rate of Bac Lieu province (2004 – 2006) 15.7%/yr Rice-shrimp profits: ca. USD 2150/ha/year
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  • 33. Reintroducing a « triangulation » Man alone with his pulsions Universal law and inner peace « Otherness »
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  • 38. Thank you Alain Vidal, CPWF Director [email_address] www.waterandfood.org www.slideshare.com/CPWF
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Editor's Notes

  1. Thanks
  2. IWRM Project has been exploring how to mitigate drought and improve livelihoods in water scarce areas of the Limpopo Basin The better one manages green water, the more one gets blue water available RWH, either in-field through water conservation techniques, or at micro-catchment level to capture run-off
  3. Wetlands system called Paa Boong Paa Tham = « seasonally flooded forest » Project on Improving Mekong Water Allocation
  4. All water systems around the world tend to be MUS : Some are MUS by-design When single-used design, systems often transform themselves into MUS, whether the original purpose was domestic or agriculture Multiple sources of water in Thailand farm: Roofwater, rainwater/soil moisture, run-on, groundwater shallow well or borehole, irrigation canals, ‘domestic’ piped systems, (bottled water,) fish tanks
  5. Research has shown that, when developing multiple water sources and water availability, from 20 lcpd (minimum recommended) up to 100 lpcd, income derived from water could raise from US$ 40 to 300 per household and per year. ‘ multiple-use’ water ladder (with service levels of basic domestic; basic MUS; intermediate MUS; and high-level MUS)
  6. Increasing water productivity and improving farmers’ livelihoods should be done along the existing green-to-blue water continuum, and not only considering one side or another of this continuum, as still too often done. Important remarks for future work and presentations: The presentation was on purpose a little provocative in its approach, and probably went too far on the concepts for most of the auditors (incl. from the Chair, a CPWF board member though). The message need therefore to be repeated, eg in the COP-15 Agriculture Day, exploring a similar approach where green-blue water continuum could be somehow replaced by climate change exposure. There was a strong interest from SEI to further work on the basis of the resilience graphs used, since CPWF Phase 1 results could provide empirical evidence of those concept being still under development at SEI and Stockholm Resilience Center.
  7. Kant’s citation is about the need to move from individualism to sharing and doing together Turing’s citation is about the risk of using science only to make decisions (ie assuming that the differential equation can be solved without knowing the boundary condition)
  8. Triangulation Homme – Dieu (Instance, sagesse supérieure) – Terre/eau Absence de triangulation Homme face à la Terre et doit la gérer seul face à ses pulsions (en bien et en mal), il enlève la notion d’altérité (dim humaine introduite par psys athées), ce qui témoigne de l’universel et libère l’homme. La dim de Dieu réintroduit l’altérité, de qqch de plus grand que moi, dont l’homme a nécessairement conscience face à la nature. L’homme, au lieu de référer aux interdits qu’ils se poserait, se réfère à une loi universelle extérieure à lui – déculpabilisation et paix intérieure. Cette paix permet la préoccupation de l’autre et de la Terre.
  9. Religions can propose alternative to the Western fantasy of the self-built man (O. Rey, Philosopher) Quote recent Times interview of Lord Nicholas Stern
  10. Paa Boong Paa Thaam is a very resilient wetland where things change all the time following the Mekong flood and recession alternance – resilience means adaptability, not invariability Tamboloma, as being with the Chimborazo sacred volcano behind the axis of communication the worlds below and above, reminds the role of paramos as regulator of water flows between the glaciers (shrinking with climate change) and the watershed