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Measuring the Cost of Living
1.
Measuring the Cost
of Living Chapter 23 Copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved. Requests for permission to make copies of any part of the work should be mailed to: Permissions Department, Harcourt College Publishers,
2.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Measuring the Cost of Living Inflation refers to a situation in which the economy’s overall price level is rising. The inflation rate is the percentage change in the price level from the previous period.
3.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. The Consumer Price Index The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical consumer. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the CPI each month. It is used to monitor changes in the cost of living over time.
4.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. The Consumer Price Index When the CPI rises, the typical family has to spend more dollars to maintain the same standard of living.
5.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated Fix the Basket: Determine what prices are most important to the typical consumer. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) identifies a market basket of goods and services the typical consumer buys. The BLS conducts monthly consumer surveys to set the weights for the prices of those goods and services.
6.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated Find the Prices: Find the prices of each of the goods and services in the basket for each point in time.
7.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated Compute the Basket’s Cost: Use the data on prices to calculate the cost of the basket of goods and services at different times.
8.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated Choose a Base Year and Compute the Index: Designate one year as the base year, making it the benchmark against which other years are compared. Compute the index by dividing the price of the basket in one year by the price in the base year and multiplying by 100.
9.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated Compute the inflation rate: The inflation rate is the percentage change in the price index from the preceding period.
10.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. The Inflation Rate 100 1YearinCPI 1YearinCPI-2YearinCPI Year2inRateInflation ×= The inflation rate is calculated as follows:
11.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example Step 1:Survey Consumers to Determine a Fixed Basket of Goods 4 hot dogs, 2 hamburgers
12.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example Year Price of Hot dogs Price of Hamburgers 2001 $1 $2 2002 $2 $3 2003 $3 $4 Step 2: Find the Price of Each Good in Each Year
13.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example 2001 ($1 per hot dog x 4 hot dogs) + ($2 per hamburger x 2 hamburgers) = $8 2002 ($2 per hot dog x 4 hot dogs) + ($3 per hamburger x 2 hamburgers) = $14 2003 ($3 per hot dog x 4 hot dogs) + ($4 per hamburger x 2 hamburgers) = $20 Step 3: Compute the Cost of the Basket of Goods in Each Year
14.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example Step 4: Choose One Year as the Base Year (2001) and Compute the Consumer Price Index in Each Year 2001 ($8/$8) x 100 = 100 2002 ($14/$8) x 100 = 175 2003 ($20/$8) x 100 = 250
15.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example 2002 (175-100)/100 x 100 = 75% 2003 (250-175)175 x 100 = 43% Step 5: Use the Consumer Price Index to Compute the Inflation Rate from Previous Year
16.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: Another Example Base Year is 1998. Basket of goods in 1998 costs $1,200. The same basket in 2000 costs $1,236. CPI = ($1,236/$1,200) X 100 = 103. Prices increased 3 percent between 1998 and 2000.
17.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. GDP Deflator 100 GDPReal GDPNominal =deflatorGDP × The GDP deflator is calculated as follows:
18.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Other Price Indexes The BLS calculates other prices indexes: The index for different regions within the country. The producer price index, which measures the cost of a basket of goods and services bought by firms rather than consumers.
19.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Housing Food/Beverages Transportation Medical Care Apparel Recreation Other Education and communication What’s in the CPI’s Basket? 40%40% 16%16% 17%17% 6%6% 5%5% 6%6% 5%5% 5%5%
20.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Problems in Measuring The Cost of Living The CPI is an accurate measure of the selected goods that make up the typical bundle, but it is not a perfect measure of the cost of living.
21.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Problems in Measuring The Cost of Living Substitution bias Introduction of new goods Unmeasured quality changes
22.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Substitution Bias The basket does not change to reflect consumer reaction to changes in relative prices. Consumers substitute toward goods that have become relatively less expensive. The index overstates the increase in cost of living by not considering consumer substitution.
23.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Introduction of New Goods The basket does not reflect the change in purchasing power brought on by the introduction of new products. New products result in greater variety, which in turn makes each dollar more valuable. Consumers need fewer dollars to maintain any given standard of living.
24.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Unmeasured Quality Changes If the quality of a good rises from one year to the next, the value of a dollar rises, even if the price of the good stays the same. If the quality of a good falls from one year to the next, the value of a dollar falls, even if the price of the good stays the same.
