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EY Price Point:
global oil and gas
market outlook
Q4 | October 2022
Q3 in review
Gary Donald
EY Global Oil & Gas Assurance Leader
gdonald@uk.ey.com
Saulius Adomaitis
EY Global Oil & Gas Leader
saulius.adomaitis@ae.ey.com
Q3 | July 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 2
In the third quarter of 2022, inflation, expectations regarding central bank polices, and the fallout on the
global macroeconomic environment took center stage. At the end of September, contracts for Brent crude
were trading at US$85/bbl and US$79/bbl respectively with a definite downward trend. At the beginning of the
quarter, those contracts were trading at US$120, and US$108. Notwithstanding that trend, multiple short-
term headwinds and the longer-term uncertainties related to energy decarbonization, the prices of crude
benchmarks remain above levels seen between the 2014-2015 downturn and the coronavirus pandemic.
Much of the pressure on crude oil prices can be attributed to the strength of the US Dollar relative to the
currencies of other large oil consumers. Since the beginning of the quarter, the Euro has lost 10% of its value
relative to the US Dollar and the Pound Sterling has lost almost 17%. There is no way to know how long that
trend will last. The UK and EU governments continue to struggle with the fallout from the war in Ukraine and
the effects on energy affordability. Nationalization initiatives and direct support to energy consumers will put a
continued strain on already stretched budgets, and we can expect pressure to monetize those deficits.
US gas markets tested the $10/MMBtu mark again this quarter on increased power sector demand and LNG
continues to trade below record highs seen in the wake of the Nordstream shutdown but above levels that are
sustainable. Crack spreads ended the quarter at elevated levels but less than half of where they peaked in
early June, when inventories fell to dangerously low levels.
?
Q4 theme
Q4 | October 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 3
The theme for this quarter is apprehension. In September, the US Federal Reserve announced a third 75 basis
point increase in the federal funds rate. In the aftermath, the two-year treasury rate reached the highest level
since before the 2008 financial crisis and the spread between two and ten-year rates went below negative 50
basis points for the first time since the early eighties. Equity markets have begun to price in the likelihood of a
recession and, if history is any indication, the impact on oil markets could be profound.
WTI prices fell by over 50% in the last two recessions, but recession is not a certainty. Employment data indicate
continued strength and if the global economy does contract, structural underinvestment in every link of the
petroleum value chain since the 2014-2015 downturn may get in the way of significant supply overhang. OPEC
members have consistently underproduced against their quotas in recent months and the organization recently
announced production cuts. The official sanctioning of Russian oil by EU countries later this year and the
possibility of reduced exports also provide something of a hedge against muted demand.
In Europe, there is no sign of a future in which natural gas shortages and unprecedented energy bills become a
memory. The war in Ukraine continues and withholding gas supplies appears to be a pillar of Russia’s strategy
to influence European public opinion. Government response to the crisis: price caps, windfall profit taxes and
utility company nationalization is mostly palliative and the financial market reaction has resulted in currency
depreciation and worries about a ratcheting up of inflation and ongoing economic troubles. In the US gas
market, prices are supportive of new investment but a major LNG export project has been put on hold for lack of
offtake contracts.
• Will interest rate policies engineered to reduce inflation tip the global economy into recession?
• If there’s a recession, how much will it impact oil and gas demand and will reduction in Russian supplies and OPEC
production discipline be enough to keep the market in balance?
• Will Europe’s response to the threat of reduced Russian natural gas supplies be enough to keep the economic
impact at tolerable levels and the hardship to people at a minimum?
Q4 trends
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 4 Q4 | October 2022
European energy
crisis lingers
Inflation
Reduction Act
alters the
landscape
Macroeconomic
uncertainties
dominate
Product market
pressures ease
Whatever doubt that the markets had
about US central bank determination to
bring inflation back to pre-pandemic
levels has been erased. Fears of
recession have begun to dominate the
narrative and risk to oil and gas markets
is heightened.
