The Economic Forum on July 18, 2022, addressed the state of the UK economy, highlighting a recovery in GDP and ongoing weaknesses in consumer-facing services amid high inflation. Discussions included trends in family spending, regional productivity, and the impact of COVID-19 on working patterns, with insights on how capital investment and productivity have remained subdued. The document emphasized the structural challenges facing the UK economy, including spatial inequalities and the volatile nature of productivity throughout the pandemic.

1. Economic Forum
18 July 2022
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2. Deputy Chief Economist
Economic and Microdata Insights
Office for National Statistics
Economic Forum
Chair – Ed Palmer
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3. Agenda
09:30 – 09:35 Welcome and introduction – Ed Palmer (Chair), Deputy Chief Economist, Office for National
Statistics
09:35 – 09:50 State of the UK Economy – Richard Heys, Deputy Chief Economist, Office for National
Statistics
09:50 – 10:05 Subnational insights
Homeworking in the UK – regional patterns: 2019 to 2022 – James Probert, Office for National
Statistics
Subnational regional productivity in the UK – Sebnem Oguz, Office for National Statistics
10:05 – 10:10 Family spending in the UK – April 2020 to March 2021 – Annemari de Silva and Arjun
Kharbanda, Office for National Statistics
10:10 – 10:15 Transforming consumer prices using new data for rail fares and second-hand cars – Helen
Sands, Office for National Statistics
10:15 – 10:35 Q&A
10:35 – 10:40 Closing remarks – Ed Palmer (Chair), Deputy Chief Economist, Office for National Statistics
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5. Deputy Chief Economist
Productivity, Investment, and Research
Division
Office for National Statistics
State of the UK Economy
July 2022
Richard Heys
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6. A recovery in GDP in May but consumer-facing
services continue to be weak
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
Oct
2021
Nov
2021
Dec
2021
Jan
2022
Feb
2022
Mar
2022
Apr
2022
May
2022
Contributions to monthly GDP growth, Oct
2021- May 2022, UK
Services Production Construction GDP
Source: ONS Source: ONS
-0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30
Sports Activities And Amusement And Recreation…
Retail Trade Except Of Motor Vehicles And Motorcycles
Food And Beverage Service Activities
Gambling And Betting Activities
Activities Of Households As Employers Of Domestic…
Activities Of Membership Organisations
Wholesale And Retail Trade And Repair Of Motor…
Buying and selling renting and operating of own or…
Veterinary Activities
Other Personal Service Activities
Rail transport
Travel Agency Tour Operator And Other Reservation…
Contributions to consumer-facing services,
Apr-May 2022
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7. Inflationary pressures are at 40-year highs
Source: ONS Source: ONS
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Jan-80
Jan-83
Jan-86
Jan-89
Jan-92
Jan-95
Jan-98
Jan-01
Jan-04
Jan-07
Jan-10
Jan-13
Jan-16
Jan-19
Jan-22
CPI, PPI: 12 month growth rate
CPI PPI (output)
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021 Q1 2022 Q1
Change in real disposable income, 2016Q1-
2022Q1
Gross Disposable Income Inflation
Real Disposable Income
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8. High prices are squeezing household budgets and
confidence
Source: ONS, GFK Source: ONS
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Borrow more money/use credit
Unable to save money in next 12
months
Trends in household finances, 6th Jan - 3Jul
2022
6-16 Jan 30 Mar -10 Apr 22 Jun - 3 Jul
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-45
-30
-15
0
15
Consumer confidence and behaviour, Jan
2016 - June 2022
GFK - Consumer Confidence Barometer
Retail Sales Index, month on month % change
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9. The business outlook continues to be subdued
Source: ONS Source: ONS
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Prices will stay the same
Prices will decrease
Prices will increase
Price Expectations, businesses currently
trading: June - August 2022
1 August - 31 August 1 July - 31 July 1 June - 30 June
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Expect turnover to stay the same
Expect turnover to increase
Expect turnover to decrease
Turnover expectations, businesses currently
trading: June - August 2022
1 August - 31 August 1 July - 31 July 1 June - 30 June
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10. Levels of capital investment remain subdued
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Japan
Germany
United Kingdom
France
G7 average
United States
Canada
Italy
G7 quarter on quarter GFCF growth, 2022
Q1 relative to 2019 Q4
Source: ONS Source: ONS, OECD
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
1997Q1 2003Q1 2009Q1 2015Q1 2021Q1
UK Investment, CVM, 1997Q1-2022Q1
GFCF Business Investment
1997Q1 = 100
Global financial crisis Coronavirus pandemic
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11. Productivity has been volatile throughout the
pandemic
