30. märtsil kell 11 tutvustavad Eesti Panga president Madis Müller ja asepresident Ülo Kaasik kõigile majandushuvilistele keskpanga äsja valminud majandusprognoosi.
This document summarizes an economic forum held by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). It includes the following:
- An agenda for presentations on the state of the UK economy, factors driving inflation, discretionary spending over winter, and a question and answer session.
- A presentation by the ONS Chief Economist giving an overview of the UK economy, noting that growth forecasts still point to a challenging 2023, with industrial action and higher economic inactivity as issues.
- A presentation by an ONS analyst discussing how both reopening of the economy (increasing demand) and supply bottlenecks have contributed to inflation in the UK since the pandemic, though these impacts are falling.
- A presentation
Global Views on Immigration and the Refugee CrisisIpsos UK
The document discusses views on immigration and the refugee crisis based on a poll of over 16,000 people in 22 countries. It finds that most believe immigration has increased in their country over the last 5 years and have a negative view of its impact. Specifically, about half feel immigration is causing unwanted changes and has put too much pressure on public services and jobs. Concerns are highest in Turkey, Russia, and South Africa.
The strategic plan outlines three strategic goals for the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine from 2018-2021:
1) Increase the efficiency of allocation and use of budget funds.
2) Create transparent, effective, and fair tax and customs systems that contribute to economic development and comply with EU standards.
3) Develop a financial system that supports macroeconomic stability, effective financial monitoring, and uses resources to support economic development.
The plan analyzes the current situation for each strategic goal and identifies 13 objectives and related activities to achieve the goals over the next three years. Key areas of focus include medium-term budget planning, fiscal risk management, budget transparency, tax system efficiency, and ensuring financial sector stability.
The theme for this quarter is apprehension. In September, the US Federal Reserve announced a third 75 basis point increase in the federal funds rate. In the aftermath, the two-year treasury rate reached the highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis and the spread between two and ten-year rates went below negative 50basis points for the first time since the early eighties. Equity markets have begun to price in the likelihood of a recession and, if history is any indication, the impact on oil markets could be profound.
30. märtsil kell 11 tutvustavad Eesti Panga president Madis Müller ja asepresident Ülo Kaasik kõigile majandushuvilistele keskpanga äsja valminud majandusprognoosi.
This document summarizes an economic forum held by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). It includes the following:
- An agenda for presentations on the state of the UK economy, factors driving inflation, discretionary spending over winter, and a question and answer session.
- A presentation by the ONS Chief Economist giving an overview of the UK economy, noting that growth forecasts still point to a challenging 2023, with industrial action and higher economic inactivity as issues.
- A presentation by an ONS analyst discussing how both reopening of the economy (increasing demand) and supply bottlenecks have contributed to inflation in the UK since the pandemic, though these impacts are falling.
- A presentation
Global Views on Immigration and the Refugee CrisisIpsos UK
The document discusses views on immigration and the refugee crisis based on a poll of over 16,000 people in 22 countries. It finds that most believe immigration has increased in their country over the last 5 years and have a negative view of its impact. Specifically, about half feel immigration is causing unwanted changes and has put too much pressure on public services and jobs. Concerns are highest in Turkey, Russia, and South Africa.
The strategic plan outlines three strategic goals for the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine from 2018-2021:
1) Increase the efficiency of allocation and use of budget funds.
2) Create transparent, effective, and fair tax and customs systems that contribute to economic development and comply with EU standards.
3) Develop a financial system that supports macroeconomic stability, effective financial monitoring, and uses resources to support economic development.
The plan analyzes the current situation for each strategic goal and identifies 13 objectives and related activities to achieve the goals over the next three years. Key areas of focus include medium-term budget planning, fiscal risk management, budget transparency, tax system efficiency, and ensuring financial sector stability.
The theme for this quarter is apprehension. In September, the US Federal Reserve announced a third 75 basis point increase in the federal funds rate. In the aftermath, the two-year treasury rate reached the highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis and the spread between two and ten-year rates went below negative 50basis points for the first time since the early eighties. Equity markets have begun to price in the likelihood of a recession and, if history is any indication, the impact on oil markets could be profound.
