The objective of this paper is to test the efficiency in the foreign exchange market by using four exchange rates ($/€, $/£, C$/$, and ¥/$). Different theoretical models are applied, like the random walk hypothesis, the unbiased forward rate hypothesis, the composite efficiency hypothesis, the semi-strong market efficiency, and the exchange rate expectations based on anticipated and unanticipated events (“News”). If exchange rate efficiency does not hold, a risk premium must exist and can be measured. Also, the determination of this exchange risk premium is taking place by using a GARCH (p, q) model. The empirical results for these four major exchange rates (five currencies) show that relative efficiency exists, but there are significant risk premia for some exchange rates used, here.
The objective of this paper is to test the efficiency in the foreign exchange market by using four exchange rates ($/€, $/£, C$/$, and ¥/$). Different theoretical models are applied, like the random walk hypothesis, the unbiased forward rate hypothesis, the composite efficiency hypothesis, the semi-strong market efficiency, and the exchange rate expectations based on anticipated and unanticipated events (“News”). If exchange rate efficiency does not hold, a risk premium must exist and can be measured. Also, the determination of this exchange risk premium is taking place by using a GARCH (p, q) model. The empirical results for these four major exchange rates (five currencies) show that relative efficiency exists, but there are significant risk premia for some exchange rates used, here.
Emotions Affect Markets in Predictable Ways: Behavioral Finance and Sentiment...Cristian Bissattini
Financial markets are not purely rational. Emotions play a large part in stock pricing. H2O Sentiment Analysis captures these emotions, the “animal spirits” coined by Keynes, through social media post messages.
We employ a novel way to capture and quantify sentiment based on authors' credibility, namely tracking the accuracy of past recommendations. Our results provide evidence that there is strong and useful information on investor sentiment and likely stock market movements.
Our research (done in collaboration with the Università della Svizzera italiana) has demonstrated that we can use this information in order to make predictions about stock price changes and to implement trading strategies based on sentiment analysis that perform, on average, better than traditional investment strategies like Buy and Hold or Moving Averages.
This research explores the trajectory of urbanization under capitalism and the evolutionary development of the financial system as a joint historical process. While design schools continue to propagate the famous Bauhaus adage "form follows function'', the particular historical reality of the American metropolis is that "form follows finance''. Focusing on the spatial consequences of the U.S. financial system since the 1830s, I argue that a general theory of urban rise and decline must establish explicit linkages between money, credit and banking and urban spatial structure. In particular, my research develops the case that money and finance are non-neutral with regard to space, principally because the institutional arrangements of finance matter for how the built environment evolves. In a globalizing economy, architecture and urban design thus have an increasing role in facilitating the circulation and accumulation of capital.
The recent financial crisis was a powerful reminder that the inherent instability of the monetary-financial system is likely entail serious consequences for the real economy.In responding to the crisis, both national and international policy makers have identified several gaps in the perimeter of financial regulation as the main culprit for failing to prevent the financial meltdown and its reverberations throughout the global economy. In many ways, the financial crisis has highlighted the importance of Hyman Minsky's work on financial instability and, perhaps in a more subtle way, the larger writings of Post-Keynesians on the non-neutrality of money. Common to all of this work is the special attention that it pays to the role of the financial sector as a source of fluctuations in the real sector, including the spatial structure of regional economies.
Paying particular attention to the analytic trinity of ideas, institutions and events, this research explores how the concept of "financial resilience" ought to be situated within the broader context of "money and the city" and the rapidly expanding research on urban resilience.
A discussion of risk lessons learned from the financial crisis. I argue that the public debate on risk management failures is mis-focused, and I propose an alternative paradigm for identifying the challenges to effective risk management and for directing future efforts to increase the effectiveness of risk management.
These Lecture series are relating the use R language software, its interface and functions required to evaluate financial risk models. Furthermore, R software applications relating financial market data, measuring risk, modern portfolio theory, risk modeling relating returns generalized hyperbolic and lambda distributions, Value at Risk (VaR) modelling, extreme value methods and models, the class of ARCH models, GARCH risk models and portfolio optimization approaches.
By leaving the dynamics of information out of the account, neoclassical economic theory reduces finance to a mere veil between lenders and borrowers, without significant macroeconomic consequences. On the other hand, experience indicates that the gravest macroeconomic fluctuations are associated with a financial dynamic, as has been stressed by heterodox economists from quite diverse schools of thought. In this talk I will outline a theory of an endogenous business cycle resulting from an instability caused by incompleteness of the financial markets and information asymmetries between lenders and borrowers. This provides a microeconomic explanation of Keynes's otherwise mysterious "excessive saving" while challenging the wisdom of traditional Keynesian policies and renewing the debate on what might be a free-market solution to the problem of financial instability.
These Lecture series are relating the use R language software, its interface and functions required to evaluate financial risk models. Furthermore, R software applications relating financial market data, measuring risk, modern portfolio theory, risk modeling relating returns generalized hyperbolic and lambda distributions, Value at Risk (VaR) modelling, extreme value methods and models, the class of ARCH models, GARCH risk models and portfolio optimization approaches.
