Evidence at work: Country experience in the use of evidence in policy-making on agricultural biotechnologies presentation by Jikun Huang, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

1. Impacts of Agricultural Biotechnology and
Policies: China’s Experience
Jikun Huang
School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Peking University
and
Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, CAS

2. While China had been a net food exporter before the
middle 2000s, import has exceeded export thereafter
and food self-sufficient fell to 96% in 2014.
China food trade: export and import (bil. US$)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Import Export
Source: FAOSTAT

3. China’s food self-sufficiency
by commodity in 2014, %
0
20
40
60
80
100

4. Food demand and supply prospects
• Imports in 2015:
– Soybean: 81.7 mil. tons
– Maize, DDG and coarse grains: > 30 mil. tons
• Imports in future: Demand growth is expected
to exceed production growth; imports of many
agri. commodities (e.g., soybean, maize, edible oils,
cotton, sugar, and beef/mutton/milk) will rise due to:
– Increased production has been at the expensive
of sustainable development: falling groundwater;
falling soil fertility; high level of chemical
uses/non-point pollution…
– Rising cost of production due to rising wage:
less competitive; food insecurity

5. Roles of biotechnology
Biotech is one of major tools to
boosting China’s agricultural
productivity and competitive, reducing
chemical uses, and improve farmers’
welfare.

6. Investment in agri biotech research had been
doubled in every 4 years before mid-2000s
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Plant Agriculture
Huang et al., Science, 29 April 2005: 688-690
(million yuan
in 2003 price)
2003: 1.65 billion yuan = US$ 200 million
or US$ 950 million in PPP
National
GMSP:
26 bil. yuan
(US$ 3.8 bil.)
in 2009-2020

7. Numbers of agricultural researchers and agribiotech
researchers in the universities and institutes
engaged in the GMSP, 2005–2010
2005 2008 2009 2010
Agriculture 95,608 93,567 94,976 95,300
Agbiotech in the surveyed
institutions engaged in GMSP 9,915 11,719 12,539 13,072
Huang et al. Nature biotech, 2012

8. Safety certificates of GM crops for
production in China
• Cotton 1997 (Commercialized)
• Petunia 1997
• Tomato 1998
• Sweet pepper 1998
• Poplar trees 2005
• Papaya 2006 (Commercialized)
• Bt rice 2009- 2014 and 2014-2019
• Phytase maize 2009- 2014 and 2014-2019
Little marketed

9. Bt cotton areas in China, 1996-2013
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
面积
Bt%
About 7.1 million small farmers adopted Bt cotton in 2009
1000 ha （%）

10. Numbers of pesticide applications in Bt and non-Bt
cotton in Hebei and Shandong in 1999
7
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
Bt Non-Bt
In 1999: reduced by 13 applications
In 2000: reduced by 12 applications
In 2001: reduced by 14 applications
In 2004: reduced by 12 applications
In 2006: reduced by 10 applications
Huang et al., 2005, Science; Pray et al., 2002, PJ; Huang et al. 2010, Science China

11. 3.4
3.2
2.9
1.9
3.5
3.1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
(ton/ha)
1999 2000 2001
Bt Non-Bt
Cotton yield (ton/ha): Bt vs non-Bt cotton
Huang et al., AJARE, 2003

12. Impacts at farm level (per ha)
• Increase yield: 9.6% 930 yuan
• Reduce pesticide use: 34 kg 923 yuan
• Reduce labor input: 41days 574 yuan
• Increase seed cost: 570 yuan
•Increase net income: 1857 yuan
(US$ 225)
Increase in the household income (average sample household): 14%

13. Total Factor Productivity Growth Rates of Crops in 1995-2004
0
1
2
3
4
5
Early
Indica
Late
Indica
Japonica Wheat Maize Soybean Cotton
TFP
Percent per year

14. GM Rice in Farmer Fields
Yields (ton/ha): Bt vs non-Bt
6.4 6.2
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Bt rice Non-Bt rice
Huang et al., Science, 29 April 2005: 688-690
Pesticides (kg/ha): Btvs non-Bt
2.0
21.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
Bt rice Non-Bt rice