Sosiaali- ja terveysministeriö järjesti 3.6.2021 Ikäkyvykkyyttä ikäohjelmalla -webinaarin. Ikäohjelman tavoitteena on toimintakykyisen ikääntymisen turvaaminen ja kestävän palvelujärjestelmän rakentaminen. Poikkihallinnollinen ikäohjelma on laadittu yhdessä eri ministeriöiden, kuntien, kolmannen sektorin ja muiden toimijoiden kanssa. Webinaarin tavoitteena oli kertoa Ikäohjelmasta ja käydä keskustelua sen toteuttamisesta.
SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 17 July 2023.pptxMattBaker737276
This document summarizes findings from the Office for National Statistics' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey regarding the impact of increased cost of living on adults in Great Britain from February to May 2023. Key findings include:
- 9 in 10 adults reported that the cost of living is an important issue facing UK society.
- Over this period, more adults reported making cuts to essential spending like food and utilities or falling behind on bills and payments compared to previous periods.
- Those already in vulnerable financial circumstances before the increased costs, including disabled people, families with children, and low-income households, continued to report the greatest impacts.
Sanofi reported strong financial results for 2022, with company sales growing 7.0% to €42,997 million and business EPS increasing 17.1% to €8.26. The company will continue investing in science as it launches the next phase of its strategy to maintain progress developing first and best in class medicines. Recent regulatory approvals in Europe include treatments for prurigo nodularis, a COVID-19 booster vaccine, prevention of respiratory syncytial virus in infants, and cold agglutinin disease.
Tutkimuspäällikkö, dosentti Liisa Valsta, THL. Mitä FinTerveys-tutkimus kertoo suomalaisten ravitsemuksesta. Suomalaisen ruokavalion laatu. Kansanterveyspäivän 13.4.2018 esitys.
The document summarizes an economic forum held by the Office for National Statistics. It includes an agenda for presentations on the state of the UK economy, measures of economic progress beyond GDP, and experimental regional capital expenditure estimates. The first presentation by the ONS Chief Economist provides an overview of recent economic indicators for the UK like slowing GDP growth, high inflation, and weak business investment. Other presentations explore measuring environmental and social factors related to economic progress and developing subnational capital stock estimates.
Latvijas Bankas ekonomistes Santas Bērziņas un Ievas Opmanes prezentācija sanāksmē ar starptautisko reitinga aģentūru "Moody's Investors Service" 2022. gada 24. martā.
These are the slides presented at the Economic Forum on 18 July 2022.
Showcasing the latest economic and social developments with a wide range of analytic topics. Each month we will feature "State of the Economy", providing a stocktake of the latest trends and developments.
Presentations this month include:
Subnational regional productivity in the UK
Homeworking in the UK - regional patterns: 2019 to 2022
Family spending in the UK
Transforming consumer prices statistics with new data and methods: rail fares and second-hand cars
Data science is one of the hottest and fastest-growing fields in companies around the world. But it remains a highly male-dominated field, with women making up as few as 15% of data science professionals globally. This gender imbalance is a
significant threat to sustainable growth and to unbiased, safe AI
Responses to a BCG global survey of over 9,000 current and former students across ten countries make it clear that a
significant share of the problem lies with the companies themselves.
O documento descreve a proposta de criação da Área de Proteção Ambiental (APA) Bororé-Itaim em São Paulo, incluindo seus objetivos de proteger a biodiversidade local e recursos hídricos, promover o desenvolvimento sustentável da região e melhorar a qualidade de vida das comunidades. Detalha a história da proposta, limites, gestão, aspectos socioeconômicos, patrimônio cultural e ambiental da área.
Welcome to the monthly economic forum. Here we will be showcasing the latest economic and social developments with a wide range of analytic topics. Each month we will feature 'State of the Economy', providing a stocktake of the latest trends and developments.
The APCO Geopolitical Risk Radar (AGRR) offers a timely snapshot of the global operating environment for businesses. It predicts how regional risks come together at a global level and offers a baseline from which to develop strategies to navigate, mitigate and grow through these risks.
20. septembril kell 11 tutvustavad Eesti Panga president Madis Müller ja prognoosimeeskonna juht Rasmus Kattai kõigile majandushuvilistele keskpanga äsja valminud majandusprognoosi.
