This document summarizes a study on future water availability and food security in the Nile Basin. Population growth is increasing food demand substantially by 2025. The study models three scenarios for meeting this demand: national priorities, upstream control, and basin cooperation. Basin cooperation through improved rainfed agriculture, irrigation, hydropower, and food trade could increase agricultural production by 38% and gross profits by $1154 million, better satisfying needs across the region. Stabilizing political relations and optimizing water allocation over space and time are keys to ensuring long-term food security for all Nile Basin countries.

1. Future Water Availability and Food Security:
The case of the Nile Basin
Eddy Moors
Christian Siderius, Hester Biemans, Iwan Supit, Van Walsum, Smit, Roest, Van Ierland,
Hellegers, Kabat
Contact:
eddy.moors@wur.nl

2. The Nile

3. Changes between 1970-1999 and 2070-
2099 based on RCP4.5
Delta Rain April-June (mm)

4. Changes between 1970-1999 and 2070-
2099 based on RCP4.5
Delta number of wet days
Delta Rain April-
June (mm)

5. Changes between 1970-1999 and 2070-
2099 based on RCP4.5
Delta number
of wet days
Delta Rain
April-June (mm)
Delta length largest period consecutive dry days

6. ETHIOPIA:
Ministers suspend
talks, while praising
outcomes so far
EGYPT: Minister
says Megech dam
will not affect
Egypt’s water
supplies
“Egypt & Sudan
outraged by
Ethiopia's Blue Nile
Dam”
EGYPT: Minister
dismisses Ethiopian
dam work
“Egypt
internationalizes
dam dispute with
Ethiopia” AL
monitor, Feb 23,
2014
“Egypt FM hails
'positive' Tanzanian
stance on Ethiopia
dam” Ahram online,
23, 2014
“Ethiopia Rejects
Egypt Proposal on
Nile as Dam Talks
Falter” Bloomberg,
Jan 8, 2014
“No deal in Nile
River trilateral
negotiations” Daily
News Egypt, Jan 5,
2014
The Nile
1959 Water allocation treaty: 55.5 BCM for Egypt,
10 BCM evaporation losses, 18.5 BCM for Sudan

7. Countries are not food self-sufficient
Sudan
South Sudan
Ethiopia
Eritrea
Rwanda
Burundi
Kenya
Tanzania
Uganda
Congo

8. Population increases
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
Population(million)

9. Food security high on the political agenda

10. The solution lies here

11. WaterWise Nile - objective function
Y = YLU − CLWM + YHP −CRWM
 Y represents total benefits (USD/yr),
 YLU gross margin of land use (USD/yr),
 CLWM costs of local water management measures for supporting land use
(USD/yr),
 YHP gross margin of hydropower (USD/yr),
 CRWM costs of regional water management for supporting the river, canal and
reservoir system (USD/yr).
Constrained by available land and water resources and a predefined
budget

12. Visibility
Critical mass
Continuity
Track record

13. Options in the Nile basin
 Land use change
 New hydropower reservoirs
 Irrigation expansion
● Groundwater irrigation
● Local surface water irrigation
● Nile irrigation
 Conservation measures

14. Modules
 Water module (hydrology)
 Food module (crop production)
 Energy module (hydropower)

15. Hydrology
module
 Bucket-type
 1 km resolution
 FAO Aquacrop approach

16. Crop module
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Production(%)
ETact/ETpot -200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
GrossMargin(USD/ha)
ETact/ETpot
MaizePotato (Intensive)
MaizePotato
 De Wit, Wageningen 1959
 Gross Margin
GM = Etact/Etpot(-) * maximum yield(tons/ha) * prices(USD/ton) – costs(USD/ha)

17. Hydropower module
 Yield linear function of discharge until a certain maximum turbine
capacity
 0.08 USD / KWh
Country Hydropower station Investment
(million USD)
Capacity
(MW)
Maximum discharge
(m3/s)
Uganda Owen Falls Existing 300 1800
Ethiopia Tis Abbay I&II, Tana - Beles Existing 544 180
Sudan Roseires Existing 210 1689
Egypt Aswan Old Dam and High Dam Existing 2600 4152
Uganda Bujugali 730 250 1316
Uganda Kalagala 680 315 1344
Uganda Karuma Falls 450 200 577
Uganda Ayago, Murchison 1000 800 400
Ethiopia Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam 4700 5250 1750
Sudan Merowe 1700 1250 3600

18. Internal mechanism I: Water productivity

19. Internal mechanism II: Rain and ETpot

20. Results – 3 scenarios (2005 - 2025)
• 76% increase in production needed
• Egypt can gain some but loose a lot
• Sudan (including South Sudan) and Uganda are key players
In gross margin (GM in million USD)
National Food Self-Sufficiency Upstream Hegemony Basin Cooperation
Country
Contribution of
irrigation to food
self-sufficiency
Overall food
self-sufficiency
Contribution of
irrigation to food
self-sufficiency
Overall food self-
sufficiency
Contribution of
irrigation to food
self-sufficiency
Overall food self-
sufficiency
Egypt 85% 85% 50% 50% 78% 78%
Ethiopia 16% 100% 16% 87% 16% 92%
Sudan ~0% 100% 56% 154% 36% 136%
Uganda 0% 100% 0% 113% 0% 112%
Other 0% 66% 0% 102% 0% 99%
Basin 27% 92% 35% 102% 38% 107%

21. 1566 million USD
172 million USD
623 million USD 1154 million USD
210 million USD
Increase in agricultural gross margin (in
USD/ha per year) between 2005 and
2025
Results

22. Conclusions
A different water allocation and improved irrigation can contribute up to
25% of the needed increase in production,
but the future of food security in the Nile basin lies in utilizing the vast
(forgotten) potential of rainfed agriculture in the upstream interior.
Rainfed agriculture can cover more than 75% of the needed increase in
food production by the year 2025.
Stabilizing regions and strengthening intra-basin cooperation via food
trade seem to be better strategies than unilateral expansion of irrigation.

23. Thank you
Contact:
eddy.moors@wur.nl

24. Points for discussion
 Demand management
 Optimising allocation (not only in space, but also in time)
 Sustainable water use (based on the “natural” limits and
added with storage potential based on a long term risk
assessment of droughts).
 Precision agriculture, CSA