The spread between gasoline, heating
oil and crude oil prices reached record
levels as feedstock and product mixes
adjusted to the loss of Russian refining
capacity. Pressures appear to be
easing as trade flows continue to adjust.
In August, Joe Biden signed the
Inflation Reduction Act, a bill that
allocated more than US$300 billion
toward energy transition and climate
change initiatives. Among the
provisions are large increases in tax
credits available to direct air capture
developers.
Interruption of gas supplies from Russia
has become regarded as a certainty
rather than a risk. Shortages, elevated
prices and government response are
bound to affect the economic outlook.
Q4 | October 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 5
Market fundamentals
Oil market balance tilts towards surplus High interest rates may impact oil demand and deal volumes
• Central banks across the globe are committed to reducing inflation. In September the
US Federal Reserve raised its official short-term rate for the third time in as many
months by 75bp and the European Central Bank followed suit. Less apparent, but
equally important is the growth in money supply. Since January, the most commonly
used measure of liquidity in the economy, M2, has been essentially flat.
• Signals that the policies are working and clues as to when monetary policy will ease are
hard to find. The last readings on consumer prices showed a 8.3% year over year
increase in the US and a 9.1% increase in the Eurozone. Unemployment rates (3.7% in
the US and 6.6% in the Eurozone) reveal no sign of economic cooling.
• It is inevitable that tight money will impact commodity prices and deal activity in the oil
and gas sector. Oil prices are elevated but falling as traders assess the likelihood of
recession and falling oil demand while deal volumes, which have been supported by
cheap short-term financing, are down 35% in the third quarter of 2022.
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
-1
0
1
2
3
Jan/2019 Jan/2020 Jan/2021 Jan/2022
Yield
%
10 year bond yield
US Treasury 10 Year Bond Germany 10 Year Bond Japan 10 Year Bond (right axis)
Source: Capital IQ
Movement to oversupply
Movement to undersupply
Source: EIA
• From the beginning to the end of the third quarter, crude oil prices fell 17%, with WTI
moving from just over US$100/bbl to just over $US80/bbl. As always, a variety of
factors were at work, including real-time balance between supply and demand, inventory
levels and traders’ assessment of demand growth and the capacity (and willingness) of
producers to increase or decrease output.
• Crude oil demand increased marginally with increases Canada, US and Europe offset by
muted growth in China due to continued commitment to zero COVID. Although official
forecasts show growth in Q4 as China emerges from lockdowns, uncertainty looms as
recession fears grow.
• Crude oil supply increased by 2.3 mbpd driven by across-the-board increases. In the
here and now, drilling economics would seem to favor increased production, but OPEC
producers have undersupplied against their quotas in recent months and capital
discipline and reassessment of strategies continue to govern non-OPEC investment in
new supplies.
Q4 | October 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 6
Market fundamentals
Refinery spreads fall driven by rising inventories Inflation Reduction Act changes the game for CCUS
• In the thirty years prior to 2022, refining spreads touched US$30/bbl infrequently and
briefly and the economics of oil refining were under constant pressure. Siting refineries
became increasingly problematic and the possibility of falling product demand from
transportation electrification makes investment in new capacity difficult to rationalize.
• The war in Ukraine changed everything. The flow of crude oil feedstocks, blendstocks
and finished products had been engineered for a market landscape that was abruptly
changed, perhaps permanently, In June, crack spreads reached, US$57/bbl, lifting
profits and incentivizing refiners to defer maintenance and increase throughput.
