Better lives through livestock
Insights from the transformation of dairy in India
Jimmy Smith, Director General
International Livestock Research Institute
With contributions from: Habibar Rahman, Susan MacMillan, Ram Deka, Chris Jones
ICAR lecture series #44 Azadi Ka Amrit Mahotsav
17 February 2022

2
Overview
• Snapshot of India’s dairy
transformation (photofilm)
• Unpacking Indian dairy
trends and context
• Lessons to learn from Indian dairy
• The future of Indian dairy
• In India
• And beyond

A snapshot of India’s dairy transformation

Unpacking Indian
dairy trends and context

5
India agricultural commodity values 2018
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
Milk, whole
fresh
Rice, paddy Wheat Mangoes,
mangosteens,
guavas
Vegetables,
fresh nes
Seed cotton Meat
indigenous,
chicken
Potatoes Bananas Soybeans
Current thousand USD
Dairy market India:
INR 13,174 Billion in 2021
INR 30,840 Billion by 2027
https://www.imarcgroup.com/dairy-industry-in-india
FAOSTAT

6
Value of agricultural production USD billion (India)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Agric Livestock Milk
2018: milk 80% of the total value of livestock and 22% total value of agriculture
FAOSTAT

7
GDP and expenditure on dairy per capita
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Per
capita
monthly
consumption
expenditure
INR
Annual
GDP
per
capita
USD
Year
exp dairy rural exp dairy urban GDP per cap
• The amount spent on dairy increased over 30-fold between 1970 and 2011
• The consumption expenditure shares remained constant: 38% rural, 62% urban
GDP: World Development Index data:
https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/public-licenses#cc-by
Dairy expenditure:
https://www.nddb.coop/information/stats/percapitacomsp

8
Milk production, million tonnes; increase in productivity
per milch animal
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
196119631965196719691971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007200920112013201520172019
No.
animals
(millions)
Milk,
million
tonnes
cow buffalo no. adult females (cow and buffalo)
255 litres/
animal
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
Operation flood
1328 litres/
animal
Source: FAOSTAT (production)
Animal numbers: NDDB, from Livestock Census data DAHD&F, GoI

9
FAOSTAT
https://www.statista.com/statistics/268191/cow-milk-production-worldwide-top-producers/
Major producers of cow milk worldwide in 2021
Million
metric
tonnes
Cow milk 96 Buffalo milk 112

10
Per capita milk availability g/day (India)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Source: NDDB from Basic Animal Husbandry Statistics, DAHD&F, GoI

11
India dairy: import and export
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Export and import, USD, 000s
Export Import
FAOSTAT

Lessons to learn
from Indian dairy

13
1946
Kaira District
Cooperative
Milk Producers
formed
1950
Verghese Kurien
joins KDCMPL
1955
Brand Amul
founded
1965
NDDB
established
1973
KDCMPL and Amul
subsumed by Gujerat Co-
operative Milk Marketing
Federation
1974
Mother Dairy
established
1991
Delicensing:
foreign equity
participation
up to 51%
1992
Milk and milk
products order
1994
Exports
decanalized
1995
International
Dairy
Agreement
(WTO), India
does not join
1997
India
surpasses
US as
largest milk
producer
2000
Export
obligations
removed under
TRIMS 2001
India
renegotiates
WTO terms 2001
MMPO
amended,
minimum
threshold for
registration
2002
Milk shed
provision
dissolved in
MMO
2006
Food safety and
standards act
passed
2012
Export
ban, later
revoked
2014
India’s milk
production
surpasses
EU
2016
NCDFI
e-markets 2019
India does
not sign
RCEP
1970 to 1996
Operation flood
Ph 1: 1 million farmers
Ph 2: 10 million farmers
Ph 3: 7 million farmers
Market pull
before
technology
Farmer skills
+
professional
management
Research ‘in its
place’:
- With the
end in mind
- In context:
- Institutional
- Policy
Adapted from: https://www.theindiaforum.in/article/after-flood

14
Policies and
institutions
Technical
Market

Yield gaps remain: technical, market and institutional
0
10
20
30
40
50
S.Asia dairy E.Africa dairy W.Africa beef W.Africa s.ruminants S'n Africa small
ruminants
%
potential
gain
from
interventions
Genetics
Health
Feed
0
10
20
30
40
50
S.Asia dairy E.Africa dairy W.Africa beef W.Africa s.ruminants S'n Africa small
ruminants
%
potential
gain
from
interventions
Mkt access
Input delivery
Staal, S., Poole, J., Baltenweck, I., Mwacharo, J., Notenbaert, A., Randolph, T., Thorpe, W., Nzuma, J. and Herrero, M. 2009. Targeting strategic
investment in livestock development as a vehicle for rural livelihoods. Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation – ILRI Knowledge Generation Project Report.
Nairobi, Kenya: ILRI.

