Facilitating Changes in Complex Humid Systems: the Role of Foresight by Marie de Lattre-Gasquet
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This document summarizes a presentation on how foresight can be useful for researchers working on complex agricultural systems. It provides examples of foresight processes and their outcomes. Foresight involves anticipating possible futures through scenarios in order to facilitate desirable changes. Examples discussed include foresight exercises on cocoa and rubber production that identified new research priorities. Climate change scenarios developed by CCAFS guided policymaker decisions. Agrimonde scenarios showed pathways to more sustainable agriculture. An ongoing foresight looks at cropping and livestock systems. Foresight helps anticipate challenges, empower stakeholders, and build consensus on shared visions to guide agricultural research and policy.
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Facilitating Changes in Complex Humid Systems: the Role of Foresight by Marie de Lattre-Gasquet
- 1. Facilitating changes in complex humid systems: the role of foresight Marie de Lattre-Gasquet CGIAR Consortium Office and Cirad Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015
- 2. Outline of the presentation 1. Why foresight can be useful to researchers working on systems. 2. Examples of foresight processes and their usefulness: 1. The futures of cocoa and rubber 2. Climate change scenarios 3. Agrimonde 4. On-going foresight exercise on futures of cropping and livestock systems Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015
- 3. Why foresight can be useful to researchers Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015
- 4. Foresight can help you to prepare to changes and to facilitate desired changes Anticipation Appropriation Action AN ATTITUDE A PROCESS Systemic approach Alerting on uncertainties. Taking care of mankind. Past to look far away. Collective work and intelligence to imagine together possible futures Acting to create the most desirable future Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015
- 5. Looking back to imagine possible futures Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015 What changed in the past 20 to 40 years? What is currently changing? What could change in the next 20 to 40 years? Possible futures Desirable futures Normative desired future Breakthroughs Seeds of change Uncertainties What is the situation today? LT tendencies Bruntland Report 2000 2015 2050 Increasing consciouness that resources are limited Belief that resources are unlimited. Systemic approach
- 6. FREEDOM Many possible futures Monitor the realities Look under the radar POWER No choice or no more the choice? Will WILL “There is no fair wind for one who knows not whither he is bound” (Seneca) Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015 The future: something to be created
- 7. Levels of granularities of foresights vary Geograhical scale Global Ag systeme Continent Sub continent Country subb-region Fonction Subject Megatrends Thematic Feed, transport,, Health, energy, S&T, Demography, climate scale Land use, empower Rubber, cocoa, forest, i rrigation… Land use Sénégal Forest Landes Gascogne The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Eastern Africa The future of food and farming Agrimonde GIEC UNEP emerging environmental issues Now for the long term Forêts Bassin du Congo Perspectives agricoles Aquatic agricultural systems ? Global livestock pdtion systems Filière équine française The Protein puzzle (NL) Time + 5 + 100
- 8. Foresight methods vary and evolve Economy Environnement Society Qualitative approach: vision, scenarios with narratives, etc. Quantitative approach Models : BAU, what if Modèles, par ex IMPACT, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE, GTEM, etc.
- 9. Getting involved in a foresight process 1. Defining the question (or the site), choosing the time horizon and identifying key stakeholders 2. Constructing the system and identifying key variables 3. Gathering data and drafting hypotheses 4. Exploring possible futures, building scenarios 5. Outlining strategies 6. Continuing to monitor changes What has to change? Who is ordering/paying for the foresight? With whom will it be done? What changes to implement? With whom can it be changed? Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015
- 10. Examples of foresight exercises and their usefulness for researchers, for farmers, for policy-makers… Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015
- 11. Foresight exercices on cocoa and rubber in the late 1990s • A knowledge base and key variables • Scenarios : – Continuation of current trends – Sustainable development of the commodity chain – Production crisis • Explicit and collective view on future of commodities • New research priorities, partnerships and networks • From a closed system to a political arena Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015
- 12. CCAFS scenarios Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015 Focused on guiding change in decision-making: • Scenarios are tools to scope regional key issues • Involvement of policy- makers • Combination of socio- economic and climate
- 13. Agrimonde Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015 Agrimonde has shown that agroecology works if global food demand decreases, but also that you cannot discuss the transformation of food production separately from a discussion on the transformation of food demand (towards sufficiency).
