The electric vehicle industry is expected to see significant growth, with global sales projected to reach 38 million by 2030, and total registered electric vehicles to increase nearly 25 times to over 200 million. Battery costs are forecasted to decline further, achieving cost parity with internal combustion engine cars after 2024. China is expected to dominate the market, accounting for 30% of global sales and 47% of electric vehicles in 2019.

1. ELECTRIC
VEHICLES
INDUSTRY ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2021

2. INTRODUCTION
Due to technology innovations battery cost is
expected gradually decline in next few years.
Incorrys expects that electric cars will reach cost
parity with gasoline cars in after 2024. It will lead
to significant growth in electric car production.
In 2030 global sales of electric vehicles will reach
38 million, 26% being sold in China.
In 2030 total registered electric vehicles are
expected to grow almost 25 times and reach
over 200 million.
2

3. ELECTRIC CAR STOCK PER COUNTRY
3
Norway, 223
US, 882
China, 2,581
China, 768
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Number
of
EV
per
Country,
Thousands
BEV PHEV
The chart shows number
of battery electric cars
(BEV)* and hybrid plug-
in electric cars* (PHEV)
in 2019.
China had 47% of all EV
in 2019 while US had
20%.
Total number of all EV
worldwide in 2019 was
7,170,000 up from
17,000 in 2010
Source: IEA Global EV Outlook 2020
* Includes SUVs and light trucks

4. ELECTRIC LIGHT COMMERCIALVEHICLES STOCK PER
COUNTRY
4
4 5 5 7 9 11
19 22
49
247
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Sweden Netherlands US Norway Japan UK Others Germany France China
Number
of
ELCV
per
Country,
Thousands
The chart shows number
of battery and hybrid
plugin electric light
commercial vehicles in
2019.
China had 65% of all
electric light commercial
vehicles in 2019 while
US had 1%.
Total number of all EV
worldwide in 2019 was
378 thousands
Source: IEA Global EV Outlook 2020

5. MARKET SHARE OF NEW ELECTRICVEHICLES
5
Market share is defined as the share of new EV
registrations as a percentage of total new
vehicle registrations
Netherlands, 14%
Norway, 42%
Sweden, 7%
Norway, 14%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Market
Share,
%
BEV PHEV
In 2019, 9 countries had more
than 100 000 electric cars on
the road. At least 20 countries
had EV market shares above
1%
Incorrys estimates that in 2020
the total passenger car market
will contract by 12% over the
year relative to 2019.
However, EV and PHEV will
remain flat compared to 2019
levels.

6. CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE
6
Other, 45382
Netherlands, 49324
UnitedStates, 64265
China, 301238
China, 214670
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
EVSE
Units,
2019
Fast Slow
The chart shows publicly
accessible slow and fast
electric vehicle supply
equipment (EVSE) stock by
country in 2019.
Private
88%
Publicly
Accessible
12%
Total number of chargers in
2019 were 7.3 MM

7. EV FORCAST MODEL
7
EV Production and
Sales
New Vehicle Characteristics
EV Price Range Charging
Time
Operational Parameters
Saving compared with ICE
Energy
Cost
Maintenance
Cost
Total Cost of
Ownership
(Compared with ICE)
Government
Incentives
Charging
Infrastructure
Environmental
and other
consideration
Battery
Cost
Other
Characteristics
Publicly
Accessible
Private
Separately for
• Passenger cars, SUV, light trucks
• Buses
• Light Commercials Vehicles
• Large Trucks
• Battery-powered electric
vehicles (BEV)
• Plugin hybrid electric
vehicles (PHEV)