16
Research elements
▪ Opportunities—market pull on productivity drivers:
I. Genetics
II. Health
III. Nutrition (feeds)
▪ Challenges:
I. Livestock and the environment
II. One Health:
I. Zoonotic diseases
II. Antimicrobial resistance
III. Food safety
▪ Market and policy:
I. National government policies
II. Livestock master plans
16
ILRI research
with partners
in India

17
Win-win opportunity
Emission intensity and milk yield
FAO and GDP. 2018. Climate change and the global dairy cattle sector – The role of the dairy sector in a low-carbon future. Rome. 36 pp.
Licence: CC BY-NC-SA- 3.0 IGO

18
South Asia: regional average feed rations
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
dairy cattle dairy buffalo
Fresh grass Hay Crop residues Sugarcane tops Leaves Bran Oilseed meals
Inputs into crop
production
-fertilizer
-mechanical
Crop residues
could be more
efficiently used
for feed
Are
manufacturing
by-products
being well used
for feed?
What about rice
residues?
Livestock: On our plates or eating at our table? A new analysis of the feed/food debate
Anne Mottet, Cees de Haan, Alessandra Falcucci, Giuseppe Tempio, Carolyn Opio, Pierre Gerber http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2017.01.001

19
Opportunity: more and better feed options from crop residues
• Small changes in crop residue quality have a significant impact on milk production:
‘. . . a 1% increase in digestibility of sorghum stover fed to dairy cows leads to a 6-8% increase in milk
production . . .’
• Improve feed quality:
• Inclusion of feed quality parameters in crop breeding parameters (conventional breeding,
genomic selection)
• Significant increase in crop variety uptake, milk yields
• Improve feed utilization through processing
• By manufacturing feed blocks
• By leveraging spin-off technologies from 2nd-generation biofuel technologies
for deconstructing ligno-cellulosic biomass (2-CCT = 2-Chemical Combination Treatment; developed by ILRI with the Council of
Scientific and Industrial Research-Indian Institute of Chemical Technology)
Kristjanson P.M. and Zerbini E. 1999. Genetic Enhancement of Sorghum and Millet Residues Fed to Ruminants. An ex ante assessment of returns to
research. ILRI Impact Assessment Series 2. ILRI (International Livestock Research Institute), Nairobi, Kenya. 52pp.

20
New cultivars and varieties
India leads by exploiting existing cultivar variations
for targeted genetic enhancement
• Developing new dual-purpose cultivars of, e.g.,
pearl millet, sorghum, groundnut, maize, wheat
and rice
• ICRISAT groundnut variety grown on
160,000 ha
• Three superior dual-purpose sorghum
varieties registered in India
• Released maize hybrid most popular in
India

21
Processing technologies
Use of spin-off technologies from 2nd-generation biofuel technologies
can turn crop residues from ‘wastes’ into high-quality concentrates
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0
2 0
2 5
3 0
3 5
4 0
4 5
5 0
5 5
6 0
W e e k s o f e x p e rim e n ta tio n
In
ta
k
e
(g
/k
g
L
W
)
T M R w ith 2 C C tre a te d rice s tra w
T M R w ith ste a m tre a te d rice s tra w
T M R w ith u n tre a te d rice stra w l
x = 4 1 .4
x = 5 2 .3
x = 3 6 .7
+ 3 .9 2 k g L W G
+ 6 .1 2 k g L W G
+ 1 .6 6 k g L W G
R e s p o n s e o f s h e e p fe d to ta l m ix e d ra tio n s c o n ta in in g 7 0 % o f u n tre a te d , 2 C C T
tre a te d a n d s te a m tre a te d ric e s tra w
( Blümmel et al. 2018)
Steam Explosion effect on higher intake
2CCT effect on higher digestibility
2CCT: treatment developed by the Council of Scientific
and Industrial Research-Indian Institute of Chemical
Technology

22
Would rice straw with a digestibility of more than 60%
continue to be burnt?
Better residue quality:
Genetic enhancement
and processing, eg
2-CCT treatment
160 million tonnes rice straw
At least 60% burnt producing
7,300 kg CO2 eq/ha/year
Wasted inputs
Negative
climate impact