15. Percentage (%) of cases of pesticide-related incidences of morbidity from
our sample of cotton farmers interviewed in Hebei and Shandong in 1999
4.7
10.8
22.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
Only Bt cotton Both Bt and non-Bt cotton Only non-Bt cotton
Huang et al., 2002, Science

16. Percentage (%) of cases of pesticide-related incidences of morbidity
from our sample of rice farmers interviewed in pre-production village
sites in 2002 and 2003
0
5.3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Full adopters Non-adopters
Huang et al., 2005, Science

17. Economy-wide impacts based on GTAP:
Bt cotton and GM rice
Scenarios
A = Commercialise Bt cotton only
B = Commercialise Bt cotton + GM rice

18. B: Bt cotton + GM rice
Impacts on Welfare (EV, million US$) in 2010
1097
4155
5249
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
MillionUS$
Bt cotton GM rice Total
A: only Bt
cotton
B: Bt cttton +
GM rice
Gains rise to $US 5.2 billion … because rice area is larger
Huang et al., 2004, JDE

19. Impacts of GM maize on grain security
Maize self-sufficiency (%) in 2009 and 2025
80
90
100
2009 2025
Huang et al., 2011, CCAP report
With Bt maize
Without Bt maize

20. Status of GM plants in 2015
Production
trial
Safety certificate
for production
Tech ready for
farmers
Commercia-
lization
1 Cotton √ √ √ √
2 Rice √ √ √ No
3 Maize √ √ Phytase: √
Bt: about 2-3 years
No
4 Tomato √ √ √
5 Sweet pepper √ √ √
6 Papaya √ √ √ √
7 Poplar trees √ √ √ √
8 Petunia √ √ √ √
9 Wheat √ Not yet Within 5-6 years No
10 Soybean √ Not yet Within 3-4 years No
…

21. Status of GM plants in 2015
Production
trial
Safety certificate
for production
Tech ready for
farmers
Commercia-
lization
1 Cotton √ √ √ √
2 Rice √ √ √ No
3 Maize √ √ Phytase: √
Bt: about 2-3 years
No
4 Tomato √ √ √
5 Sweet pepper √ √ √
6 Papaya √ √ √ √
7 Poplar trees √ √ √ √
8 Petunia √ √ √ √
9 Wheat √ Not yet Within 5-6 years No
10 Soybean √ Not yet Within 3-4 years No
…
Slowing GM tech commercialization: largely
due to public concerns on safety of GM food

22. Media coverage in China
Accumulative monthly number of media reports with GM term
since 1999 (AMR) -- predominant negative views after 2009
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1999.Jan.
May.
Sep.
2000.Jan.
May.
Sep.
2001.Jan.
May.
Sep.
2002.Jan.
May.
Sep.
2003.Jan.
May.
Sep.
2004.Jan.
May.
Sep.
2005.Jan.
May.
Sep.
2006.Jan.
May.
Sep.
2007.Jan.
May.
Sep.
2008.Jan.
May.
Sep.
2009.Jan.
May.
Sep.
2010.Jan.
May.
Sep.
2011.Jan.
May.
Sep.
2012.Jan.
May.
Sep.
Sina Baidu
Sina: the top news website in China
Baidu: the web’s dominant search engine in China

23. Changing consumer’s attitudes towards GM foods:
average 4 GM foods in 2003, 2010 and 2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Accept Oppose Neutral Unknown
%
2003
2010
2012

24. Evolution of biotech policy in China
R&D Production
• Before 2009: ++++ ++++
• 2010-2014
-Fiber ++++ ++++
-Feed ++++ +/-
-Food ++++ ---
• 2015-2020
-Fiber ++++ ++++
-Feed ++++ ++++
-Food ++++ -
Bt maize could be commercialized within 3 years or so

25. Concluding remarks
• China has invested significantly in GM
technology; the progress has been impressive.
• China has also gained significantly from Bt
cotton and will gain much more from other
major GM crops such as maize and rice.
• GM technologies will play more important
roles in improving agri. productivity, ensuring
food security, and improving farmers’ welfare.
• Recent policy to facilitate commercialization of
GM maize is encouraging and will also have
important implications to global biotech
development.

26. Thanks