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2019 Q1 2019 Q3 2020 Q1 2020 Q3 2021 Q1 2021 Q3 2022 Q1
Between and within-industry productivity growth, change from 2019
average, 2019Q1-2022Q1
Between industry re-allocation Within-industry productivity growth Output per hour worked
Period of coronavirus job Retention Scheme
Source: ONS, ONS calculations
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12. Short-term volatility does not change the long-term
productivity picture
Source: ONS, ONS calculations
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1997 Q1 2000 Q1 2003 Q1 2006 Q1 2009 Q1 2012 Q1 2015 Q1 2018 Q1 2021 Q1
Productivity, 1997Q1 - 2022Q1
output per hour pre-2007 trend post-2007 trend
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13. Conclusions
• GDP has performed better than expected in May,
although consumer-facing services remain weak
• Inflation remains a concern for households and
businesses
• Investment and productivity continue to be structural
challenges for the UK economy
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14. Office for National Statistics
Homeworking in the UK –
regional patterns: 2019 to
2022
James Probert
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15. Background: Labour Force Survey
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16. Homeworkers
Background: Labour Force Survey
Non-homeworkers Regional commuters
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17. Regional patterns Homeworkers
• UK: 108%
• Scotland: 203.5%
• Northern Ireland: 56.4%
Source: Labour Force Survey
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18. Non-homeworkers
Regional patterns
• UK: 19.7%
• London: 28.3%
• Northern Ireland: 8.7%
Source: Labour Force Survey
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19. Regional
commuters
Regional patterns
UK: 26.1%
London: 36.8%
Source: Labour
Force Survey
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20. Demographic differences
Source: Labour Force Survey
October to December 2019
• 16.5% men vs 12.3% women
January to March 2022
• 31.2% men vs 29.9% women
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21. Why does it matter?
Regional
commuters
Non-homeworkers
Source: Labour Force Survey
“West End”: 94%
“City Worker”: 86%
“Suburban”: 123%
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22. Office for National Statistics
Subnational Productivity
Sebnem Oguz
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23. Summary
• Spatial inequalities in productivity in the UK
• Trends in spatial productivity
• Impact of Covid-19 pandemic in 2020
• Related publications
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24. Things you need to know
• Labour productivity is calculated by dividing output (gross value added, GVA) by a
measure of labour input (total hours worked or jobs).
• Current prices – to assess differences between areas in the same year
• Chained volume measure – removes the effect of inflation to measure ‘real’ productivity –
useful for assessing time series trends for volume changes
• Geographical areas covered – ITL2, ITL3, Local Authority Districts, City Regions, Economic
Enterprise Regions
• Period covered - 2004 and 2020
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25. Subnational Productivity - Overview
• Long standing productivity differences between the UK regions
and countries
• Productivity differences within regions and between the
subregions are more significant than the regional differences
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26. The majority of ITL3 subregions with productivity above the UK average are located either in London or in the South East of England
region
Current price GVA per hour worked for all ITL3 subregions in Great Britain grouped by ITL1
regions and countries, smoothed, 2020, UK=100
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27. Around three-quarters of the ITL2 subregions and local authority districts had productivity
levels below the UK average
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28. Productivity trends since 2004
• Productivity increased in most subregions but not equally
• 12 out of 41 ITL2 subregions had higher than UK
average growth rate
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29. Spatial differences in labour productivity levels across the UK have changed little over the
period 2004 to 2020
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30. Impact of Covid 19 pandemic in 2020
• Substantial declines in GVA and hours worked but jobs declined very little
• Hours worked declined more than GVA – resulting in increases in productivity
 Positive growth in more than three quarters of the 41 ITL2 subregions and two thirds
of the 168 ITL3 subregions and some significant increases
• However, GVA per job measure declined in every subregion
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31. Related publications
Productivity in towns and travel to work areas, UK: 2019
Article | Released 30 March 2022
An analysis of labour productivity data for towns and travel to work areas (TTWAs) in the UK in 2019. Bringing
together our productivity estimates for specific geographies and new analysis exploring the industry structure of
towns.