• As always, markets have adjusted. In September, refinery utilization was running at
92%, higher than in 9 of the 10 years between 2010 and 2019. Gasoline stocks, which
were 30 million barrels below 2019 levels in June were within 7 million barrels of 2019
levels in September. Distillate stocks were on the rise at a time of year when they usually
fall. Spreads were US$35/bbl as the quarter ended.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan/22 Apr/22 Jul/22
3:2:1 Crack Spread (US$/bbl)
Source: Refinitiv
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Existing 45Q tax credit 45Q tax credit under the Inflation
Reduction Act
$/
metric
ton
• Oil and gas companies are challenged when it comes to energy decarbonization. For
companies to become carbon-neutral on a Scope 3 basis, they must scale down their
legacy petroleum production, refining and marketing businesses or find a way to
economically offset emissions.
• Carbon capture, utilization and sequestration has been studied as a logical, but so far
cost-prohibitive way to create those offsets and oil and gas companies have been on the
leading edge of research to improve the technology.
• In August, the Inflation Reduction Act, a bill that allocated more than US$S300 billion
toward energy transition and climate change initiatives became law. It provides large
increases in tax credits available to direct air capture developers and changes the rules
governing eligibility. Facilities are eligible for up to US$130/metric ton for captured
carbon used in enhanced oil recover or utilized in certain industrial applications and
US$180/metric ton for other geologically sequestered carbon.
Source: BakerHostetler
Q4 | October 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 7
Market fundamentals
Europe braces for the winter IOCs provide equity market haven
Source: Bruegel
• European gas and LNG markets remain at levels no one had contemplated before the end
of last year but the upward pressure has eased. TTF prices reached almost $100/MMBtu
in August and have fallen about 40%. Some stability has come as companies have firmed
up supply plans and conservation measures have been implemented.
• The potential impact of gas shortages in Europe are broad in scope. EU and UK
governments are under increasing pressure to provide support to consumers and the
fiscal impact of those measures will create additional layers of complexity to central bank
efforts to control inflation. Meanwhile, energy costs and physical supply shortfalls are
bound to impact European industries’ ability to maintain production and employment,
making policymakers’ problems that much more difficult.
• Storage sites are about 84% full, well ahead of last year’s levels and this year’s targets.
That being said, there is no amount of storage that can fully compensate for the loss of
Russian supplies and eliminate the risk of industrial disruption and economic (and
physical) hardship.
Source: Capital IQ
-4%
-15%
-10%
-25%
-11%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
IOC NA Independent Intl Independent OFS S&P 500
Share prices-June to September
• Financial markets have been in turmoil as monetary policy has tightened and interest
rates have crept upward. Investors have become increasingly concerned about recession
risks and broad equity prices have fallen in waves as conviction grows that the Federal
Reserve will not back away from long-standing inflation targets that had been shelved in
favor of policies designed to support government spending on pandemic relief programs.
• Oil stocks haven’t been immune. Independent producers have tracked the market as a
whole, reflecting the fall in crude oil prices, while oilfield service company shares have
been particularly hard hit, losing a quarter of their value. While profitability is improving,
energy transition is still on the horizon and their dependence on service-intensive
resources is a factor,
• IOCs, in contrast, have performed exceptionally well. Collectively, their operating profits
are four times what they were a year ago, long-standing underinvestment indicates
structural tightness in upstream markets for the time being and IOCs are well positioned
to lead the way in energy decarbonization.
10,000
30,000
50,000
70,000
90,000
110,000
Jan Apr Jul Oct
EU gas storage levels (mcm)
5 Year Min-Max 2021 2022
Brent crude
Q4 | October 2022
Page 8
Crude oil prices fell across the board
in Q3. Doubts about the global
economy and oil demand offset
questions about OPEC and Russian
production. Near-term supply risks
have inverted the forward curve.