Sosiaali- ja terveysministeriö järjesti 3.6.2021 Ikäkyvykkyyttä ikäohjelmalla -webinaarin. Ikäohjelman tavoitteena on toimintakykyisen ikääntymisen turvaaminen ja kestävän palvelujärjestelmän rakentaminen. Poikkihallinnollinen ikäohjelma on laadittu yhdessä eri ministeriöiden, kuntien, kolmannen sektorin ja muiden toimijoiden kanssa. Webinaarin tavoitteena oli kertoa Ikäohjelmasta ja käydä keskustelua sen toteuttamisesta.
SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 17 July 2023.pptxMattBaker737276
This document summarizes findings from the Office for National Statistics' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey regarding the impact of increased cost of living on adults in Great Britain from February to May 2023. Key findings include:
- 9 in 10 adults reported that the cost of living is an important issue facing UK society.
- Over this period, more adults reported making cuts to essential spending like food and utilities or falling behind on bills and payments compared to previous periods.
- Those already in vulnerable financial circumstances before the increased costs, including disabled people, families with children, and low-income households, continued to report the greatest impacts.
Sanofi reported strong financial results for 2022, with company sales growing 7.0% to €42,997 million and business EPS increasing 17.1% to €8.26. The company will continue investing in science as it launches the next phase of its strategy to maintain progress developing first and best in class medicines. Recent regulatory approvals in Europe include treatments for prurigo nodularis, a COVID-19 booster vaccine, prevention of respiratory syncytial virus in infants, and cold agglutinin disease.
Tutkimuspäällikkö, dosentti Liisa Valsta, THL. Mitä FinTerveys-tutkimus kertoo suomalaisten ravitsemuksesta. Suomalaisen ruokavalion laatu. Kansanterveyspäivän 13.4.2018 esitys.
The document summarizes an economic forum held by the Office for National Statistics. It includes an agenda for presentations on the state of the UK economy, measures of economic progress beyond GDP, and experimental regional capital expenditure estimates. The first presentation by the ONS Chief Economist provides an overview of recent economic indicators for the UK like slowing GDP growth, high inflation, and weak business investment. Other presentations explore measuring environmental and social factors related to economic progress and developing subnational capital stock estimates.
Latvijas Bankas ekonomistes Santas Bērziņas un Ievas Opmanes prezentācija sanāksmē ar starptautisko reitinga aģentūru "Moody's Investors Service" 2022. gada 24. martā.
These are the slides presented at the Economic Forum on 18 July 2022.
Showcasing the latest economic and social developments with a wide range of analytic topics. Each month we will feature "State of the Economy", providing a stocktake of the latest trends and developments.
Presentations this month include:
Subnational regional productivity in the UK
Homeworking in the UK - regional patterns: 2019 to 2022
Family spending in the UK
Transforming consumer prices statistics with new data and methods: rail fares and second-hand cars
Data science is one of the hottest and fastest-growing fields in companies around the world. But it remains a highly male-dominated field, with women making up as few as 15% of data science professionals globally. This gender imbalance is a
significant threat to sustainable growth and to unbiased, safe AI
Responses to a BCG global survey of over 9,000 current and former students across ten countries make it clear that a
significant share of the problem lies with the companies themselves.
O documento descreve a proposta de criação da Área de Proteção Ambiental (APA) Bororé-Itaim em São Paulo, incluindo seus objetivos de proteger a biodiversidade local e recursos hídricos, promover o desenvolvimento sustentável da região e melhorar a qualidade de vida das comunidades. Detalha a história da proposta, limites, gestão, aspectos socioeconômicos, patrimônio cultural e ambiental da área.
Welcome to the monthly economic forum. Here we will be showcasing the latest economic and social developments with a wide range of analytic topics. Each month we will feature 'State of the Economy', providing a stocktake of the latest trends and developments.
The APCO Geopolitical Risk Radar (AGRR) offers a timely snapshot of the global operating environment for businesses. It predicts how regional risks come together at a global level and offers a baseline from which to develop strategies to navigate, mitigate and grow through these risks.
20. septembril kell 11 tutvustavad Eesti Panga president Madis Müller ja prognoosimeeskonna juht Rasmus Kattai kõigile majandushuvilistele keskpanga äsja valminud majandusprognoosi.