Regional labour productivity, UK: 2020
Bulletin | Released 16 June 2022
Regional output per hour and output per job, and an experimental analysis of the performance of output per hour
levels and growth by industry and region.
Understanding spatial labour productivity in the UK
Article | Released 3 May 2019
Analysis of labour productivity across different areas of the UK, including discussion on the sources and drivers of
productivity differences between areas.
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32. Crime, Income & Wealth
Office for National Statistics
Family spending in the UK
April 2020 – March 2021
Annemari de Silva and Arjun
Kharbanda
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33. What is Family Spending?
• Analysis of annual statistics from Living Costs & Food Survey
• Weekly household expenditure on goods and services in the UK.
• Geographic coverage: UK
• Time period: FYE2021 (April 2020 to March 2021)
• Extensive data tables & a commentary
• Tables provide breakdowns by age, income, economic status, socio-economic class,
household composition and region
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34. Average weekly expenditure for all households dropped by £106.40
during this period; this is the largest annual fall observed in the last two
decades.
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35. Households on higher incomes have a greater capacity to save money
as a result of cut-backs in expenditure than lower income households.
£-
£200.00
£400.00
£600.00
£800.00
£1,000.00
£1,200.00
£1,400.00
£1,600.00
£1,800.00
£2,000.00
Bottom 2nd 3rd 4th Top
Mean Expenditure Mean Disposable Income
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36. Total expenditure decreased by £204.30 for the richest fifth compared to
£34.20 for the poorest fifth of households
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37. Recent ONS findings on spending
• Coronavirus (COVID-19) and its effects on household consumption,
UK: January 2020 to December 2021.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/article
s/coronaviruscovid19anditseffectsonhouseholdconsumptionuk/january2020t
odecember2021
• Public opinions and social trends, Great Britain.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing/bulletins/
publicopinionsandsocialtrendsgreatbritain/22juneto3july2022
• Contact: hie@ons.gov.uk
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38. Office for National Statistics
Transforming
consumer prices using
new data for rail fares
and second-hand cars
Helen Sands
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39. • Obtaining robust sources of alternative data, including
scanner data & web-scraping
• Researching methodologies to most effectively
incorporate the data
• Developing statistical systems for existing and new
data and methods
• Embedding new data, methods, systems into the
monthly business cycle
This will be a continuous programme
of improvements for consumer price statistics, allowing us
to improve the accuracy, efficacy and representativity of
consumer price inflation statistics.
Primarily, new data will help us to inform the narrative
around what is driving inflation for our users
Consumer Prices Transformation Project
Rail Delivery Group
(transaction) and Auto
Trader (web provided)
data (3% CPI)
Grocery
scanner data
(13% CPI)
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40. New UK data sources and methods
Rail fares transaction data
• Daily data feeds covering
all transactions
• One supplier for all of GB
• ~100% market coverage
Go live in 2023
Second-hand cars web data
• Daily data feeds covering
all advertisements
• One supplier for all of UK
• ~70% market coverage
Go live in 2023
Groceries scanner data
• Weekly/monthly feeds,
some data daily some weekly
• 3 (+) major supermarket chains
~50% market coverage
Go live in 2024
Beyond 2024: Investigating data and methods for household goods, gas & electricity,
clothing, technology goods, air fares, package holidays etc.