Source: Refinitiv
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
$85
$90
11/2022 11/2023 11/2024 11/2025
/bbl
$80
$85
$90
$95
$100
$105
$110
$115
$120
7/2022 8/2022 9/2022
/bbl
WTI crude
Q4 | October 2022
Page 9
Source: Refinitiv
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
$75
$80
$85
$90
$95
$100
$105
$110
$115
7/2022 8/2022 9/2022
/bbl
$60
$62
$64
$66
$68
$70
$72
$74
$76
$78
11/2022 11/2023 11/2024 11/2025
/bbl
WTI discount to Brent peaked at over
US140/bbl (above the long-term
spread of $6/bbl) in August before
ending the quarter at just over
US$3/bbl as trade flows continue to
adjust to loss of Russian supplies
3:2:1 crack spreads
Q4 | October 2022
Page 10
Source: Refinitiv
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
7/2022 8/2022 9/2022
/bbl
$20
$22
$24
$26
$28
$30
$32
2022 2023 2024 2025
/bbl
Refining margins fell from record
levels throughout the quarter.
Higher than normal refinery
utilization and some softness in
demand have brought inventories to
more normal levels
Henry Hub natural gas
Q4 | October 2022
Page 11
Source: Refinitiv
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
7/1/2022 8/1/2022 9/1/2022
/MMBtu
$4
$5
$5
$6
$6
$7
$7
$8
$8
2022 2023 2024 2025
/MMBtu
US gas prices continue to follow
variation on power sector demand as
the weather changes. The forward
curve indicates near-term market
tightness
TTF natural gas
Q4 | October 2022
Page 12
Source: Refinitiv
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
7/1/2022 8/1/2022 9/1/2022
/MMBtu
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
2022 2023 2024 2025
/MMBtu
European gas prices peaked at over
US$100/MMBtu in reaction to
Nordstream 1 supply interruption.
Conservation has trimmed demand
and storage levels are above plan.
The forward curve indicates a fairly
rapid return to “normal”
Key contacts
Q4 | October 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 13
Important notice
Price outlook data included in this publication is effective as of 26 September 2022. Given the rapidly evolving nature of
the market and the views of market participants, an analysis can quickly become outdated. It should be noted that the
EY analysis is not for the purpose of providing an independent view of the outlook for oil and gas prices. Instead, we are
collating the views of market participants.
Price outlook data should not be applied mechanistically. Instead, careful consideration should be given to the purpose
of any value assessment, with price forecasts assessed in the context of other key assumptions, such as resources and
reserves classifications, production rates, discount rates and cost escalation rates, together with an appreciation of the
key sensitivities in any such analysis.
Gary Donald
EY Global Oil & Gas
Assurance Leader
+44 20 7951 7518
Derek Leith
EY Global Oil & Gas
Tax Leader
+44 1224 653 246
Saulius Adomaitis
EY Global Oil & Gas
Leader
Andy Brogan
EY Global Energy Gas
Strategy and Transactions
Leader
+44 20 7951 7009
Emma Sutton
EY Global Oil & Gas
Strategy Execution Leader
+44 20 7667 3025
Paul Bogenrieder
EY Global Lead Oil & Gas
Analyst
+1 813 508 1423
EY | Building a better working world
EY exists to build a better working world, helping create long-term value for
clients, people and society and build trust in the capital markets.
Enabled by data and technology, diverse EY teams in over 150 countries
provide trust through assurance and help clients grow, transform and
operate.
Working across assurance, consulting, law, strategy, tax and transactions, EY
teams ask better questions to find new answers for the complex issues facing
our world today.
EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the
member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate
legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by
guarantee, does not provide services to clients. Information about how EY
collects and uses personal data and a description of the rights individuals
have under data protection legislation are available via ey.com/privacy. EY
member firms do not practice law where prohibited by local laws. For more
information about our organization, please visit ey.com.
How EY’s Global Oil & Gas team can help you
As changing demand and pricing volatility transform the oil and gas industry,
companies must reshape to thrive in this new energy world. But how do you
balance the immediate cost and regulatory pressures of “now” with
investment in what comes “next”? EY’s Global Oil & Gas team brings together
the breadth of experience and talent needed to approach the entire
transformation process. By considering four key pillars of change — structure
and culture, customers, technology, and skills and capabilities — we can help
you adapt for today and reap the opportunities of tomorrow. And together we
can build a better working world.