8. ELECTRICVECHILE BATTERY COST
8
Source: Bloomberg and Incorrys Analysis
September 2020 Tesla Battery Day Presentation:
Announced battery cost reduction activities
EV battery pack cost reduction: Actuals and
Forecast
The cost of battery pack has fallen to slightly above USD $140/kWh in 2020,
from USD $1,100/kWh in 2010. Incorrys expects that cost will continue to drop
and reach $100/kWh in 2023.
Incorrys estimates that cost parity with ICE vehicles will be achieved after 2024
and battery pack cost will drop to $85 /kWh.
0
50
100
150
200
250
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Barrery
Cost,
$/kWh
Estimated cost
parity threhold
0
50
100
150
Current After Improvements
Battery
Cost,
$/kWh
Integraed vehiche design Cathode production improvements
Improved chemistry, inc. using silicon Manufacturing process improvements
Cell form factor Full Cost
Estimated cost parity
threhold

9. ELECTRICVEHICLE PRICEVS. BATTERY CAPACITY
9
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Vehicle
Retail
Price,
USD
Battery, kWh
2020 Production Models 2021-22 Models
Retail car price per kWh of
battery capacity is expected
to drop almost 15% to
USD$875/kWh for 2021-22
models from
USD$1,025/kWh for 2019
production models.

10. ELECTRICVEHICLE PRICEVS. RANGE
10
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Retail
Vehicle
Price,
USD
Range on one charge, km
2020 Production Models 2021-22 Models
Average retail price of
electric vehicle per km of
range is expected to fall
16% from USD$177/km
in 2020 to USD$211/km
in 2021-22,
Average range of 2021-
2022 vehicles will
increase to almost 400
km up from 310 km in
2020.

11. CHANGINGTIME FOR ELECTRICVEHICLES
11
Charger Type Electric Car Range added
AC Level 1
240V 2-3kW
Up to 15km/hour
AC Level 2 “Wall Charger”
240V 7KW
Up to 40km/hour
AC Level 2 “Destination Charger”
415V 11-22kW
60-120km/hour
DC Fast Charger
50kW DC Fast Charger
Around 40km/10 min
DC Rapid Charger
175kW DC Fast Charger
Around 200km/ 15 min
Source: thedriven.io
Changing time for electric vehicles
is measured by range added by
hour of charging.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2020 Models 2021-22 Models
Average
Charging
Time,
h/km
30% increase
Charging time is determined by charger type as well as electric vehicle
hardware.

12. ELECTRICVEHICLE EFFICIENCY
12
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
100 150 200 250 300
Vehicle
Retail
Price,
USD
Efficiency, Wh/km
2020 Production Models 2021-22 Models
Electric vehicle average
efficiency is expected to
stay flat for 2021-22
model compared to 2020
models at around 192
Wh/km.
As average range of new
vehicles increases,
average retail price of
electric vehicle per unit
of efficiency is expected
to increase to USD$366
per Wh/km in 2021-22
from USD$336 per
Wh/km in 2020.

13. TOTAL NUMBER OF ELECTRICVEHICLESWORDWIDE
13
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Number
of
vehicles,
mln
Cars - BEV Cars - PHEV LCVs - BEV LCVs - PHEV Buses - BEV Buses - PHEV Trucks - BEV Trucks - PHEV
In 2030 total
registered electric
vehicles will grow
almost 25 times
from current levels,
reaching over 200
MM.
Battery powered
cars will represent
84% of all
registered electric
vehicles.

14. ANNUAL EV SALES
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
China Europe US India Japan Others
Production
of
new
vehicles
in
2030,
mln
In 2030, global sales of electric vehicles will
reach 38 MM with China accounting for the
largest share at 30% of sales.
China
30%
Europe
18%
US
12%
India
9%
Japan
5%
Others
26%
China Europe US India Japan Others

15. TOTAL NUMBER OF ELECTRICVEHICLES IN US
15
In 2030 Incorrys
expects total
registered electric
vehicles in US will
reach 36 MM, up
from 1.44 MM in
2019.
Battery powered
cars, SUVs and
light trucks in US
will represent 69%
of all registered
electric vehicles.
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Number
of
vehicles,
mln
Cars - BEV Cars - PHEV LCVs - BEV LCVs - PHEV Buses - BEV Buses - PHEV Trucks - BEV Trucks - PHEV

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