Slaidid 16.12.2020 pressikonverentsilt, kus Eesti Panga president Madis Müller ja asepresident Ülo Kaasik tutvustasid keskpanga värsket majandusprognoosi.
12. juuni 2019
Kõik seonduvad materjalid leiate aadressilt https://www.eestipank.ee/press/jargmistel-aastatel-voiksid-saasta-nii-inimesed-kui-ka-riik-12062019
21. detsembril kell 11 tutvustavad Eesti Panga president Madis Müller ja asepresident Ülo Kaasik kõigile majandushuvilistele keskpanga äsja valminud majandusprognoosi.
Pressikonverents Eesti Pangas, kus keskpanga president Madis Müller ja finantsstabiilsuse osakonna juhataja Jaak Tõrs tutvustavad ülevaadet, mis analüüsib suuremaid riske Eesti finantssektoris.
Pressikonverentsil saab teada:
kuidas majanduse jahenemine, kiire hinnakasv ja intresside tõus mõjutavad inimeste ja ettevõtete võimet laene tagasi maksta
milline mõju saab majanduse jahenemisel olema uute laenude andmisel ettevõtetele ja inimestele
kuidas mõjutavad võlakirjaturgudel toimuvad muutused Eesti pangandussektori rahastamist
milliseid samme tuleb keskpanga hinnangul astuda finantssektori tugevuse kindlustamiseks.
27.04.2022 pressikonverents, kus keskpanga president Madis Müller ja finantsstabiilsuse osakonna juhataja Jaak Tõrs tutvustavad finantsstabiilsuse ülevaadet ja sellest lähtuvaid järeldusi.
Eesti Panga pressikonverents 19. detsembril 2018, kus keskpanga president Ardo Hansson ning asepresident Ülo Kaasik tutvustavad Eesti majanduse viimase aja arengut ja keskpanga majandusprognoosi.
Pressikonverentsil antakse ülevaade järgmistest teemadest:
• mis on juhtunud Eesti majanduse konkurentsivõimega?
• millised on kiire palgakasvu head ja halvad küljed?
• kui kiiresti aeglustub praegune järsk hinnatõus?
• keskpanga hinnang 2019. aasta riigieelarvele ja soovitus 2020. aastaks
Similar to Eesti Panga majandusprognoos 2022–2024 (20)
Eesti Panga president Madis Müller ja finantsstabiilsuse osakonna juhataja Jaak Tõrs tutvustasid kõigile majandushuvilistele äsja valminud Eesti finantssektori ülevaadet.
Karsten Staehr. Macroeconomic News and Sovereign Interest Rate Spreads before...Eesti Pank
1. The document analyzes how the effect of macroeconomic news on Italian sovereign interest rate spreads changed before and during the ECB's quantitative easing program from 2014-2022.
2. It finds that macroeconomic news had a significant effect on spreads before QE, with a coefficient of around -4, whereas the effect during QE was near zero, with the difference being statistically significant.
3. The results were robust to different specifications and definitions of news shocks. This suggests that QE helped insulate sovereign bond spreads from the impact of macroeconomic news by removing tail risks and "killing normal market reactions to news."
Majanduse Rahastamise Ülevaade. Veebruar 2023Eesti Pank
22.02.2023 Eesti Panga ökonomistid Taavi Raudsaar ja Mari Tamm tutvustasid äsja valminud Majanduse Rahastamise Ülevaadet ehk millised on Eesti majapidamiste ja ettevõtete rahastamisvõimalused.
The Sufficiency of Debt Relief as a Panacea to Sovereign Debt Crisis in Sub-S...Eesti Pank
The thesis analyzes the efficacy of debt relief as a solution to sovereign debt crises in Sub-Saharan Africa, using Ghana, Nigeria, and Zambia as case studies. It conducts debt sustainability analyses under various scenarios of partial or full debt reduction, cancellation, and standstills. Structural impulse response analyses show how macroeconomic factors like growth, interest rates, and exchange rates impact debt levels over time. The results suggest that debt relief can reduce debt burdens but economic reforms are also needed for long-term sustainability. Limitations include low frequency data and lower assumed interest rates.