© 2022 EYGM Limited.
All Rights Reserved.
EYG no. 008763-22Gbl
ED None
This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied
upon as accounting, tax, legal or other professional advice. Please refer to your advisors for specific
advice.
ey.com

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EY Price Point Q4 2022.pdf

  • 1. EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Q4 | October 2022
  • 2. Q3 in review Gary Donald EY Global Oil & Gas Assurance Leader gdonald@uk.ey.com Saulius Adomaitis EY Global Oil & Gas Leader saulius.adomaitis@ae.ey.com Q3 | July 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 2 In the third quarter of 2022, inflation, expectations regarding central bank polices, and the fallout on the global macroeconomic environment took center stage. At the end of September, contracts for Brent crude were trading at US$85/bbl and US$79/bbl respectively with a definite downward trend. At the beginning of the quarter, those contracts were trading at US$120, and US$108. Notwithstanding that trend, multiple short- term headwinds and the longer-term uncertainties related to energy decarbonization, the prices of crude benchmarks remain above levels seen between the 2014-2015 downturn and the coronavirus pandemic. Much of the pressure on crude oil prices can be attributed to the strength of the US Dollar relative to the currencies of other large oil consumers. Since the beginning of the quarter, the Euro has lost 10% of its value relative to the US Dollar and the Pound Sterling has lost almost 17%. There is no way to know how long that trend will last. The UK and EU governments continue to struggle with the fallout from the war in Ukraine and the effects on energy affordability. Nationalization initiatives and direct support to energy consumers will put a continued strain on already stretched budgets, and we can expect pressure to monetize those deficits. US gas markets tested the $10/MMBtu mark again this quarter on increased power sector demand and LNG continues to trade below record highs seen in the wake of the Nordstream shutdown but above levels that are sustainable. Crack spreads ended the quarter at elevated levels but less than half of where they peaked in early June, when inventories fell to dangerously low levels.
  • 3. ? Q4 theme Q4 | October 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 3 The theme for this quarter is apprehension. In September, the US Federal Reserve announced a third 75 basis point increase in the federal funds rate. In the aftermath, the two-year treasury rate reached the highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis and the spread between two and ten-year rates went below negative 50 basis points for the first time since the early eighties. Equity markets have begun to price in the likelihood of a recession and, if history is any indication, the impact on oil markets could be profound. WTI prices fell by over 50% in the last two recessions, but recession is not a certainty. Employment data indicate continued strength and if the global economy does contract, structural underinvestment in every link of the petroleum value chain since the 2014-2015 downturn may get in the way of significant supply overhang. OPEC members have consistently underproduced against their quotas in recent months and the organization recently announced production cuts. The official sanctioning of Russian oil by EU countries later this year and the possibility of reduced exports also provide something of a hedge against muted demand. In Europe, there is no sign of a future in which natural gas shortages and unprecedented energy bills become a memory. The war in Ukraine continues and withholding gas supplies appears to be a pillar of Russia’s strategy to influence European public opinion. Government response to the crisis: price caps, windfall profit taxes and utility company nationalization is mostly palliative and the financial market reaction has resulted in currency depreciation and worries about a ratcheting up of inflation and ongoing economic troubles. In the US gas market, prices are supportive of new investment but a major LNG export project has been put on hold for lack of offtake contracts. • Will interest rate policies engineered to reduce inflation tip the global economy into recession? • If there’s a recession, how much will it impact oil and gas demand and will reduction in Russian supplies and OPEC production discipline be enough to keep the market in balance? • Will Europe’s response to the threat of reduced Russian natural gas supplies be enough to keep the economic impact at tolerable levels and the hardship to people at a minimum?
