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Household Income, Demand, and 
Saving: Deriving Macro Data with 
Micro Data Concepts 
Barry Cynamon and Steve Fazzari 
Post Keynesian Conference 
Kansas City, September, 2014
Acknowledgment 
• Co-authored work with Barry Cynamon 
• Thanks to the Institute for New Economic 
Thinking for generous financial support
Motivation – Part 1 
• Demand effects of household sector 
• Consumption drives much of the economy 
• PCE vs. what households actually spend 
• Prime example: residential construction 
vs. imputed rent on owner-occupied 
housing
Motivation – Part 2 
• Disaggregation of household flows using 
household micro data 
• Example: recent work with Barry on rising inequality 
and consumption 
• Need disaggregated data 
• Inconsistency between representative 
surveys and macro measures 
• Not just sampling error; important conceptual 
differences
Objectives: Measure Actual Cash Flows 
• Eliminate imputed value of services in 
consumption 
• Spending versus some concept of “utility” 
• Eliminate spending not controlled by 
households 
• Example: Medicare 
• Cash flow concept of disposable income 
• Flow of funds under household control 
• Concept likely to correspond better with 
flows households report on surveys 
• Household financial flows the way households actually see 
these flows
Key Identity 
• Accounting identity maintained before and after 
adjustments: 
Disposable Household Personal Financial 
Income = Consumption + Investment + Transfers + Saving 
• Identity holds in NIPA 
• Household investment not distinguished from financial saving 
• Adjustments to consumption or income require 
balancing change elsewhere 
• HH Demand = Cons. + HH Investment
Housing Example (2011 $billions) 
Disp. 
Income 
Cons. HH Invest. Pers. 
Trans. 
Fin. 
Saving 
Implicit Rent -1236 -1236 
Intermediate Inputs + 197 + 197 
Mortgage Interest + 469 + 469 
Depreciation + 209 + 209 
New Construction 
+ 283 - 283 
Single-Family Homes 
• Eliminate “rent home to yourself” business 
• Effect on household demand: 
-1236 + 197 + 283 = -756 
• Effect on disp. income = -361 (but transfer 
expenditure up by 469)
Other Important Categories 
• About 40 (!) separate adjustments 
• Remove “NPISH” sector 
• Free financial services 
• Medical care 
• Employer and government, not households 
• “Other” demand 
• Retirement accounting 
• Exclude payments by employers and government 
• Include benefits from plans
SO WHAT?
Per Capita Personal Income 
NIPA (gray) – SCF (blue) –Our Adjusted Measure (red) 
$45,000 
$40,000 
$35,000 
$30,000 
$25,000 
$20,000 
$15,000 
$10,000 
1988 
1991 
1994 
1997 
2000 
2003 
2006 
2009
Per Capita Personal Outlays 
NIPA (gray) –PSID Cooper (blue) –Our Adjusted Measure (red) 
$35,000 
$33,000 
$31,000 
$29,000 
$27,000 
$25,000 
$23,000 
$21,000 
$19,000 
$17,000 
$15,000 
1984-1988 1989-1993 1994-1998 1999-2000 2001-2002 2003-2004 2005-2006 2007-2008 2009-2010
Demand-Disposable Income Ratios 
NIPA PCE / DPI (black) –Adj. Cons / Adj. DPI (gray) –Adj. HH Demand / Adj. DPI (red) 
100% 
98% 
96% 
94% 
92% 
90% 
88% 
86% 
84% 
82% 
80% 
1948 
1950 
1952 
1954 
1956 
1958 
1960 
1962 
1964 
1966 
1968 
1970 
1972 
1974 
1976 
1978 
1980 
1982 
1984 
1986 
1988 
1990 
1992 
1994 
1996 
1998 
2000 
2002 
2004 
2006 
2008 
2010 
HH Demand to Adj DI NIPA PCE to NIPA DPI Adj Consumption to Adj DI
Outlays (with interest) to Disp. Income 
120% 
115% 
110% 
105% 
100% 
95% 
90% 
85% 
80% 
1948 
1951 
1954 
1957 
1960 
1963 
1966 
1969 
1972 
1975 
1978 
1981 
1984 
1987 
1990 
1993 
1996 
1999 
2002 
2005 
2008 
2011 
HH Demand to Adj DI NIPA PCE to NIPA DPI
Medical Spending Paid for by Others 
Ratios to Adjusted GDP 
75% 
70% 
65% 
60% 
55% 
50% 
1948 
1951 
1954 
1957 
1960 
1963 
1966 
1969 
1972 
1975 
1978 
1981 
1984 
1987 
1990 
1993 
1996 
1999 
2002 
2005 
2008 
2011 
NIPA PCE / GDP 
(HH demand + non-HH healthcare) / adjusted GDP 
HH demand / adjusted GDP
Different Saving Rates 
15% 
10% 
5% 
0% 
-5% 