25.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Unmeasured Quality Changes The BLS tries to adjust the price for constant quality, but such differences are hard to measure.
26.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living The substitution bias, introduction of new goods, and unmeasured quality changes cause the CPI to overstate the true cost of living. The issue is important because many government programs use the CPI to adjust for changes in the overall level of prices. The CPI overstates inflation by about 1 percentage point per year.
27.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index Economists and policymakers monitor both the GDP deflator and the consumer price index to gauge how quickly prices are rising. There are two important differences between the indexes that can cause them to diverge.
28.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index The GDP deflator reflects the prices of all goods and services produced domestically, whereas... …the consumer price index reflects the prices of all goods and services bought by consumers.
29.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index The consumer price index compares the price of a fixed basket of goods and services to the price of the basket in the base year (only occasionally does the BLS change the basket)... …whereas the GDP deflator compares the price of currently produced goods and services to the price of the same goods and services in the base year.
30.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. 1965 Percent per Year 15 10 5 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 CPI Two Measures of Inflation GDP deflator
31.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Dollar Figures from Different Times Price indexes are used to correct for the effects of inflation when comparing dollar figures from different times.
32.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Dollar Figures from Different Times Do the following to convert (inflate) Babe Ruth’s wages in 1931 to dollars in 1995: 1931inlevelPrice 1999inlevelPrice Salary=Salary 19311999 ×
33.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Dollar Figures from Different Times Do the following to convert (inflate) Babe Ruth’s wages in 1931 to dollars in 1995: $873,684= 15.2 166 $80,000= 1931inlevelPrice 1999inlevelPrice Salary=Salary 19311999 × ×
34.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. The Most Popular Movies of All Time, Inflation Adjusted Film Year of Release Total domesticgross in millions of 1999 dollars 1. Gone with the Wind 1939 $920 2. Star Wars 1977 798 3. The Sound of Music 1965 638 4. Titanic 1997 601 5. E.T.–The ExtraTerrestrial 1982 601 6. The Ten Commandments 1956 587 7. Jaws 1975 574 8. Doctor Zhivago 1965 543 9. The Jungle Book 1967 485 10. Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs 1937 476
35.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Indexation When some dollar amount is automatically corrected for inflation by law or contract the amount is said to be indexed for inflation.
36.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Real and Nominal Interest Rates Interest represents a payment in the future for a transfer of money in the past.
37.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Real and Nominal Interest Rates The nominal interest rate is the interest rate not corrected for inflation. It is the interest rate that a bank pays. The real interest rate is the nominal interest rate that is corrected for inflation. Real interest rate = (Nominal interest rate – Inflation rate)
38.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Real and Nominal Interest Rates You borrowed $1,000 for one year. Nominal interest rate was 15%. During the year inflation was 10%. Real interest rate = Nominal interest rate – Inflation = 15% - 10% = 5%
39.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. 1965 Interest Rates (percent per year) 15 10 5 0 -5 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998 Nominal interest rate Real interest rate Real and Nominal Interest Rates
40.
Harcourt, Inc. items
and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Summary The consumer price index shows the cost of a basket of goods and services relative to the cost of the same basket in the base year. The index is used to measure the overall level of prices in the economy. The percentage change in the CPI measures the inflation rate.
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and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Summary The consumer price index is an imperfect measure of the cost of living for the following three reasons: substitution bias, the introduction of new goods, and unmeasured changes in quality. Because of measurement problems, the CPI overstates annual inflation by about 1 percentage point.
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and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Summary The GDP deflator differs from the CPI because it includes goods and services produced rather than goods and services consumed. In addition, the CPI uses a fixed basket of goods, while the GDP deflator automatically changes the group of goods and services over time as the composition of GDP changes.
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and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Summary Dollar figures from different points in time do not represent a valid comparison of purchasing power. Various laws and private contracts use price indexes to correct for the effects of inflation. The real interest rate equals the nominal interest rate minus the rate of inflation.
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and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Graphical Review
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and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. What’s in the CPI’s Basket? Housing Food/Beverages Transportation Medical Care Apparel Recreation Other Education and communication 40%40% 16%16% 17%17% 6%6% 5%5% 6%6% 5%5% 5%5%
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and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Two Measures of Inflation 1965 Percent per Year 15 10 5 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 CPI GDP deflator
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and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. 1965 Interest Rates (percent per year) 15 10 5 0 -5 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998 Nominal interest rate Real interest rate Real and Nominal Interest Rates