  • 4. Q4 trends EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 4 Q4 | October 2022 European energy crisis lingers Inflation Reduction Act alters the landscape Macroeconomic uncertainties dominate Product market pressures ease Whatever doubt that the markets had about US central bank determination to bring inflation back to pre-pandemic levels has been erased. Fears of recession have begun to dominate the narrative and risk to oil and gas markets is heightened. The spread between gasoline, heating oil and crude oil prices reached record levels as feedstock and product mixes adjusted to the loss of Russian refining capacity. Pressures appear to be easing as trade flows continue to adjust. In August, Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, a bill that allocated more than US$300 billion toward energy transition and climate change initiatives. Among the provisions are large increases in tax credits available to direct air capture developers. Interruption of gas supplies from Russia has become regarded as a certainty rather than a risk. Shortages, elevated prices and government response are bound to affect the economic outlook.
  • 5. Q4 | October 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 5 Market fundamentals Oil market balance tilts towards surplus High interest rates may impact oil demand and deal volumes • Central banks across the globe are committed to reducing inflation. In September the US Federal Reserve raised its official short-term rate for the third time in as many months by 75bp and the European Central Bank followed suit. Less apparent, but equally important is the growth in money supply. Since January, the most commonly used measure of liquidity in the economy, M2, has been essentially flat. • Signals that the policies are working and clues as to when monetary policy will ease are hard to find. The last readings on consumer prices showed a 8.3% year over year increase in the US and a 9.1% increase in the Eurozone. Unemployment rates (3.7% in the US and 6.6% in the Eurozone) reveal no sign of economic cooling. • It is inevitable that tight money will impact commodity prices and deal activity in the oil and gas sector. Oil prices are elevated but falling as traders assess the likelihood of recession and falling oil demand while deal volumes, which have been supported by cheap short-term financing, are down 35% in the third quarter of 2022. -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 -1 0 1 2 3 Jan/2019 Jan/2020 Jan/2021 Jan/2022 Yield % 10 year bond yield US Treasury 10 Year Bond Germany 10 Year Bond Japan 10 Year Bond (right axis) Source: Capital IQ Movement to oversupply Movement to undersupply Source: EIA • From the beginning to the end of the third quarter, crude oil prices fell 17%, with WTI moving from just over US$100/bbl to just over $US80/bbl. As always, a variety of factors were at work, including real-time balance between supply and demand, inventory levels and traders’ assessment of demand growth and the capacity (and willingness) of producers to increase or decrease output. • Crude oil demand increased marginally with increases Canada, US and Europe offset by muted growth in China due to continued commitment to zero COVID. Although official forecasts show growth in Q4 as China emerges from lockdowns, uncertainty looms as recession fears grow. • Crude oil supply increased by 2.3 mbpd driven by across-the-board increases. In the here and now, drilling economics would seem to favor increased production, but OPEC producers have undersupplied against their quotas in recent months and capital discipline and reassessment of strategies continue to govern non-OPEC investment in new supplies.
