Dick Wanderscheid, Director Renewable Energy Special Projects, Renewable Energy Group at Bonneville Environmental Foundation gave this presentation at Forth's webinar on January 14, 2020.

1. 1
Electric Vehicles Cost/Benefit Analysis
January 14th, 2020
Dick Wandersheid, Director, Special Projects, Renewable Energy Group
Travel Oregon (photog: Dylan VanWeelden)

2. Bonneville Environmental Foundation
Northwest Requirements Utilities
Forth Mobility
EV BCA
October 15, 2019
Benefit-cost analysis of EVs for
load following utilities in PNW
Nichole Hanus, Ph.D.
Robbie Shaw
Sierra Spencer
Eric Cutter
Nancy Ryan, Ph.D.

3. 3
Contents
 Executive Summary
 Unmanaged Charging Net-Benefits
• Quantified ratepayer perspective (cars and trucks)
• Generalized regional perspective (cars and trucks)
 Sensitivity Analysis of Unmanaged Charging Cases
• BPA demand charges
• Tier 2 sensitivities
• Qualitative sensitivity analysis
 Emissions Analyses
• Avoided gasoline emissions
• OR Clean Fuels Program
 Managed (“Smart”) Charging Net-Benefits
• Methodology
• Ratepayer perspective results
 Conclusion
Note: “Tier 2” is assumed to be a market purchase
with admin adder, which is also a reasonable
approximation of using non-federal market purchases

4. Executive Summary

5. 5
Goal/Purpose of the Study
To provide BPA Load following
customers with some analytical data
to determine if there are some
proactive actions they should be
undertaking to prepare for EV
arrivals.

6. 6
The Four Proxy Utilities
 Four proxy utilities were selected for the study. We selected utilities that
were close in Total Retail Load size, had varied peaking seasons, and
varied above high water mark loads (including zero).
• Thank you to the 4 NRU members who were gracious enough to share data and
other information necessary for this study.
Peaking
Season
Total Retail
Load (MW)
Above
RHWM
(MW)
Label in
Presentation Charts
Summer 36 6
Summer, Above
RHWM
Dual 28 1
Dual,
Above RHWM
Winter 27 0
Winter,
Below RHWM
Dual 20 0
Dual,
Below RHWM

7. 7
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
TotalEVPopulation
Time horizon: 2020 – 2030 (with 10-yr vehicle life)
Sources estimate 2,800 Electric Vehicles in the
four proxy utility service territories by 2030
140
600
170
730
2030 Population
570
130
330
80
Cars
Trucks
Winter, Below RHWM
Cars
Trucks
Dual, Below RHWM
Cars
Trucks
Dual, Above RHWM
Cars
Trucks
Summer, Above RHWM
Benefit/Cost Component Ratepayer Regional*
Utility bills paid by EV drivers Benefit
Electricity supply costs for EV charging Cost Cost
Incremental EV cost Cost
Charging infrastructure cost Cost
Federal EV tax credit Benefit
EV maintenance savings Benefit
Gasoline savings Benefit*E3 will address components in the Regional Perspective on a qualitative basis.
Sources:
1BNEF = Bloomberg New Energy Finance
2AEO = Annual Energy Outlook from International Energy Agency (IEA)

8. Ratepayer Perspective
Benefit/Cost Analysis (BCA)

9. 9
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
Costs Benefits Costs Benefits Costs Benefits Costs Benefits
OR WA ID MT
NPV($2019/Vehicle)
Tier 1 Energy Supply Cost Tier 2 Energy Supply Cost
Customer Bill Payments Net-Benefit
Summer,
Above RHWM
Dual,
Above RHWM
Dual,
Below RHWM
Winter,
Below RHWM
$300
$420 $780 $550
Ratepayer perspective:
On average, electric cars adopted through 2030 are
expected to create $300-$800 in net ratepayer benefits
Costs
Tier 2 Costs
Tier 1 Costs
Net-Benefits
Customer Bill Payments
Benefits

10. 10
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
Costs Benefits Costs Benefits Costs Benefits Costs Benefits
OR WA ID MT
NPV($2019/Vehicle)
Tier 1 Energy Supply Cost Tier 2 Energy Supply Cost
Customer Bill Payments Net-Benefit
Costs
Tier 2 Costs
Tier 1 Costs
Net-Benefits
Customer Bill Payments
Benefits
$530 $410 $900
$780
Ratepayer perspective:
On average, electric trucks adopted through 2030 are
expected to create $400-$900 in net ratepayer benefits
Summer,
Above RHWM
Dual,
Above RHWM
Dual,
Below RHWM
Winter,
Below RHWM