Luck and skill in the performance of global equity funds in Central and Easte...Eesti Pank
The document summarizes a study examining the performance of actively managed global equity funds in Central and Eastern Europe between 2005-2019. The study uses a bootstrap methodology to separate fund manager skill from luck. Key findings include:
- Approximately 5% of funds showed skill in outperforming their benchmarks gross of fees, with one fund in particular outperforming factor returns net and gross of fees.
- Most funds that underperformed did so due to lack of skill rather than bad luck.
- Fees were too high relative to the abnormal performance added by many mutual funds.
- While some fund managers possessed skill, it was generally not enough to cover their fees, suggesting fees may be too high or competition
The document summarizes a study examining how Lithuanian food manufacturing firms adjusted to trade sanctions imposed by Russia in 2014 that banned many agricultural imports from the EU.
The main adjustments included:
- Reducing part-time employment as the most flexible margin of adjustment. Larger reductions occurred for firms more exposed to the Russian market.
- Increasing exports to other countries to compensate for lost Russian exports. More exposed firms increased other exports more.
- Decreasing investment and full-time employment for more exposed firms, though full-time employment adjustments took longer.
A conceptual framework is presented predicting this sequence of adjustments, with part-time labor adjusting first due to lower costs, followed by exports, investment,
The document provides an economic forecast for Estonia from 2022-2025. It finds that high inflation and energy prices are hurting the global and European economies. Inflation in Estonia is projected to remain high in 2023 before slowly falling in 2024-2025. Interest rates are also expected to continue rising to curb inflation. Fiscal policy measures risk exacerbating inflation. Overall the Estonian economy is forecast to recover by late 2023 but high costs and uncertainty will continue weighing on growth.
Fabio Canovaand Evi Pappa. Costly disasters, energy consumption, and the role...Eesti Pank
Neljapäeval, 20. oktoobril 2022 toimus Eesti Panga avatud seminar, kus rahvusvaheliselt tunnustatud majandusteadlane Fabio Canova tutvustas koos Evi Pappaga valminud uurimustööd „Kulukad looduskatastroofid, energiatarbimine ning eelarvepoliitika“ (Costly disasters, energy consumption, and the role of fiscal policy).
Romain Duval. IMF Regional Economic Outlook for EuropeEesti Pank
31. oktoobril 2022 toimus Eesti Panga avatud seminar, kus Rahvusvahelise Valuutafondi esindaja Romain A. Duval tutvustas IMFi Euroopa osakonnas vastvalminud regionaalset majandusväljavaadet.
Majanduse Rahastamise Ülevaade. Veebruar 2022Eesti Pank
16.02.2022 toimus veebiseminar, kus Eesti Panga ökonomistid Taavi Raudsaar ja Anita Donaldson tutvustasid Majanduse Rahastamise Ülevaadet ehk millised on Eesti ettevõtete ja majapidamiste rahastamisvõimalused.
3...2021 pressikonverents Eesti Pangas, kus keskpanga president Madis Müller ja finantsstabiilsuse osakonna juhataja Jaak Tõrs tutvustasid finantsstabiilsuse ülevaadet ja sellest lähtuvaid järeldusi.
Eesti Panga ökonomist Kaspar Oja käis Ehituskonsultatsiooni Ettevõtete Liidu (EKEL) aastakoosolekul rääkimas majanduse hetkeseisust ja pikkadest trendidest, mis kujundavad Eesti ehitusturgu.
3. • Eesti majanduskasv aeglustunuks sel aastal ka sõja mõjudeta
• Võrreldes märtsiprognoosiga on selle aasta kasv parem lisaeelarve tõttu
• Sõja esimestel kuudel märgatav mõju Eesti majandusele puudub (v.a
hinnad), mõju hakkab avalduma aasta teises pooles
• Hinnakasv on laiapõhjaline ja energia kallinemine kandub edaspidi üle ka
teiste toodete ja kaupade hindadesse
• Eesti hinnakasv aeglustub u 2%ni 2024. aastal, ent hinnatase jääb
kõrgemaks kui varem prognoositud
• Järsk elukalliduse tõus on püsiv, nö uus normaalsus, millest tuleb
sissetulekute suurenemise teel väja kasvada
• Riigi sammud inflatsiooni mõju leevendamisel peaks olema võimalikult
hästi sihitud, et vältida täiendavat hinnakasvu
3
5. EBAKINDLUSEST JA TOOTMISKULUDE KIIREST KASVUST
HOOLIMATA EI TUNNETA EKSPORTIJAD KONKURENTSIVÕIME
VÄHENEMIST
5
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10 konkurentsivõime ELi turul
konkurentsivõime väljaspool ELi
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Allikas: Euroopa Komisjon.