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41. New rail index show broadly similar trends on
aggregate to our published index...
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42. But offer greater insights…
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43. New second-hand cars index also show broadly
similar trends on aggregate...
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44. But again offer greater insights…
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45. Additional data-driven insights…
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21
Millions
Lockdown 1
Lockdown 2
Lockdown 3
Daily rail fares transactions (millions) Second-hand car listings (supply/demand proxies)
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21
Thousands
Millions
Supply (LHS) Demand (RHS)
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21
Growth in excess supply
Fall in excess supply
Lockdown 1
Lockdown 2
Lockdown 3
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46. Rolling Programme
Further capability for
priority categories
January
APCP review initial
methods and impacts
June
Prices transformation rolling timeline
Publication of research
indices using new data,
systems and methods
Changes highlighted in
annual correspondence
with BoE
October
Publication of final
impact analysis using
new data, systems
and methods
November
Final decision on go live
User events User events
APCP review final
methods/impacts
March
Publication of headline
indices using new data,
systems and methods
(February data)
2023: Rail fares & second hand cars
2024: Groceries, local collection & rents
2025: TBC (e.g. clothing, electricity/gas)
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47. Questions can be submitted via the slido app using code #34299
. You can also access slido via the link in the chat box.
Q&A

48. Deputy Chief Economist
Economic and Microdata Insights
Office for National Statistics
Closing remarks
Ed Palmer
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49. Census 2021 first results
Published the first results on Tuesday 28 June 2022
These are estimates of the number of people and households in England and
Wales and show the number of people by sex and age at local authority
level, rounded to the nearest 100
Now that we have published the first results, we will publish topic summaries
and facts and figures about areas in the rest of phase one
We will publish the first of our series of eight topic summaries in October
2022
For information about the results visit https://census.gov.uk/census-2021-
results
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50. Phase 2
Release of multivariate data based on usual resident
population, and start of Census 2021 analysis programme
Provision of microdata for linkage (IDS/SRS/SAIL)
Beyond
spring 2023
Phase 1
First results: population and household estimates
Univariate data and analysis by topic, and area profiles
Phase 3
Release of alternative population bases, small population
data, origin-destination data, microdata and
commissioned tables service
Release of UK data and further analytical products
28 June 2022
Winter
2022/2023
From
Spring 2023
Univariate
data
Multivariate
data
Bespoke,
safeguarded
and secure data
UK and
linked data
October to
Winter 2022
Relatively ‘static’
Build your
own datasets
Some filter
functionality
Census 2021 outputs release schedule
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51. Forthcoming ONS economic analysis
20 June 2022: Prices theme day
21 July 2022: UK trade in goods by business characteristics: 2016 to 2020
26 July 2022: Business Insights and Impact on the UK Single-Site Subnational Economy: July 2022
28 July 2022: Foreign direct investment by ultimate controlling economy, UK trends and analysis: July 2022
28 July 2022: Foreign direct investment distribution, UK trends and analysis: July 2022
2 August 2022: Foreign direct investment, business insights in the UK: June 2020 to January 2021
4 August 2022: Understanding earnings gaps for free school meals recipients in England: 2017 to 2019
22 August 2022: Impact of Blue Book 2022 changes on average quarterly gross domestic product
All information on upcoming analysis can be found via the ONS website
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52. Dates for your diary
8 September 2022 – Regional ONS Economic Forum (Derby) In person event
12 September 2022 – ONS Economic Forum
Further details on the above event and any upcoming events will be published at
ons.gov.uk/economicevents
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53. Thank you for attending the
Economic Forum
You can keep up to date on all up coming events via
ons.gov.uk/economicevents
If you would like to ask a question or provide any feedback, please do so
via economic.engagement@ons.gov.uk