11. Regional Perspective
Generalizations

12. 12
Regional perspective:
On average, EVs adopted through 2030 are estimated to
add $4,100 per vehicle to the local economy
~$4,000 / Vehicle
~$4,200 / Vehicle
1
Per vehicle charging infrastructure costs and vehicle maintenance savings assumed to be same as what was assumed for an
early 2019 pacific northwest (PNW) IOU EV BCA for LDVs.
2
Per “electric car” incremental vehicle costs assumed to be same as what was assumed for the PNW report. “Electric truck”
incremental costs were scaled up using the EIA’s AEO Outlook 2019.
3
Per “electric car” Federal EV tax credits assumed to be same as what was assumed for the PNW report. “Electric truck” Federal
EV tax credits were scaled down based on what is available for electric SUVs and Trucks in the market.
4
Per “electric car” vehicle gasoline savings assumed to be same as what was assumed for the PNW report. “Electric truck”
gasoline savings were scaled up using EIA’s AEO Outlook 2019.
$-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
Costs
Benefits
Costs
Benefits
Costs
Benefits
Costs
Benefits
OR WA ID MT
NPV($2019/Vehicle)
Regional: Cars
$-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
Costs
Benefits
Costs
Benefits
Costs
Benefits
Costs
Benefits
OR WA ID MT
NPV($2019/Vehicle)
Regional: Trucks
Costs:
Incremental vehicle cost2
Charging infrastructure cost1
Benefits:
Vehicle gasoline savings4
Federal EV tax credit3
Vehicle maintenance savings1
Tier 2 costs
Tier 1 costs
Summer,
Above
RHWM
Dual,
Above
RHWM
Dual,
Below
RHWM
Winter,
Below
RHWM
Summer,
Above
RHWM
Dual,
Above
RHWM
Dual,
Below
RHWM
Winter,
Below
RHWM

13. 13
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
OR Avg. BPA OR Avg. BPA
2020 2025
$2019
Revenue per Vehicle
BEV Cars
PHEV Cars
BEV Trucks
PHEV Trucks
Oregon Clean Fuels Program (OCFP)
 Annual revenues from OCFP under three scenarios:
• High: Credits are capped at $200/credit
• Business as Usual (BAU): Credits equilibrate at $160/credit
• Low Value: Credits outstrip deficits w/ EV adoption; values decrease to $80/credit
High Bound: $200/credit
Low Bound: $80/credit
NPV of Revenue per Vehicle
(2020 - 2025)
OR Avg. BPA
BEV Cars $2,300 $3,500
PHEV Cars $1,800 $2,800
BEV Trucks $2,900 $4,600
PHEV Trucks $2,500 $3,800

14. Managed Charging Results

15. 15
$830 $300 $870 $420 $930 $780 $1,000 $550
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
ManagedCosts
UnmanagedCosts
Benefits
ManagedCosts
UnmanagedCosts
Benefits
ManagedCosts
UnmanagedCosts
Benefits
ManagedCosts
UnmanagedCosts
Benefits
OR WA ID MT
NPV($2019/Vehicle)
Tier 2 Costs
Tier 1 Costs
Costs
Net-Benefits
Customer Bill Payments
Benefits
 These net-benefits are modeled separately from the unmanaged cases (i.e. not additive)
 There are increases in net benefits from managed charging across all proxy utilities
• Increased net benefits range from $57 / vehicle to $427 / vehicle (relative to unmanaged case)
• Magnitude of net benefits are correlated with the of EV load to underlying system peak demand
• Due to flat residential rates, the bulk of the benefits come from energy supply cost reduction – customer bill
payments stay roughly even
Ratepayer perspective (managed charging):
On average, electric cars adopted through 2030 are
expected to create $800-$1,000 in net ratepayer benefits
Summer,
Above RHWM
Dual,
Above RHWM
Dual,
Below RHWM
Winter,
Below RHWM

16. 16
$1,100
$530
$920 $410 $1,000
$900
$1,300 $780
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
ManagedCosts
UnmanagedCosts
Benefits
ManagedCosts
UnmanagedCosts
Benefits
ManagedCosts
UnmanagedCosts
Benefits
ManagedCosts
UnmanagedCosts
Benefits
OR WA ID MT
NPV($2019/Vehicle)
Tier 1 Energy Supply Cost Tier 2 Energy Supply Cost
Customer Bill Payments Net-Benefit
Ratepayer perspective (managed charging):
On average, electric trucks adopted through 2030 are
expected to create $900-$1,300 in net ratepayer benefits
 These net-benefits are modeled separately from the unmanaged cases (i.e. not additive)
 The macro trends present in light-duty car electrification are also present in electric trucks
• Magnitude of net benefits relative to the unmanaged case is correlated with the coincidence of EV load with
underlying system load
Tier 2 Costs
Tier 1 Costs
Costs
Net-Benefits
Customer Bill Payments
Benefits
Summer,
Above RHWM
Dual,
Above RHWM
Dual,
Below RHWM
Winter,
Below RHWM

17. Conclusion

18. 18
Big Picture Impacts from EV Load Growth
 Load Shaping Charge: Under BPA’s current rate structure, proxy utilities that
move towards a form of managed EV charging such as a Time of Use rate that
shifts load from HLH to LLH will experience significant Tier 1 energy supply
cost savings.
 Demand Charge: Coincidence between underlying system load and added
EV load can play a large role in the directionality of BPA’s demand charge
calculation, and is something that should be considered going forward.
 Above Rate Period High Water Mark Load: Added load growth from EV
adoption will quickly drive utility load over the rate period highwater mark.

19. 19
What’s next?
 BEF and Forth will
develop a summary
report and a utility
planning guide for
EVs
 BEF is pursuing EV
pilots with utilities
 BEF is supporting
utilities Clean Fuels
Program activities

20. 20
Dick Wanderscheid
Director, Special Projects, Renewable Energy Group
503-553-3934
dwanderscheid@b-e-f.org