6. SOOV TÖÖTAJATE HULKA SUURENDADA ON
ENDISELT OLEMAS
6
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Allikad: EMTA, Eesti Pank.
PALGASAAJATE ARVU MUUTUS
kogu majandus
erasektor
avalik sektor
7. JÄTKUVALT ON ROHKEM NEID TÖÖANDJAID, KES
OOTAVAD HÕIVE KASVU
7
Allikas: Euroopa Komisjon.
8. 2022. AASTA HÕIVET TÕSTAB AASTA ALGUSE
ÜLITUGEV TÖÖTURU SEIS
8
• 2022. aasta hõive kasv
peegeldab I kv
erakordselt kõrget taset
• 2023. aasta algusest
kajastuvad hõives
põgenikud – u 0,9%
hõive kasvust
• Pikemas vaates
rahvastik vananeb ja
tööjõud kahaneb
Allikad: statistikaamet, Eesti Pank.
HÕIVE MUUTUS
9. -5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
PALGAKASV ON PÜSINUD KIIRENEVAL
KURSIL
9
Allikad: EMTA, Eesti Pank.
PALGAMUUTUS
kogu majandus
erasektor
avalik sektor
10. PALGA JA SISENDHINDADE KIIRE KASV EI
OLE KASUMEID KAHANDANUD
10
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Allikad: statistikaamet, Eesti Pank.
KASUMI MUUTUS AASTA VARASEMAGA VÕRRELDES
12. TÖÖPUUDUS KASVAB, SEST AASTA ALGUSES
SUURENENUD AKTIIVSUS ON PÜSIV
12
Allikad: statistikaamet, Eesti Pank.
• Põgenike töötuse määr
kahaneb praegusega
võrreldes, kuid jääb
edaspidi kõrgemaks kui
kohalikel. See tõstab
2023. aastal töötuse
määra lisaks mõnevõrra
jahedamale
majanduskeskkonnale
TÖÖPUUDUSE MÄÄR
13. MAJANDUSKASV AEGLUSTUB, SEST MAJANDUSE KIIRE
KASVU VÕIMALUSED OLID AMMENDUNUD
13
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
MAJANDUSKASV
1,5% 1,9%
3,1%
Allikad: statistikaamet, Eesti Pank.
Samas prognoositi kasvu aeglustumist samal põhjusel juba eelmisel aastal
14. HINNAKASV ON JÄRJEST TUGEVAMALT
JÕUDMAS ALUSINFLATSIOONI
14
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Toit
Energia
Alusinflatsioon
Kokku
TARBIJAHINDADE AASTANE MUUTUS
%
%
%
%
%
%
Allikad: statistikaamet, Eesti Pank.
15. ENERGIA TARBIJAHINNAD JÄÄVAD KÕRGEKS
ÜHTLUSTATUD TARBIJAHINNAINDEKS
(2015 =100)
Allikad: statistikaamet, Eesti Pank.
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Energia kokku
Elekter
Maagaas
Tahked kütused
Soojusenergia
Mootorikütused
16. SELLE AASTA OODATAV HINNAKASV ON ÜLE 15%
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
alusinflatsioon toit energia ÜTHI kokku
15,4%
4,5%
1,8%
Allikad: statistikaamet, Eesti Pank.
17. HINNATASE JÄÄB PÜSIVALT KÕRGEMAKS, KUI
VAREM PROGNOOSITUD
17
1,8
1,9
2
2,1
2,2
2,3
2,4
2,5
2,6
+8,5%
Juuni 2022
2
2,1
2,2
2,3
2,4
2,5
2,6
2,7
2,8
+6,5%
2
2,1
2,2
2,3
2,4
2,5
2,6
2,7
2,8
2,9
+4,3%
3
3,5
4
4,5
5
5,5
6
6,5
+25,5%
THI TEENUSED TOIT ENERGIA
Detsember 2021
Allikad: statistikaamet, Eesti Pank.
