Presented by G. Pitois at the Global Water Systems Project Water in the Anthropocene Conference in Bonn, Germany May 21-24th

1. Bioenergy or Hydropower
–
Implication for Water and Food
Gauthier Pitois
International Food Policy Research
Institute
―Water in the Anthropocene‖
GWSP Conference
May 2013, Bonn, Germany

2. Motivation
 Growing energy demands of wealthier, more urban
populations
 Demand can be met from HP, biofuels, or other traditional
and nontraditional energy sources—all energy development
requires some water; and some energy sources need a lot
 In addition, agriculture is increasingly energy-intensive
(including about 40% of food produced from groundwater)
and biofuel development competes with food for land and
water
 Climate change is a further complication on the water-
energy picture
 The result is increasing competition for water across
sectors under growing uncertainty

3. Growing water intensity of energy production
Source: World Energy Outlook, 2012
HP is not considered to withdraw or consume water, but this energy source
has a multitude of water impacts

4. Price Linkage (Food – Biofuel)
Source: D.K. Albino, C. Freidman and Y. Bar-Yam, Global Security and the RFS. NECSI
Report 2013-04-01

5. Map of storage

6. Total and per Capita Storage
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Storage (bcm) Per-Cap. Ratio (bcm/cap)
Source: GWSP Digital Water Atlas (2008). Map 81: GRanD Database (V1.0)
Note: Storage
currently
increasing in
Asia, SSA and
some LAC.

7. Hydropower Generation (20% of total energy
generation)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
50
100
150
200
250
Capacity (mil. kW) Generation (bil. kWh)
Source: U.S. EIA, 2013

8. Linkage Storage-Hydropower Capacity
Sources: GWSP Digital Water Atlas (2008). Map 81: GRanD Database (V1.0)
U.S. EIA, 2013

9. Scenarios linking water with energy and food
1) Business as usual (BAU) versus Bioeconomy scenario:
economic growth driven by the development of renewable
biological resources and biotechnologies to produce
sustainable products, employment and income
-> Increase in agricultural R&D / crop productivity
growth; Impact of faster technological change -
commercial scale second generation biofuels start 5
years earlier--reducing demand for first generation
feedstocks; increased WUE across irrigation, HHs &
industry); lower fertilizer input
2) BAU versus increased storage & irrigation, gradual change
out to 2050: 50% more storage; 25% more storage + 12.5%
more irrigation; 50% more storage + 25% more irrigation

10. IMPACT – Partial Equilibrium Agricultural
Sector Model

11. S.1-- Percent Change in World Prices of
Cereals between 2010 and 2050, BAU
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Rice Wheat Maize Other Grains Millet Sorghum
PercentChange
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, 2012 Simulations

12. S.1 --Irrigation water supply reliability under BAU and
Bioeconomy in 2000, 2030, 2050
Region 2000
2030 2050
BAU BIO BAU BIO
East Asia & Pacific 0.754 0.631 0.714 0.554 0.675
Eastern Europe & Central Asia 0.668 0.617 0.666 0.515 0.655
Latin America & Caribbean 0.911 0.933 0.954 0.936 0.973
Middle East & North Africa 0.986 0.975 0.978 0.972 0.975
South Asia 0.706 0.622 0.679 0.517 0.645
Sub-Saharan Africa 0.825 0.747 0.785 0.715 0.780
North America 0.978 0.984 0.990 0.987 1.000
NAFTA 0.983 0.988 0.993 0.991 1.000
Europe Developed 0.974 0.997 0.999 0.994 0.996
Developed 0.958 0.961 0.972 0.956 0.982
Developing 0.749 0.670 0.728 0.592 0.705
World 0.766 0.692 0.747 0.619 0.726
IWSR - ratio of annual irrigation water supply to demand.
Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections (2012).

13. Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, 2012 Simulations
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Rice Wheat Maize Other
Grains
Millet Sorghum
PercentChange
S.1--Percent Change in World Prices of Cereals
between BAU and Bioeoconomy Scenario, 2050

14. Percent Change in World Market Prices Under
Increase in Irrigation (+12.5%) and Storage (+25%)
Source : IFPRI IMPACT Model, 2013 simulations
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Rice Wheat Maize Soybean Cotton

15. Percent Change in World Market Prices Under Incr.
Irrigation (+25%) and Storage (+50%) by 2050
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Rice Wheat Maize Soybean Cotton
Source : IFPRI IMPACT Model, 2013 simulations

16. Conclusions
 Bioeconomy scenario—conserving energy and
water in agriculture (here reduced fertilizer
input; and water use efficiency improvements)
can be achieved through agricultural R&D and
knowledge-intensive agriculture
 Increase in storage alone has limited impacts
on global food prices; but storage development
together with irrigation expansion significantly
reduces global food prices
 Additional benefits from storage through energy
generation and reduction of price volatility

17. Policy Recommendations
 Rise in real prices of natural resources increases
importance of market-based approaches for
managing environmental services (water
pricing, water markets, PES)
 Increased and better-managed investment in
hydropower development
 Modernize crop water productivity breeding
programs in developing countries through provision
of genomics, high throughput gene-
sequencing, bio-informatics and computer tools.

18. Future Additions to Models
 IMPACT
− Integrate storage and hydropower infrastructure
scenarios
− Account for energy use in groundwater pumping for
irrigation
− Account for water shortages affecting the energy sector
(during dry years) in terms of power output reduction
− Refine energy consumption associated with water
demand
− Assess the impact of storage to manage variability
 Energy sector model
− Analyze trade-offs across the energy—food divide using
a water lens