-10% 
-15% 
1948 
1951 
1954 
1957 
1960 
1963 
1966 
1969 
1972 
1975 
1978 
1981 
1984 
1987 
1990 
1993 
1996 
1999 
2002 
2005 
2008 
2011 
NIPA saving rate adjusted gross saving rate adjusted financial saving rate

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Household Income, Demand, and Saving: Deriving Macro Data with Micro Data Concepts

  • 1. Household Income, Demand, and Saving: Deriving Macro Data with Micro Data Concepts Barry Cynamon and Steve Fazzari Post Keynesian Conference Kansas City, September, 2014
  • 2. Acknowledgment • Co-authored work with Barry Cynamon • Thanks to the Institute for New Economic Thinking for generous financial support
  • 3. Motivation – Part 1 • Demand effects of household sector • Consumption drives much of the economy • PCE vs. what households actually spend • Prime example: residential construction vs. imputed rent on owner-occupied housing
  • 4. Motivation – Part 2 • Disaggregation of household flows using household micro data • Example: recent work with Barry on rising inequality and consumption • Need disaggregated data • Inconsistency between representative surveys and macro measures • Not just sampling error; important conceptual differences
  • 5. Objectives: Measure Actual Cash Flows • Eliminate imputed value of services in consumption • Spending versus some concept of “utility” • Eliminate spending not controlled by households • Example: Medicare • Cash flow concept of disposable income • Flow of funds under household control • Concept likely to correspond better with flows households report on surveys • Household financial flows the way households actually see these flows
  • 6. Key Identity • Accounting identity maintained before and after adjustments: Disposable Household Personal Financial Income = Consumption + Investment + Transfers + Saving • Identity holds in NIPA • Household investment not distinguished from financial saving • Adjustments to consumption or income require balancing change elsewhere • HH Demand = Cons. + HH Investment
  • 7. Housing Example (2011 $billions) Disp. Income Cons. HH Invest. Pers. Trans. Fin. Saving Implicit Rent -1236 -1236 Intermediate Inputs + 197 + 197 Mortgage Interest + 469 + 469 Depreciation + 209 + 209 New Construction + 283 - 283 Single-Family Homes • Eliminate “rent home to yourself” business • Effect on household demand: -1236 + 197 + 283 = -756 • Effect on disp. income = -361 (but transfer expenditure up by 469)
  • 8. Other Important Categories • About 40 (!) separate adjustments • Remove “NPISH” sector • Free financial services • Medical care • Employer and government, not households • “Other” demand • Retirement accounting • Exclude payments by employers and government • Include benefits from plans
  • 10. Per Capita Personal Income NIPA (gray) – SCF (blue) –Our Adjusted Measure (red) $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
  • 11. Per Capita Personal Outlays NIPA (gray) –PSID Cooper (blue) –Our Adjusted Measure (red) $35,000 $33,000 $31,000 $29,000 $27,000 $25,000 $23,000 $21,000 $19,000 $17,000 $15,000 1984-1988 1989-1993 1994-1998 1999-2000 2001-2002 2003-2004 2005-2006 2007-2008 2009-2010
  • 12. Demand-Disposable Income Ratios NIPA PCE / DPI (black) –Adj. Cons / Adj. DPI (gray) –Adj. HH Demand / Adj. DPI (red) 100% 98% 96% 94% 92% 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% 80% 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 HH Demand to Adj DI NIPA PCE to NIPA DPI Adj Consumption to Adj DI
  • 13. Outlays (with interest) to Disp. Income 120% 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 HH Demand to Adj DI NIPA PCE to NIPA DPI
  • 14. Medical Spending Paid for by Others Ratios to Adjusted GDP 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 NIPA PCE / GDP (HH demand + non-HH healthcare) / adjusted GDP HH demand / adjusted GDP
  • 15. Different Saving Rates 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 NIPA saving rate adjusted gross saving rate adjusted financial saving rate