This document discusses the effects of climate change on agriculture. It notes that agriculture is significantly affected by changes in climate conditions, including impacts on crop growth, increased weather variability, and extreme conditions like floods and droughts. Both direct impacts like changes in temperature and precipitation and indirect impacts like changing pest and weed ranges negatively impact agriculture. Building resilient agricultural systems through climate-ready crops and improved understanding of vulnerabilities can help mitigate these effects. The document also discusses the role of agriculture in carbon sequestration and calls for further research on climate projections, models, and resilient production practices.

1. U.VEDADRI
TAM/2013-31
Dept. Of Soil Science
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
AGRICULTURE

6. AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE
 Agriculture has been and will continue to be
significantly affected by changes in climate
conditions- quantity, quality, cost of production
 Existing adaption strategies can help offset many
– but not all –effects over the next 20-30 years;
effects are very likely to worsen significantly
beyond then, especially if GHG emissions remain
high

9. Direct impacts
 Crop growth-Physiology & Morphology.
 Temp/precip. Changes.
 Increased variability in weather
 Extreme conditions-Floods &Droughts.
 Sea level rise & surge – inundating & ruining coastal
agricultural lands
 Soil fertility

11. Banana orchard &
paddy effected by
Nilam cyclone in
2012 Nov.

12. Indirect impacts
 Changing crop-weed competition dynamics
 Range changes of pests & pathogens
 Expanded range predicted for many pathogens
 Less-cold winters allow increase in pests
 Different range changes between pests & pathogens and natural
controls
 Decreased biodiversity in natural ecosystems

13. INCREASED BIOTIC STRESSES
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT AGRICULTURE
Insect pests
• Greater numbers, increased insecticide resistance
• Geographic ranges increases & decreases
• Imports from foreign sources
Pathogens
• Host-pathogen response changes (plants, insects,)
• Cultural control measures may be less reliable
• Extreme events can spread
• Weeds
– Increased vigor, herbicide resistance
– Geographic range increases & decreases

14. Socio – Economic conditions
 Food demand
 cost &benefits
 Trade
 Farmers response

16.  Changes in farmer behavior
 Changes in production, consumption, prices, and trade
patterns
Domestic and global market response
 Economic effects depend on domestic and global adaptive
capacity
 Impacts vary by region, by sector, and by stakeholder
group
RESPONSES OF AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

17. How to mitigate the effects?

19. BUILDING AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE
• Enhanced understanding of the role of natural resource base (water and
soil)
• Understand Potential Exposures
• Focus on extremes as well as mean changes
• Understand Sensitivities
• Define critical thresholds & interactions
• Enhance Adaptive Capacity
• Resilient systems: Climate-ready crops & production systems
• Improved treatment of uncertainty and risk in climate and adaptation
decision-making and policy
• Potential impacts are real but inherently uncertain

20. AGRICULTURE AS PART OF THE SOLUTION
 Increasing carbon sequestration through land
management
• Agroforestry
• Rotations with cover crops, green manure
 Conservation tillage
 Could reduce global CO2 emissions by 5-15%
 Organic farming (but limited benefits)
 Enhances carbon storage in soil

21. RESEARCH NEEDS
 Better short-term & long-term climate projections
 Improved representation of processes, events
 Regional & national
 Updated models and ecosystem manipulation capacity
 Biophysical + economic + social
 Understand basic processes
 Interactions
 Systems perspectives
 Resilient production systems
 Best practices for soil and water conservation
 Manage to enhance adaptive capacity at field, farm and landscape
scales

23. U.VEDADRI
TAM/2013-31
Thank you