  • 6. Q4 | October 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 6 Market fundamentals Refinery spreads fall driven by rising inventories Inflation Reduction Act changes the game for CCUS • In the thirty years prior to 2022, refining spreads touched US$30/bbl infrequently and briefly and the economics of oil refining were under constant pressure. Siting refineries became increasingly problematic and the possibility of falling product demand from transportation electrification makes investment in new capacity difficult to rationalize. • The war in Ukraine changed everything. The flow of crude oil feedstocks, blendstocks and finished products had been engineered for a market landscape that was abruptly changed, perhaps permanently, In June, crack spreads reached, US$57/bbl, lifting profits and incentivizing refiners to defer maintenance and increase throughput. • As always, markets have adjusted. In September, refinery utilization was running at 92%, higher than in 9 of the 10 years between 2010 and 2019. Gasoline stocks, which were 30 million barrels below 2019 levels in June were within 7 million barrels of 2019 levels in September. Distillate stocks were on the rise at a time of year when they usually fall. Spreads were US$35/bbl as the quarter ended. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Jan/22 Apr/22 Jul/22 3:2:1 Crack Spread (US$/bbl) Source: Refinitiv 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Existing 45Q tax credit 45Q tax credit under the Inflation Reduction Act $/ metric ton • Oil and gas companies are challenged when it comes to energy decarbonization. For companies to become carbon-neutral on a Scope 3 basis, they must scale down their legacy petroleum production, refining and marketing businesses or find a way to economically offset emissions. • Carbon capture, utilization and sequestration has been studied as a logical, but so far cost-prohibitive way to create those offsets and oil and gas companies have been on the leading edge of research to improve the technology. • In August, the Inflation Reduction Act, a bill that allocated more than US$S300 billion toward energy transition and climate change initiatives became law. It provides large increases in tax credits available to direct air capture developers and changes the rules governing eligibility. Facilities are eligible for up to US$130/metric ton for captured carbon used in enhanced oil recover or utilized in certain industrial applications and US$180/metric ton for other geologically sequestered carbon. Source: BakerHostetler
  • 7. Q4 | October 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 7 Market fundamentals Europe braces for the winter IOCs provide equity market haven Source: Bruegel • European gas and LNG markets remain at levels no one had contemplated before the end of last year but the upward pressure has eased. TTF prices reached almost $100/MMBtu in August and have fallen about 40%. Some stability has come as companies have firmed up supply plans and conservation measures have been implemented. • The potential impact of gas shortages in Europe are broad in scope. EU and UK governments are under increasing pressure to provide support to consumers and the fiscal impact of those measures will create additional layers of complexity to central bank efforts to control inflation. Meanwhile, energy costs and physical supply shortfalls are bound to impact European industries’ ability to maintain production and employment, making policymakers’ problems that much more difficult. • Storage sites are about 84% full, well ahead of last year’s levels and this year’s targets. That being said, there is no amount of storage that can fully compensate for the loss of Russian supplies and eliminate the risk of industrial disruption and economic (and physical) hardship. Source: Capital IQ -4% -15% -10% -25% -11% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% IOC NA Independent Intl Independent OFS S&P 500 Share prices-June to September • Financial markets have been in turmoil as monetary policy has tightened and interest rates have crept upward. Investors have become increasingly concerned about recession risks and broad equity prices have fallen in waves as conviction grows that the Federal Reserve will not back away from long-standing inflation targets that had been shelved in favor of policies designed to support government spending on pandemic relief programs. • Oil stocks haven’t been immune. Independent producers have tracked the market as a whole, reflecting the fall in crude oil prices, while oilfield service company shares have been particularly hard hit, losing a quarter of their value. While profitability is improving, energy transition is still on the horizon and their dependence on service-intensive resources is a factor, • IOCs, in contrast, have performed exceptionally well. Collectively, their operating profits are four times what they were a year ago, long-standing underinvestment indicates structural tightness in upstream markets for the time being and IOCs are well positioned to lead the way in energy decarbonization. 10,000 30,000 50,000 70,000 90,000 110,000 Jan Apr Jul Oct EU gas storage levels (mcm) 5 Year Min-Max 2021 2022