- 14. Livestock Cropping systems Biotechnical and socio- économic impasses Agronomic dynamics in scenarios Sustainable Intensification Agro-ecoology Intensification of input use and specialization Autonomy Inputs efficiency improvement Crop – livestock associations Rotations Reducing losses Use and transformation of waste (methane) Closer to consumers Resistant varieties Natural fertilizers and pesticides …… Production diversification Production decline by biological, climatic or technical failure Land losses (erosion, expropriation, expulsion division) Capital losses Lack of labor forces Cropping system pathways Sociotechnical transitions to sustainable agriculture Collapse 14 Agrimonde-Terra: on-going work. Source: Agrimonde-Terra Conventional Agricultural Intensification
- 15. Modes of production and locations of production can change Local CS Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Rice based cropping system: Vietnam Rice (twice a year) or Rice (summer) - Maize (winter) Rice twice a year on all areas (using AWD alternate wet and dry): watersaving which needs a great farmers coordination Rice twice a year (no water savings used due to lack of coordination) trend scenario Rice only in summer (plenty of water); Diversified dry crops during winter (maize, beans, vegetables) = watersaving Rice based cropping system: Mali Single cropping Rice/Rice 65 % Double cropping Rice/Rice 15 % DbCrp Rice/Market Gardening 10 % Sugar Cane 10 % Same system, water being shared between users. Water use in dry season for rice: double rice sequence No more double rice cropping sequence, water (in dry season)used for agro-industrial crops (Sugar Cane / Jatropha) Priority to investors New production systems involving Cattle breeding for African market with irrigated forage crops, industrial crops and double rice cropping for family farmers Water use in dry season for forages Rice based cropping system: Thailand Rainfed paddy rice in wet season, supplement irrigation in dry season Massive shift to higher yielding, lower quality rice (due to price support policy) Massive development of dry season irrigation Massive gradual withdrawal of aging farmers Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015
- 16. Futures of Landes de Gascogne Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015 Scenarios Opportunities and let it go Attractivity and qualitiy Large self- sufficient region Mosaic and diversity A better understanding of the different roles of the forest and the interests of different actors and their relationships A consensus on the future of the region
- 17. To identify and facilitate changes in complex systems Anticipation Appropriation Action • Concentrating on the long-term • Revealing uncertainties • Imagining several possible futures help to build theory of change • Anticipating development outcomes • Communication between varied stakeholders • Empowering smallholders • Building consensus on a shared vision • New research priorities and funding • New policies • Risk management Foresight is an attitude and a process
- 18. What are your needs? Level Context Other topics Direction of CRP Geographical flagship with different sites Cluster of activities Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015 Several ways of helping you: • Analyzing information on results of foresight exercices What’s new in thinking about the futures of AR4D? • Providing information when asked • Network – Forward Thinking Platform • Facilitating foresight exercises
- 19. Thank you for your attention
Editor's Notes
- Foresight is an attitude and a process that can help to prepare for this sustainable development for two reasons : (1) it takes time into consideration, the past, the present and the future. (2) it concentrates on the long-term, the next 20 to 40 years. Foresight is not about tomorrow or the next five years. It is about preparing for the next 15, 20 or even 40 years. Foresight methods will help us to imagine possible futures (among them sustainable intensification) and the trajectories to get to sustainable intensification and to avoid getting to unsustainable (or conventional) intensification The foresight approach can help to think about, to anticipate and to get to sustainable development becauses it takes time into consideration and concentrates on the long-term
- Anticipation: alerter, imaginer possible, souhaitable, réalisable SLOs : system level outcomes IDOs: intermediate development outcomes Systemic approach : the problems we face cannot be correctly understood if reduced to one dimension and sliced up like a salami, as we usually see things according to distinct academic disciplines. Instead, prospective provides an approach that captures realities in their totality with all the variables that act upon them, regardless of the type of variable. partnerships, collective intelligence and mediation between science and society
- There is a need to think back, to have understand past processes, past interactions, and the present situation before thinking about the futures. It is this understanding of the past that will lead to thinking about possible futures. Exploratory ‘what if’ scenarios to explore the problem Exploratory and normative scenarios to assess the problem and identify solutions Normative scenarios to map out how solutions can be applied Reflexive scenarios monitor risks, achievements and update methods and goals
- Pressing problems which require urgent action today are the direct result of a lack of anticipation in the past, and often draw resources away from more important tasks like long-term organizational development. In a world that is constantly changing and whose trends are prone to quick redirections or even reversals, an increased effort in foresight (specifically in the domains of technology, economics, and society) is crucial for an enterprise which aspires to have a flexible strategy—which is to say, the ability to both react nimbly to the forces of change and stay the course. In order to master change, organizations must correctly anticipate shifts the in technological, competitive, and regulatory environments, and then do so neither too early nor too late. There are four attitudes towards uncertainty and potential futures: the passive actor, who accepts change without challenging it. He or she is like an ostrich ; the reactive actor, who waits for the alarm to sound before extinguishing the fire – fireman ; the pre-active actor, who prepares for foreseeable changes because an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure; he is like an insurer The Proactive actor which acts to provoke a desired change.” (foresight)
- Problèmes de changements d’échelle Briefs « What’s new in thinking about the futures of AR4D? » Phosphorous and Nitrogen future of agronomy Open Access and Open Science Foresight exercises on science Complexity and systems approach in science
- On s’aperçoit que les modèles sont généralement peu transparents et qu’ils reposent sur des données rétrospectives souvent imprécises. Or, Garbage In Garbage Out comme disent les anglais. L’expérience de la prospective dans le domaine de l’énergie est que les interactions entre parties prenantes et modélisateurs qui commencent à se développer, le plus souvent au niveau local, apparaissent comme un ressort du succès de ces exercices de prospective. En effet, le dialogue et l’écoute entre parties prenantes, s’ils sont nécessaires, ne suffisent pas pour construire une convergence. Le poids des idées et postures préexistantes est trop fort. Changer de terrain de débat, et discuter des résultats chiffrés donnés par un modèle mathématique de projection dans le futur, nourri des options avancées par les uns et les autres, permet de faire bouger les lignes. Diversité dans les spécifications Impliquer les stakeholders prend du temps
- You launch a foresight exercice because : - you wonder what could happen in the future agriculture and energy ; forestry ecosystems in the Congo Bassin ; Shell scenarios ; CCAFS scenarios in a region…. - because you want to change something cocoa and rubber to change research priorities , because you want different stakeholders to interact together and exchange ideas in order to get to a common goal Landes de Gascogne, Picardie, Cirad 2015. because you do not understand well a question and believe foresight will help you to understand itbecause policymakers asks for it.