18. • Kiire hindade ja palkade kasv soosib sel aastal
maksulaekumist aeglasest majanduskasvust
hoolimata
• Järgnevatel aastatel aga ei piisa
eelarvepuudujäägi vähenemiseks ainult
majanduse olukorra paranemisest – struktuurne
puudujääk on kujunenud püsivaks
• 2023. aastal rakenduvad korraga
püsikulusid tõstev (erakorraline
pensionitõus) ja tulusid alandav meede
(keskmise pensioni tulumaksuvabastus),
kaitsekulud kasvavad, hinnatõus jõuab
valitsemissektori kuludesse ja väga kiire
palgakasv erasektoris sunnib kiirendama
palgakasvu ka valitsemissektoris
EELARVE STRUKTUURNE PUUDUJÄÄK ON
KUJUNEMAS PÜSIVAKS, SEST UUTELE KULUDELE
POLE LOODUD PIISAVALT KATTEALLIKAID
18
Allikad: statistikaamet, Eesti Pank.
25. EUROOPA KESKPANGA JUUNIPROGNOOSI JÄRGI
AEGLUSTUB HINNATÕUS 2024. AASTAKS 2,1% PEALE
25
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8 EUROALA INFLATSIOON, %
Allikas: Euroopa Keskpank.
26. EBAKINDLUS ON JÄTKUVALT VÄGA SUUR
(PEAMISELT VÕIMENDAB SEDA VENEMAA AGRESSIOON UKRAINAS)
26
JUUNI BAASPROGNOOS NEGATIIVNE STSENAARIUM
2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024
SKP KASV, % 2,8 2,1 2,1 1,3 -1,7 3,0
TÖÖPUUDUS, % 6,8 6,8 6,7 7,1 8,3 8,6
INFLATSIOON, % 6,8 3,5 2,1 8,0 6,4 1,9
ALUSINFLATSIOON, % 3,3 2,8 2,3 3,3 3,2 2,0
Allikas: Euroopa Keskpank.
27. • Varaostukava (APP) netoostud lõpetatakse 1. juulist 2022 ehk
vahetult enne seda, kui nõukogu hakkab EKP baasintressimäärasid
tõstma
• Reinvesteerimine jätkub seni, kuni see on vajalik asjakohase
rahapoliitilise kursi säilitamiseks
• Euroopa Keskpanga nõukogu kavatseb juulis tõsta
baasintressimäärasid 0,25 protsendipunkti võrra
• Praeguste ootuste kohaselt nõukogu tõstab intressimäärasid uuesti
septembris. Nõukogu on valmis tegema suurema intressitõusu, kui
inflatsiooniprognoos püsib või halveneb
• Nõukogu eeldab, et järkjärgulised ja püsivad intressitõusud on
vajalikud ka pärast septembrit
RAHAPOLIITIKA AITAB TÜÜRIDA INFLATSIOONI 2% EESMÄRGINI
27
28. -1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
MUUTUSED RAHAPOLIITIKAS ON JUBA MÕJUTANUD
TURUINTRESSE
Prantsusmaa
Hispaania
Saksamaa
Itaalia
10A VÕLAKIRJADE INTRESSIMÄÄRAD (%)
Eesti
Allikas: Bloomberg.
29. EESTI PANGA MAJANDUSPROGNOOSI
PÕHINÄITAJAD
29
2020 2021 2022* 2023* 2024*
majanduse maht jooksevhindades (mld eurodes) 26,82 30,59 34,32 36,17 38,27
majanduskasv püsihindades (%) -2,6% 8,2% 1,5% 1,9% 3,1%
hinnatõus (%) -0,4% 4,6% 15,1% 4,3% 1,9%
töötus (%) 6,9% 6,2% 5,6% 6,8% 6,6%
keskmine brutopalk (eurodes) 1 448 1 547 1 713 1 854 1 966
keskmise palga muutus (%) 2,9% 6,8% 10,7% 8,2% 6,1%
Eelarvetasakaal (% SKPst) -5,6% -2,4% -3,7% -3,2% -3,0%
Märkus. Prognoos ei sisalda võimalikke erakordselt suuri rahvusvaheliste korporatsioonide tehinguid.
Allikad: statistikaamet, Eesti Pank.