  • 8. Brent crude Q4 | October 2022 Page 8 Crude oil prices fell across the board in Q3. Doubts about the global economy and oil demand offset questions about OPEC and Russian production. Near-term supply risks have inverted the forward curve. Source: Refinitiv EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook $60 $65 $70 $75 $80 $85 $90 11/2022 11/2023 11/2024 11/2025 /bbl $80 $85 $90 $95 $100 $105 $110 $115 $120 7/2022 8/2022 9/2022 /bbl
  • 9. WTI crude Q4 | October 2022 Page 9 Source: Refinitiv EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook $75 $80 $85 $90 $95 $100 $105 $110 $115 7/2022 8/2022 9/2022 /bbl $60 $62 $64 $66 $68 $70 $72 $74 $76 $78 11/2022 11/2023 11/2024 11/2025 /bbl WTI discount to Brent peaked at over US140/bbl (above the long-term spread of $6/bbl) in August before ending the quarter at just over US$3/bbl as trade flows continue to adjust to loss of Russian supplies
  • 10. 3:2:1 crack spreads Q4 | October 2022 Page 10 Source: Refinitiv EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 $55 7/2022 8/2022 9/2022 /bbl $20 $22 $24 $26 $28 $30 $32 2022 2023 2024 2025 /bbl Refining margins fell from record levels throughout the quarter. Higher than normal refinery utilization and some softness in demand have brought inventories to more normal levels
  • 11. Henry Hub natural gas Q4 | October 2022 Page 11 Source: Refinitiv EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 $10 7/1/2022 8/1/2022 9/1/2022 /MMBtu $4 $5 $5 $6 $6 $7 $7 $8 $8 2022 2023 2024 2025 /MMBtu US gas prices continue to follow variation on power sector demand as the weather changes. The forward curve indicates near-term market tightness
  • 12. TTF natural gas Q4 | October 2022 Page 12 Source: Refinitiv EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 7/1/2022 8/1/2022 9/1/2022 /MMBtu $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 $55 $60 2022 2023 2024 2025 /MMBtu European gas prices peaked at over US$100/MMBtu in reaction to Nordstream 1 supply interruption. Conservation has trimmed demand and storage levels are above plan. The forward curve indicates a fairly rapid return to “normal”
  • 13. Key contacts Q4 | October 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 13 Important notice Price outlook data included in this publication is effective as of 26 September 2022. Given the rapidly evolving nature of the market and the views of market participants, an analysis can quickly become outdated. It should be noted that the EY analysis is not for the purpose of providing an independent view of the outlook for oil and gas prices. Instead, we are collating the views of market participants. Price outlook data should not be applied mechanistically. Instead, careful consideration should be given to the purpose of any value assessment, with price forecasts assessed in the context of other key assumptions, such as resources and reserves classifications, production rates, discount rates and cost escalation rates, together with an appreciation of the key sensitivities in any such analysis. Gary Donald EY Global Oil & Gas Assurance Leader +44 20 7951 7518 Derek Leith EY Global Oil & Gas Tax Leader +44 1224 653 246 Saulius Adomaitis EY Global Oil & Gas Leader Andy Brogan EY Global Energy Gas Strategy and Transactions Leader +44 20 7951 7009 Emma Sutton EY Global Oil & Gas Strategy Execution Leader +44 20 7667 3025 Paul Bogenrieder EY Global Lead Oil & Gas Analyst +1 813 508 1423
  • 14. EY | Building a better working world EY exists to build a better working world, helping create long-term value for clients, people and society and build trust in the capital markets. Enabled by data and technology, diverse EY teams in over 150 countries provide trust through assurance and help clients grow, transform and operate. Working across assurance, consulting, law, strategy, tax and transactions, EY teams ask better questions to find new answers for the complex issues facing our world today. EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. Information about how EY collects and uses personal data and a description of the rights individuals have under data protection legislation are available via ey.com/privacy. EY member firms do not practice law where prohibited by local laws. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com. How EY’s Global Oil & Gas team can help you As changing demand and pricing volatility transform the oil and gas industry, companies must reshape to thrive in this new energy world. But how do you balance the immediate cost and regulatory pressures of “now” with investment in what comes “next”? EY’s Global Oil & Gas team brings together the breadth of experience and talent needed to approach the entire transformation process. By considering four key pillars of change — structure and culture, customers, technology, and skills and capabilities — we can help you adapt for today and reap the opportunities of tomorrow. And together we can build a better working world. © 2022 EYGM Limited. All Rights Reserved. EYG no. 008763-22Gbl ED None This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax, legal or other professional advice. Please refer to your advisors for specific advice. ey.com