- Foresight is an attitude and a process that can help to prepare for this sustainable development for two reasons : (1) it takes time into consideration, the past, the present and the future. (2) it concentrates on the long-term, the next 20 to 40 years. Foresight is not about tomorrow or the next five years. It is about preparing for the next 15, 20 or even 40 years. Foresight methods will help us to imagine possible futures (among them sustainable intensification) and the trajectories to get to sustainable intensification and to avoid getting to unsustainable (or conventional) intensification The foresight approach can help to think about, to anticipate and to get to sustainable development becauses it takes time into consideration and concentrates on the long-term
- Starting in the mid-1990s, the cocoa and hevea commodity chains went through turbulent timesvdue to accelerating technical, social and economic changes. International agreements aimed at price regulation and policy harmonization were questioned. A new International Cocoa Agreement had to be negotiated in 1995. In 1999, INRO (International Natural Rubber Organization) which was responsible for implementing the international agreement on rubber was dismantled. Relationships between public research and industry were increasing. There were movements of vertical and horizontal integration in the industry. National research institutions faced great financial and institutional difficulties. Scientific discoveries changed research methodologies. In this new context, the two foresight exercises had similar objectives, i.e. to identify the research questions on which the researchers should focus, and to help researchers accept changes in their research priorities. Emphasis was put as much on the process as on the results of the foresight exercises. Because the context of the cocoa and the hevea commodity chains was particularly difficult, the heads of the research programmes and the head of the forward and strategic studies unit decided to launch first a cocoa and later a hevea foresight exercise. The management of the department fully supported the idea. The cocoa foresight started in January 1997 and the first presentation of three scenarios for the future was made in June 1998. The hevea foresight exercise was launched in May 1999, and the first presentation of three scenarios was made in November 2000. The two exercises lasted about eighteen months and were divided into three phases. The purpose of the first phase was to organize the exercise and to define its objectives, its time scale and geographical coverage. The time scale for the foresights was 2015, which was felt to be both sufficiently distant yet close enough. The geographical scale was worldwide. The principal actors of the two foresight exercises were CIRAD researchers. A ‘foresight group’ was created: it included all the researchers of the programmes concerned—those in France and those based overseas (about one third), as well as researchers in other programmes who were in a position to provide a different outlook. The groups met once a month with regular participation of 15 to 20 researchers.
- CCAFS scenarios as a development-driven project = focused on guiding change in decision-making (policies, investments, institutions, implementation) Scenarios = tools to challenge plans and improve robustness, flexibility and concreteness – can be used by those writing policies, investments to lend credibility to their plans Scenarios = tools to scope regional key issues according to stakeholders, develop regional priorities, develop networks Scenarios development = inclusive, scenarios use = more focused Demand driven increases likelihood of being effective, long-term feasibility Building internal strategic planning capacity and ability to use scenarios methodology is key in the long-term
- Hill S.B., MacRae R.J., 1995
- Foresight can improve inter-organisational learning and innovation where goals are relatively clear but the road ahead to achieve them is uncertain, or change is radical. Oilpalm : in 40 years: (1) drastic production increase; (2) movement from West Africa to Rest of Asia and now increase in Rest of America There are other crops whose locations have also moved dramatically in the last forty years. Sugarcrops production has moved from rest of America and UE27 to Brazil/Argentina. India remains the second production zone but production is increasing in rest of Africa and rest of Asia (ie not India and China). Fruits and vegetables production has moved from UE27 to China. There is increasing production in rest of Africa, rest of America. Will the WANA region be the next producing region? Soyacake production has moved from USA/Canada to Brazil/Argentina and China. Soyacake is increasing strongly in India. Will it grow in Africa in the future? Poultry meat production has moved from UE27 and Former SU to China/rest of Asia and Brazil/Argentina/rest of America. The USA/Canada has remained the first world producing zone. Poultry meat production is increasing in North Africa (more generally in Africa?)
- 1) Enabling greater ‘anticipatory learning’ 2) Assisting problem reframing, where there is deep, persistent conflict over sustainability problems 3) Improving inter-organisational learning and innovation where goals are relatively clear but the road ahead to achieve them is uncertain, or change is radical 4) Developing public or private sustainability strategies