23
One Health: ICAR and ILRI research on three key issues at
the animal-human health interface
1. Diagnosis: zoonoses
(Assam, Bihar, Odisha and
Haryana)
Many zoonotic diseases present,
varying incidence
Presenting risks to human health,
milk productivity and farm
economics
2. Diagnosis: antimicrobial
resistance
(Assam, Haryana and Karnataka)
AMR residues and resistance
genes detected
Farmers largely unaware of risks
Solutions to reduce risks
One Health approach at all levels
Strong awareness, motivation, good
production practices, vaccination and
improved biosecurity
Training/solutions: improve handling,
marketing and consumption practices

24
One Health: ICAR and ILRI research on three key issues at
the animal-human health interface
3. Food safety
• Informal dairy
sector critical for
nutrition, health
and livelihoods
• 97% of milk
produced passes
through the
informal sector
• Essential to
improve the
quality and
safety of milk
without
jeopardizing
livelihoods
Improve – not ban –
informal markets
• Producers, traders, market
agents: improved
knowledge, attitude and
practices; increased
productivity
• Safer milk for about 1.5
million consumers
• Benefits: USD5.6 million,
IRR 224%
• New govt and World Bank
multi-million dollar project
in Assam to scale out to 16
project districts
Research-based drivers of change:
• Training, monitoring & certification
(TMC) of informal market actors
• Consumer awareness building
• Incentive mechanisms
• One Health approach

25
Planning future investments:
Livestock master plans for Bihar (complete)
and Odisha (under way)
Cow and buffalo dairy—priority
• Technical interventions and investments:
• Improving feed availability and quality
• Selection and crossbreeding
• Inclusion of women and marginalized communities in all interventions
• Increased processing of milk and marketing of milk products
• Demand-pull strategy of encouraging more public and private investment in
value-adding processing to create assured markets for the additional milk
• Training, price incentives, private investment, AI facilities, feed market options
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/100538

The future:
Dairy in India and beyond

27
India’s population 1961 to 2050: dairy demand continues to grow
(more people and more urban dwellers)
0
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,600,000,000
1,800,000,000 1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
Rural Urban
https://databank.worldbank.org/source/population-estimates-and-projections#

28
Dairy demand in India
115,405
196,321
237,014
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2010 2030 2050
000
M
tonnes
Source: Impact model predictions under moderate climate change in 2050 with assumption
of moderate economic and population growth, with thanks to Dolapo Enahoro (ILRI)

29
Most dairy farms in India raise fewer than ten animals—
but produce 70% of the country’s dairy
IFCN World Dairy Map Version downloaded from www.dairyreport.online ©IFCN 2020
• Still some 75
million
smallholders
engaged in dairy
sector
• Many women
• Multiple (new)
cooperative-type
models

30
Changing contexts and drivers: the transition continues
Climate change
mitigation: production
efficiencies
Climate change
adaptation:
Changing geographies
Youth engagement
Digital opportunities
Consumers:
Diet changes (more
processed)
Food safety
Mixture of large and
small scale
One Health
Incentives for
environmental
sustainability
Key ingredients
remain:
• Research
• Policy
• Institutional
• Market

31
Although lower in total, dairy demand
in Africa will rise slightly faster than India
46,439
70,781
102,864
115,405
196,321
237,014
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2010 2030 2050
000
M
tonnes
Africa India
Source: Impact model predictions under moderate climate change in 2050 with assumption
of moderate economic and population growth, with thanks to Dolapo Enahoro (ILRI)

32
Many other countries face rapid rises in dairy demand:
opportunities for South-South learning
✓ Political will
✓ Policy and institutional environment
✓ Connecting farmers to market (technology ‘push’
doesn’t work)
✓ Building dairy industry from its current smallholder
base
✓ Enabling and improving safe informal markets
✓ Technology elements that work for smallholders,
women, youth:
✓ improved feed
✓ genetics and AI
✓ animal health
✓ Addressing climate challenges (mitigation and
adaptation)

33
ILRI is co-hosted by both the
governments of Ethiopia and
Kenya, with offices in 8 other
countries in Africa (Burking
Faso, Burundi, Mali, Nigeria,
Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda and
Zimbabwe); 4 countries in Asia
(China, India, Nepal and
Vietnam).
ILRI has approximately 650
permanent staff (with a gender
breakdown of 40% female and
60% male).
International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI):
a One CGIAR research centre
• ILRI in South Asia since 2004
• New Delhi: regional office;
coordinating across South Asia
• Three project offices in India:
Hyderabad, Bhubaneswar and
Guwahati

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