This slide set is a work in progress and is embedded in my Principles of Finance course, which is also a work in progress, that I teach to computer scientists and engineers
http://awesomefinance.weebly.com/
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
BYD SWOT Analysis and In-Depth Insights 2024.pptxmikemetalprod
Indepth analysis of the BYD 2024
BYD (Build Your Dreams) is a Chinese automaker and battery manufacturer that has snowballed over the past two decades to become a significant player in electric vehicles and global clean energy technology.
This SWOT analysis examines BYD's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats as it competes in the fast-changing automotive and energy storage industries.
Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD started as a battery company before expanding into automobiles in the early 2000s.
Initially manufacturing gasoline-powered vehicles, BYD focused on plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, leveraging its expertise in battery technology.
Today, BYD is the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, delivering over 1.2 million electric cars globally. The company also produces electric buses, trucks, forklifts, and rail transit.
On the energy side, BYD is a major supplier of rechargeable batteries for cell phones, laptops, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems.
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
Exploring Abhay Bhutada’s Views After Poonawalla Fincorp’s Collaboration With...beulahfernandes8
The financial landscape in India has witnessed a significant development with the recent collaboration between Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank.
The launch of the co-branded credit card, the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card, marks a major milestone for both entities.
This strategic move aims to redefine and elevate the banking experience for customers.
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
1. ASSET PRICING UNDER UNCERTAINTY:
A KEYNESIAN MACROECONOMIC
MODEL
DR. GUILHERME R. S. SOUZA E SILVA (UFPR – BRAZIL)
DR. MARCELO LUIZ CURADO (UFPR – BRAZIL)
13TH INTERNATIONAL POST KEYNESIAN CONFERENCE
2. ASSET PRICING
CONVENTIONAL THEORY
1) FUNDAMENTAL VALUE
2) RISK ANALYSIS
3) RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS
4) EFFICIENT MARKETS
5) PORTFOLIO THEORY
KEYNESIAN THEORY
1) SPECULATION, MKT. PSYCHOLOGY
2) UNCERTAINTY
3) HERD BEHAVIOR
4) LIQUIDITY X EFFICIENCY
5) MACROECONOMIC RELATIONS
3. 1) FUNDAMENTAL VALUE / SPECULATION, MARKET PSYCHOLOGY
• FUNDAMENTAL VALUE: Intrinsic value is defined to be the “present value” of all expected
future net cash flows to the company; it is calculated via discounted cash flow valuation.
• KEYNES (1936): “The outstanding fact is the extreme precariousness of the basis of
knowledge on which our estimates of prospective yield have to be made”.
• KEYNES (1936): “Thus the professional investor is forced to concern himself with the
anticipation of impending changes, in the news or in the atmosphere, of the kind by which
experience shows that the mass psychology of the market is most influenced”.
4. 2) RISK ANALYSIS / UNCERTAINTY
• KNIGHT (1921): “It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or "risk" proper, as we
shall use the term, is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an
uncertainty at all. We shall accordingly restrict the term "uncertainty" to cases of the non-
quantitive type”.
3) RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS / HERD BEHAVIOR
• KEYNES (1936): “We are merely reminding ourselves that human decisions affecting the
future, whether personal or political or economic, cannot depend on strict mathematical
expectation, since the basis for making such calculations does not exist; [...]”
5. 4) EFFICIENT MARKETS / LIQUIDITY X EFFICIENCY
• FAMA (1970): “In general terms, the theory of efficient markets is concerned with whether
prices at any point in time ‘fully reflect’ available information.[…]
In short, the evidence in support of efficient markets model is extensive, and (somewhat
uniquely in economics) contradictory evidence is sparse”.
• DAVIDSON (2002): “In the real world, efficient markets are not liquid and liquid markets
are not efficient”.
5) PORTFOLIO THEORY / MACROECONOMIC RELATIONS
9. THE MACROECONOMIC MODEL
Conditions for stability are:
a) LM is steeper than IS (necessary condition)
b) IS curve is downward sloping (b and c sufficient conditions)
1 − 𝐶1 − 𝐼1 −
𝐶3+𝐼3
𝑝
𝐹 𝑁𝑁
𝐹 𝑁
2
𝑉
𝑝
+ 𝑉𝑌 > 0
c) LM curve is upward sloping (b and c sufficient conditions)
𝑀 + 𝑉 𝑚 𝑟 + 𝑀𝑏 𝑟 +
𝑀
𝑀 + 𝐵 + 𝑉
𝑉𝑟 < 0
10. CONCLUDING REMARKS
• Equities prices are highly dependent on economic growth, but this dependence is linked to
agents’ speculative mood;
• If uncertainty, rather than risk, is considered essential to asset pricing, speculation plays an
important role on financial markets;
• Depending on agents’ optimism, the development of a speculative bubble is a natural
consequence of agents’ pursuit for short term profits;
• In the proposed model, the influence of output levels on equities prices presented significant
influence on the slope of IS and LM curves;
• In the proposed model, If consumption and investment are considerably affected by equities
price, a speculative bubble will occur if agents are very optimist.